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Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War Oasis, No Oasis ISSN: 1657-7558 ISSN: 2346-2132 Universidad Externado de Colombia Díaz, Fabio Andrés Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War Oasis, no. 26, 2017, July-December, pp. 25-39 Universidad Externado de Colombia DOI: 10.18601/16577558.n26.03 Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=53163843003 How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System Redalyc More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America and the Caribbean, Spain and Journal's webpage in redalyc.org Portugal Project academic non-profit, developed under the open access initiative Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War Fabio Andrés Díaz* ABSTRACT Key words: Inequality, horizontal inequality, Vertical inequality, protest, civil wars. The following article presents a series of hy- potheses to analyze the possible transitions Inequidad, protestas sociales between protest and civil war and their relation y guerra civil to inequality. To do so, the article presents an analysis on the emergence of protests and its re- RESUMEN lation with the increase in inequality across the world. This increase in inequality can in fact A partir de una serie de hipótesis se estudian lead to social unrest, instability and in some las posibles transiciones entre protestas y cases facilitate the emergence of future armed guerras civiles, y su relación con la existencia conflicts. Thus this scenario of increased in- de inequidades en diferentes constituyentes. equality presents different possible trajectories: Se analiza la emergencia de una nueva ola 1) protest generated by inequality can escalate de protestas, su relación con la existencia de into civil conflicts and civil war, or 2) protest inequidades y su aumento a nivel mundial. generated by inequality can facilitate processes Este aumento puede, de hecho, favorecer la of participation and democratic consolidation. emergencia de conflictos sociales, inestabili- The possibility of either of these transitions dad política, y, en algunos casos, facilitar la taking place is defined by the structural condi- emergencia de futuros conflictos armados. tions that define the interactions between pro- Este escenario de mayor inequidad presen- testors and authorities in particular settings. ta posibles trayectorias, de manera que las * MA in Development Studies. Research Associate, Department of Political and International Studies Rhodes University & Researcher International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands). [[email protected]]. Recibido: 23 de marzo de 2017 / Modificado: 13 de julio de 2017 / Aceptado: 9 de agosto de 2017 Para citar este artículo: Díaz, F. A. (2017). Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War. oasis, 26, 25-39. doi: https://doi.org/10.18601/16577558.n26.03 Fabio Andrés Díaz 26 protestas podrían escalar hacia conflictos y increase in protests should not necessarily be guerras civiles; o pueden convertirse en parte seen as something we should be afraid of, but de procesos de participación y consolidación rather as an opportunity to consolidate partici- democrática. Sin embargo, la posibilidad de pation within different states and constituents. estas transiciones está definida por una serie This research departs from the assump- de condiciones estructurales que son endémi- tion that protests and riots are a symptom of cas a cada país. social discontent with existing social contracts Palabras clave: inequidad, inequidad ho- (Dabla-Norris, Kochhar, Suphaphiphat, Ricka rizontal, inequidad vertical, protestas, guerra & Tsounta, 2015), and that protests are there- civil. fore central to the process of negotiation and renegotiation of different social contracts. It is in this context that the ebb of the welfare state INTRODUCTION and the increase in inequality submits states and their institutions to tensions (Hobsbawn, Is inequality related to the increase of protests? 2007, p. 4). Thus the emergence of a new wave Is it likely that inequality will drive an increase of protests in response increase of inequalities in armed conflicts in the future? This article can be seen as a symptom of future conflicts attempts to answer these questions, reflecting (Hobsbawn, 2007, p. 42). However these on the increase of inequality of incomes and tensions are not expressed uniformly; protests the existence of protests and civil wars. should not be equated to violence or civil war, The emergence of protests across the rather we should consider what elements seem globe (since 2008) under different flags and to drive the transformation from unrest to agendas presents a phenomenon that requires violence and armed conflict. Protest is protest, further analysis. This is a symptom of social civil war is civil war, and although they can be discontent, and could be interpreted as a related in wider socio-historical processes, they symbol of dissatisfaction with the current po- are not the same. litical settlements in different countries. These Thus the emergence of a new wave of tensions have been fuelled by the increase in protest that arise in contexts of high/increased inequality within countries (from the 1980’s) inequality requires further analysis of the dif- and the loss of responsiveness from states. How- ferent possible scenarios that might emerge ever, the tensions created by inequality and the in response to such increased protest. The pressures/limits to state responsiveness are not article argues that these protests present an new, protest was central to the emergence of the unstable equilibrium, which may follow differ- modern nation state and democracy1. Thus the ent trajectories (protest can escalate into civil 1 Although protests were informed by different inequalities, the demands that informed these protests related to the time and the space where they took place, so in the case of most European states these are related to the demands of proto-citizens of the emerging nations states in the middle ages. OASIS, No 26 • Julio-Diciembre 2017 • pp. 25-39 Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War 27 conflicts and civil war, or protest can facilitate Palma, etc.) and the time interval over which processes of participation and democratic inequality is being measured. consolidation). Different sources claim that income in- The article presents a general overview equality is increasing. Income inequality seems of trends in inequality across the globe. The to have been increasing since the 1980’s. The article proceeds to reflect on the impact of debate on the importance of income inequali- inequality on the emergence of protests and ties and its increase gained salience as an out- the possibility of the emergence of civil con- come of the 2008 financial crisis (Cingano, flicts or civil wars according to findings in the 2014, p. 8; Galbraith, 2012, p. 4). literature. Finally, the article discusses differ- Although literature on global inequality ent hypotheses regarding the impact of rising (of incomes) and globalization have argued inequalities on protests, and the possibility of that incomes at national levels should con- future conflicts taking place. verge, meaning that inequality of incomes should stop diverging, the reality is that in- UP OR DOWN? equality of incomes has maintained the trend towards divergence (Milanovic, 2010, p. 104; Descriptions of trends in inequality are domi- Krugman & Venables, 1995). nated by claims supported by empirical evi- Inequality and poverty are related, but dence; however these claims often speak of in- are not the same. Nevertheless, the picture equality without making explicit the nature of that links income inequality and poverty at the inequality described (vertical or horizontal), a worldwide level is more complex than ex- or adequately specifying around what aspects pected. On the one hand extreme poverty has of a society inequality is increasing or decreas- fallen globally by more than half from 52 per ing (provision of public services, income, sav- cent to 22 per cent between 1981 and 2008 ings, education, etc.). As such, in many cases (World Bank, 2012, p. 1). At the same time, inequality functions as a category more than a on average, income inequalities within coun- proper descriptor. Thus if we aim to provide tries seem to have increased (Milanovic, 2010, clear explanations around what is happening p. 153). This points to complex and intricate with inequality we need to elaborate around dynamics within countries. Citizens are on what is becoming more (or less) unequal, and average better off than before, however, when how this inequality is being measured. it comes to income inequality, the differences Therefore, to assess if inequality is in- between those within societies are widening. creasing or decreasing I argue that we need However, we should bear in mind that to clarify four different things: what is being inequality is not necessarily bad per se. There measured (income, outcome, etc.), the unit is good and bad inequality, and the type of of analysis used (nation, individuals, regions, inequality is what matters. Inequality of op- etc.), the measurement indicator used (Gini, portunities speaks of inequality in access to OASIS, No 26 • Julio-Diciembre 2017 • pp. 25-39 DOSSIER TEMÁTICO Fabio Andrés Díaz 28 opportunities and in the capacity of individu- inequalities between countries), in particular als within a society to achieve their goals given to international inequality of incomes (Pik- this inequality. This bad form of inequality is etty, 2015; Stiglitz, 2012; Cingano, 2014; widely understood
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