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Home , Alexi Giannoulias, Arlen Specter, Jean Carnahan, Paul Hodes, Rasmussen Reports

ELECTION 2010 ELECTION 2010

The 2010 Senate landscape is almost evenly split down the middle: Republicans will be defending 18 seats, while Democrats will be defending 19 seats, including the January special election in Massachusetts. The Senate Watchlist By Ch a r l e s Ma h t e s i a n Connecticut Nevada ARkansas Colorado Louisiana California North Carolina

WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH

Chris Dodd, a five-term Democrat, is arguably The only thing stopping Senate Majority Leader In a state where John McCain crushed Barack Democrat Michael Bennet, appointed Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter faces what may Just when it looked like GOP Sen. David Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer won a There’s no scandal or silver-bullet issue. He’s the party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbent — Harry Reid from being rated as the most vulnerable Obama by 20 points in 2008 and where polls show to the Senate seat left vacant when Ken be the toughest election of his Senate career, Vitter might weather the scandal surrounding second term in 1998 by 10 percentage points reasonably well-funded. And unlike former GOP just look at the lengthy list of Republicans who are Democratic senator is the quality of his opposition. voters are deeply skeptical of Obama’s health care Salazar became interior secretary, has two which is saying something given the long arc of his the revelation that he was a client of a and a third in 2004 by 20 points. colleague Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who lost by a champing at the bit to take him on. Republicans struggled for months to come up plan, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln has little tough races ahead of him in 2010. tenure in office. Washington prostitution ring, Democratic Still, Republicans convincing margin in 2008, Sen. Dodd has experienced marked improvement in with a top-tier challenger to Reid, despite his anemic room for error in her bid for a third term. The first is the August primary, where Before he can claim a sixth Rep. Charlie Melancon announced he would remain convinced that her has been attentive to the state. his poll ratings in recent months, a development no ratings in the polls. Now the GOP has at least three According to a late September Rasmussen poll, he’ll face former state House Speaker term, Specter must defeat challenge Vitter in 2010, ensuring that the polarizing style and liberal Yet Burr’s approval ratings are lagging, and doubt assisted by the Senate Ethics Committee’s prospective challengers — former state Republican she trails all four of her Republican opponents. Andrew Romanoff, a talented young pol who tenacious and cash-flush Rep. first-term conservative would get top-tier voting record make her it’s got Democrats convinced they can deny him August dismissal of complaints alleging that Dodd Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, state Sen. Mark And the poll shows her trailing state Sen. Gilbert was bypassed for the appointment. in the May primary, opposition. vulnerable in 2010. a second term in 2010. and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) had received special Amodei and businessman Danny Tarkanian — but Baker by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent. Baker Much of the state Democratic then knock off Republican Democrats have The GOP has recruited While the field isn’t set yet, Democrats already mortgage deals from Countrywide Financial. none of them has ever run a race quite like this or has emerged as an early front-runner for the establishment has lined up behind Bennet former Rep. . already signaled that they a heavyweight challenger have one well-known challenger planning to Yet the committee also noted that the two against a smash-mouth opponent quite like Reid. Republican nomination. — as has the White House, which sought to Sestak The Harrisburg and consider the prostitution Fiorina in former Hewlett-Packard run: Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, the should have “exercised more vigilance" to avoid If the GOP nominee turns out to be equal to the Lincoln, however, is well-prepared to stave off dissuade Romanoff from running — but in Washington Democratic scandal fair game, while CEO Carly Fiorina, but first woman elected to statewide office in North the appearance that they received preferential task, the general election may end up resembling the opposition. short order Romanoff has already picked up establishments are lined up Vitter has indicated that Fiorina has stumbled out of the gate, and it’s Carolina. treatment, so the issue isn’t entirely wiped away. the epic 2004 South Dakota battle between then- She raised nearly $4.6 million for her campaign a few Democratic endorsements. behind Specter, but that’s not Sestak’s audience President not clear how much of her own money she’ll According to a recent poll, Marshall trails Burr Leading the crowded GOP field is former Majority Leader and Republican John through the end of June and had more than $3 It doesn’t get any easier after that. — he’s running to Specter’s left, in the hopes of Melancon — and his health care put into the race. by double digits. There’s still a long way to go, of three-term Rep. Rob Simmons, who was defeated Thune, fueled by national money and contingent million in her war chest at the time. Perhaps more A crowded Republican field is eager to winning over the party rank and file. plan — will play a central While a July Rasmussen Reports poll gave course, but few think the political conditions in for reelection in 2006. Simmons has led Dodd on whether the challenger can convince voters important, the recent chairmanship shuffle left her take on political newcomer Bennet, and it Toomey, once thought to be too conservative to role in the contest. Boxer a 45 percent to 41 percent lead — down 2010 will look anything like 2008, when Barack in head-to-head polling matchups for months; that Reid’s power hasn’t translated into results at the head of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition includes former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton — who be a viable statewide candidate in Pennsylvania, Vitter has relatively respectable approval from a 9-point lead in March — subsequent Obama narrowly carried the state, Kay Hagan Quinnipiac had him at a 5-percentage-point for Nevada — which is suffering from high and Forestry Committee — a key committee for ag- led Bennet by 9 points in a recent polling has tempered his style and is competitive with ratings in a state that Obama lost by a wide polls have not shown the race that tight, and knocked off Dole and Democrat Bev Perdue won advantage in mid-September. unemployment and foreclosure rates. dependent Arkansas. matchup. Specter in head-to-head matchups. margin, so he won’t be easy to dislodge. few see this as a top GOP pickup opportunity. the open governor’s race.

