Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War Oasis, No

Oasis ISSN: 1657-7558 ISSN: 2346-2132 Universidad Externado de Colombia

Díaz, Fabio Andrés Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War Oasis, no. 26, 2017, July-December, pp. 25-39 Universidad Externado de Colombia

DOI: 10.18601/16577558.n26.03

Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=53163843003

How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System Redalyc More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America and the Caribbean, Spain and Journal's webpage in redalyc.org Portugal Project academic non-profit, developed under the open access initiative Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War Fabio Andrés Díaz*

Abstract Key words: Inequality, horizontal inequality, Vertical inequality, protest, civil wars. The following article presents a series of hypotheses to analyze the possible transitions Inequidad, protestas sociales between protest and civil war and their relation y guerra civil to inequality. To do so, the article presents an analysis on the emergence of protests and its re- Resumen lation with the increase in inequality across the world. This increase in inequality can in fact A partir de una serie de hipótesis se estudian lead to social unrest, instability and in some las posibles transiciones entre protestas y cases facilitate the emergence of future armed guerras civiles, y su relación con la existencia conflicts. Thus this scenario of increased in- de inequidades en diferentes constituyentes. equality presents different possible trajectories: Se analiza la emergencia de una nueva ola 1) protest generated by inequality can escalate de protestas, su relación con la existencia de into civil conflicts and civil war, or 2) protest inequidades y su aumento a nivel mundial. generated by inequality can facilitate processes Este aumento puede, de hecho, favorecer la of participation and democratic consolidation. emergencia de conflictos sociales, inestabili- The possibility of either of these transitions dad política, y, en algunos casos, facilitar la taking place is defined by the structural condi- emergencia de futuros conflictos armados. tions that define the interactions between pro- Este escenario de mayor inequidad presen- testors and authorities in particular settings. ta posibles trayectorias, de manera que las

* MA in Development Studies. Research Associate, Department of Political and International Studies Rhodes University & Researcher International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands). [[email protected]]. Recibido: 23 de marzo de 2017 / Modificado: 13 de julio de 2017 / Aceptado: 9 de agosto de 2017 Para citar este artículo: Díaz, F. A. (2017). Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War. oasis, 26, 25-39. doi: https://doi.org/10.18601/16577558.n26.03 Fabio Andrés Díaz 26

protestas podrían escalar hacia conflictos y increase in protests should not necessarily be guerras civiles; o pueden convertirse en parte seen as something we should be afraid of, but de procesos de participación y consolidación rather as an opportunity to consolidate partici- democrática. Sin embargo, la posibilidad de pation within different states and constituents. estas transiciones está definida por una serie This research departs from the assump- de condiciones estructurales que son endémi- tion that protests and riots are a symptom of cas a cada país. social discontent with existing social contracts Palabras clave: inequidad, inequidad ho- (Dabla-Norris, Kochhar, Suphaphiphat, Ricka rizontal, inequidad vertical, protestas, guerra & Tsounta, 2015), and that protests are there- civil. fore central to the process of negotiation and renegotiation of different social contracts. It is in this context that the ebb of the welfare state Introduction and the increase in inequality submits states and their institutions to tensions (Hobsbawn, Is inequality related to the increase of protests? 2007, p. 4). Thus the emergence of a new wave Is it likely that inequality will drive an increase of protests in response increase of inequalities in armed conflicts in the future? This article can be seen as a symptom of future conflicts attempts to answer these questions, reflecting (Hobsbawn, 2007, p. 42). However these on the increase of inequality of incomes and tensions are not expressed uniformly; protests the existence of protests and civil wars. should not be equated to violence or civil war, The emergence of protests across the rather we should consider what elements seem globe (since 2008) under different flags and to drive the transformation from unrest to agendas presents a phenomenon that requires violence and armed conflict. Protest is protest, further analysis. This is a symptom of social civil war is civil war, and although they can be discontent, and could be interpreted as a related in wider socio-historical processes, they symbol of dissatisfaction with the current po- are not the same. litical settlements in different countries. These Thus the emergence of a new wave of tensions have been fuelled by the increase in protest that arise in contexts of high/increased inequality within countries (from the 1980’s) inequality requires further analysis of the dif- and the loss of responsiveness from states. How- ferent possible scenarios that might emerge ever, the tensions created by inequality and the in response to such increased protest. The pressures/limits to state responsiveness are not article argues that these protests present an new, protest was central to the emergence of the unstable equilibrium, which may follow differ- modern nation state and democracy1. Thus the ent trajectories (protest can escalate into civil

1 Although protests were informed by different inequalities, the demands that informed these protests related to the time and the space where they took place, so in the case of most European states these are related to the demands of proto-citizens of the emerging nations states in the middle ages.

