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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Mainstreaming Disruptive Technologies in Public Disclosure Authorized Energy (P166854) FINAL REPORT Kwawu Mensan Gaba, World Bank Brian Min, University of Michigan Public Disclosure Authorized Olaf Veerman, Development Seed Kimberly Baugh, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Acknowledgments The report was prepared by a team led by Kwawu Mensan Gaba, Global Lead – Power Systems in the Energy and Extractive Industries Global Practice (EEXGP), under the guidance of the Senior Director of the EEXGP, Riccardo Puliti. The work took place under the Infrastructure Vice President Makhtar Diop and his predecessor, the Sustainable Development Vice President, Laura Tuck. The report is the result of a collaboration between the World Bank, the University of Michigan (UM), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Center for Environmental Information (NOAA-NCEI) (formerly National Geophysical Data Center), and Development Seed (software developer). Members of the core Bank team included Trevor Monroe and Bruno Sanchez Andrade Nuno. The UM team led by Brian Min included Zachary O’Keeffe, Htet Thiha Zaw, and Paul Atwell. The NOAA-NCEI team led by Kimberly Baugh included Chris Elvidge (NOAA-NCEI), Mikhail Zhizhin, Feng-Chi Hsu and Tilottama Ghosh from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado. The Development Seed team led by Derek Liu and Olaf Veerman included Vitor George, Alireza Jazayeri, Laura Gillen, Kim Murphy and Ian Schuler. The team is grateful for the guidance received from the peer reviewers, Martin Heger (Economist, GEN05), Tigran Parvanyan (Energy Specialist, ESMAP), Jun Erik Rentschler (Young Professional, GFDRR), Benjamin Stewart (Geographer, GTKM1) and Borja Garcia Senna (Consultant, GEE04). Other colleagues, Dana Rysankova (Global Lead, Energy Access), Rhonda Lenai Jordan-Antoine (Energy Specialist, GEE01), Zubair K.M. Sadeque (Senior Energy Specialist, GEE08) and Varun Nangia (Consultant, GEE07), also provided inputs during the course of this activity and their contribution is greatly appreciated. The methodology and outputs of this analytical work were discussed and disseminated at several events over the past year: (i) Nightlights Panel at the 2018 SatSummit (Washington DC, September 2018), (ii) Launch of the Global Nights Platform on November 15, 2018 (Washington DC), (iii) Launch of the Kenya National Electrification Strategy on December 6, 2018 (Nairobi, Kenya), (iv) World Bank Group Data Day on February 13, 2019 (event sponsored by the WBG Development Data Council), and (v) BBL: Looking in the Dark: Kenya Geospatial and Nightlight Assessment on February 21, 2019. The team is honored that the Interim WBG President & Chief Executive Officer, Kristalina Georgieva, referred to this work as “a very cool platform” in her opening remarks during the WBG Data Day. The team is also very grateful for the various positive feedbacks garnered and support received during these events. Finally, we are grateful for the support of the EEXGP Management Team, who ultimately has the responsibility to create the conducive environment for mainstreaming this innovative approach into energy operations. 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Figures and Tables .................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 5 What has changed since the Detection of Rural Electrification in Africa using DMSP-OLS Night Lights Imagery? ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 Box 1: At broad-scale VIIRS & DMSP data look quite similar but there is no saturation with VIIRS . 11 Box 2: How do the DMSP and VIIRS products differ? .......................................................................... 12 How Did We Improve the Analytical Framework? .................................................................................... 19 Method One: Threshold-Based Classification ........................................................................................ 23 Method Two: Likelihood Estimates of Electricity Access ..................................................................... 28 Validation ................................................................................................................................................ 34 Detecting changes over time ................................................................................................................... 38 What are the New Features in the Global Night Lights Platform? ............................................................. 43 Improving and Iterating .......................................................................................................................... 43 Delivering Data at Scale ......................................................................................................................... 44 Data Service ............................................................................................................................................ 46 Improved Data Model ......................................................................................................................... 46 Flexible Data Ingest ............................................................................................................................ 46 Scalable API ........................................................................................................................................ 47 Extracting High-Resolution Settlement Data .......................................................................................... 47 Constantly Improving ............................................................................................................................. 48 What Possibilities Do We Now Have? ....................................................................................................... 49 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 53 Annex 1: Classification of Electrified Settlements in 33 countries (Method One) ..................................... 55 Sub-Saharan Africa ................................................................................................................................. 55 Middle East and North Africa ................................................................................................................. 66 South Asia ............................................................................................................................................... 67 East Asia and Pacific .............................................................................................................................. 68 Latin America and the Caribbean ........................................................................................................... 70 Annex 2: Data Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 73 Ghana ...................................................................................................................................................... 74 Cote D’Ivoire .......................................................................................................................................... 79 The Philippines ....................................................................................................................................... 81 Rwanda ................................................................................................................................................... 84 Sri Lanka ................................................................................................................................................. 86 Tanzania .................................................................................................................................................. 95 3 Figures and Tables Figure 1: Structure of Global Night Lights program. ................................................................................... 7 Figure 2: VIIRS and DMSP-OLS footprints compared. ............................................................................. 12 Table 1: Comparison between DMSP-OLS and VIIRS DNB .................................................................... 12 Figure 3: Sample VIIRS nighttime lights image. Source: NOAA. ............................................................. 13 Figure 4: Processing of VIIRS Satellite Data by EOG NOAA for Electrification Access Estimates ........ 15 Table 2: Countries with processed data as part of the Global Night Lights program. ................................ 20 Table 3: Data Sources for Subnational Census Data on Electricity Access ................................................ 21 Figure 5: Methods used to determine electrification. .................................................................................. 22 Figure 6: