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The President: Lightning Rod Or King? I
CALABRESI FORMATTED_08-27-06 9/25/2006 11:59:51 PM Steven G. Calabresi and James Lindgren† The President: Lightning Rod or King? i. the powers of a king? There is an idea current in the land today that presidential power has grown to the point where it is a threat to democracy. The New York Times editorial page writers and leading Democrats regularly accuse President George W. Bush of acting like a king or seeking kingly powers.1 In the academic community, Professor Bruce Ackerman has written powerfully about what he sees as the danger that presidential power poses to democracy itself.2 In this Symposium Issue, Professors Bill Marshall3 and Jenny Martinez4 argue that the presidency has become too powerful. Marshall goes so far as to argue for reducing presidential power by separately electing the Attorney General. In this Commentary, we suggest that when political power is examined more broadly, Presidents and their parties generally have less power in the † Professors of Law, Northwestern University. We would like to extend a special thanks to Daniel Lev who was our research assistant on this piece and who did a spectacular job, including preparing and collecting data for the first drafts of Figures 3 and 4. For helpful suggestions, we would also like to thank Andrew Koppelman, Lee Epstein, Gary Lawson, John McGinnis, Jide Nzelibe, and participants at a Northwestern University School of Law faculty workshop. We thank the Julius Rosenthal Fund for financial support. 1. See, e.g., Maureen Dowd, Op-Ed., A Plague of Toadies, N.Y. TIMES, Nov. -
Electoral Order and Political Participation: Election Scheduling, Calendar Position, and Antebellum Congressional Turnout
Electoral Order and Political Participation: Election Scheduling, Calendar Position, and Antebellum Congressional Turnout Sara M. Butler Department of Political Science UCLA Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 [email protected] and Scott C. James Associate Professor Department of Political Science UCLA Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 (310) 825-4442 [email protected] An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 3-6, 2008, Chicago, IL. Thanks to Matt Atkinson, Kathy Bawn, and Shamira Gelbman for helpful comments. ABSTRACT Surge-and-decline theory accounts for an enduring regularity in American politics: the predictable increase in voter turnout that accompanies on-year congressional elections and its equally predictable decrease at midterm. Despite the theory’s wide historical applicability, antebellum American political history offers a strong challenge to its generalizability, with patterns of surge-and-decline nowhere evident in the period’s aggregate electoral data. Why? The answer to this puzzle lies with the institutional design of antebellum elections. Today, presidential and on-year congressional elections are everywhere same-day events. By comparison, antebellum states scheduled their on- year congressional elections in one of three ways: before, after, or on the same day as the presidential election. The structure of antebellum elections offers a unique opportunity— akin to a natural experiment—to illuminate surge-and-decline dynamics in ways not possible by the study of contemporary congressional elections alone. Utilizing quantitative and qualitative materials, our analysis clarifies and partly resolves this lack of fit between theory and historical record. It also adds to our understanding of the effects of political institutions and electoral design on citizen engagement. -
Presidential Elections and the Nationalization of Political Parties in Federal Countries: Comparing Parties and Institutions in Brazil and Argentina
Presidential elections and the nationalization of political parties in federal countries: comparing parties and institutions in Brazil and Argentina André Borges Universidade de Brasília Lucía Burtnik Universidade de Brasília Área temática: Espacio Alacip Trabajo preparado para su presentación en el VIII Congreso Latinoamericano de Ciencia Política, organizado por la Asociación Latinoamericana de Ciencia Política (ALACIP). Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima 22 al 24 de julio de 2015 Introduction Past research on party nationalization has argued that the direct election of the national executive is likely to nationalize party systems. Presidential elections shape the legislative party system whenever there is a coattails effect in that the presidential candidate pulls with him other candidates from the same party label competing at lower level elections. The coattail effect occurs mainly because the presidency is the major political prize in the context of separation of powers and, for that reason, legislative candidates have strong incentives to organize their campaigns around their party's presidential candidate (Samuels, 2003). Specifically, as the number of effective presidential candidates approximates two and presidential and legislative elections are held concurrently, a "Darwinian" effect should follow, selecting those parties most successful in competing for the presidency and mobilizing a national constituency. (Golder, 2006; Shugart, 1995; Shugart and Carey, 1992). According to this reasoning, parties unable to present viable candidates to the presidency are unlikely to survive unless they coalesce around one of the two major contenders in the presidential race. As a consequence, district-level party systems come to resemble each other as well as the national party system, fostering party nationalization (Hickens and Stoll, 2011). -
