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ELECTION 2010 ELECTION 2010 The 2010 Senate landscape is almost evenly split down the middle: Republicans will be defending 18 seats, while Democrats will be defending 19 seats, including the January special election in Massachusetts. The Senate Watchlist BY CHARLES MAHTESIAN CONNECTICUT NEVada ARKANSAS COLORADO PENNSYLVANIA LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA NORTH CAROLINA WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH WHY TO WATCH Chris Dodd, a five-term Democrat, is arguably The only thing stopping Senate Majority Leader In a state where John McCain crushed Barack Democrat Michael Bennet, appointed Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter faces what may Just when it looked like GOP Sen. David Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer won a There’s no scandal or silver-bullet issue. He’s the party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbent — Harry Reid from being rated as the most vulnerable Obama by 20 points in 2008 and where polls show to the Senate seat left vacant when Ken be the toughest election of his Senate career, Vitter might weather the scandal surrounding second term in 1998 by 10 percentage points reasonably well-funded. And unlike former GOP just look at the lengthy list of Republicans who are Democratic senator is the quality of his opposition. voters are deeply skeptical of Obama’s health care Salazar became interior secretary, has two which is saying something given the long arc of his the revelation that he was a client of a and a third in 2004 by 20 points. colleague Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who lost by a champing at the bit to take him on. Republicans struggled for months to come up plan, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln has little tough races ahead of him in 2010. tenure in office. Washington prostitution ring, Democratic Still, Republicans convincing margin in 2008, Sen. Richard Burr Dodd has experienced marked improvement in with a top-tier challenger to Reid, despite his anemic room for error in her bid for a third term. The first is the August primary, where Before he can claim a sixth Rep. Charlie Melancon announced he would remain convinced that her has been attentive to the state. his poll ratings in recent months, a development no ratings in the polls. Now the GOP has at least three According to a late September Rasmussen poll, he’ll face former state House Speaker term, Specter must defeat challenge Vitter in 2010, ensuring that the polarizing style and liberal Yet Burr’s approval ratings are lagging, and doubt assisted by the Senate Ethics Committee’s prospective challengers — former state Republican she trails all four of her Republican opponents. Andrew Romanoff, a talented young pol who tenacious and cash-flush Rep. first-term conservative would get top-tier voting record make her it’s got Democrats convinced they can deny him August dismissal of complaints alleging that Dodd Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, state Sen. Mark And the poll shows her trailing state Sen. Gilbert was bypassed for the appointment. Joe Sestak in the May primary, opposition. vulnerable in 2010. a second term in 2010. and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) had received special Amodei and businessman Danny Tarkanian — but Baker by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent. Baker Much of the state Democratic then knock off Republican Democrats have The GOP has recruited While the field isn’t set yet, Democrats already mortgage deals from Countrywide Financial. none of them has ever run a race quite like this or has emerged as an early front-runner for the establishment has lined up behind Bennet former Rep. Pat Toomey. already signaled that they a heavyweight challenger have one well-known challenger planning to Yet the committee also noted that the two against a smash-mouth opponent quite like Reid. Republican nomination. — as has the White House, which sought to Sestak The Harrisburg and consider the prostitution Fiorina in former Hewlett-Packard run: Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, the should have “exercised more vigilance" to avoid If the GOP nominee turns out to be equal to the Lincoln, however, is well-prepared to stave off dissuade Romanoff from running — but in Washington Democratic scandal fair game, while CEO Carly Fiorina, but first woman elected to statewide office in North the appearance that they received preferential task, the general election may end up resembling the opposition. short order Romanoff has already picked up establishments are lined up Vitter has indicated that Fiorina has stumbled out of the gate, and it’s Carolina. treatment, so the issue isn’t entirely wiped away. the epic 2004 South Dakota battle between then- She raised nearly $4.6 million for her campaign a few Democratic endorsements. behind Specter, but that’s not Sestak’s audience President Barack Obama not clear how much of her own money she’ll According to a recent poll, Marshall trails Burr Leading the crowded GOP field is former Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Republican John through the end of June and had more than $3 It doesn’t get any easier after that. — he’s