Harrisburg Transportation Center
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20 Existing Conditions Harrisburg Transportation Center Transportation Harrisburg Existing Conditions WHERE ARE WE NOW? Probably the most profound projection in table 4 is the 80 per- cent increase in the number of residents 65 and older, who will To create a vision of Pennsylvania’s transportation future, it is im- account for 23 percent of Pennsylvania’s population in 2025. portant to understand who we are, where we have been, where we The staggering increase in the number of elderly will place far- are now, and where we are going. Determining trends in popula- reaching demands on the transportation system as it attempts to tion, age, income, employment and other demographics can help provide for their mobility. By contrast, the number of residents us create and sustain the type of transportation system needed 18 and younger will grow by 8 percent, far less than the national to serve Pennsylvania. average of 21 percent. Trends in Population Pennsylvania ranks fifth in population, with an estimated 12.1 million people. The U.S. Department of Commerce has projected that by 2025, the population will have increased to 14.3 million (see table 4). Compared to most states’, Pennsylvania’s pro- jected growth (1990 to 2025) is modest: 20 percent versus the national average of 29 percent. KEY PENNSYLVANIA POPULATION TRENDS Table 4 Key Pennsylvania Category 1990 2000 2010 2025 % Change Population Trends 1990-2025 Total Population (000s) 11,896 12,413 13,010 14,319 20.0% Age 18 and Below (000s) 2,798 2,947 2,882 3,022 8.0% 18-64 Years (000s) 7,268 7,474 7,935 8,007 10.0% 65 Years and Older (000s) 1,830 1,992 2,193 3,290 80.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1995 21 PennPlan MOVES Regional Population Trends Projected population growth is not uniform across the state, as shown in figures 4, 5, and 6 on this and the next page. In some areas, the population will grow or age faster than in other areas. Knowing where is critical to determining the places in which we must relieve congestion, encourage economic development and provide alternatives to the automobile. PROJECTED PERCENT POPULATION CHANGE FROM 1990 TO 2020 Figure 4 Projected Percent Population Change Population Change (%) from1990 to 2020 -25 to 0 0 to 25 25 to 50 50 to 75 75 to 100 100 to 125 125 to 150 150 to 175 175 to 200 09030 60 Miles Source: U.S. Census Bureau 22 Existing Conditions PERCENT CHANGE IN THE 65-85 AGE GROUP FROM 1990 TO 1996 Figure 5 Percent Change in the 65-85 Age Group from 1990 to 1996 Change in the 65-85 Age Group (%) -20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 09030 60 Miles Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Penn State Data Center PERCENT CHANGE IN THE 85+ AGE GROUP FROM 1990 TO 1996 Figure 6 Percent Change in the 85+ Age Group from 1990 to 1996 Change in the 85+ Age Group (%) -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 50 to 60 60 to 70 0 30 60 90 Miles Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Penn State Data Center 23 PennPlan MOVES Trends in Income and Employment Business and Economic Trends Pennsylvania’s 1996 per capita income of $24,803 (Penn State As the new century begins, Pennsylvania is an economic power Data Center) is close to the national average. In pure ranking, 4 with a bright future (see figure 9 on page 26). Services, finance of the 67 counties, Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery, and manufacturing will be the top activities. The transportation are in the highest 100 counties in the nation in per capita income. system will continue to be the tie that binds the economy and Projected trends in per capita income for the Commonwealth connects it to the rest of the world. show a steady increase in line with the nation’s growth. See the 1995 per capita incomes for Pennsylvania’s counties in figure 7. What Does All This Mean for the Future? Shifts in the economy lead to shifts in where people live and How are population, income, employment and business relevant work. This is clearly evident in the rapid commercial and resi- to transportation? They all translate into patterns of travel and dential growth in the suburbs and rural areas. amount of travel. Travel to work, to shops, to recreation areas, and in the delivery of goods and services has meant more For a look at projected jobs growth by sector in Pennsylvania for vehicles, congestion and demands on Pennsylvania’s trans- the next 45 years, see figure 8 on the next page. portation system. PER CAPITA INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR 1995 Figure 7 Per Capita Income Distribution for 1995 Per Capita Income (1995) 10,000 to 15,000 15,000 to 20,000 20,000 to 25,000 25,000 to 30,000 30,000 to 35,000 35,000 to 40,000 09030 60 Miles Source: U.S. Census Bureau 24 Existing Conditions Figure 8 Projected Employment Trends for Pennsylvania Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Projection for 2045, July 1995 25 PennPlan MOVES Figure 9 Projected Industrial Trends for Pennsylvania Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Projection for 2045, July 1995 26 Existing Conditions WHAT DO WE NOW HAVE? Pennsylvania has an extensive ground, air and water transporta- tion network that connects us with one another, the rest of the nation and the world. Pennsylvania is a transportation leader. We have the nation’s fifth largest transportation-department- owned highway network. We are fourth in the number of air- ports and fourth in total miles of rails converted to trails. We have the world’s largest freshwater and inland ports, at Philadel- phia and Pittsburgh respectively. The state has a large system of intercity bus, passenger rail and freight transportation, and has many miles of bicycle and pedes- trian facilities. The following is an inventory of Pennsylvania’s current transportation system. Horseshoe Curve—Blair County Aviation • 148 public use airports, 344 private use airports, 304 private use heliports. • One state owned airport (Grand Canyon, Tioga County). • Over 23 million scheduled flights annually. Freight Railroads • 70 railroads, most of any state. • 5,600 miles of railroads statewide, over half of which are Class I (owned by a major carrier). • 190 million tons of freight moved annually. 27 PennPlan MOVES Bicycle/Pedestrian Two of these touring routes, Route Z and Route G, are sub- Pennsylvania’s rails-to-trails program is a model for the country: stantially complete. The other four are in various stages of development. • 99 open trails, the most in the nation. • 867 miles of trails, 4th-highest total in the nation. PennDOT Driver and Vehicle Services • Planned trails totaling more than 1,000 miles will be • More than 30 million customer transactions per year; 8.3 completed by December 31, 2000. million licensed drivers; 9.7 million registered vehicles; BicyclePA’s proposed long-distance touring routes, which com- 8,000 new and used car dealers. bine on-road sections with off-road paths, will provide safe, cross- • 18,000 licensed safety inspection stations; 80,000 certified state access for bicyclists. The six routes, shown in figure 10, safety inspection mechanics; 2,800 licensed emission include: inspection stations; 14,300 certified emission inspection mechanics. • 2 east-west, border-to-border routes totaling more than 700 miles. • 72 Driver License Centers, processing 1.4 million transactions per year; 100 on-line messengers, processing • 3 north-south, border-to-border routes totaling more than 1 million transactions per year; 200 on-line dealers, pro- 700 miles. cessing 50,000 transactions per year. • 1 Ohio-to-New York route through Erie County. • A state-of-the-art, contracted, customer Call Center, handling 2.7 million calls per year. Figure 10 BicyclePA Proposed Bicycle Touring Corridors 28 Existing Conditions Intercity Passenger Rail • 5 Amtrak services along 4 lines (see figure 11 on page 30): 1. Capitol Limited—service from Pittsburgh to Washing- ton, D.C., with a stop in Connellsville (Fayette County). 2. Lakeshore Limited—service from Chicago to Boston, with a stop in Erie. 3. Northeast Corridor—service from Washington, D.C., and Baltimore to New York City and Boston, with a stop in Philadelphia (and connecting rail service to the Philadelphia suburbs and Atlantic City). 4. Three Rivers/Pennsylvanian—service from Cleveland to Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Philadelphia, with additional stops at Greensburg, Latrobe, Johnstown, Altoona, Tyrone, Huntingdon, Lewistown, Elizabethtown, Lancaster, Downingtown, Paoli, and Ardmore. Intercity Bus 5. Keystone Corridor—service between Philadelphia and • 1 national and 4 regional carriers operating 18 intercity bus Harrisburg. routes. • 100 trains daily in Pennsylvania. • 2,340 route miles statewide. • 4.2 million passengers annually. • 345,000 passengers annually. “We need a better rail system. We used to use rail here a lot, but we didn’t use it enough to keep them from taking their rail siding out of place. This has been a hurt to small businesses to have so many rail sidings eliminated.” —Pennsylvania businessperson 29 PennPlan MOVES Figure 11 Amtrak Stations in Pennsylvania 30 Existing Conditions Highways and Bridges • 40,500 miles of PennDOT-owned highways. • 119,000 miles of interstate (see figure 12 on page 32), state, and local roads. • 100.4 billion vehicle miles traveled annually. • 25,000 PennDOT-owned bridges. • 6,800 locally owned bridges. Sachs Mill Covered Bridge—Adams County Norman Wood Bridge—Lancaster and York Counties 31 PennPlan MOVES Figure 12 Pennsylvania Interstate and U.S.