Running Ahead Or Falling Behind: the Coattail Effect and Divided Government
Running Ahead or Falling Behind: The Coattail Effect And Divided Government Research Project Submitted by: Latisha Younger Western Illinois University American Government, Masters Program [email protected] Abstract In review of the 2000 and 2004 election results, it is abundantly clear that divided government is not a constant, and possibly not mandate of the voting public. Given the recent rise of unified government, it seems that there are several topics in Political Science that should be reconsidered to determine their applicability to this phenomenon and their validity in explaining its continued value as useful research. Understanding this point, the coattail effect and divided government can easily produce a number of questions to utilize for research; however, there are some specific issues to review that relate to the following questions: What has changed about American politics and government that would increase the frequency of unified government? Why has the presence of the coattail effect dwindled in recent years and what is the cause of the decline? Clearly, the study of the coattail effect and divided government may easily produce a great variety of research questions and findings. For this reason, an examination of these questions and the validity of the associated predominant variables are necessary in a time where changes have occurred in relation to culture and politics. Understanding that there are a number of questions still lingering about this area of political study, the following research design focuses on the following question: Do factors like incumbency and the status of the government, as either unified or divided, play a role in decreasing the frequency of the presidential coattail effect? Considering this question, the author of the following research design hypothesizes that within presidential-congressional elections the issue of incumbency and unified government combined will most affect the pulling power of a presidential candidate to win seats for his fellow congressional candidates. -
Virtues and Vices in Presidential Leadership
Constitutional Character: Virtues and Vices in Presidential Leadership The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Thompson, Dennis F. 2010. Constitutional character: virtues and vices in presidential leadership. Presidential Studies Quarterly 40(1): 23-37. Published Version doi:10.1111/j.1741-5705.2009.03752.x Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:9464205 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Open Access Policy Articles, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#OAP Constitutional Character: Virtues and Vices in Presidential Leadership Dennis F. Thompson Harvard University July 2009 Consider two candidates for president. Candidate A while in office has engaged in questionable financial dealings and consorted with criminal types, but is an exemplary family man. Candidate B has had several extra marital affairs, but his financial record is above reproach. Whom should voters choose? Recent candidates may come to mind, but the question actually refers to the 1884 presidential election—the contest between Grover Cleveland and James Blaine. Blaine had corruptly profited from public office but lived an impeccable private life. Cleveland had a reputation for public integrity, but had been forced to acknowledge fathering an illegitimate child. Here is what one of Cleveland’s supporters said in the campaign: I gather that Mr. Cleveland has shown high character and great capacity in public office, but that in private life his conduct has been open to question, while, on the other hand, Mr. -
Ballot Initiatives and Electoral Timing
Ballot Initiatives and Electoral Timing A. Lee Hannah∗ Pennsylvania State University Department of Political Sciencey Abstract This paper examines the effects of electoral timing on the results of ballot initiative campaigns. Using data from 1965 to 2009, I investigate whether initiative campaign re- sults systematically differ depending on whether the legislation appears during special, midterm, or presidential elections. I also consider the electoral context, particularly the effects of surging presidential candidates on ballot initiative results. The results suggest that initiatives on morality policy are sensitive to the electoral environment, particularly to “favorable surges” provided by popular presidential candidates. Preliminary evidence suggests that tax policy is unaffected by electoral timing. Introduction The increasing use of the ballot initiative has led to heightened interest in both the popular media and among scholars. Some of the most contentious issues in American politics, once reserved for debate among elected representatives, are now being decided directly by the me- dian voter. Yet the location of the median voter fluctuates from election to election based on a number of factors that influence turnout and shape the demographic makeup of voters in a given year. This suggests that votes on ballot initiatives may be influenced by the same factors that are known to influence electoral composition. In this paper, I contrast initiatives appearing on midterm and special election ballots with those held during presidential elections, deriving hypotheses from Campbell’s (1960) theory of electoral surge and decline. I examine whether electoral timing does systematically affect results. ∗Prepared for the 2012 State Politics and Policy Conference, Rice University and University of Houston, February 16-18, 2012. -
