Primary and Secondary Schools Roll Projections
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Agenda Item 53 This report is to note. TITLE Primary and Secondary Schools Roll Projections FOR CONSIDERATION BY Schools Forum on 10 July 2019 WARD (All Wards); LEAD OFFICER Deputy Chief Executive - Graham Ebers, Director of Children's Services - Carol Cammiss OUTCOME / BENEFITS TO THE COMMUNITY That there are sufficient primary and secondary school places, that are sufficiently close to homes to promote sustainable travel to school. RECOMMENDATION That Forum notes the contents of the report. SUMMARY OF REPORT The projections indicate that there are sufficient primary school places to meet needs. However, the borough’s strategy for new homes, focused on a small number of large scale developments is expected to mean that there will be a mismatch between where children live and where schools are located. With the exception of the pressures seen in the Shinfield area (and possibly evidenced by the birth ”spike” in Woodley) there has been no immediate surge in demand in areas with rapid housing growth. In summary, to date the lower birth numbers per year after 2012 have been more important than the impact of migration related to the number of new homes built in the borough. At secondary level, the primary bulge is working its way into the secondary sector. However, although the projections indicate that demand will outstrip the available places, the growth may not be so great as to create a requirement for a large-scale expansion programme. The greatest pressure is likely to be seen in the north of the borough, where school expansion could be challenging given site restrictions. There is no shortfall in places this year and the projection indicates this be the case next year (2020/21) too. The council’s plans for the primary sector are to align the availability of places with the new residential geography by creating new primary schools. The schools planned in the next phase of school development may not be viable immediately though, and proposals are set out to ensure that new facilities are used effectively, even if there is no immediate need for additional school places. Additional capacity may be required in the secondary sector, but not until 2021/22 at the earliest. Sixth form capacity may be a longer-term need too, noting that from 2021/22 two 11 to 16 schools will be feeding post 16 students into the local education market. One very large-scale scheme is in development in Grazeley on the western edge of the borough. If this proceeds, it will need both primary and secondary schools. 39 40 Background Primary Phase: Primary phase planning is based on seven planning areas, Earley, North, South East, South West, Wokingham Town East and West and Woodley. For these purposes, the Wokingham Town East and West areas are treated as one, reflecting the ward geography and that the Matthews Green development (where the next potential primary school is sited) sits close to the boundary between the two areas. There are four significant drivers determining the number of children requiring Reception places. These are: births in the borough, the number of children moving into (and out of) the borough after birth, the proportion of children educated in the state sector cross border movement of children Not all of these can be assessed directly, so to understand the likely future need the analysis focuses on four key data sources: Birth data Roll projections 2019 admission round data Planned new housing impact These four data sources are considered individually, and then the individual results are brought together, to create the needs analysis. The projection, summarised by planning area is appended to the report. School level projections will be circulated separately. A) Birth Data: At a borough level, births in the cohort starting school in 2020 are up 6% (114), compared to the cohort starting school in 2019, but this reversed again in the cohort starting school in 2021 (down 5% or 103 fewer births). The graph below (created from aggregated ward data) shows births by academic year (with the year of admission to a Reception class) for different parts of the borough. Although not shown below, the years before 2012 were characterised by higher birth rates than those seen from 2012. 41 Woodley shows an increased number of births, with a sharp spike in 2020. Wokingham Town / Winnersh, the South West, and the South East are relatively static, despite very high levels of house building in Wokingham Town / Winnersh and the South West (with both the Arborfield and South of the M4 SDLs being active in the area). Earley and the North areas exhibit a declining number of births over this period. As with other areas no strong trend has been found over the 2012/13 to 2017/18 period. In Earley the major fall was in the Hawkedon ward, while in the north Remenham and Wargrave and Twyford have seen 60% (47) of the fall in births (78) in this area between them. B) Roll Projections: The Borough projection (table below) indicates there is likely to be sufficient capacity in all years, but with a very low surplus (and so a significant risk of a shortfall) in 2020. This is based on current capacity and does not take account of the planned provision in Alder Grove. With 30 places at Alder Grove the projection is for a surplus of 44 places in 2020. This projection does not expressly model the impact of new housing, it simply takes historic arrival and transition rates and applies them to more recent birth and school roll data. These figures therefore include the immediate impact of new housing completed in 2018. 42 School Year R* Total Reception Net + / - + / - % R +/ - % NC + Year Places Capacity Reception Net / - places Capacity 2018/19 2,097 15,143 2,326 16,287 229 1,144 10% 7% 2019/20 2,202 15,328 2,326 16,287 124 959 5% 6% 2020/21 2,304 15,686 2,326 16,287 22 601 1% 4% 2021/22 2,214 15,827 2,326 16,287 112 460 5% 3% 2022/23 2,138 15,830 2,326 16,287 188 457 8% 3% 2023/24 2,138 15,800 2,326 16,287 188 487 8% 3% 2024/25 2,138 15,785 2,326 16,287 188 502 8% 3% 2025/26 2,138 15,836 2,326 16,287 188 451 8% 3% R is Reception places NC is Net capacity Area projections can be grouped into three broad groups. These are those with significant Reception place deficits (or no surplus capacity) from 2020 onwards: Woodley, 40 Reception place deficit in 2020/21, low (16 in 2021/22) or zero surplus Reception capacity from 2021 onwards and a significant deficit overall. Wokingham Town / Winnersh, 14 Reception place deficit in 2021/22, increasing shortfall in capacity from 2022/23 onwards. In Woodley this points towards a need to plan for additional capacity in 2020 (up to 60 places) and a continuing need for additional Reception capacity, from 2022/23 onwards. In Wokingham Town / Winnersh this points to the need for capacity from 2021/22 onwards. Needs would be met by the planned 1 FE Matthews Green School opening in 2021/22. Areas with possible challenges in one or two years from 2020 onwards: Earley, with a 9 Reception place surplus (2%) projected for 2020/21. South East, with a 10 Reception place surplus (4%) in 2020/21 Neither projection indicates a need to take further action at this stage. At worst this points to a small number of children diverted out of area – possibly to the new Alder Grove School (in Shinfield West) if this opens in 2020. Areas where no shortfalls are projected: South West (where Reception and Net capacity surpluses are just over 10% until 2025/26). North (where Reception and Net capacity surplus places are projected to range from 7% rising to 21% (Reception) and 5% rising to 14% in the period until 2025/26. Of these only the South West area is expected to see significant residential growth C) 2019 admissions round: This is used here as a way of calibrating the most recent roll projections. Although the roll projections are more recent than the admissions data, the roll projections follow a standard methodology (so can be compared across the years) and are driven by older data sets (2018/19 admissions round). Significant variances could indicate that historic relationships have changed. Most specifically, if the 2019 offers are significantly lower than the projection for 2019, this could indicate reduced migration of children into the borough. 43 A note of caution is that the “outcomes” are the position in May 2019, while the projection is for January 2020. Children will move into the borough in the May 2019 to January 2020 period, reducing the discrepancies. Area Reception Projection Offer May Variance - % ge var Places 2019 offers V from projection offers Earley 475 445 404 -41 -10% North 260 241 233 -8 -3% South East 241 248 210 -38 -18% South West 255 228 224 -4 -2% Wokingham Town / Winnersh 690 680 612 -68 -11% Woodley 405 360 364 4 1% Borough 2326 2202 2047 -155 -8% No area shows a significant increase compared to the projection. The North, South West and Woodley area outcomes are within 5% (+ or -) of the projection. The Earley, Wokingham Town and Winnersh and South East areas show markedly lower allocation numbers compared to projections. These figures therefore help validate the projections for the North, South West and Woodley areas but indicate that the Earley, South East and Wokingham Town projections are overestimates (at least for 2019/20).