SUTI REPORT FOR THIMPHU CITY

Sanjeev Mehta UNESCAP 1

Contents 1. Introduction ...... 3 1.1 ...... 3 1.2 Transport sector in Bhutan ...... 4 2. Thimphu ...... 5 2.1 Introduction ...... 5 2.2 Land Use Pattern in Thimphu ...... 6 2.3 Major Transport Networks in Thimphu ...... 7 2.4 Motorisation level and Growth ...... 8 2.5 Travel Pattern...... 10 2.6 Transport sub systems ...... 11 2.6 Urban Transport Governance and Institutions ...... 12 2.7 Demand Management ...... 12 2.8 Major Concerns ...... 13 3. SUTI Index for Thimphu City ...... 13 3.1 Indicator 1: Extent to which transport plans cover public transport, intermodal facilities and infrastructure for active modes ...... 15 3.2 Indicator 2: Modal Share of Active and Public Transport in Commuting ...... 18 3.3 Indicator 3: Convenient Access to Public Transport Service ...... 20 3.4 Indicator 4: Quality and Reliability of Public Transport ...... 21 3.5 Indicator 5: Traffic Fatalities per 100,000 Inhabitants ...... 23 3.6 Indicator 6: Affordability- Travel Cost as a Ratio of Income ...... 24 3.7 Indicator 7: Operational cost of Public Transportation System ...... 25 3.8 Indicator 8: Investment in Public Transportation System ...... 26 3.9 Indicator 9: Air Quality (PM 10) ...... 27 3.10 Indicator 10: Green House Gas Emission from Transport ...... 28 4. Conclusions ...... 29 References ...... 30

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Major Urban Centres in Thimphu ...... 5 Figure 2: Land Use Pattern in Thimphu ...... 7 Figure 3: Thimphu City Transport Circulation System ...... 8 Figure 4: Number of Registered Vehicles in Thimphu ...... 9 Figure 5: Compound annual growth rate of vehicles in Thimphu ...... 9 Figure 6: Modal Transport Share in Thimphu (in %) ...... 10 Figure 7: Trip share, mode wise for workers and students (in %) ...... 11 Figure 8: SUTI Thimphu city spider graph ...... 15 Figure 9: Modal Share in Thimphu City Transportation (in %) ...... 20 Figure 10: Mean Values of the Quality and Reliability Variables of the Public Transport in Thimphu 22 Figure 11: Commuter’s Perception Score on Various Aspects of the Quality and Reliability of Public Transport in Thimphu ...... 23 Figure 12: Trends in Total Traffic Fatality ...... 24 Figure 13: Share of Transport in total household expenditure, income quintile wise ...... 25 Figure 14: Annual Average level of Air Quality Index in Thimphu ...... 28 Figure 15: Monthly Average level of Air Quality Index in Thimphu ...... 28

List of Tables

Table 1: Progress on social indicators ...... 4 Table 2: Quick facts about vehicle density in Thimphu ...... 9 Table 3: SUTI for Thimphu city ...... 14 Table 4: Score and Explanation for each element of the Indicator 1 ...... 17 Table 5: Average number of trips per day ...... 19 Table 6: Population density, major bus stop wise ...... 21 Table 7: Farebox Ratio for City Bus Operators in Thimphu ...... 26

Disclaimer: This report has been issued without formal editing. The designation employed and the presentation of the material in the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed, analysis, conclusions and recommendations are those of the author(s), and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.

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1. Introduction

1.1 Bhutan

Bhutan is a small landlocked mountainous country situated between and , lying between 27.3 N – 28.2 N latitudes and 89 E - 92.3E longitudes, covering a surface area of 38,394 square kilometres. In 2018, Bhutan’s population was 727,145, 62% of its population residing in the rural areas, and the Thimphu alone accounted for 114,551 people, amounting to 15.7% of the total population (RGoB, 2017).

