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Weekly Strategy Monday, April 23, 2018 FBMKLCI: 1, 887.75 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* WWeeeekkllyy SSttrraatteeggyy Market View, News in Brief: Corporate, Economy, and Share Buybacks Kaladher Govindan Tel: +603-2167 9609 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Market View FBMKLCI Could Undergo Healthy Consolidation The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) managed to push above 1,880 to challenge record highs last week, largely helped by a surge in heavyweight oil & gas counters as global oil markets firmed following top OPEC member Saudi Arabia’s outlook that prices may top USD100 a barrel, and fears the US may re-impose trade sanctions on Iran next month. However, profit-taking interest on small caps forced a pullback on Friday, given the absence of follow-through buying momentum ahead of the weekend. For the week, the local benchmark advanced another 19.28 points, or 1.03 percent to 1,887.75, with Petronas Dagangan (+RM2.12), Petronas Gas (+58sen), PPB Group (+52sen), Hong Leong Bank (+50sen) and HLFG (+38sen) dominating gains. Average daily traded volume and value retraced to 2.61 billion shares and RM2.33 billion last week, compared to the 3.32 billion shares and RM2.51 billion average respectively the previous week. At 1,896.03, the FBMKLCI almost surpassed the all-time high of 1896.23 last week before retreating. Although momentum indicators are showing profit taking bias in the immediate term, the healthy consolidation is necessary for the benchmark index to trend higher, especially immediately succeeding the 14 th GE, presuming there is no change in the power base. A jubilant mood could easily cause the 1,900 barrier to be broken before testing 1,950 level. Continued up trend in crude oil prices could solidify the positive trend due to its contribution in reducing budget deficit and its high correlation with ringgit’s strength. A decision by the US to repeal the waiver on Iran’s oil sanction when it expires on 12 May will be a strong catalyst for the crude oil to break pass the USD80 per barrel level as that will affect at least a quarter of the estimated 2.5 million barrels per day that is shipped in February 2018 versus average 2.1 million barrels per day in 2017. About 62% of the 777 million barrels of crude that it shipped in 2017 went to buyers in Asia (mainly China and India) and the rest to Europe. It currently produces around 3.8 million barrels per day and is hoping to increase it to 4.7 million barrels per day by 2022. Despite these short-term drivers, stretched valuation may emerge as potential setback post- 14 th GE rally. As it is, FBMKLCI is trading at a consensus calendar year 2019 price-to- earnings ratio of 15.7x versus regions’ 14.8x (Thailand 14.7x, Indonesia 14.5x and Philippines 15.1x) and has outperformed all regional markets year-to-date. Thus, foreign funds could be tempted to sell and shift to undervalued regional markets post 14 th GE rally. Besides, a check on ringgit’s performance post last four general elections since 1990 (excluding 1999 and 2004 when the ringgit was pegged) generally showed weakness, which vindicates foreign liquidation pressure. Besides that, concerns about trade war could return strongly post-election. The United States’ decision last week to impose a ban on American companies selling parts and software to ZTE for seven years caused a furore in China. China’s swift retaliation by requiring America’s Qualcomm Inc. to reapply for approval for its acquisition of Netherland’s NXP Semiconductors NV reassures investors that the trade war is here to stay. So far, Qualcomm has received approval from eight of nine required global regulators to finalise the acquisition. China’s clearance is the only one pending. Conditions can turn ugly in the not so distant future, potentially in June. This is after the expiry of 60 days public consultations period for the US to impose higher tariff on USD150 billion worth of imports from China. Hopefully, both economic superpowers start to engage on negotiations prior to that, which can delay the implementation time frame or mellow down the current hard stance. Page 1 of 7 23-Apr-18 Economic data wise, the advance estimate of US first quarter GDP is due this Friday. Actual annual rate of growth could come in lower than consensus forecast of 2.1% and fourth quarter 2017’s 2.9% due to softer private consumption, private investment and exports. However, based on historical data, a weaker performance in the quarter is a norm before a much stronger growth in the following quarter. As such, a weaker data not necessarily points to dovish expectations about the future, especially from the Fed. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA S ECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 203 2 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 2 of 7 23-Apr-18 News In Brief Corporate Malayan Banking Berhad obtained approval from Bank Negara Malaysia to acquire Permodalan Nasional Bhd’s fund management firms, namely Amanah Mutual Bhd and Singapore Unit Trusts Ltd, for RM51mn cash. (The Edge) Yinson Holdings Bhd and Japan's Sumitomo Corp plan to jointly pursue and collaborate in the leasing and operation of floating production storage and offloading and floating storage and offloading projects worldwide. Both companies have entered into a 10-year, binding Memorandum of Understanding for the purpose. Separately, Yinson said Sumitomo has participated in 26% equity in Yinson Production (West Africa) Pte Ltd through a Japanese consortium which is nearing completion. (Bursa Malaysia) UMW Holdings Bhd’s RM2bn perpetual sukuk was rated A1 by RAM Ratings Services Bhd, thanks to an improvement in its operating performance and financial profile. The ratings agency also reaffirmed its AA2 rating on the group’s RM2bn Islamic MTN programme. (The Edge) Top Glove Corp Bhd is proposing a 1-for-1 bonus issue involving up to 1.3bn new shares to reward shareholders. The group also plans to issue up to USD300mn worth of bonds to repay Top Glove's bank borrowings. (Bursa Malaysia) Comment: We view the exercise positively as the bonus issue will further increase trading liquidity. Meanwhile, we see the bond sale as a replacement for the USD310mn loan it recently took. This gives Top Glove more time to repay the loans along with lower interest rate. Maintain buy on Top Glove with an unchanged TP of RM12.20/share. AMMB Holdings Bhd confirmed that it settled its civil suit with Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd for the alleged misappropriation of sensitive information via the latter's ex- employees. The suit was reported to have named key personnel within AmBank Group's business banking division, and brought into question the near-term direction of the up-and- coming unit that was slated to spearhead the bank's growth in the coming years. (The Edge) Tek Seng Holdings Bhd is appealing against a March 22 court decision requiring its wholly-owned subsidiary Wangsaga Industries Sdn Bhd to pay Tenaga Nasional Bhd RM5.1mn in arrears. (Bursa Malaysia) Sinotop Holdings Bhd plans to purchase between 60% and up to the entire equity stake in Asianmax Corp Sdn Bhd, a construction unit controlled by its major shareholder Datuk Justin Soo, for as much as RM165mn. It inked a binding term sheet with Soo “to explore and negotiate further” with Soo for the stake buy. (Bursa Malaysia) Daya Materials Bhd is in discussions with many parties, including Siem Offshore Rederi AS, to formulate a plan to regularise its financial condition. As at the date of this announcement, it has not entered into any agreement with any party in relation to the regularisation plan. The statement was issued in response to a local daily's report that Siem Offshore Rederi would emerge as Daya Material's largest shareholder with more than a 20% stake if the latter can undertake the successful implementation of a regularisation plan. (Bursa Malaysia) Page 3 of 7 23-Apr-18 Sona Petroleum Bhd announced that it will be distributing the remaining monies held in its cash trust account on April 30, 2018. The amount to be distributed will be a cash equivalent of 1.15 sen for every share held in the company. Sona failed to convince shareholders of the viability of the USD25mn (RM100.8mn) Stag Oilfield acquisition in Australia. (Bursa Malaysia) CIMB Thai Bank Public Co Ltd, a 94.11% subsidiary of CIMB Group Bhd , saw net profit for its 1QFY18 rise 39.3% YoY to THB168.9mn from THB121.2mn. CIMB Thai attributed its earnings to an 8.1% growth in operating income and a 4.5% drop in provisions, offset by 10.6% increase in operating expenses. (The Edge) Page 4 of 7 23-Apr-18 News In Brief Economy Asia Malaysia’s Forex Reserves Rise to US$110bil, Highest Since March 2015 Bank Negara foreign exchange reserves rose US$2.2 during the first two weeks of April to US$110bil, its highest level in three years.
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