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conflicts and civil war, or protest can facilitate Palma, etc.) and the time interval over which processes of participation and democratic inequality is being measured. consolidation). Different sources claim that income in- The article presents a general overview equality is increasing. Income inequality seems of trends in inequality across the globe. The to have been increasing since the 1980’s. The article proceeds to reflect on the impact of debate on the importance of income inequali- inequality on the emergence of protests and ties and its increase gained salience as an out- the possibility of the emergence of civil con- come of the 2008 financial crisis (Cingano, flicts or civil wars according to findings in the 2014, p. 8; Galbraith, 2012, p. 4). literature. Finally, the article discusses differ- Although literature on global inequality ent hypotheses regarding the impact of rising (of incomes) and globalization have argued inequalities on protests, and the possibility of that incomes at national levels should con- future conflicts taking place. verge, meaning that inequality of incomes should stop diverging, the reality is that in- Up or down? equality of incomes has maintained the trend towards divergence (Milanovic, 2010, p. 104; Descriptions of trends in inequality are domi- Krugman & Venables, 1995). nated by claims supported by empirical evi- Inequality and poverty are related, but dence; however these claims often speak of in- are not the same. Nevertheless, the picture equality without making explicit the nature of that links income inequality and poverty at the inequality described (vertical or horizontal), a worldwide level is more complex than ex- or adequately specifying around what aspects pected. On the one hand extreme poverty has of a society inequality is increasing or decreas- fallen globally by more than half from 52 per ing (provision of public services, income, sav- cent to 22 per cent between 1981 and 2008 ings, education, etc.). As such, in many cases (World Bank, 2012, p. 1). At the same time, inequality functions as a category more than a on average, income inequalities within coun- proper descriptor. Thus if we aim to provide tries seem to have increased (Milanovic, 2010, clear explanations around what is happening p. 153). This points to complex and intricate with inequality we need to elaborate around dynamics within countries. Citizens are on what is becoming more (or less) unequal, and average better off than before, however, when how this inequality is being measured. it comes to income inequality, the differences Therefore, to assess if inequality is in- between those within societies are widening. creasing or decreasing I argue that we need However, we should bear in mind that to clarify four different things: what is being inequality is not necessarily bad per se. There measured (income, outcome, etc.), the unit is good and bad inequality, and the type of of analysis used (nation, individuals, regions, inequality is what matters. Inequality of op- etc.), the measurement indicator used (Gini, portunities speaks of inequality in access to

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opportunities and in the capacity of individu- inequalities between countries), in particular als within a society to achieve their goals given to international inequality of incomes (Pik- this inequality. This bad form of inequality is etty, 2015; Stiglitz, 2012; Cingano, 2014; widely understood to be unfair, and is evident Galbraith, 2012). Most current accounts of in a society where the state does not respond inequality make comparisons between groups equitably to its citizens such that the access to of countries for which data is available (North or provision of public services is unequal - this America and oecd countries). For example, in inequality entrenches cliques; access to re- most oecd countries the gap between the rich sources and real citizenry is afforded those who and the poor is at its highest level in 30 years, have more power or resources. Inequality of as illustrated by the fact that the richest 10% opportunity produces inequality of outcome; of the population earn 9.5 times the income success in such societies is predestined by one’s of the poorest 10% of the population in oecd position in society. countries (Cingano, 2014, p. 6). By contrast, inequality of outcomes refers It is important to state that a general to the inequality in the achievement reached description of what is happening to global by individuals as a byproduct of their efforts inequality might be inaccurate (Milanovic, and work; this inequality is the difference in 2010). As the indicators on inequality tend to achievement where citizens had access to the aggregate varied and diverse contexts (e.g. Sub- same opportunities. This good inequality is Saharan Africa is compared with Northern the driver of innovation, success and entre- Europe and India, etc.), any claim regarding preneurship. what is happening to inequality at a global level Our understanding of inequality and its is bound to rely on strong generalizations2. extent is limited by our access to information Thus, in order to make these assertions more and quality data. As such, we would expect precise, we need to consider what is happen- better quality data to inform our understanding with regard to within country inequalities ing what is happening with regard to differ- and how this impacts comparisons. The world ent kinds of inequalities in more “developed” is a diverse space, and aggregate indicators countries. In addition, we should bear in mind may produce inaccurate information as they that the measurement of inequality is some- tend to mask, rather than reflect, this inher- thing fairly recent, with a history of less than ent diversity. a hundred years (Kuznets, 1955). Aggregation may serve to produce ‘aver- In general, most of the assertions made ages’ that mask difference over geographical regarding inequality in the literature in recent areas, among population groups and over time. years refer to international inequality (the For example, the measurement of inequality