Bhutan’s development philosophy of Gross National Happiness (GNH) represents an alternative approach to development, signifying the need to measure development outcomes in terms of happiness. The framework of GNH stands on four pillars- equitable socio-economic development, preservation of environment, protection of culture and tradition and good governance. Indicators of GNH align very well with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and therefore all the 17 SDGs are integrated with Bhutan’s 12th five-year plan (RGoB, 2018).

Since the inception of five-year plans in 1961, Bhutan has witnessed sharp acceleration in its growth rate as and its GDP has grown at an annual average rate of 7.1 percent between 1981 and 2017. Sustained high growth rates has enabled Bhutan to transition from a low-income country to a middle-income country status. In 2018, Bhutan’s GDP per capita was $3343. High growth along with strong focus on human capital development (Bhutan allocates about 16% of 4 its GDP on education and health) has enabled Bhutan to reduce poverty rate to 8%. Bhutan’s progress on major social indicators is reflected in the table 1.

Table 1: Progress on social indicators

Indicator 1981 2017 Adult Literacy Rate (in %) 10 66.6 Infant Mortality Rate (per thousand) 145 15.1 Life expectancy (in years) 43 70.2 Poverty rate (in %) 36 (in 2000) 8 Crude Birth Rate 41 15.5 Crude Death Rate 21 6.7 HDI value 0.510 (in 2005) 0.612 Source: (RGoB, 2018), (RGoB, 2017), (, 2018)

During the process of planned economic development Bhutanese economy underwent structural transformation in terms of shift away from agricultural sector towards non- agricultural sectors. Such structural transformation was also accompanied by rapid urbanisation, the share of urban population in Bhutan increased from about 8% in 1981 to about 38% in 2017. Urbanisation in Bhutan is characterised by modeli- growth of a dominant urban centre, Thimphu. Rapid urbanisation is accompanied by a new set of challenges, such as, waste management, mounting pressure on infrastructure, growth of slum areas and critical shortage of essential public services such as water supply, sanitation and hygiene. One of the challenges related to urbanisation is to provide a sustainable urban transportation system for continually rising population.

1.2 Transport sector in Bhutan

Transport serves as the life line for an expanding economy. It helps to expand the size of market by enabling the quick and cheaper movement of goods and people. In 2018, transport sector contributed 6.3 percent of GDP as compared to 2.7 percent in 1981. Transport sector is also supporting tourism service in Bhutan, second largest contributor to GDP. Transport sector had a high multiplier effect in the economy, it only shows its high significance to the . Despite its significance to the economy, the transport sector in Bhutan has limited diversity as it consists of only two major modes- road and air transport. Given the importance of tourism and trade, growth transport sector would be vital to maintain the growth momentum (RGoB, 2018). Transport policy states that emerging transport sector should have three basic features- availability, affordability and sustainability. 5

Transport also plays an extremely critical role in addressing the SDGs Transport related targets are included in eight out of the seventeen proposed SDGs (Goals 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12 and 13) and it thus illustrates the cross-cutting role that transport has in sustainable development.

2. Thimphu

2.1 Introduction

Thimphu is the biggest as well as the capital city of Bhutan. Its geographical coordinates are 27.3˚ N latitude and 89.4˚E. It is located in the western part of Bhutan, at an altitude of 2300- 2600 meters above the sea level. Thimphu is situated on a narrow Wangchu river valley running 17 km north south direction, and three km east west direction. It is spread over 26.13 sq km area. Thimphu is divided into seven sub divisions (Demkhongs)- Norzim (the core city area), Motithang, Kawang, Changangkha, Olakaha-Changzamtok, Babesa-Semtokha, and Taba- Dechencholling.

Figure 1: Major Urban Centres in Thimphu

Source: Thimphu Structure Plan 2002-27

Thimphu besides being the administrative capital is also the commercial capital of the country. It contributes about 45% of Bhutan’s GDP. Almost 46% of the total business enterprises in Bhutan are located in Thimphu. Tourism and hospitality business are major economic activity in Thimphu. In 2018. In 2018, 274,097 tourists visited Bhutan, of which 98% also visited 6

Thimphu. This means that for each normal resident in Thimphu there were 2.3 tourists in Thimphu.

