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New Leadership in Himachal Pradesh Ends Dominance of Two Clans

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New Leadership in Himachal Pradesh Ends Dominance of Two Clans ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846 New Leadership in Himachal Pradesh Ends Dominance of Two Clans HARISH K THAKUR Harish K Thakur ([email protected]) is with the Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla. Vol. 53, Issue No. 12, 24 Mar, 2018 The anti-establishment tradition was kept alive in the Himachal Pradesh state legislative assembly elections in November 2017 as the Bharatiya Janata Party returned to power, banking upon the issues of crime, corruption, and development. Keeping in view the ground reality of the state, the BJP’s Central Election Committee was forced to declare Prem Kumar Dhumal as its chief ministerial candidate and to lead the election campaign. The elections ushered in a new era in the state’s politics by marking an end to the rule of two dominant clans that had led politics in Himachal Pradesh for about four decades. It can be argued whether Western liberal democracy overwhelms all, but elections in the post- Cold War era have certainly become more marginalised. However, the fear expressed by Kofi Annan in 2015 that elections have failed to resolve deep-seated political and social divisions, and hence, have created doubts about the value of democracy through the ballot box, could be perceived in the Indian scenario too. This lends credence to the discourse that the actual intent of the voter sometimes gets lost in the political imperatives of parliamentary democracy. The communication between the electors and the contestants in the electoral process is subject to several factors. While sociological factors like religion, caste, race, language, and region play a significant role, dynamic factors like the issues of development, governance ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846 and leadership also influence the process. Sometimes, instantaneous factors (at times, engineered) like scams, violence, and war play a decisive role in marginalising the opposition. While sociological factors are important during elections for certain states in India, the dynamic factors play a more prominent role in others. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the two states where elections took place recently, significantly differ in their social and economic landscape. The former has a formidable development lead and a population comprising of Other Backward Classes (OBC) (40%), Scheduled Tribe (ST) (14.75%), Patidar (14%), Dalits (8%) and Muslims (9%). While politics in Gujarat is greatly influenced by these societal divisions, elections in Himachal Pradesh are influenced by different issues. For instance, the Hindutva card played by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had its ramifications in Gujarat, but Himachal Pradesh was impervious to it. Himachal Pradesh is a small state (by area) with a high literacy rate. As per the 2011 census, 50.72% of its population belong to higher castes (32.72% Rajput and 18% Brahmin), 25.22% to Scheduled Castes (SCs) 5.71% to STs, 13.52% to OBCs, and 4.83% belong other communities (Census 2011). The term caste alone is inadequate to represent the socially marginalised in a holistic manner because there are several groups within its fold. These caste micro-dynamics were also visible in the current elections in Himachal Pradesh. The old caste or community equations like Brahmin, Rajput, Girath, Chaudhary, Gaddi, Muslim and Sikh are confined to certain areas and do influence voting patterns at the micro level, but not so significantly at the provincial level. While the upper-caste Rajputs hold sway over the other social groups, Brahmins, SCs and OBCs also comprise a significant part of the state. Elections are mostly centred around issues of governance, development, and livelihood, leaving aside earlier concerns like old and new Himachal, the horticulturist–agriculturist divide, and caste patterns. Politics in Himachal Pradesh broadly has been bipolar for about 40 years with the Congress and the BJP being the chief contenders. Keeping with the decades-long anti-establishment convention, Himachal voted the BJP into power with a thumping majority of 44 seats (48.50% votes as against 38.47% in 2012) out of 68 in the state assembly elections in November 2017 (Table 1A). Himachal Pradesh registered an all-time high voter turnout of 74.61%. In 2007 and 2012, the voter turnout was 71.61% and 73.51%, respectively. Women’s participation (51.34%) was higher than that of men (48.66%). Four third gender voters also cast their votes. The district of Sirmaur witnessed the highest voter turnout (81.05%). Hamirpur district registered the lowest turnout (70.19%). Constituency-wise information shows that Doon in Solan district registered the highest polling at 88.95%, while Shimla