2 In addition to this, since quality data is not necessarily available everywhere, some measurements rely on questionable data.

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of incomes (measured through the Gini index) late 2000’s there was a slight reduction of in- for oecd countries shows different aggregate come inequality, while when we compare the dynamics for three different time intervals in income inequality in the interval between the the same geographical space (see Figure one). mid-1980’s to late 2000’s we find an increase From the mid 1980’s to mid-1990’s income in income inequality in oecd countries. inequality increased; from the mid-1990’s to

Figure 1 Trends in income inequality. Percentage point changes in the Gini coefficient on income

Source: oecd (2011).

It is important to note that the majority of the downward trend, income inequality in “west- findings discussed in recent work on inequality ern” nations has increased in the last 30 years use data from the ‘western world’ and pertain (1980 - 2010). This has been a byproduct of to these areas. Piketty shows that after a long the decrease of direct taxation on income and

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inheritance (Milanovic, 2010, p. 10), and in- Evidence of continued increases in in- tensified by technological change3 (Economists equality of incomes became evident in the for peace & Security, 2016, p. 5). 1980’s when inequality began to increase in The increase of income inequality, and the advanced economies (Piketty, 2015, p. 20). the entrenchment of inequalities of opportu- This phenomenon of increases of inequality nities further fuelled by the control of capital is further complicated by the fact that demo- and technology by small groups of people graphics have changed across the world across present an important scenario to analyze, different countries5. The improvement in life given that these forces can further inequality expectancies brought about by the welfare (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2011; Milanovic, state and improvements in health have affected 2010, p. 107). intergenerational mobility as well (Lefranc, Income inequality thus has been represen- Pistolesi & Trannoy, 2008, p. 514). As life ex- tative of this process, and played an important pectancy has extended, disposable income has role in the 2008 crisis, and the possible crises increased, fuelling further inequality trends: to come. This concern has been further fuelled now old and wealthy citizens have more time by the apparent ability of money to bypass the to continue enjoying their rents while the tax capacity of states to regulate them (Piketty, on their inheritances that would have created 2015) due to its mobility. some redistribution effects once they perish While globalization is presented as the takes longer be effected, and has in any case culprit of the rise of inequality4, we cannot also been reduced by lower taxation6. This overlook the fact that these changes in inequal- means that the difference in incomes, savings ity are also ultimately the consequence of the and the like are more likely to be stretched national rules of the game agreed at a country out than grouped in the future. The seed of level. Politics at a national level still matter future protests. (Stiglitz, 2012; Rodrik, 2012).

3 Technological change has increased the return to skilled labour relative to unskilled labour, increasing income inequality 4 As capitalism at a global scale drives down wages, the role of multinational companies and hyper financialization is increased through financial liberalization and weak regulation; thus, there is the likelihood that income inequality is due to increase. 5 I have not described on this document the trends in income inequality in the ‘non-advanced’ world. Therefore for stating the hypotheses of the increase of income inequality and protests, I will resort to the evidence of oecd countries. 6 Surely there should be differences in regards to the impact and the extent of the changes in inequality (of incomes) in non-oecd countries; however given the absence of good quality data in some of these countries, it is hard to assess as part of a general assessment (one could undertake specific country analysis for this) how different are the mechanics of trends in inequality in these contexts.