Mean annual household income in Thimphu is about BTN 125,000, poverty rate is only 0.4% and unemployment rate is 6.4%. While the incidence of urban poverty is negligible, the unemployment rate in Thimphu is almost three times higher than the national average.

Thimphu has witnessed unprecedented in-migration in the last two decades because of its significance to the national economy. Thimphu city has grown both in term of size of population and area. Population of Thimphu has increased from 30,000 in 1981 to 79,185 in 2005, and further to 114,551 in 2017, compounding annually at 3.8 percent over last 36 years, as compared to 1.8 percent for the total population of Bhutan. During these years, human settlement in Thimphu has also expanded beyond the central place towards new suburbs that spread over areas which erstwhile were not the part of Thimphu city.

2.2 Land Use Pattern in Thimphu

Thimphu is spread over 26.2 square km. The current land use pattern is shown in the figure 2. Forests, agriculture and orchards together account for 45% of the total land in Thimphu. About 1.5% of the land is used for commercial purposes. Residential and institutional uses account for 26.5% of the land. Along with the rapidly rising population, shortage of land for residential and commercial uses has become more acute. Rising scarcity of land has contributed to escalation of rent and rapid disappearance of agricultural land. Roads account for only 3% of the land as compared to the ideal share at 10%.

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Figure 2: Land Use Pattern in Thimphu

19 20 18 18 15.5 14.5 16 14 11 12 8.5 10 7 8 6 3 4 2 2 0

Source: Derived from Thimphu Structure Plan 2000-27

Commercial centres are concentrated in the core city. Residential use of land has expanded to the outskirts of southern and northern corridors.

2.3 Major Transport Networks in Thimphu

Topographical feature of Thimphu has also contributed to the growth pattern of its transport circulation system. Thimphu is situated on a narrow Wangchu river valley running north to south, with limited scope for spread east and westwards. The major road network runs approximately 17 km across the valley, while secondary roads and pathways forms the tributary transport circulation system to connect the western and eastern hubs to the major transportation line (refer figure 3). At present, the running length of the road networks in Thimphu is about 270 km. About a fifth of primary and secondary roads also have pedestrian networks (covering 47 km running length). In the absence of trains and ferries, road transportation is the only mode of public transportation system in Thimphu. Walking, an active mode of transportation, continues to occupy a position of significance in Thimphu.

Thimphu city road network consist of four tier system- urban corridor, primary roads, secondary roads and access streets. The urban corridor runs north south direction. The urban corridor is well developed along the southern part, known as express highway but has not well developed in the northern area. Primary roads connecting east west sides to the urban corridor 8 are less developed. Express highway divides the southern part of the city in two halves, without sufficient crossing, flyovers or subways.

Within the city, the road network features six parallel streets; Dechhen Lam, Chhogyal Lam, Norzin Lam, Doebum Lam, Chang Lam and Rabten Lam. Urban corridor in the central city passing through major streets like Norzin lam and Chang lam are heavily congested. Average speed in the central city is less than 20 km per hour as compared to 40 km per hour on express highway. The road network in the central city does not have scope for widening and expansion and consequently one-way traffic rule is applied to avoid overcrowding.

Figure 3: Thimphu City Transport Circulation System

Source: Thimphu Structure Plan 2002-27

2.4 Motorisation level and Growth

Supply for city public transportation failed to keep pace with the growing needs of the commuters. At present, approximately 56,000 people commute daily in Thimphu. A fleet of 56 city buses, 3024 taxis, 36567 private cars, 1591 government cars and 3334 two wheelers support the commuting exercise (RGoB, 2019). Thimphu accounts for about 52 percent of the total vehicles registered in Bhutan. Number of registered vehicles in Thimphu has grown from 8712 in 1990 to 54,661 in 2019, compounding annually at a rate of 6.8 percent. The annual compound growth rate of vehicles in Thimphu has consistently accelerated from 4.6 percent during 1990-2005, to nine percent in 2015-18 (refer figure 4). A simple regression estimate 9 suggests that in Bhutan one percent rise in GDP causes vehicles numbers to rise by 0.15 percent. This implies that economic growth associated rise in living standards also raises the need for vehicles.

Figure 4: Number of Registered Vehicles in Thimphu

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Derived from statistical yearbooks of Bhutan for various years and MOIC report 2019

Figure 5: Compound annual growth rate of vehicles in Thimphu

10.00%

8.00%

6.00%

4.00%

2.00%

0.00% 1990-2019 1990-2005 2010-2015 2015-18

Source: Derived from statistical yearbooks of Bhutan for various years and MOIC report 2019

Table 2: Quick facts about vehicle density in Thimphu

• Every third person in Thimphu own a vehicle

• There are 165 vehicles per KM of roads in Thimphu

• There are 447 registered vehicles for every 1000 persons in

Thimphu • Fuel consumption per vehicle per year in Thimphu 470 litres

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Public transport is strongly dominated by a public sector entity, Bhutan Postal Corporation Limited. Bhutan Postal Corporation Limited runs city bus on 15 routes with a fleet of 49 buses and controls about 99 percent of market for public motorised transportation in Thimphu. Government provides subsidy to Bhutan Postal Corporation to ensure its financial sustainability. In the fiscal year 2017-18, the volume of subsidy was BTN 45.4 million, constituting about 44 percent of the total cost.

2.5 Travel Pattern

Mode share in Thimphu is shown below (refer Figure 6) reflects that about 49 percent commuters use private cars, 2.8 percent people use government cars, and 9.7 percent use taxi for commuting activity. Only 15 percent of the commuters use city bus services. High preference for personalised motor transport has strained the traffic movement in the city. Unabated rise in the imports of cars, despite government efforts to contain the imports through high taxes and restricted flow of private credit, can have severe ramification on its sustainability. Active and public transport modal share accounts for 36.8 percent of total commuting activity, which is less than half of the share in (75.5 percent). Walking remains the second most popular mode (22 percent), largely due to habit as well as the shortcuts routes allowed by mountainous terrain. Walking mode is primarily used by school going children.

Figure 6: Modal Transport Share in Thimphu (in %)

14.9 21.9

1.2 9.7 2.8

48.8

City Bus Taxi Private car Govt. car TW Walk

Source: researcher’s estimation

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Trips by Purpose analysis reflects that 45.7% of the commuters in Thimphu are students and 54.2% are workers. Trip wise share of different modes for workers and students is shown in the figure 7. Walk mode is for students is more than the double of workers. This is because of the preferences for schools that are close to the home, especially for lower- and middle-income groups. Private cars remain the most used modes.

Figure 7: Trip share, mode wise for workers and students (in %)

60.0 57.0

50.0

39 40.0 31 30.0

19 20.0 14.1 11.5 10.2 9 10.0 5.2 0 0.1 1.5 0.0 City Bus Taxi Private car Govt cars Inst Bus Walk

Workers Students

Source: researcher’s estimation

2.6 Transport sub systems

Thimphu city public transportation system is conspicuously different from other cities in South and East Asia, in the sense that otherwise ubiquitous modes such as tempos, three wheelers, rikshaws and auto rikshaws are non-existent.

Pedestrian movement system, the footpaths, links the primary roads to urban corridors as well as secondary roads to the primary roads. In central city, the footpaths are at least 1.2-meter- wide, but appear narrow due to overcrowding.