Urban recorded the lowest turnout of 63.76% (Table 1B) ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846 Table 1A: Summary Results: Party Standings in Assembly Election 2017 and Gain/Loss Compared with Assembly Election 2012 2017 Political 2012 2012 2017 Vote Swing Seats Won Parties Seats won Votes secured Votes secured since 2012 (Gain/Loss) 14,47,319 Congress 36 21 (-15) 15,77,450 (41.7%) -1.11% (42.81%) Bharatiya Janata 13,00,756 18,46,432 26 44 (+18) +10.03% Party (38.47%) (48.50%) Bahujan Samaj – 39,575 (1.17%) – 13,028 (0.5%) -0.67% Party Communist Party of India – 38,244 (1.13%) 1 (+1) 55,558 (1.51%) +0.38% (Marxist) 2,29,179 (6.89% )+ Others 6 5,55,134 (16.42%) 2 (-4) (NOTA 25,770 -9.53% [0.9%]) Total 68 100% 68 100% Source: Election Commission of India; HP State Election Commission, Shimla Table 1B: District-wise Voter Turnout in Himachal 2017 District Voter Turnout (%) Bilaspur 82.04% Chamba 73.21% Hamirpur 69.5% Kangra 72.47% Kinnaur 75.09% Kullu 77.9% Lahul & Spiti 73.4% Mandi 75.21% Shimla 72.68 % Sirmaur 82% Solan 77.44 % Una 76.45% Total 74.61% Source: Election Commission of India; HP State Election Commission, Shimla The Congress maintained its hold in East Himachal (upper area) where it won 10 out of a total of 19 seats in four districts—Shimla, Solan, Kinnaur, and Sirmaur. However, its overall share reduced from 36 seats in 2012 to 21. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI[M]) emerged as the third-largest party with 1.51% votes, an increase of 0.38% from 2012. Even the None of the Above (NOTA) option introduced by the Election Commission of India in 2014 was exercised by 25,777 voters (0.9%), which is a share more than that of the Bahujan ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846 Samaj Party (BSP), Communist Party India (CPI), or any other party in the fray. What is interesting is that while the swing in the vote bank of the Congress was almost negligible (1.11%), it still cost the Congress 15 seats. The reason is difficult to understand because the vote share of others (independents and 12 national and regional parties in the fray) declined from 16.42% in 2012 to 6.82% in 2017, a decline of 9.53%. This decline shifted the balance in favour of the BJP, which registered an 18-seat gain with a 10.03% increase in the number of votes it received. This further established that the voters had not altered their preference for the BJP since 2014, when all four Lok Sabha seats were won by the BJP. The idea of a third party or front has failed, except in a few instances where there was paltry success. Some examples are the Himachal Log Raj Party that was founded in 1967 by Thakur Sen Negi and J B L Khachi, the Janata Dal led by Vijay Mankotia in 1990, the Himachal Vikas Congress led by Pandit Sukh Ram in 1997, and the Himachal Lokhit Party led by Maheshwar Singh in 2012. Some national parties like the BSP, Samajwadi Party (SP), CPI, CPI(M) and the All India Trinamool Congress have also tried their luck in the state elections in the past, but with no significant gains. The left has been a consistent player in state politics with nominal success. In 2017, the CPI(M) and CPI contested from 14 and 3 seats, respectively, and the vote share of the left increased by 2.09%. Election Campaign The voters seemed to wear a cloak of silence before the elections and did not reveal preferences. When the BJP trumpeted its election slogan Hisaab Mange Himachal (Himachal seeks accountability), the Congress’ slogan in reply was Jawab Dega Himachal (Himachal will respond). Although Prem Kumar Dhumal, who bears an overarching influence in the party, was declared the chief ministerial candidate quite late, the decision proved to be a trump card in the BJP’s convincing victory. The BJP’s central leadership’s experimentation in Himachal Pradesh (along the lines of Uttar Pradesh) and the promotion of J P Nadda as the pivotal man, proved short of success as his rallies initially did not draw in much of the crowd. On the other hand, Dhumal not only rejuvenated the election campaign, but also succeeded in uniting several party members who were peeved over certain ticket allocations. Further, the carpet bombing by party leaders like Narendra Modi, Smriti Irani, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, and chief ministers like Yogi Adityanath, M L Khattar, and Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan in the last week, gave BJP a strong lead in the campaign. Compared to this, the Congress remained a divided house as the relations between Virbhadra Singh (head of the Congress government) and Thakur Sukhwinder Singh (the organisational head) remained strained. The rift was visible and ultimately resulted in the handing over of the election charge to Virbhadra Singh, who deliberately neglected certain areas influenced by the latter during the election campaign. This sent a negative message to the electorate.
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