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Inequality and protest gard to the provision of and access to public services and rights. Research on the impact of inequality on pro- Understanding the impact of protests tests has gained salience in recent years as a related to inequality and their link with state- product of recent developments such as the hood should allow us to consider how pro- occupy movements, and the financial crisis of tests related to inequality have been related to 2008 (Galbraith, 2012). However, protests are processes of instability across the world. The not new phenomena (Tarrow, 2011). In fact, revolutions in Russia, China and France were it can be claimed that protests play a constitu- preceded by protests. The claims underpinning tive role in the inception of the modern nation these protests were informed by the inequal- state (Tilly, 2006). What we will see is the ity between different constituents (Skocpol, possibility of protests related to the increase of 1979). When South Africans protested during inequality in different countries taking place. and after Apartheid, their protests have been Thus, when a group of citizens protest in informed by the unequal treatment given to relation to inequality, they protest with regard citizens by their government. When Sinhalese to a particular subject, policy or action related and Tamils protested before the emergence of to inequality - be it inequality in educational the civil war in Sri Lanka, they did so in re- provision, access to public services, or the sponse to the unequal allocation of resources levels of unemployment in a particular coun- and benefits to citizens (Abeyratne, 2004). The try. Thus, the existence of protests related to protests and riots in Northern Ireland before inequality can be thus understood in relation the emergence of the civil war expressed a de- to the existence of inequalities with regards to mand to belong to a society of equals (White, the expectations and delivery of public policies 1989, p. 36). (real, or perceived). The recent increase in protests across Governments’ responses to inequality the world under different banners therefore cannot assume that full equality would lead requires attention (Heidelberg Institute for to there being no protests at all. The notions International Conflict Research, 2015; Dabla- of equality and inequality have multiple di- Norris, Kochhar, Suphaphiphat, Ricka & mensions; the possibility that any system and Tsounta, 2015). These protests could signal any social contract could avoid unacceptable an era of instability and tension. The claims inequalities in all dimensions is a chimera that inequality can breed instability (Stiglitz, (Sen, 1992). However, what can be argued 2012, p. 27), and in other cases that instabil- is that policy options should aim to reduce ity breeds inequality which bears instability inequalities of opportunities, so that the exist- (Cingano, 2014, p. 11), are valid and should ing inequalities in countries are those related be given attention. to outcomes and achievement. This would The existence of extreme inequality has involve limiting the impact of particular in- the potential to damage trust and social cohe- equalities that entrench inequalities with re- sion and the belief in the social contract and

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its institutions within a particular country and under which conditions inequality can be re- can lead to instability (Milanovic, 2010). It lated to civil war and civil conflict. is in this context that income inequality, and A preliminary illustration of the inconclu- the rise of other inequalities, has the poten- sive nature of the balance of evidence on the tial to fuel the de-legitimization of the state relationship between inequality and conflict structures, mobilizing opposition frustrated can be illustrated in the figure above (Figure with the status quo (Cederman, Gleditsch & 2). As we can see, several countries where in- Wucherpfenning, 2014). equality is salient (according to this particular When denunciations of the status quo index) - Brazil, The United States of America, are not responded to or acknowledged by the and Chile - do not suffer/have not suffered state, there is a higher likelihood that political from civil war in the last 70 years. However, instability will result (World Bank, 2012, p. other countries on the continent with similar 2). History reminds us that citizens denied of levels of inequality have experienced or suffer adequate forms of participation will protest and from conflict within the same time period, even revolt (Fukuyama, 2011, p. 32). Inequal- for example Colombia, Nicaragua and Guate- ity is thus deeply related to protests. However, mala. As such, it seems that there is something the existence of inequalities does not lead to one more to conflict than just inequality per se. single possible outcome (protest); civil conflict This lack of a clear and consistent causal and civil war is another possible outcome. link between inequality and civil war calls into question the claims of the literature which Inequality and civil war asserts that inequality does make civil war more likely (Houle, 2015, p. 2). This connec- The relationship between inequality and civil tion remains unclear (Buhaug, Cederman & war is still contested; evidence can be found to Gleditsch, 2014, p. 418), as whether or not support the link between inequality and con- inequality translates into conflict depends on flict, and also to reject this relationship (Man- other factors, including the legitimacy of the cini, 2008, p. 2). Does this mean inequality state, its strength and the political conditions does not matter for conflict? The absence of of a country (Cramer, 2003, p. 409). It might conclusive evidence does not necessarily mean be the case that elements mediate between we should disregard the findings and insights increases in inequality and the emergence of of academics who have found evidence sup- civil war: the strength of the social contract, the porting both claims. If we are to understand perception of citizens and the facility to mobi- how inequality affects or does not affect the lize citizens against the state and the capacity emergence of conflict, we need to determine of the state to embrace dissent.