Pedestrian crossings (Zebra crossings) allow people to safely cross the roads. However, the express highway does not have easily accessible pedestrian crossing and subways system. Although bicycle is not very popular mode due terrain related factors, exclusive cycle lanes are almost non-existent. Absence of exclusive cycle lanes also prevent the use of cycles. 12

2.7 Urban Transport Governance and Institutions

The provides the basic legal framework for all the government institutions. The Local Government Act 2007 provided mandate for as the local government for the ‘class A’ cities. Thimphu Thromde is an autonomous body that determines development of city infrastructure and all the issues related to urban planning are within the mandate of Thromde. Thromde also need to consult and seek assistance from the Ministry of Works and Human Settlement. Thimphu city transport system is also regulated and supported by Road Safety and Transport Authority (RSTA) and Thimphu Traffic .

Thimphu Structure Plan 2002-2027 and National Transport Policy 2017 provides framework for transport planning and development Thimphu city transport infrastructure. National Transport Policy 2017 aims “to provide the entire population with a safe, reliable, affordable, convenient, cost effective and environmentally friendly transport system in support of strategies for socioeconomic development”

Currently, the major urban transport plan as part of shift strategy is to construct a Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) system. BRT project aims to develop a four-lane expressway dedicated to city buses to connect Ngabi Rongchu in the South to Dechencholing in North Thimphu. This system will help in reaching their designation on time and reduce traffic congestion. The project is likely to get delayed due to funding gaps.

The plan is also to shift from carbon fuel-based vehicles to electric vehicles but due to people choices and implementation issues the shift is not realised.

2.8 Demand Management

The Core Area of Thimphu was formed before motorization and the city did not prepare sufficient parking space to accommodate a large number of vehicles. Under this condition, the roadside space is used as on-street parking. Currently, Thimphu Thromde manages about 1,500 slots of on-street and off-street parking and outsources the collection of time-based parking fees to private companies. A five story multi parking facility is developed by the Thromde and 13 is now almost ready for use. This project is developed through Public Private Partnership mechanism. This may help to free the space on the centre city road for vehicle movement.

2.9 Major Concerns

Due to rapid growth of population and number of vehicles, the pressure on the transport infrastructure is rising in Thimphu. Given the limited scope for road widening and with ever rising vehicle numbers, the central city is likely to face severe traffic congestion and traffic system may get paralysed if vehicle number keeps on expanding unabated. Limited parking place in the city has also added to the congestion. Unless the modal structure shifts in the favour of public and active transport, the city transportation cannot be prevented from a collapse. The problem is exacerbated by the limited preference for vehicle pooling among the commuters. Due increased stress related to traffic congestion, the number of traffic accident is on the rise.

A majority of bus stops do not have dedicated bays and information on bus timing is also not displayed. This is perceived to be a major issue related to the quality and reliability of city bus services in Thimphu.

3. SUTI Index for Thimphu City

Overall Sustainable Urban Transport Index (SUTI) for Thimphu is 54.5, which is medium in its range1. Thimphu scored below par on four indicators-2, 3, 5 and 7. Highest score was recorded for air quality and green house emission as captured by indicators numbers 9 and 10 respectively (refer table 2).

1 Applying the HDI criteria, from whom the SUTI is designed, means that score between 50-80% shall be treated as medium. 14

Table 3: SUTI for Thimphu city S.no Indicators Score

1 Extent to which transport plans cover public transport, intermodal 68.75 facilities and infrastructure for active modes

2 Modal share of active and public transport in commuting 33.50

3 Convenient access to public transport service 40.96

4 Public transport quality and reliability 51.57

5 Traffic fatalities per 100.000 inhabitants 38.89

6 Affordability – travel costs as share of income 73.02

7 Operational costs of the public transport system 44.09

8 Investment in public transportation systems 60.26

9 Air quality (pm10) 78.36

10 Greenhouse gas emissions from transport 79.80

SUTI Index 54.46

Source: Researcher calculation

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Figure 8: SUTI Thimphu city spider graph

Source: Author’s derivation

3.1 Indicator 1: Extent to which transport plans cover public transport, intermodal facilities and infrastructure for active modes

Although a master plan for the Thimphu city transportation does not exist, its elements are covered by multiple plan documents. Bhutan’s national transport policy (RGoB, 2018) states that emerging transport sector should have three basic features- availability, affordability and sustainability. To evaluate the outcome on this indicator a detailed desk review of the following documents was undertaken-

