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A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences And A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfilment of the Degree of Master of Science The Unsustainable Dynamics of the Production and Consumption of Animal Protein: A Future Vision for a Diverse Plant-based Diet Using a System Dynamics Approach CEU eTD Collection Jan ROHN May, 2013 Budapest Erasmus Mundus Masters Course in Environmental Sciences, Policy and Management MESPOM This thesis is submitted in fulfillment of the Master of Science degree awarded as a result of successful completion of the Erasmus Mundus Masters course in Environmental Sciences, Policy and Management (MESPOM) jointly operated by the University of the Aegean (Greece), Central European University (Hungary), Lund University (Sweden) and the University of Manchester (United Kingdom). Supported by the European Commission’s Erasmus Mundus Programme CEU eTD Collection ii Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this thesis is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this thesis should be referred to as: Rohn, J. 2013. Unsustainable Animal Protein Production and Consumption: The Unsustainable Dynamics of the Production and Consumption of Animal Protein: A Future Vision for a Diverse Plant-based Diet Using a System Dynamics Approach. Master of Science thesis, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. CEU eTD Collection iii Author’s declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. Jan ROHN CEU eTD Collection iv CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by: Jan ROHN for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: The Unsustainable Dynamics of the Production and Consumption of Animal Protein: A Future Vision for a Diverse Plant-based Diet Using a System Dynamics Approach Month and Year of submission: May, 2013. Animal protein production and consumption causes severe environmental issues and has been linked to numerous human health problems. Over the past decades, moral concerns about the production of animal proteins have become an increasingly important issue for society. This thesis uses system dynamics modeling as a tool to characterize the collective dynamics of the current protein system by mapping the stocks, flows and feedback loops. Also, a positive future vision was created that minimizes the negative environmental and health impacts of the current system and facilitates a more efficient protein production scheme to serve as the transformational goal. Intervention points were determined where change could occur to transform the system to the positive future vision. The model revealed that the consumer is the most effective point of transformation for change towards sustainable protein production and consumption. Subsequently, an action plan for change was designed based on the intervention points, using New York City as a case study. The shift towards a plant-based diet can help to significantly reduce the unsustainable aspects of the current system by lowering the demand for animal products. Since the only impediment to this transformation is consumer’s choice, change can rapidly arise. CEU eTD Collection Keywords: animals, meat, systems dynamics, protein, consumption, New York City, environment, agriculture, diet, plants v Acknowledgements I would like to express my very great appreciation for my advisor Prof. Jack Corliss who shared his expertise in system dynamics during many meaningful discussions. It was a great honor and a privilege to work with him on this project. My grateful thanks are also extended to Prof. Marcotullio and Prof. Van Kessel for provided me with valuable information about the animal protein production system. This thesis would not have been possible without the help of my advisors and all those who assisted me, for which I am very grateful. Special thanks should be given to Zoe Cantrall for the ongoing help and creative exchange of ideas. Finally, I wish to thank my parents for their tireless support and encouragement throughout my studies. CEU eTD Collection vi Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... x List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ xi 1. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 DIETARY NEEDS OF PROTEIN ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS .................................................................................................. 4 1.2.1 Land degradation ...................................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 Greenhouse gas emissions ........................................................................................ 5 1.2.3 Water use ................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.4 Water pollution ......................................................................................................... 6 1.3 CONFINED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS ........................................................................... 7 1.4 HUMAN HEALTH ................................................................................................................... 8 1.4.1 Associated diseases ................................................................................................... 9 1.4.2 Drug exposure ......................................................................................................... 10 1.5 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ....................................................................................................... 10 2. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................................... 12 3. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH ...................................................................................... 13 3.1 GENERAL JUSTIFICATION ................................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 New York City as case study ................................................................................... 15 4. METHODS AND JUSTIFICATION .......................................................................................... 16 5. ANIMAL PROTEIN PRODUCTION PROCESSES ............................................................... 18 5.1 ANIMAL PROTEIN PRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 18 5.1.1 Feed ......................................................................................................................... 18 5.1.2 Cattle ....................................................................................................................... 19 5.1.3 Pigs .......................................................................................................................... 24 5.1.4 Broiler ..................................................................................................................... 26 5.2 MEAT PROCESSING ............................................................................................................. 28 5.2.1 Packing .................................................................................................................... 28 5.2.2 Processing, transport and distribution ................................................................... 28 5.2.3 Waste and by-products ............................................................................................ 30 5.3 ANIMAL PROTEIN PRODUCTION FOR NEW YORK CITY ..................................................... 30 6. MONEY FLOWS AND MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS .............................................................. 32 6.1
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