American Review of Politics Volume 37, Issue 1 31 January 2020
American Review of Politics Volume 37, Issue 1 31 January 2020 An open a ccess journal published by the University of Oklahoma Department of Political Science in colla bora tion with the University of Okla homa L ibraries Justin J. Wert Editor The University of Oklahoma Department of Political Science & Institute for the American Constitutional Heritage Daniel P. Brown Managing Editor The University of Oklahoma Department of Political Science Richard L. Engstrom Book Reviews Editor Duke University Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender in the Social Sciences American Review of Politics Volume 37 Issue 1 Partisan Ambivalence and Electoral Decision Making Stephen C. Craig Paulina S. Cossette Michael D. Martinez University of Florida Washington College University of Florida [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract American politics today is driven largely by deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans. That said, there are many people who view the opposition in an overwhelmingly negative light – but who simultaneously possess a mix of positive and negative feelings toward their own party. This paper is a response to prior research (most notably, Lavine, Johnson, and Steenbergen 2012) indicating that such ambivalence increases the probability that voters will engage in "deliberative" (or "effortful") rather than "heuristic" thinking when responding to the choices presented to them in political campaigns. Looking first at the 2014 gubernatorial election in Florida, we find no evidence that partisan ambivalence reduces the importance of party identification or increases the impact of other, more "rational" considerations (issue preferences, perceived candidate traits, economic evaluations) on voter choice. -
Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy
0/-*/&4637&: *ODPMMBCPSBUJPOXJUI6OHMVFJU XFIBWFTFUVQBTVSWFZ POMZUFORVFTUJPOT UP MFBSONPSFBCPVUIPXPQFOBDDFTTFCPPLTBSFEJTDPWFSFEBOEVTFE 8FSFBMMZWBMVFZPVSQBSUJDJQBUJPOQMFBTFUBLFQBSU $-*$,)&3& "OFMFDUSPOJDWFSTJPOPGUIJTCPPLJTGSFFMZBWBJMBCMF UIBOLTUP UIFTVQQPSUPGMJCSBSJFTXPSLJOHXJUI,OPXMFEHF6OMBUDIFE ,6JTBDPMMBCPSBUJWFJOJUJBUJWFEFTJHOFEUPNBLFIJHIRVBMJUZ CPPLT0QFO"DDFTTGPSUIFQVCMJDHPPE Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy In Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy, Erik J. Engstrom offers an important, historically grounded perspective on the stakes of congressional redistricting by evaluating the impact of gerrymandering on elections and on party control of the U.S. national government from 1789 through the reapportionment revolution of the 1960s. In this era before the courts supervised redistricting, state parties enjoyed wide discretion with regard to the timing and structure of their districting choices. Although Congress occasionally added language to federal- apportionment acts requiring equally populous districts, there is little evidence this legislation was enforced. Essentially, states could redistrict largely whenever and however they wanted, and so, not surpris- ingly, political considerations dominated the process. Engstrom employs the abundant cross- sectional and temporal varia- tion in redistricting plans and their electoral results from all the states— throughout U.S. history— in order to investigate the causes and con- sequences of partisan redistricting. His analysis -
The President's News Conference
Administration of William J. Clinton, 1997 / Jan. 28 The President's News Conference January 28, 1997 The President. Good afternoon. Please be It will also allow a working family to deduct seated. Before I take your questions, I would up to $10,000 a year for taxes for the cost of like to make a brief statement about the bal- any college tuition or job training. And with anced budget that I will send to Congress next our special IRA for education, most parents will week. be able to save for college tuition without ever This budget shows that we can meet two of paying a penny in taxes. our most crucial national priorities at the same In addition, my balanced budget takes further time. It proves we can protect our children from steps to widen the circle of educational oppor- a future burdened by reckless debt even as we tunity. It provides a 25 percent increase in fund- give them the educational opportunities they ing for Pell grants, the largest increase in the need to make the most of the 21st century. maximum scholarship in 20 years, so that over The budget finally moves us beyond the false 4 million students will get up to $3,000 a year. choices that have held us back for too long We'll make 130,000 more students eligible for and shows that we can cut our debt and invest these scholarships, and we will open the scholar- in our children. The budget will help to renew ships to 218,000 older, low income Americans our public schools. -
Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Concurrent Executive and Legislative Elections