1. Bhutan transport 2040: Integrated Strategic Vision. ADB (2013) 2. National Transport Policy (second draft) 2017, GNHC, RGoB 16

3. Thimphu Structural Plan 2002-2027. Ministry of Works and Human Settlement, RGoB 4. City Bus Access Project, Project Information Document 2016. World Bank 5. Bhutan Green Transport Programme, Project Preparation and Funding Application 2019 6. Bhutan Sustainable Low-emission Urban Transport Systems, Project Identification Form. 7. World Bank, GNHC and MOIC. 2016 8. Energy Efficiency in Transport Sector, Dept. Of Renewable Energy, 2015, MOEA, RGoB 9. Eleventh Five-year Plan (2013-18): Local Government Plan (Vol III), GNHC 2013 Eleventh Five-year Plan (2013-18): Local Government Plan (Vol III), GNHC 2013 10. Twelfth Five-year Plan (2018-23): Thimphu Thromde, Local Government Plan (Vol III), GNHC 2019

Analysis is made by enlisting and matching the objectives, SMART indicators and allocation of financial resources for each of the indicator identified in various documents. Funding for each element was identified using Thimphu Thromde specific 12th five-year plan document. It would be important to note that any single document by itself does not cover every element of assessment rubric provided in the updated SUTI data collection guidelines, 2018. Rubric was used for deciding score on each of the four elements covered by this indicator.

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Table 4: Score and Explanation for each element of the Indicator 1

Aspects Explanation Score

I) walking networks (*) National Transport policy specify the objective to 3 promote walk and other NMT modes. Thimphu Thromde 12th FYP (2018-23) sets a specific physical target to expand footpath length, its coverage as well as allocates budget. Budget is clubbed with other targets; hence it leaves room for under allocation of budget than required to achieve physical targets. II) cycling networks (**) Not covered, due to terrain related limitations. 2

III) intermodal transfer The policy aims to create a synergetic infrastructure to 3 facilities (***) develop walk and city bus mode. It aims to achieve it by expanding the coverage of safe footpaths, target defined and budget allocated. IV) public transport Sets a physical target for expanding the share of city 3 (****) buses to more than 50% by the end of 12 FYP- BRT infrastructure development, budget is allocated but does not seems sufficient; Construction of new bus stops- actual numbers of stops to be constructed is not identified, yet budget allocated. Total (sum) 11

Source: Desk review

Normalised score for indicator 1 is 68.75, which is a medium achievement. On most elements the physical indicators are identified but some the physical targets, like construction of bus stops are not identified. In such cases it is not possible to assess sufficiency of funds allocated. In some cases, funds are allocated to achieve clubbed targets and therefore lack clarity on both physical and financial targets. It is suggested that a separate Thimphu city transportation plans should be developed that serves to determine the priorities, target indicators and also allocation of resources. In its current format city transportation plan seems to be determined by a top down approach to planning. Such practice may not be compatible with sustainability goal.

Assessment of the transport policy provides indication that Bhutan’s approach to sustainable transport is largely based on shift and improve strategy but lack a clear strategy to achieve desired goals. Shift strategy is captured by the policy objective to promote walking and use of city bus (public transportation). Although the government has planned construction of Bus Rapid Transport (BRT), it lacks a clear policy framework to bring about the shift. Budgetary resources of BTN 170 million allocated for the BRT over 12th five-year plan period (2018-23) 18 is not sufficient. In the absence of a well-defined project cost and a clearly identified timeline to complete the project, it may be a challenge to achieve the goal.

Use of ‘Improve’ strategy is reflected in the goal to promote green transportation system through the use electrical vehicles. The government has imposed a green tax on the import of petrol and diesel vehicles to make them less attractive. Yet these measures have not worked out favourably due to lack of a well-designed financial and other logistic plan to support purchase and use of electric vehicles, which are almost three to four time more expensive than base level petrol vehicles. Even the loan policy of the commercial banks does not support purchase of more expensive electrical vehicles.

