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Showdowns In2010 38 POLITICO TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2009 PREVIEW: Treacherous Landscape TO E MOST INTERESTING D I ’ GU S SHOWDOWNS IN 10BY CHARLES MAHTESIAN 2010 With a combined total of more than 500 House, Senate and gubernatorial races next year, it’s hard to cut through the spin to figure out which ones are worth watching. Here is POLITICO’s list of 10 contests to keep an eye on, IEWER V whether it’s because they are uniquely revealing, particularly significant — or simply impending train wrecks. NEVADA PENNSYLVANIA FLORIDA ILLINOIS TEXAS SENATE SENATE SENATE SENATE GOVERNOR OK, OK. So Senate Majority No incumbent in the House The Republican primary here In the GOP primary, front- All the best action in Leader Harry Reid’s reelection or Senate has a longer or between Gov. Charlie Crist and runner Rep. Mark Kirk faces this race will take place in isn’t a replay of former Senate tougher road to reelection than former state House Speaker resistance from conservatives. the bitter GOP primary, in Majority Leader Tom Daschle’s Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter. Marco Rubio is likely to be more In the Democratic primary, which Gov. Rick Perry faces unsuccessful 2004 campaign. First, there’s a primary against interesting than the general front-runner state Treasurer a challenge from Sen. Kay Different state dynamics; weaker Rep. Joe Sestak, a tenacious and election. Alexi Giannoulias has not yet Bailey Hutchison. opposition; and lessons learned. well-funded campaigner who is Tea party activists have won over his own party. There is a deep reservoir But it’s still likely to be the challenging Specter’s Democratic already signaled that they view While the February primary of animosity between the marquee race of 2010. This high- credentials. Then comes a this race as the next N.Y. 23, — the earliest in the nation — two leading statewide stakes contest will be drenched grueling general election against the Nov. 3 special election will settle all those questions Republicans, which means the in national money, and both former Republican Rep. Pat where the conservative grass and leave plenty of time for race will be nasty, brutish and parties will stop at nothing to Toomey, another well-funded and roots revolted against the GOP healing, there are several expensive. achieve their desired outcome. experienced candidate who’s establishment’s candidate. other X factors that make this Hutchison, one of the All the polling in the race already run against Specter Crist, whose poll ratings race so compelling. state’s most popular pols, has signals that Reid is in serious before — he narrowly lost to have lagged recently, is a There’s impeached been slow out of the gate. And trouble, but that doesn’t Specter in a 2004 GOP primary. prolific fundraiser and a skillful Democratic Gov. Rod she hasn’t ever run a race mean there’s no clear path to Specter doesn’t exactly retail campaigner. But a Blagojevich, whose quite like this one. Perry, on reelection for the four-term cultivate a warm and fuzzy image, February event with President shenanigans threw this seat the other hand, is a veteran Democratic incumbent. A so don’t expect either Sestak or Barack Obama during which into play — he’s slated to go of smash-mouth contests, handful of Republicans are vying Toomey to pull their punches. And he embraced the stimulus to trial next year. You can bet having won a 2002 campaign for a chance to take him on, as a party switcher, Specter is package has turned into an it will be a circus that will not in which his Democratic but the GOP struggled to come going to face withering attacks on albatross in his bid for the reflect favorably on Illinois opponent spent $67 million to up with a well-known, top-tier his character. nomination. Democrats. his $28 million. opponent. That may be because In his corner, however, are Rubio, a talented candidate Then there’s the Chicago Reid is widely recognized as a two formidable allies: the White in his own right, has every mafia in the White House — fierce opponent, and he’ll have House, which has an interest intention of reminding they aren’t about to give up all the money he needs to run in sending a message to Republicans of Crist’s heresy, the president’s old Senate the campaign he wants. prospective party switchers, and giving this contest all the seat without a fight. the Democratic establishment in makings of a GOP civil war. Pennsylvania. STATUS Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Tossup Tossup Likely Republican Tossup Likely Republican Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Tossup Narrow Democratic advantage Clear Republican advantage Tossup Currently safe THE TARGET THE PARTY SWITCHER THE FRONT-RUNNER THE PRESIDENt’S SEAT THE CLASH Sen. Harry Reid (D) Sen. Arlen Specter (D) Gov. Charlie Crist (R) Rep. Mark Kirk (R) Gov. Rick Perry (R) 59 Age: 69 Age: 79 Age: 53 Age: 50 Age: Austin Home: Searchlight Home: Philadelphia Home: St. Petersburg Home: Highland Park Home: Assumed office First elected: 1986 First elected: 1980 First elected: 2006 First elected: 2000 First elected: Dec. 2000 Term: 4th Term: 5th Term: 1st Term: 5th Term: 2nd full term REID FAVORABILITY SPECTER FAVORABILITY CRIST APPROVAL POLL: PERRY APPROVAL Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Excellent/Good Have Illinois politicians done enough Approve to clean up politics in the state? Unfavorable Undecided Don’t know Fair/Poor Disapprove No opinion Don’t know Yes Neither approve/disapprove 28% Don’t know 35% 42% No 46% Not sure 36% 54% 55% 13% 6% 44% 11% 4% 13% 89% 15% Source: PCCC (D)/Research 2000, Oct. 17-19; 600 likely voters Source: Franklin & Marshall College Poll, 5% 6% Oct. 20-25; 616 adults OBAMA APPROVAL OBAMA APPROVAL OBAMA APPROVAL OBAMA APPROVAL OBAMA APPROVAL Excellent/Good Approve Approve Fair/Poor Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove Don’t know Disapprove Disapprove Not sure Not sure Not sure Neither approve/disapprove 46% 46% 51% 56% 41% 51% 53% 48% 44% 52% 2% 1% 1% 1% 7% Source: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/ Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 14; Source: Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 13; Bay News 9 poll; Oct. 25-28; 600 registered Source: Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 14; 500 Source: University of Texas/Texas Tribune, 500 likely voters (IVR) 1,000 likely voters (IVR) voters likely voters (IVR) Oct. 20-27; 800 registered voters FAST FACT FAST FACT FAST FACT FAST FACT FAST FACT Reid lost his first bid for the Senate Specter lost in the Republican In 1998, Crist challenged then- The last two Republican Senate Perry, who succeeded George W. in 1974 by 628 votes. primary in his first Senate bid in Sen. Bob Graham (D) and lost by nominees in Illinois have failed Bush as governor in December 1976. Four years later, he ran 62 percent to 38 percent. to break 30 percent in the 2000, has served longer than again for the Senate and won. general election. any other governor in Texas history..
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