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5 Themes and 17 Companies to Generate Alpha in an Industry in Transformation

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5 Themes and 17 Companies to Generate Alpha in an Industry in Transformation May 30, 2011 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Equity Research 5 themes and 17 companies to generate alpha in an industry in transformation E&P - seek exposure to five key themes Unconventional liquids We highlight five themes that we believe will Technological progress being made in established ACTION drive share price performance in the E&P sector; unconventional liquid/oil shale plays in the US RATINGS & UPSIDE TO 12-MONTH PRICE TARGETS high-impact, frontier exploration; unconventional could be levered to new basins and countries; we Upside to TP Market Cap (USDmn) Conviction Buy Rockhopper 241% 901 gas; unconventional liquids; explorers with a highlight two stocks that should benefit from this Aurelian 181% 411 Panoro 154% 261 strong core value; and NOC-driven M&A. We trend, including Conviction Buy Panoro. Bowleven 107% 1074 Buy highlight 17 companies that we believe provide Global Energy Development 189% 37 BPC 168% 316 the most attractive exposure to these themes. Balanced exploration Northern Petroleum 164% 173 Max Petroleum 159% 164 We identify five stocks with high-impact Falkland Oil & Gas 140% 192 PA Resources 132% 418 Nighthawk Energy 125% 36 Frontier exploration increasingly attractive exploration supported by core values that mitigate Dominion 117% 146 Igas 117% 187 We highlight five E&P stocks with high re-rating downside risk of exploration failure. Bowleven Nautical Petroleum 112% 470 Cove Energy 108% 691 potential from exploration in new basins. We and Rockhopper (Conviction Buys) screen well. Aminex Plc 104% 100 Great Eastern Energy 97% 771 expect the majors and NOCs to show increasing Borders and Southern 96% 392 Noreco 96% 523 appetite for these types of assets after a decade of NOC-driven M&A Green Dragon 95% 1718 Maurel & Prom 89% 2604 poor exploration performance. Bankers Petroleum 89% 1950 We see NOCs as the most price-insensitive buyers Sell Premier Oil 22% 3578 and believe that high materiality and exposure to Hardy Oil 22% 241 Unconventional gas in deficit markets new technologies drive such activity. Lundin Petroleum 14% 4315 Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Increasing gas prices and new technical advances Coverage View: Attractive benefit unconventional gas producers in countries Rating changes fighting for less dependency on foreign gas We upgrade Noreco and Maurel and Prom to Buy imports. Stocks we believe will benefit from this (from Neutral). We upgrade DNO and Encore Oil theme include Conviction Buy Aurelian. to Neutral (Sell). We downgrade Salamander, Det Norske and Coastal Energy to Neutral (Buy), and downgrade Premier to Sell (Neutral). Christophor Jost The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with +44(20)7774-0014 [email protected] Goldman Sachs International companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should Ruth Brooker be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect +44(20)7774-6842 [email protected] Goldman Sachs International the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as Michele della Vigna, CFA only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC +44(20)7552-9383 [email protected] Goldman Sachs International certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow Henry Tarr the Reg AC certification, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. +44(20)7552-5981 [email protected] Goldman Sachs International Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research May 30, 2011 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Table of contents Five themes to play in the E&P sector 3 Frontier exploration set to be a major theme in late 2011/early 2012. Industry appetite for frontier exploration provides additional benefits for explorers. 5 Rising gas prices, energy security and production ramp-ups to drive outperformance in unconventional gas 10 Unconventional liquids – de-risking of assets and potential M&A the key driver 15 Free exploration options remain a compelling investment case 18 M&A – Materiality and technical access a further potential driver of NOC activity 19 Thematic summary for E&P universe 21 Oil price sensitivity and the E&Ps; higher fiscal risk, but lower commercial thresholds; maintaining US$100/bl in our valuations 22 E&P screens; updating target prices and ratings 27 Medium-term exploration & balanced explorers still top performing exploration screens 34 Portfolio update for the E&Ps 38 North Sea performance weak on tax change; Falklands and Kurdistan remain weak 40 Maurel & Prom (MAUP.PA): Core value and ‘free’ exploration exposure; up to Buy 43 Noreco (NOR.OL): Core value combined with ‘free’ Norwegian exploration option; Buy 44 Premier Oil (PMO.L): Company’s strengths already in the price, down to Sell. 45 DNO international (DNO.OL): Underperformance & political de-risking of KRG, Neutral 46 Salamander Energy (SMDR.L): Downgrading to Neutral after recent outperformance 48 Det Norske (DETNOR.OL): Downgrading to Neutral following outperformance 50 Coastal Energy (CEO.L): Removing from Buy List, better upside elsewhere; Neutral 52 Encore Oil (EO.L): Underperformance and Cladhan reaction overdone; up to Neutral 54 Prices in this report are as of the close of May 25, 2011 unless stated otherwise. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 May 30, 2011 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Five themes to play in the E&P sector Our E&P universe provides exposure to a diverse set of themes and geologies. We highlight key themes in the E&P space that we believe complement broader industry themes that we expect to drive share price outperformance. High-impact, long-dated exploration: We identify stocks which we estimate have more than 50% of their value in exploration prospects with potentially greater than 300 mn bls of net resource. We see an increasing appetite among majors and NOCs to pursue high-impact frontier exploration, which we believe could encourage farm-ins, potentially improving terms. We believe that the attractive economics of these exploration plays could attract M&A in the event of discoveries. Unconventional gas: With gas demand in Japan likely to increase in our view, and upwards cost pressure on LNG developments, we view companies with gas assets in markets with gas deficits positively. We particularly highlight unconventional gas assets, which we believe are risked too harshly by the market, given the progress that has been made in unconventional gas in the US and Australia. Unconventional liquids: We believe that the technological progress being made in the established unconventional liquid/oil shale plays in the US could be levered to new basins and countries, improving drilling economics and flow rates. These assets are typically low enough on the cost curve to attract potential acquirers. Balanced exploration: We take a sceptical view on the ability to select stocks on the basis of the existence of a geological “edge”. We therefore favour companies which combine a strong core value (including discoveries) that fully supports the share price and a high level of exploration potential (66% re-rating potential to our valuations in the next 12 months). NOC-driven M&A: We believe that NOCs are the price insensitive buyers in the market and we therefore view NOC-driven M&A as particularly attractive. As we believe NOCs are keen to be partners in material developments, we identify companies with over 200mn bls of discovered resource in a single asset. We also believe that access to new, high-tech developments is an attraction for these purchasers. We highlight companies with stakes in assets which could fulfill this criteria. Exhibit 1: Buy-rated stocks exposed to top E&P themes and potential upsides to our 12-month price targets High impact exploration. Unconventional Gas Unconventional liquids Balanced Exploration NOC‐driven M&A Company Upside Company Upside Company Upside Company Upside Company Upside BPC 168% Aurelian 181% Panoro 154% Rockhopper 241% Cove Energy 108% Max Petroleum 159% Igas 117% Nighthawk Energy 125% Aurelian 181% Green Dragon 95% Falkland Oil & Gas 140% Green Dragon 95% Bowleven 107% Bankers Petroleum 89% Dominion 117% Great Eastern Energy 97% Aminex Plc 104% Borders and Southern 96% Noreco 96% Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 May 30, 2011 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Exhibit 2: Thematic winners: descriptions and potential upside to our 12-month price targets Potential uplift to valuation from Upside / Exploration re‐ complete de‐ downside to Company Theme Description & investment case Potential upside rating potential risking core Region BPC Exploration Early stage explorer in the Bahamas. Early indications from seismic indicate multi‐billion barrel potential 168% 1417% 1417% ‐74% Bahamas prospects. Previous wells in the area have encountered live oil shows and reservoir. Farm out and CPR the likely next catalysts in summer 2011 Dominion Exploration East African based explorer with licnces in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and DRC. 100% stake in Block 7 in 117% 1389% 1389% ‐82% East Africa deepwater Tanzania is the key near‐term driver. Seismic indicates multi‐tcf potential. Block is located close to blocks owned by Majors and in the same region as recent discoveries by Cove and BG Falkland Oil & Gas Exploration Explorer in South Falklands. High risk prospects, being drilled from 2D seismic with CSEM support with 140% 2504% 2504% ‐76% Falklands (South) prospect sizes well in excess of 1bn bls in many cases. Deepwater, harsh environment but discoveries of this size are likely to be commercial. Borders and Southern Exploration Targeting prospects in the South Falklands with the aid of 3D sesimic. Shares many of the same risks as 96% 1668% 1668% ‐74% Falklands (South) Falkland Oil & Gas. Drilling planned for early 2012.
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