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Engagement with Punjab Under CPEC Report Engagement with Punjab under CPEC A proposed framework for industry International Growth Centre July 2017 When citing this paper, please use the title and the following reference number: S-37413-PAK-1 Engagement with Punjab under CPEC: A proposed framework for Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................... 8 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 13 1.1 What is CPEC? .............................................................................................. 13 1.2 Industries and Commerce Department, Punjab .......................................... 14 1.3 Punjab’s Industrial Landscape ..................................................................... 15 1.4 Role of Provinces vis-à-vis CPEC ................................................................ 21 1.5 Key Objectives and Proposed Approach .................................................... 22 2 BROAD CONTOURS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY .............................................. 23 2.1 Objectives of the Proposed Policy Framework ........................................... 23 2.2 Tools for Industrial Policy and Investment Framework .............................. 25 2.3 Business Environment Reform .................................................................... 27 2.4 Assessing Sector Priorities for Punjab ....................................................... 30 2.4.1 Need for Industry/ Sector Diagnostics ........................................................... 33 2.4.2 Parameters for Sector Diagnostics ............................................................... 33 3 ILLUSTRATIVE SECTOR FINDINGS – READY-MADE GARMENTS ............... 37 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 37 3.2 Economic Benefit .......................................................................................... 40 3.2.1 Impact on balance of trade ........................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Impact on market concentration, prices and choice ...................................... 58 3.2.3 Is it an enabling sector or an enabling technology? ...................................... 58 3.2.4 What are the expected linkage effects? ........................................................ 58 3.2.5 What integration opportunities are there for local businesses? ..................... 59 3.2.6 Are there good investor prospects in this sector? ......................................... 59 3.2.7 Does Punjab have the underlying assets and natural endowments to be competitive in this sector? ....................................................................................... 60 3.2.8 Can Pakistan develop the infrastructure to compete in this sector? Are there barriers to growth in this sector easy to remove? .................................................... 60 3.3 Social inclusiveness ..................................................................................... 65 3.3.1 Employment creation: impact on quality ....................................................... 65 3.3.2 Are there prospects for improving inclusiveness on gender? ........................ 71 3.3.3 Is the proposal likely to improve geographic disparities? .............................. 72 3.3.4 Provision for SMEs ....................................................................................... 73 3.3.5 Skills and resource match ............................................................................. 73 3.4 Innovation ...................................................................................................... 74 3.5 Sustainability ................................................................................................. 75 4.5.1 Sustained growth ............................................................................................ 75 3.5.2 Growth that is environmentally friendly ......................................................... 75 3.6 Summary ........................................................................................................ 76 3.6.1 Economic benefit .......................................................................................... 76 3.6.2 Social inclusiveness ..................................................................................... 76 3.6.3 Innovation ..................................................................................................... 77 3.6.4 Sustainability ................................................................................................ 77 3 Engagement with Punjab under CPEC: A proposed framework for Industry 4 ILLUSTRATIVE SECTOR FINDINGS – AUTOMOTIVE .................................... 78 4.1 Introduction and reason for selection ......................................................... 78 4.2 Economic benefit .......................................................................................... 79 4.2.1 Domestic market profile ................................................................................ 79 4.2.2 Impact on balance of trade ........................................................................... 86 4.2.3 Impact on competitiveness of other sectors ................................................ 103 4.2.4 Is it an enabling sector or an enabling technology? .................................... 103 4.2.5 What integration opportunities are there for local businesses? ................... 104 4.2.6 Are there good investor prospects in this sector? ....................................... 104 4.2.7 Does Punjab have the underlying assets and natural endowments to be competitive in this sector? ..................................................................................... 104 4.2.8 Can Pakistan develop the infrastructure to compete in this sector? Are the barriers to growth in this sector easy to remove? .................................................. 105 4.3 Social Inclusiveness ................................................................................... 106 4.3.1 Employment creation: Impact on quantity ................................................... 106 4.3.2 Are there prospects for improving inclusiveness on gender? ...................... 108 4.3.3 Is the proposal likely to improve geographic disparities? ............................ 108 4.3.4 Provision for SMEs ..................................................................................... 109 4.3.5 Skills and resource match ........................................................................... 109 4.4 Innovation .................................................................................................... 111 4.5 Sustainability ............................................................................................... 114 4.5.1 Sustained growth ........................................................................................ 114 4.5.2 Growth that is environmentally sustainable ................................................. 115 5 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 118 5.1.1 Economic benefit ........................................................................................ 118 5.1.2 Social inclusiveness ................................................................................... 118 5.1.3 Innovation ................................................................................................... 119 5.1.4 Environmental sustainability ....................................................................... 119 6 INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND CHINA ............. 120 6.1 Industrial Cooperation Under CPEC .......................................................... 120 6.2 Industrial Cooperation under LTP .............................................................. 120 6.2.1 LTP’s Industrial Priorities ............................................................................ 120 6.2.2 Development of Industrial Clusters and Parks under LTP ........................... 123 6.2.3 Modes of Industrial Cooperation Given in LTP ............................................ 124 6.2.4 Other Initiatives .......................................................................................... 125 6.3 Pak-China Free Trade Agreement .............................................................. 125 6.4 Analysis of Industrial Cooperation Framework Under CPEC’s LTP ........ 128 6.5 Fundamental Tenets of Industrial Cooperation for LTP ........................... 131 6.6 Immediate Sector-Specific Considerations ............................................... 132 7 CONCLUSION AND WAY FORWARD ........................................................... 134 8 REFERENCES ................................................................................................ 136 9 APPENDIX: TEMPLATE FOR SECTOR DIAGNOSTICS ................................ 139 4 Engagement with Punjab under CPEC: A proposed framework for Industry LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor IGC International Growth Centre LTP Long-Term Plan PER Punjab Economic Report OBOR One Belt One Road JCC Joint Coordination Committee CDB China Development Bank TEVTA Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority WTO World
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