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Figure 2 Inequality in America in 2013 using the GINI index (on income) as a measure of inequality for each country7

Source: World Economic Forum (2015).

The debate about the role of inequality in rela- However, these are better understood through tion to the existence of civil war and protests differentiating these claims by the type of in- involves many competing claims (Buhaug, equality being analysed: horizontal8, or verti- Cederman & Gleditsch, 2014; Dabla-Norris, cal inequality9. It has been found that vertical Kochhar, Suphaphitat, Ricka & Tsounta, inequality is not statistically related to the 2015; Cramer, 2003; Tilly, 2003; Gurr, 2015). onset of civil wars (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004;

7 The darker the color of a country, the more unequal the country is. 8 The inequalities between individuals belonging to different groups. For example, wealth inequality between black and white citizens of a country. 9 The inequality among individuals in a unit of analysis. For example wealth inequality in a country.

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Fearon & Laitin, 2003), while horizontal suffer from inequality, the importance of inequality has been found statistically sig- boundaries between different entitlements is nificant in describing the emergence of armed heightened, as compared to a society without conflicts (Murshed & Gates, 2005; Stewart, ethnic markers. This magnifies the notion of 2008; Østby, 2008 Cederman, Weidmann & relative deprivation and fosters the possibil- Gleditsch, 2011). However, it is accurate to ity of the emergence of conflict where deep state that prevalent vertical inequalities have horizontal inequalities are expressed (Buhaug, the potential to destabilize the social contract, Cederman & Gleditsch, 2014, p. 421). and this can be manifested in processes of However, the existence of salient inequali- contestation that could escalate into civil war ties does not imply the emergence of war. The (Murshed, 2009. emergence of civil war requires the sponsorship The research on horizontal inequalities of an financier, or the presence of resources that offers an avenue that is better able to under- could be looted; without this, the recruitment, stand the nuances of inequalities and conflict, financing and operation of an armed resistance especially given its interest in assessing both are hampered. One could in fact expect that how the differences between different con- in the absence of financiers and of external stituencies (groups) within a country inform funding, the emergence of civil war in highly and relate to the emergence of civil conflict unequal countries would be limited. In addi- and civil war (Langer, Stewart & Venugopal, tion the strength of the armed forces must be 2012, p. 1), and when political and socio eco- taken into account; it is assumed that the big- nomic disparities (inequality of opportunities) ger (or the stronger) the armed forces are, the increase the risk of civil war and civil conflict less likely it is that a civil war might emerge. (and when they do not) (Buhaug, Cederman Finally, the role of institutions and the state’s & Gleditsch, 2014, p. 10). institutional framework for embracing or de- Horizontal inequality facilitates mobiliza- terring escalation towards violence is essential tion towards conflict. This argument emerges – this involves how grievances are dealt with or from the observation that poverty regularly ignored by the state and its apparatus, and how fosters citizens’ participation in warfare. In- dissent is engaged within a society. The state equality reduces the cost of hiring recruits; and its institutions play a role in these pro- this makes the possibility of mounting a re- cesses, which contribute to the emergence of bellion or recruiting soldiers easier (Houle, civil war (Cederman, Weidmann & Gleditsch, 2015, p. 9). In addition it has been found that 2011, p. 478). Thus it is common to observe in societies where cultural or ethnic markers repression, apathy or mere incompetence as are salient, identity plays an important role the main responses of states in which civil war reducing the costs of mobilization (not to be emerged following armed protests. confused with the false claim that ethnicity If we overlook the possible links be- makes war more likely) (Collier & Hoeffler, tween protests about inequality and civil war 2004). Where groups are marginalized and we might be ignoring a key element in what

