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The Emperor Has No Clothes: Palestinians and the End of the Peace Process

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The Emperor Has No Clothes: Palestinians and the End of the Peace Process THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES: PALESTINIANS AND THE END OF THE PEACE PROCESS Middle East Report N°122 – 7 May 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. FALSE START .................................................................................................................. 2 A. ABBAS’S SHINING MOMENT ........................................................................................................ 2 B. STALLED MOMENTUM ................................................................................................................. 4 III. FROM ONE TRACK TO ANOTHER .......................................................................... 10 A. REVIVING THE POLITICAL PROCESS? .......................................................................................... 10 B. UNITED NATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 15 C. RECONCILIATION ....................................................................................................................... 21 D. WILD CARDS? ............................................................................................................................ 24 IV. FRAYING TIES BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY .................................................................................................................. 27 V. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 29 A. A COLLECTIVE ADDICTION ........................................................................................................ 29 B. A DIFFERENT WAY FORWARD? ................................................................................................. 30 1. New issues and new constituencies? .......................................................................................... 32 2. A new Palestinian strategy? ....................................................................................................... 33 3. A new international architecture? .............................................................................................. 35 APPENDICES A. MAP OF ISRAEL/WEST BANK/GAZA ................................................................................................. 38 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 39 C. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SINCE 2009 ... 40 D. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 42 Middle East Report N°122 7 May 2012 THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES: PALESTINIANS AND THE END OF THE PEACE PROCESS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Does anybody still believe in the Middle East Peace Pro- much of what has come to be seen as its raison d’être and cess? Nineteen years after Oslo and thirteen years after a would be even more exposed to Hamas’s criticism. final settlement was supposed to be reached, prospects for a two-state solution are as dim as ever. The international But the reason most often cited for maintaining the exist- community mechanically goes through the motions, with ing peace process is the conviction that halting it risks as little energy as conviction. The parties most directly creating a vacuum that would be filled with despair and concerned, the Israeli and Palestinian people, appear long chaos. The end result is that the peace process, for all its ago to have lost hope. Substantive gaps are wide, and it acknowledged shortcomings, over time has become a col- has become a challenge to get the sides in the same room. lective addiction that serves all manner of needs, reaching The bad news is the U.S. presidential campaign, Arab an agreement no longer being the main one. And so the Spring, Israel’s focus on Iran and European financial illusion continues, for that largely is what it is. woes portend a peacemaking hiatus. The good news is such a hiatus is badly needed. The expected diplomatic More than any others, Palestinians have become aware of lull is a chance to reconsider basic pillars of the process – this trap, so have been the first to tinker with different ap- not to discard the two-state solution, for no other option proaches. But tinker is the appropriate term: their leader- can possibly attract mutual assent; nor to give up on ne- ship, in its quest to reshuffle the deck, has flitted from gotiations, for no outcome will be imposed from outside. one idea to another and pursued tracks simultaneously But to incorporate new issues and constituencies; rethink without fully thinking through the alternatives or commit- Palestinian strategy to alter the balance of power; and put ting to a single one. For a time, it seemed that President in place a more effective international architecture. Mahmoud Abbas’s September 2011 speech at the UN General Assembly – resolute and assertive – might pres- For all the scepticism surrounding the ways of the past, age a momentous shift in strategy. But after the Security breaking with them will not come easily. Few may still Council buried Palestine’s application for UN member- believe in the peace process, but many still see significant ship in committee, the logical follow-up – an effort to utility in it. Ongoing negotiations help Washington man- gain support for statehood at the General Assembly – was age its relations with the Arab world and to compensate ignored. After admittance to one UN agency, the leader- for close ties to Israel with ostensible efforts to meet Pal- ship froze further efforts. After refusing negotiations un- estinian aspirations. Europeans have found a role, bank- less Israel froze settlements and without clear terms of rolling the Palestinian Authority and, via the Quartet, reference, Abbas consented to talks. After threatening to earning a seat at one of the most prestigious diplomatic dissolve the PA, central figures waved off the idea and tables – a satisfaction they share with Russia and the UN declared the PA a strategic asset. After reaching a recon- Secretary-General. Peace talks are highly useful to Israel ciliation agreement with Hamas, the two parties reverted for deflecting international criticism and pressure. to bickering. Palestinians suffer most from the status quo, yet even One can fault the Palestinian leadership for lack of vision, they stand to lose if the comatose process finally were yet there is good reason for its irresoluteness. Whatever it pronounced dead. The Palestinian Authority (PA) might chooses to do would carry a potentially heavy price and at collapse and with it the economic and political benefits it best uncertain gain. Negotiations are viewed by a majority generates as well as the assistance it attracts. For the Pal- of Palestinians as a fool’s errand, so a decision to resume estinian elite, the peace process has meant relative com- without fulfilment of Abbas’s demands (settlement freeze fort in the West Bank as well as constant, high-level dip- and agreed terms of reference) could be costly for his lomatic attention. Without negotiations, Fatah would lose movement’s future. His hesitation is all the stronger now that he has persuaded himself that Prime Minister Netan- The Emperor Has No Clothes: Palestinians and the End of the Peace Process Crisis Group Middle East Report N°122, 7 May 2012 Page ii yahu’s positions are incompatible with a two-state solu- the fore. On the other, the issue of the right of return and tion. A decisive Palestinian move at the UN (whether at the Nakba (the “catastrophe” that befell Palestinians in the General Assembly or in seeking agency membership) 1948); the place of the Arab minority in Israel; and, more likely would prompt a cut-off in U.S. aid and suspension broadly, the Palestinian connection to Historic Palestine of tax clearance revenue transfers by Israel. A joint gov- have become more prominent. Within Jewish and Muslim ernment with Hamas could trigger similar consequences communities alike, religion has become more prevalent in without assurance that elections could be held or territo- political discussions, and its influence on peacemaking rial unity between the West Bank and Gaza restored. Get- looms larger than before. ting rid of the PA could backfire badly, leaving many public employees and their families penniless while also As difficult as it is to imagine a solution that addresses leading to painful Israeli counter-measures. these issues, it is harder still to imagine one that does not. If the two sides are to be induced to reach agreement, such The trouble with all these domestic and international jus- matters almost certainly need to be tackled. Israelis and tifications for not rocking the boat is that they are less and Palestinians, rather than refusing to deal with the others’ less convincing and that perpetuating the status quo is not core concerns, both might use them as a springboard to cost-free. A process that is turning in circles undermines address their own. the credibility of all its advocates. It cannot effectively shelter the U.S. from criticism or Israel from condemna- New constituencies. The process for most of the past two tion. Europe can fund a PA whose expiration date has decades
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