3.2 Indicator 2: Modal Share of Active and Public Transport in Commuting

To construct this indicator recent baseline information- Data Collection Survey on Urban Development and Environment in The Kingdom of Bhutan 2014: Final Report. JICA, was used for making basic assumptions on occupancy rate and number of trips made per day. However, for number of trips per day information obtained from the stakeholder consultation was also used. No of trips made each day by each vehicle type was calculated using following formula-

푛 N = ∑ (푣 × 푡푑 × 표푟) 푘=0

N= Number of trips per day, V= number of ith vehicle, td= mean number of trips per day and or= mean occupancy rate

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Table 5: Average number of trips per day

COMMUTING PURPOSE

(WORK AND EDUCATION) MODE # subtotals a. Scheduled bus and minibus (*) 8400.000 b. Train, metro, tram 0.000

c. Ferry 0.000 d. Public transport (a+b+c) 8400.00 e. Walking 12292.0000

f. Bicycle 0.0000 g. Active transport (e+f) 12292.00 h. Passenger car 34459.0000

i. 3W - Private 0.0000

j. Shared Auto (Informal PT) 0.000 k. Motorcycle 674.0000

l. Institutional Buses and Auto Rickshaws 405.0000 0.0000 m. Other motorized (trucks,etc) n. Individual motorized (**) (i+j+k+l+m) 35538.00

o. Total (e+h+o) 56230.00 p. Public and active (e+h) 20692.00

q. Modal share of active and public transport 36.8 Source: Author’s derivation

In 2019, commuters in Thimphu made 56230 trips per day, while 20962 trips were made using active of public modes of transportation. Active and public mode of transportation constitutes about 36.8 percent of the total commuting trips a day. 63.5 percent of the commuters’ trips are made using personalised motor transportation. Thimphu scored very low on this indicator- 33.5. Higher use of personalised vehicles is not good for the sustainable feature of the urban transport.

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Figure 9: Modal Share in Thimphu City Transportation (in %)

14.9 21.9

1.2 9.7 2.8

48.8

City Bus Taxi Private car Govt. car TW Walk

Source: Author’s derivation

Modal share of Thimphu city transportation is shown on in the figure 9. 48.8 percent of the city transport in Thimphu is undertaken using personal vehicles. City bus contributes to 15 percent of the city transportation, while walking makes up for 21.9 percent.

Analysis of modal share also indicates that the current pattern promotes energy inefficiency, causes traffic congestion, pollutes environment and pushes up the economic, personal and social costs of commuting.

3.3 Indicator 3: Convenient Access to Public Transport Service

Extent of the use of public transport is primarily determined by the access to such services. Greater use of public transport helps the modern cities to foster sustainability. It is defined as “Proportion (percentage) of the population that has convenient access to public transport, defined as living 500 meters or less from a public transport stop with minimum 20-minute service.” It is consistent with SDG goal number 11.2 -“By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all”. Methodological framework suggested in the ‘Final Monograph Series on Urban Transport 2017’ is used to construct this indicator. Population within 500-meter walking distance from major bus stops was obtained from a report (JICA, 2014). 21

There are 40 city bus stops in Thimphu, but most of them serve a very small catchment area. Only 15 of them can be defined as major stops because of the larger catchment area. About 60442 inhabitants are covered within a radius 500 meter of major bus stops, constituting about 52.8 percent of Thimphu population (Refer table 6). Normalised score for this indicator is 40.96, which can be defined as low performance. Poor performance on this indicator reflects that number of bus stops in Thimphu are not large enough and tend to adversely affect ease of access to public transport services.