running to Specter’s left, in the hopes of Melancon — and his health care put into the race. by double digits. There’s still a long way to go, of three-term Rep. Rob Simmons, who was defeated Thune, fueled by national money and contingent million in her war chest at the time. Perhaps more A crowded Republican field is eager to winning over the party rank and file. plan — will play a central While a July Rasmussen Reports poll gave course, but few think the political conditions in for reelection in 2006. Simmons has led Dodd on whether the challenger can convince voters important, the recent chairmanship shuffle left her take on political newcomer Bennet, and it Toomey, once thought to be too conservative to role in the contest. Boxer a 45 percent to 41 percent lead — down 2010 will look anything like 2008, when Barack in head-to-head polling matchups for months; that Reid’s power hasn’t translated into results at the head of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition includes former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton — who be a viable statewide candidate in Pennsylvania, Vitter has relatively respectable approval from a 9-point lead in March — subsequent Obama narrowly carried the state, Kay Hagan Quinnipiac had him at a 5-percentage-point for Nevada — which is suffering from high and Forestry Committee — a key committee for ag- led Bennet by 9 points in a recent polling has tempered his style and is competitive with ratings in a state that Obama lost by a wide polls have not shown the race that tight, and knocked off Dole and Democrat Bev Perdue won advantage in mid-September. unemployment and foreclosure rates. dependent Arkansas. matchup. Specter in head-to-head matchups. margin, so he won’t be easy to dislodge. few see this as a top GOP pickup opportunity. the open governor’s race. THE SENatoR THE SENatoR THE SENatoR THE SENatoR THE SENatoR THE SENatoR THE SENatoR THE SENatoR Sen. Chris Dodd Sen. Harry Reid Sen. Blanche Lincoln Sen. Michael Bennet Sen. Arlen Specter Sen. David Vitter Sen. Barbara Sen. Richard Burr — (D-Conn.) (D-Nev.) (D-Ark.) (D-Colo.) (D-Pa.) (R-La.) Boxer (D-Calif.) (R-N.C.) AP AND Age: 65 Age: 69 Age: 49 Age: 44 Age: 79 Age: 48 Age: 68 Age: 53 HINKLE S Home:East Haddam Home: Searchlight Home: Little Rock Home: Denver Home: Philadelphia Home: Metairie Home: Rancho Home: Winston- OHN EUTERS First elected:1980 First elected: 1986 First elected: 1998 First elected: Appointed First elected: 1980 First elected: 2004 Mirage Salem J by Term: 5th Term: 4th Term: 2nd in January 2009 Term: 5th Term: 1st First elected: 1992 First elected: 2004 Term: 1st Term: 3rd Term: 1st hotos P POLITICO, R 2004 GENERAL DODD 2004 GENERAL REID 2004 GENERAL LINCOLN 2004 GENERAL BENNET 2004 GENERAL SPECTER 2004 VITTER 2004 GENERAL BOXER 2004 GENERAL BURR ELECTION APPRovaL ELECTION FavoRABILITY ELECTION APPRovaL ELECTION APPRovaL ELECTION APPRovaL ELECTION APPRovaL ELECTION APPRovaL ELECTION APPRovaL RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING 66% 61% 56% 51% 53% 51% 58% 52% Approve Chris Dodd (D) Approve Harry Reid (D) Favorable Blanche Lincoln (D) Ken Salazar (D) Approve Arlen Specter (R) Approve David Vitter (R) Approve Barbara Boxer (D) Approve Richard Burr (R) Approve Disapprove Unfavorable Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove 32% Don't Know 35% Not Sure 44% Don't Know 47% Don't Know 42% Don't Know 29% Don't Know 38% Don't Know 47% Don't Know Jack Orchulli (R) Richard Ziser (R) Jim Holt (R) Pete Coors (R) Joe Hoeffel (D) Chris John (D) Bill Jones (R) Erskine Bowles (D) 54% 44% 15% 44% 48% 36% 38% 48% 51% 38% 2008 43% 2008 45% 2008 31% 2008 44% John Kennedy (D) 36% 2008 2008 31% PRESIDENTIAL 32% 29% PRESIDENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL 2008 PRESIDENTIAL 2008 PRESIDENTIAL 36% PRESIDENTIAL 20% RESULTS 20% RESULTS RESULTS PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS RESULTS 1 Other 2 Other 1 Other 2 2 Other 1 Other RESULTS Other RESULTS 13% 8% 2 Other 9% 1 Other 1% Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 21-24; 784 voters (IVR) Aug. 14-16; 969 voters (IVR) July 17-19; 727 voters (IVR) Sept. 2-8; 600 voters (IVR) 38 43 45 44 37 49 McCain McCain 55 McCain McCain McCain 50 61 54 McCain 54 59 40 61 OBAMA Obama OBAMA Obama OBAMA 59 39 OBAMA Obama OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA Obama Obama OBAMA APPRovaL APPRovaL McCain Obama APPRovaL APPRovaL Obama APPRovaL McCain Obama APPRovaL APPRovaL APPRovaL RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING RatING Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Disapprove VotER Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove VotER Disapprove VotER VotER VotER VotER VotER REGISTRatION Don't Know REGISTRatION Don't Know Don't Know REGISTRatION Don't Know REGISTRatION Don't Know Don't Know/ REGISTRatION Don't Know REGISTRatION Don't Know REGISTRatION Won't Say 43% 33% 60% 46% 37% 57% VotER 62% 51% 44% Democrat Democrat 53% Democrat Democrat 53% Democrat Democrat 52% 46% REGISTRatION 48% 51% 49% Democrat 53% 47% 20% 36% 36% 33% 42% 39% 31% 32% There is no party 37% 25% 35% Republican Republican 37% Republican registration in Republican Republican Republican Republican 43% 21% Arkansas.
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