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Sydney Strategic Model Re-Estimation: Mode-Destination Model EUROPE Sydney Strategic Model Re-estimation Mode-Destination Model James Fox, Bhanu Patruni, Andrew Daly For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1130 Original date of publication December 2010 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2015 Transport for New South Wales RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decisionmaking in the public interest through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the sponsor. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.rand.org/randeurope Preface RAND Europe were commissioned by the Transport Data Centre (TDC) (now known as Bureau of Transport Statistics, and referred to as BTS) of the New South Wales Ministry of Transport (now known as Transport NSW) to re-estimate the travel demand model components of the Sydney Strategic Transport Model (STM). The STM was designed by Hague Consulting Group (1997). In Stage 1 of model development (1999–2000), Hague Consulting Group developed mode-destination and frequency models for commuting travel, as well as models of licence ownership and car ownership. In addition, a forecasting system was developed incorporating these components. In Stage 2 of model development (2001–2002), RAND Europe, incorporating Hague Consulting Group, developed mode and destination and frequency models for the remaining home-based purposes, as well as for non-home-based business travel. Then, during 2003–2004, RAND Europe undertook a detailed validation of the performance of the Stage 1 and 2 models. Finally, Halcrow undertook Stage 3 of model development (2007), in which they re-estimated the home–work mode-destination models, and at the same time developed models of access mode choice to train for home– work travel. By 2009, some model parameters dated back to 1999, raising concerns that the model may no longer reflect with sufficient accuracy the current behaviour of residents of Sydney. Furthermore, changes to the zone structure of the model have occurred with the number of zones approximately trebling in number and the area of coverage increased to include Newcastle and Wollongong. Therefore, TDC decided to commission this study to re- estimate the STM models. In this stage of model development, the models estimated during Stages 1 to 3 have been re-estimated using more recent Household Travel Survey data in order to reflect travel conditions for a new 2006 base year. Furthermore, the scope of the mode-destination models has been extended in two ways. First, they now model the choice between tolled and non-tolled alternatives for car driver travel. Second, the access mode-choice models have been estimated across all travel purposes, and have been extended so that the choice of station zone is now explicitly represented for park-and-ride and kiss-and-ride travel. Two reports have been produced by RAND Europe during the course of this study: a) This mode-destination modelling report b) A separate frequency, licence, car ownership modelling report. iii Sydney Strategic Model Re-estimation: RAND Europe Mode-Destination Modelling RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that serves the public interest by improving policymaking and informing public debate. Clients are governments, institutions and firms with a need for rigorous, impartial, multidisciplinary analysis of the hardest problems they face. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND’s quality assurance standards (see http://www.rand.org/about/standards/) and therefore may be represented as a RAND Europe product. For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact James Fox at: RAND Europe Westbrook Centre Milton Road Cambridge CB4 1YG +44 (0)1223 353 329 [email protected] iv Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................ iii Table of Figures ..........................................................................................................vii Table of Tables ............................................................................................................ ix CHAPTER 1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 Modelling Assumptions ................................................................... 3 2.1 Study Area ......................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Trips and Tours ................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Purposes ............................................................................................................ 6 2.4 Modes ............................................................................................................... 7 2.5 Times of Day .................................................................................................... 8 2.6 Sample Sizes ...................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 3 Level of Service Data ...................................................................... 11 3.1 Car Level of Service ......................................................................................... 11 3.2 Train Level of Service ...................................................................................... 16 3.3 Bus Level of Service ......................................................................................... 17 3.4 Taxi Level of Service ........................................................................................ 18 CHAPTER 4 Modelling Toll Roads .................................................................... 21 4.1 Representation in Assignment ......................................................................... 21 4.2 Toll Road Alternatives ..................................................................................... 23 CHAPTER 5 Access Mode and Station Choice .................................................... 27 5.1 Access Mode Alternatives ................................................................................ 29 5.2 Level of Service ................................................................................................ 30 5.3 Station Alternatives ......................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 6 Model Specification ....................................................................... 35 6.1 Alternatives ..................................................................................................... 35 6.2 Model Variables .............................................................................................. 38 6.3 Model Exclusions ............................................................................................ 42 6.4 Structural Tests ............................................................................................... 43 v Sydney Strategic Model Re-estimation: RAND Europe Mode-Destination Modelling CHAPTER 7 Model Results ................................................................................ 45 7.1 Specification of Cost ........................................................................................ 45 7.2 Level of Service Terms ..................................................................................... 51 7.3 Socio-Economic Terms .................................................................................... 52 7.4 Destination Effects .......................................................................................... 57 7.5 Toll Roads ....................................................................................................... 60 7.6 Access Mode and Station Choice ..................................................................... 62 7.7 Structural Tests ................................................................................................ 69 CHAPTER 8 Model Validation ........................................................................... 79 8.1 Elasticity Tests ................................................................................................. 79 8.2 Values of Time ................................................................................................ 83 8.3 Tour Lengths ................................................................................................... 92 CHAPTER 9 Summary ..................................................................................... 101 Model Specification ................................................................................................. 101 Model Results .......................................................................................................... 102 Model Validation ..................................................................................................... 106 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 109 Reference List
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