Electoral Studies 70 (2021) 102264 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Electoral Studies journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections Lukas Rudolph a,b,*, Arndt Leininger c a LMU Munich, Germany b ETH Zurich, Switzerland c Freie Universitat¨ Berlin, Germany ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Concurrent elections are widely used to increase turnout. We theorize and show empirically how concurrency Concurrency affects electoral outcomes. First, concurrency increases turnout and thereby the participation of peripheral Turnout voters. Second, in combined elections, one electoral arena affects the other. In our case of majoritarian executive Electoral outcomes elections concurrent to proportional representation (PR) legislative elections, the centripetal tendency of Election timing majoritarian elections colors off to the concurrent PR race. Third, concurrency also entails spillovers of the in Second-order elections Quasi-experiment cumbency advantage of executive officeholders to the concurrent legislative race. Drawing on quasi-random variation in local election timing in Germany, we show that concurrency increases turnout as well as council votes for the incumbent mayor’s party and centrist parties more generally, with slightly more pronounced gains for the political left. As a consequence, concurrent elections consolidate party systems and political power by leading to less fragmented municipal councils and more unified local governments. 1. Introduction The classical view is that electoral participation rates are high among socio-economically advantaged and low among disadvantaged citizens. Concurrent elections are a widely used tool to make electoral From this, we could expect that a stimulus to turnout relates to relative participation more convenient and efficientfor citizens. -
A Regression Discontinuity Test of Strategic Voting and Duverger's
Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 2011, 6: 197–233 A Regression Discontinuity Test of Strategic Voting and Duverger’s Law∗ Thomas Fujiwara Department of Economics, Princeton University, USA; [email protected]. ABSTRACT This paper uses exogenous variation in electoral rules to test the pre- dictions of strategic voting models and the causal validity of Duverger’s Law. Exploiting a regression discontinuity design in the assignment of single-ballot and dual-ballot (runoff) plurality systems in Brazilian mayoral races, the results indicate that single-ballot plurality rule causes voters to desert third placed candidates and vote for the top two vote getters. The effects are stronger in close elections and cannot be explained by differences in the number of candidates, as well as their party affiliation and observable characteristics. Political scientists and economists have long been interested in the question of whether citizens vote sincerely or strategically. How voting decisions take place is not only fundamental to the understanding of the demo- cratic process, but also has important implications for the formulation of ∗ The author would like to thank Siwan Anderson, Matilde Bombardini, Laurent Bouton, Nicole Fortin, Patrick Francois, Thomas Lemieux, Benjamin Nyblade, Francesco Trebbi, the editors, two anonymous referees, and participants at the 2009 North American and European Sum- mer Meetings of the Econometric Society for their helpful comments. Financial support from SSHRC, the Province of British Columbia, and CLSRN is gratefully acknowledged. Supplementary Material available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00010037 supp MS submitted 18 May 2010 ; final version received 14 September 2011 ISSN 1554-0626; DOI 10.1561/100.00010037 c 2011 T. -
Theory and Evidence from Entry and Exit of Senators∗
Information Contagion in Coelection Environments: Theory and Evidence from Entry and Exit of Senators∗ Yosh Halberstam† B. Pablo Montagnes‡ September 22, 2010 Abstract It is well-known that the electorate in midterm elections is more ideologically ex- treme than the electorate in presidential elections; yet, surprisingly, we find that United States senators that are elected in midterm elections are consistently more ideologi- cally moderate than those first elected in presidential elections. Furthermore, senators who are ousted or retire from office around presidential elections are significantly more ideologically moderate than those who exit around midterm elections. We propose a theory in which the presence of party labels enables voters to rationally update their beliefs about candidates across contemporaneous races for office. Wide support for a candidate in one race aids marginal candidates from the same party in other races. Our model generates predictions that are consistent with our new findings as well as a broad set of phenomena from the literature and suggests that unbiased public signals, such as party labels, may have unexpected effects on the aggregation of private information and preferences. Our empirical findings illustrate that simple elements of institutional design may not be outcome-neutral and may profoundly impact the extent to which duly-elected representatives reflect their constituents’ preferences. ∗We thank David Austen-Smith, Timothy Feddersen, Thomas Hubbard and William Rogerson, as well as Dan Bernhardt, Mattias Doepke, Ben Jones, Kei Kawai, John Patty, Alessandro Pavan, Erik Snowberg, Francesco Trebbi, Yasutora Watanabe and numerous seminar and conference participants. †Department of Economics, University of Toronto, [email protected] ‡Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago, [email protected] 1 1 Introduction The laws governing the timing of races for public office vary across electoral systems.