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defines the emergence of a particular type of Inequalities and contestation in a given country. I argue that the instability ahead protests and civil war can be studied as related processes, as they belong to a continuum in the It is important to reflect on how inequality state and the wider processes of contestation may affect the capacity of the nation states to taking place within it. conduct its affairs; in particular it is important Civil wars, civil conflicts and protests speak to discuss how the existence of inequality af- to (of) the state in different ways, and identify fects the likelihood of protests and turmoil in the state as a point of contention. Civil wars the future. challenge the state in order to reform a social The capacity of states to respond to cer- contract and acquire rights, political participa- tain inequalities (income) is limited, thus the tion, resources, independence or secession. This capacity of the state to respond to the demands relates to the state and its institutions, structures in regards to these inequalities will have to deal and organization. On the other hand, protests with structural issues that are beyond the full are actions undertaken by citizens of a particu- control of the state and will be limited. Thus lar territory who demand reforms, recognition, states face a challenge regarding how to regain or inclusiveness from public institutions10, ap- legitimacy in the face of their constituents, pealing to the arbitration or intervention of the given the difficulties faced in implementing state. Protest aim to achieve structural changes policies that transcend their borders and the - secession, policy change, regime change or the flows of capital that are not bounded by na- overthrowing of the current regime may be the tionhood. goal. Civil war and protest may aim for similar Widespread dissemination of informa- objectives (a deep reorganization of the state and tion about different countries and lifestyles the social contract), but seem to operate with will create greater demands for equality of different repertoires. opportunities from the state will likely lead to Analyzing the common properties that an increase in protests related to the increase of protests and civil wars share (Shaheen, 2015, inequalities (income inequalities) as disaffected p. 6; Hegre, Nygård & Ræder, 2017; Dudouet, citizens protest against their governments’ 2013) should thus allow us to further under- perceived failure to deliver the goods, services, stand their interaction, possible relationship protections and opportunities provided that with each other, and their relationship to the were expected or assumed to be received as study of inequalities (horizontal). part of their social contract (Murshed, 2002).

10 Here I address protests that are directed towards government actors. Protests that challenge the behavior of private actors are not considered here, despite the fact that these protests might relate with the public sphere and the existing social contract in a particular state.

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In countries where social mechanisms re- (Tilly, 2003b, p. 42). In these contexts when produce and stabilize exploitation and inequal- inequality increases we can expect protests to ity (Tilly, 2003a; Mosse, 2010, p. 1162) a de- emerge in the short term. crease in confidence in the institutions and the In strong states with strong repressive state will likely lead to unrest (Stiglitz, 2012). apparatus, the presence of salient inequali- Given this I propose the following hy- ties or increasing inequalities will not likely potheses around the possible impacts of in- to spur protests or conflict. This is because of creasing inequalities for the emergence of the dissuasive effect of the state, the difficulty protests and civil war: of mounting opposition against a strong op- Rising horizontal inequality that is paired ponent, and the capacity of the state to instill with the failure of the state to fulfill its func- effective propaganda campaigns that minimize tions can lead to protests and civil war (Mur- the sense of relative deprivation (Ostby, 2007, shed, 2009, p. 139). Even in the cases where p. 7). If an increase in inequality does not af- this loss of welfare due to state failure is ac- fect the capacity of the state to enforce laws, knowledged by states, but where there are not property rights and contracts, their own social enough resources to compensate citizens’ losses contract, and its capacity to raise revenues and caused by rising inequalities (institutions can- provide public goods (McLoughlin, 2015, p. not implement the changes that improve the 139), one may expect autocratic states to be conditions of citizens sufficiently fast, or where impervious to inequality. legitimacy is frail), instability will prevail - cre- In democratic societies there is the pos- ating a vicious circle of instability and weak- sibility that an increase in protests (as a result ness in institutions. of increased inequalities) will strengthen the An increase in inequality in a context in state. Where democratic governments offer which representation is limited or failing will protection and create systems of extraction and lead to a decrease in legitimacy and an increase allocation of resources that respond to popular in perceived relative deprivation, risking the demands for redistribution to address increas- weakening of the regime and the emergence of ing inequalities, these might present collective civil war. This is particularly the case in weaker benefits or the redistribution of resources in autocratic states where cliques have assumed favor of those affected by various inequalities control and the provision of public goods is (Tilly, 2003b, p. 38), which can constitute a limited (Tilly, 2003b, p. 37). reassertion of their social contract. However, In democratic regimes that that are inca- this is more likely to occur in strong states that pable of exerting collective controls over finan- are in the position to counter grievances due cial capital, information, media and scientific to having the resources to counterbalance the and technical knowledge (weak democracies), sense of deprivation (Bethke & Bussmann, rising inequality will create tensions that might 2011, p. 2). weaken state institutions, and in some cases Inequality is connected to the social con- lead to de-democratization and instability tract, and the nation state. The state will con-

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