The Senator The Senator The Senator The Senator The Senator The Senator The Senator The Senator

Sen. Chris Dodd Sen. Harry Reid Sen. Blanche Lincoln Sen. Michael Bennet Sen. Arlen Specter Sen. David Vitter Sen. Barbara Sen. Richard Burr (D-Conn.) (D-Nev.) (D-Ark.) (D-Colo.) (D-Pa.) (R-La.) Boxer (D-Calif.) (R-N.C.) Age: 65 Age: 69 Age: 49 Age: 44 Age: 79 Age: 48 Age: 68 Age: 53 Home:East Haddam Home: Searchlight Home: Little Rock Home: Denver Home: Home: Metairie Home: Rancho Home: Winston- First elected:1980 First elected: 1986 First elected: 1998 First elected: Appointed First elected: 1980 First elected: 2004 Mirage Salem Term: 5th Term: 4th Term: 2nd in January 2009 Term: 5th Term: 1st First elected: 1992 First elected: 2004 Term: 1st Term: 3rd Term: 1st J ohn S hinkle — by P hotos , R euters and AP

2004 General Dodd 2004 General Reid 2004 General Lincoln 2004 General Bennet 2004 General Specter 2004 Vitter 2004 General Boxer 2004 General Burr Election Approval Election Favorability Election Approval Election Approval Election Approval Election Approval Election Approval Election Approval Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating 66% 61% 56% 51% 53% 51% 58% 52% Approve Chris Dodd (D) Approve Harry Reid (D) Favorable Blanche Lincoln (D) Ken Salazar (D) Approve Arlen Specter (R) Approve David Vitter (R) Approve Barbara Boxer (D) Approve Richard Burr (R) Approve Disapprove Unfavorable Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove 32% Don't Know 35% Not Sure 44% Don't Know 47% Don't Know 42% Don't Know 29% Don't Know 38% Don't Know 47% Don't Know Jack Orchulli (R) Richard Ziser (R) Jim Holt (R) Pete Coors (R) (D) Chris John (D) Bill Jones (R) Erskine Bowles (D) 54% 44% 15% 44% 48% 36% 38% 48% 51% 38% 2008 43% 2008 45% 2008 31% 2008 44% John Kennedy (D) 36% 2008 2008 31% Presidential 32% 29% Presidential Presidential 2008 Presidential 2008 Presidential 36% Presidential 20% Results 20% Results Results Presidential Results Presidential Results Results 1 Other 2 Other 1 Other 2 2 Other 1 Other Results Other Results 13% 8% 2 Other 9% 1 Other 1% Source: (D), Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 21-24; 784 voters (IVR) Aug. 14-16; 969 voters (IVR) July 17-19; 727 voters (IVR) Sept. 2-8; 600 voters (IVR) 38 43 45 44 37 49 McCain McCain 55 McCain McCain McCain 50 61 54 McCain 54 59 40 61 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama 59 39 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Approval Approval McCain Obama Approval Approval Obama Approval McCain Obama Approval Approval Approval Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Disapprove Voter Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Voter Disapprove Voter Voter Voter Voter Voter Registration Don't Know Registration Don't Know Don't Know Registration Don't Know Registration Don't Know Don't Know/ Registration Don't Know Registration Don't Know Registration Won't Say 43% 33% 60% 46% 37% 57% Voter 62% 51% 44% Democrat Democrat 53% Democrat Democrat 53% Democrat Democrat 52% 46% Registration 48% 51% 49% Democrat 53% 47% 20% 36% 36% 33% 42% 39% 31% 32% There is no party 37% 25% 35% Republican Republican 37% Republican registration in Republican Republican Republican Republican 43% 21% Arkansas. 22% 34% 12% 22% 24% Other 8% Other Other 6% Other Other 9% Other 5% 1% Other 1% 1% 2% Source: Almanac of Source: Quinnipiac University Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of Source: Southern Media & Source: Almanac of Source: Public Policy Institute Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; Poll, Sept. 10-14; 921 American Politics 2010; Source: Rasmussen Reports, American Politics 2010; Source: Rasmussen Reports, American Politics 2010; Source: Rasmussen Reports, American Politics 2010; Source: Quinnipiac University American Politics 2010; Opinion Research, April 13-16; American Politics 2010; of California, Aug. 26-Sept.2; American Politics 2010; Source: Rasmussen Reports, state election division registered voters state election division Sept. 14; 500 likely voters (IVR) state election division Sept. 28; 500 likely voters (IVR) state election division Sept. 15; 500 likely voters (IVR) state election division Poll, Sept. 22-28; 1,100 voters state election division 600 likely voters state election division 1,689 registered voters state election division Sept. 15; 500 likely voters (IVR)

Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Since winning the Senate seat in 1980, Dodd has Reid won his second term in 1998 by just 459 Lincoln, who won her seat at the age of 38, is the Bennet has never run for elected office. Specter is the longest-serving senator in No Louisiana Senate incumbent has been In her 2004 reelection victory, Boxer won nearly Since Sen. Sam Ervin retired in 1974, none of the never been reelected with less than 59 percent of votes over Republican , who ran for youngest woman ever elected to the Senate. Pennsylvania history. defeated since 1932. 7 million votes — the highest total for any Senate six senators who have held this seat have won a the vote. Nevada’s other Senate seat in 2000 and won. candidate in history. second term.

8 politico politico 9 ELECTION 2010: OPEN SEATS

KEY 2008 Presidential Results Obama McCain Other Obama Approval Rating Approve Disapprove Don't Know

Illinois Ohio The race for the seat Barack Obama In the seat left open by the retirement of On the heels of John McCain’s razor-thin, Ohio Democrats have been on a recent roll, resigned is a toss-up, a status that can be GOP Sen. , Democrats are united 4,000-vote win over Obama in 2008, Missouri is with Sherrod Brown knocking off incumbent GOP traced back to the notoriously botched effort behind Rep. Paul Hodes. Republicans are still due for another nail-biter next year in the race to Sen. Mike DeWine in 2006 at the same time that to appoint his successor. sorting things out in the primary field. replace retiring GOP Sen. . Ted Strickland won the open governor’s race. On the Democratic side, state Treasurer While this Senate seat is widely regarded as The contest will most likely be between Last year, Obama won the state with 51 percent Alexi Giannoulias is the front-runner, but he’s one of the top Democratic pickup opportunities candidates from two of the state’s most of the vote, the best Democratic presidential got two credible, though little-known, foes — the other best shots are Missouri and Ohio — prominent families: Democratic Secretary of State performance in Ohio since 1964. in the February primary — the earliest in the Hodes had a bad August, marked by criticism and Republican Rep. . That makes the Senate seat left open by the nation. that he avoided large-scale public events on Carnahan, the daughter of the late Gov. Mel retirement of GOP Sen. George Voinovich one of The Republican establishment has rallied health care. Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan — and the best Democratic pickup opportunities in 2010. behind moderate Rep. , a fifth-term In a state that’s emerging as a bellwether in sister to Democratic Rep. — was Two Democratic statewide officials are vying for congressman from the suburbs. the health care debate, Hodes probably didn’t the party’s top pick from the beginning. Blunt, the the nomination: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary While GOP statewide candidates have lost do himself any favors by referring to reform father of former Gov. Matt Blunt, faced grumbling of State Jennifer Brunner, with Fisher leading by landslide margins in recent years, Kirk is opponents as the “flat-earth society.” from many within the state party who worried that slightly in the polls. competitive in the polls, and this rates as one Former state Attorney General , the former House minority whip’s Washington ties In the Republican primary, former Rep. Rob of the GOP’s best chances of picking off a a top GOP recruit, led Hodes in a matchup in would serve as a millstone around his candidacy. Portman is the GOP establishment favorite and Democratic-held seat in 2010. the most recent polling, but she has to win the A recent Rasmussen poll showed the race leads by a wide margin in polls over Cleveland- Holding control of the Senate nomination first — and that’s not a certainty. deadlocked. area auto dealer Tom Ganley. seat is one of the administration’s top political priorities — it would be a major 1 50% 2 44% 1 48% embarrassment if Republicans picked up 54% 50% Obama’s old seat — but it won’t be easy, with 50% 0% 3% 2% impeached Democratic Gov. ’s 45 54 49 49 47 52 Source: Rasmussen Source: SurveyUSA, Source: Rasmussen trial slated for next year. Reports, Sept. 14; 500 Sept. 27-28; 600 Reports, Sept. 23; 500 likely voters (IVR) adults (IVR) likely voters (IVR) 1 56% Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of 42% American Politics 2010; American Politics 2010; American Politics 2010; state election division state election division 2% state election division 37 62 Source: Rasmussen Reports, Aug. 11; 500 likely voters (IVR)

Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division

Kansas/Massachusetts/ Delaware In solidly Republican , where GOP Sen. is giving up his seat to run for governor, the real action is in the GOP primary. Reps. and Todd Tiahrt are battling for the nomination in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1932. Likewise, in solidly Democratic Massachusetts, the Democratic special election primary to fill the late Sen. 2 ’s seat is the race to watch. While four credible Democratic candidates have surfaced, the two 57 who are best-known are state Attorney 41 General Martha Coakley and Rep. Michael Capuano. In Delaware, GOP Rep. Michael Source: Almanac of Castle's decision to run for Vice President American Politics 2010; 's old seat gives Republicans state election division an excellent shot at picking it up — even Texas if his opponent is Biden's son Beau, the The Texas Senate seat isn’t 39% state's attorney general. A recent poll open — yet. But GOP Sen. Kay 57% showed Castle with a slight lead. Bailey Hutchison, who is running for governor against Republican 4% Kansas Source: SurveyUSA, 1 incumbent Rick Perry, has said she Sept. 27-28; 600 will resign her seat later this fall. adults (IVR) 39% If she does step down, Texas law 1 Florida Kentucky calls for Perry to make an interim 57% 57 42 In the aftermath of the presidential It’s not often that the national appointment to Hutchison’s seat. election, the Senate seat held by 4% party breathes a sigh of relief when an Then comes a May 2010 special 48 Republican Mel Martinez looked to Source: SurveyUSA, 51 incumbent steps down, but that’s exactly Sept. 27-28; 600 election — an all-party primary, be one of the top Democratic targets what happened when unpopular and adults (IVR) Source: Almanac of with the two leading vote-getters in 2010. low-on-cash Republican Sen. Jim Bunning American Politics 2010; moving into a runoff if no one wins Obama had just carried the state, state election division announced earlier this year that he would a majority of the vote. The runoff Source: Almanac of and polls suggested Martinez was not seek reelection. would be held no more than 25 American Politics 2010; highly vulnerable. Then, in December Massachusetts 2 state election division The GOP establishment has unofficially days later. 2008, the first-term incumbent settled on Secretary of State Trey Grayson 58% While the Republican field is announced he would not seek as the pick to succeed the 77-year-old highly fluid, Houston Mayor Bill 42% reelection. 41% 36 Bunning, but Rand Paul, the son of former 62 White, a Democrat, has been 57% His surprise decision scrambled presidential candidate and Texas GOP Rep. 1% methodically building support and the 2010 field, but the outcome 1% , is making Grayson work hard to Source: Rasmussen would be well-positioned in the was pretty good for Republicans Reports, Sept. 8; 800 Source: Rasmussen earn the nomination. likely voters (IVR) special election. Reports, Aug. 17; 1,000 when popular GOP Gov. Charlie Democrats have a competitive primary Source: Almanac of likely voters (IVR) American Politics 2010; Crist decided to run for the seat and of their own, featuring two well-known state election division became the clear front-runner. statewide pols: Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, Delaware 1 1 43% Crist, who is not popular among who nearly defeated Bunning in 2004, and conservative activists, has a primary state Attorney General Jack Conway. 54% 56% challenge from former state House While Democrats have picked up the 45% 1% Speaker Marco Rubio and a credible governorship and two House seats in 37 62 55 44 Democratic opponent in Rep. 1% Source: Rasmussen recent years, the national party isn’t likely Reports, Sept. 16; Kendrick Meek of Miami, but one to be an asset in this race (except for its Source: Rasmussen 1,000 likely voters (IVR) year out from the election, Crist looks Reports, Sept. 30; 500 cash infusions, of course). Obama lost the likely voters (IVR) to be in decent shape and ranks as Source: Almanac of Source: Almanac of state by a wide margin, and he continues to American Politics 2010; American Politics 2010; the favorite to keep this seat in GOP struggle in Kentucky polls. state election division state election division hands.

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