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FBM KLCI Constituents Review: TM Out, Top Glove to Feature?

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FBM KLCI Constituents Review: TM Out, Top Glove to Feature? October 23, 2018 FBM KLCI constituents review TM out, Top Glove to feature? Analysts Potential changes Telekom Malaysia (TM) could be replaced by Top Glove in the upcoming Wong Chew Hann FBM KLCI constituent review. If Top Glove is in, and TM is out, the (603) 2297 8686 combined weight of the glove sector on the benchmark index would be [email protected] higher from 1.8% presently, to 3.6%, while telco sector’s weight would retrace from 9.5% to 8.6%. The price cut-off date for constituent determination is still a month away, i.e. on 26 Nov, we estimate. Top Glove is a BUY in our research universe, while TM is a HOLD. Our FBM KLCI stock coverage Stock Name Rec Shr Px @ 22 Oct TP Based on 26 Nov’s close (MYR) (MYR) The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) constituents are due for a Public Bank HOLD 24.98 22.70 STRATEGY review, using share prices as at market close on 26 Nov 2018 (Monday), Tenaga HOLD 14.50 16.00 per our interpretation from the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Series, Ground CIMB Group HOLD 5.98 6.30 Rules (updated Oct 2018). The constituent changes will be implemented Petronas Chem HOLD 9.38 9.70 Sime Darby Plant HOLD 5.23 5.35 after the market closes on the third Friday in December, i.e. 21 Dec Genting Bhd BUY 7.46 11.55 2018, and would be effective Monday, 24 Dec 2018. Axiata HOLD 3.49 4.60 Digi.Com HOLD 4.25 4.80 Based on our estimates Dialog BUY 3.39 3.58 Malaysia Based on share prices as at 22 Oct’s (yesterday) market close, TM has Maxis HOLD 5.22 5.90 fallen in rank in full market capitalisation on Bursa Malaysia, to number Petronas Gas BUY 18.40 19.50 38. If TM’s market rank remains at, or below 36 come 26 Nov, the stock IOI Corporation BUY 4.55 4.76 IHH BUY 5.01 7.00 would exit as a FBM KLCI constituent, while its replacement will be the Hong Leong Bank HOLD 20.62 19.45 highest rank non-existing constituent. Currently in-the-running is Top Genting Malaysia BUY 4.56 5.70 Glove whose market rank has climbed to number 28. Since the last FBM KL Kepong HOLD 25.00 23.70 KLCI constituent review in Jun 2018, TM’s market cap has fallen c.26% Hartalega SELL 6.37 5.55 (from end-June), vs. Top Glove’s -5% and Bursa Main Market’s –1.1%. Nestle SELL 144.20 102.00 Sime Darby Bhd HOLD 2.44 2.45 Gloves to rise in weighting MISC HOLD 5.76 6.30 We estimate that Top Glove could have an index weight of 1.8%. Due to MAHB BUY 8.50 11.50 RHB HOLD 5.21 5.90 differences in market capitalisation and investability weights for TM vs. Telekom Malaysia HOLD 2.31 3.70 Top Glove, we estimate the other existing FBM KLCI constituents would HL Financial Grp BUY 18.58 21.20 see some shave in their weights on the index post the constituent review KLCC Prop HOLD 7.60 8.00 – by 0.03-0.14 ppts for the top 10 stocks. By sector, the combined weight POTENTIAL of gloves would be higher at 3.6%, while telco will retrace to 8.6%. Top Glove BUY 11.50 12.85 Largest will still be banks (e.36.8%), followed by utility (e.14.9%). Source: Maybank KE THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH PP16832/01/2013 (031128) SEE PAGE 5 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Strategy Research Impact on weightings FBM KLCI constituent weights, based on 22 Oct 2018’s closing share prices (ranked by existing weightage) FBM KLCI 30 Index weights Market capitalization Existing Potential @ 22 Oct 2018 IW adjusted Public Bank 14.64% 14.50% 96,976 77,251 Tenaga Nasional 10.87% 10.77% 82,334 57,359 Malayan Banking 10.60% 10.50% 104,935 55,927 CIMB Group Holdings 7.46% 7.39% 56,007 39,374 PETRONAS Chemicals Group 5.02% 4.97% 75,040 26,489 Sime Darby Plantation 3.49% 3.46% 35,568 18,414 Genting 3.24% 3.21% 28,725 17,077 Axiata Group 3.03% 3.00% 31,653 15,982 Digi.com 2.95% 2.92% 33,044 15,540 Dialog Group 2.93% 2.91% 19,114 15,484 Maxis 2.71% 2.68% 40,803 14,281 Petronas Gas 2.70% 2.67% 36,409 14,250 IHH Healthcare 2.65% 2.62% 41,306 13,974 IOI Corporation 2.65% 2.63% 27,784 13,986 Hong Leong Bank 2.54% 2.52% 42,180 13,418 Genting Malaysia 2.41% 2.39% 25,786 12,728 Kuala Lumpur Kepong 2.20% 2.18% 26,624 11,606 PPB Group 2.14% 2.12% 23,985 11,280 Hartalega Holdings 1.76% 1.75% 21,193 9,297 Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 1.69% 1.67% 18,938 8,901 Nestle (Malaysia) 1.67% 1.65% 33,815 8,802 Sime Darby 1.63% 1.61% 16,594 8,591 MISC 1.57% 1.55% 25,711 8,259 Petronas Dagangan 1.45% 1.43% 26,048 7,627 Malaysia Airports Holdings 1.43% 1.41% 14,103 7,528 Hap Seng Consolidated 1.18% 1.17% 23,901 6,235 RHB Bank 1.10% 1.09% 20,892 5,823 Telekom Malaysia 0.86% 0.00% 8,681 4,528 Hong Leong Financial Grp 0.80% 0.80% 21,279 4,237 KLCC Prop & KLCC REITS - 0.64% 0.63% 13,721 3,366 STAPLED Top Glove 0.00% 1.82% 14,699 9,698 Source: Maybank KE estimates BY SECTORS: As at 22 Oct 2018 Potential – OUT: TM; IN: Top Glove Petrochem, Petrochem, Glove, 3.6% Gaming, 5.6% Glove, 1.8% 5.0% 5.0% Gaming, 5.6% Plantation, Others, 17.3% Plantation, 8.3% Others, 17.5% 8.3% Telco, 9.5% Telco, 8.6% Utility, 15.0% Utility, 14.9% Banks, 36.8% Banks, 37.2% Source: Maybank KE estimates Source: Maybank KE estimates October 23, 2018 2 Strategy Research NOTES Banks = Public + Maybank + CIMB + HLB + RHB + HLFG Utility = Tenaga + Petronas Gas + Petronas Dagangan Telco = Axiata + Digi + Maxis + Telekom Plantation = Sime Darby Plantation + IOI Corp + KLK Gaming = Genting + Genting Malaysia Petrochem = Petronas Chemicals Glove = Hartalega + Top Glove (potential) Others = IHH + PPB + MISC + Sime Darby + Press Metal + Nestle + Hap Seng + YTL Corp + KLCCP + Dialog + Malaysia Airports Source: Maybank KE estimates FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Series – Ground Rules (updated Oct 2018) Periodic review Para 5.1.1 The semi-annual review of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Series constituents takes place in June and December. The meeting to review the constituents will be held in June and December, using data from the close of business on the Monday 4 weeks prior to the review effective date. Any constituent changes will be implemented after close of business on the third Friday (i.e. effective Monday) of June and December. Para 5.3.3 A security will be inserted at the periodic review if it rises above the position stated below for the relevant index when the eligible Main Market securities are ranked by full market value: - FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI - Risen to 25th or above Para 5.3.4 A security will be deleted at the periodic review if it falls below the position stated below for the relevant index when the eligible Main Market securities are ranked by full market value: - FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI - Fallen to 36th or below Liquidity test Para 4.3.3 A non-constituent which does not turnover at least 0.05% of their shares in issue (after the application of any investability weightings) based on their median daily trading volume per month for at least ten of the twelve months prior to the semi-annual review, will not be eligible for inclusion in the Index. A. An existing constituent which does not turnover at least 0.04% of its shares in issue (after the application of any investability weightings) based on its median daily trading volume per month for at least eight of the twelve months prior to the semi-annual review will be removed. Source: www.ftse.com October 23, 2018 3 Strategy Research Research Offices REGIONAL MALAYSIA HONG KONG / CHINA THAILAND Sadiq CURRIMBHOY WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research Mitchell KIM Head of Research Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Regional Head, Research & Economics (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 (65) 6231 5836 • Strategy • Internet & Telcos [email protected] [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services Desmond CH’NG, ACA Christopher WONG Ornmongkol TANTITANATORN WONG Chew Hann, CA (603) 2297 8680 (852) 2268 0652 (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 Regional Head of Institutional Research [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (603) 2297 8686 • Banking & Finance • HK & China Properties • Power & Utilities • Infrastructure [email protected] LIAW Thong Jung Jacqueline KO, CFA Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] Head of Retail Research ONG Seng Yeow (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional • Consumer Staples & Durables (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470 Regional Head of Retail Research [email protected] (65) 6231 5839 ONG Chee Ting, CA Ricky NG, CFA • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel [email protected] (852) 2268 0689 [email protected] (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Deputy Head • Regional Renewables • Plantations - Regional 66) 2658 5000 ext 1530 • HK & China Properties ECONOMICS [email protected] Mohshin AZIZ Sonija LI, CFA, FRM Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI Deputy Head Suhaimi ILIAS (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] Chief Economist (852) 2268 0641 [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400 • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem Malaysia | Philippines | China • Gaming [email protected] • Energy • Petrochem (603) 2297 8682 YIN Shao Yang, CPA [email protected] Stefan CHANG, CFA Suttatip PEERASUB (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] (852) 2268 0675 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430 CHUA Hak Bin • Technology – Regional [email protected] Regional Thematic Macroeconomist • Media • Commerce TAN Chi Wei, CFA Tony REN, CFA (65) 6231 5830 (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] Termporn TANTIVIVAT [email protected] (852)
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