Table 6: Population density, major bus stops

Major stops Population Area in Density Share in Inhabitants SQ KM Of population population (In %) per SQ KM Babesa 5678 2.38 2386 5.1 1874 Simtokha 8347 3.3 2529 7.5 1987 Lungtenphu 4986 3.3 1511 4.5 1187 Changjiji 9686 1.8 5381 8.7 4226 Changzamtog 11086 0.9 12318 9.9 9674 Yangchenphug 1415 1.3 1088 1.3 855 Core city 11370 1 11370 10.2 8930 Changangkha 4190 1.5 2793 3.8 2194 Lower Motithang 8900 1 8900 8.0 6990 Upper Motithang 9468 1 9468 8.5 7436 Zilukha+Kwasangjangsa 1871 0.7 2673 1.7 2099 Hejo Samteling Langjophaka 10980 2 5490 9.8 4312 Dzong Precinct 667 0.8 834 0.6 655 Taba Jongshina 15944 2.3 6932 14.3 5445 Dechencholing 6893 2.1 3282 6.2 2578 Royal Precinct 0 0.8 0 0 0 111481 26.18 4258 100 60441 Source: Author’s Calculation

3.4 Indicator 4: Quality and Reliability of Public Transport

Although ease of access to public transport is an important prerequisite for sustainable urban transport, its actual use is also determined by the quality and reliability of the public transport system. Better service delivery also enables the bus operators to attract riders and also enable them to make the venture financially profitable. 22

To construct this indicator, a survey of commuters was undertaken. Sample size for this study is 125. Overall score on quality and reliability of public transport is 63.3 percent. Riders rated the fare of city buses as very reasonable and the total score on the fare is 82.9 percent. This is quite expected as the government tends to subsidize the city bud services provided by the Bhutan postal corporation. The commuters have rated the aspects of convenience of bus stops, availability of information and comfort and cleanliness the lowest, however the overall score is still more than 50 percent. Fact that personal vehicles are the most preferred mode for commuters does not seem to be affected by the quality and reliability of city buses in Thimphu. It is more like to be affected by the complex behavioural aspect that make personal vehicles a prestige good.

Figure 10: Mean Values of the Quality and Reliability Variables of the Public Transport in Thimphu

82.9 90.0 77.1 80.0 67.7 60.0 63.3 70.0 59.4 55.3 54.3 60.0 51.5 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Source: Survey undertaken by the author

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Figure 11: Commuter’s Perception Score on Various Aspects of the Quality and Reliability of Public Transport in Thimphu

Fare

Courteous staff

Availability of information

Convenience at bus stop

Safety

Comfort/Cleanliness

Punctuality

Frequency

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Source: Survey undertaken by the author

3.5 Indicator 5: Traffic Fatalities per 100,000 Inhabitants

Sustainable public transportation needs to be safe for the users. SDG target 3.6 aims to reduce traffic related death and injuries to less than half by 2030. In Bhutan, all the cases of traffic accidents are reported to traffic police and the records are kept and published by the Ministry of Information and Communication. For this study the same source is used for the construction of this indicator.

On this indicator, Thimphu scored its worst at 38.9. This reflects that Thimphu has performed low on this indicator. Despite low score on this indicator, Thimphu has made significant improvement in controlling the incidence of traffic accidents and fatalities.

Rising number of vehicles, increasing driving licence holders, narrower roads and mounting traffic congestion has become a major cause of increased incidence of traffic accidents in Thimphu. However, the number of traffic fatalities has not risen. Intertemporal trends of traffic 24 fatalities reflect that as the cases are rising alarmingly in the country, Thimphu has witnessed a decline in the fatality rates. In 2018, 460 cases of motor vehicle accidents were reported in Thimphu, leading to 7 deaths and 143 injuries. Trends reflect an improvement over 539 cases of traffic accidents, 8 deaths and 177 injuries reported in 2015. It very clear that Thimphu city roads are becoming safer for the commuters. Despite all the odds, these achievements are due to an active and effective role played by relevant authorities in Thimphu.

Figure 12: Trends in Total Traffic Fatality

150 135 99 105 104 100 76 59 50 6 10 8 10 13 7 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thimphu Bhutan Source: Derived from MOIC Annual Statistical Bulletins 2014 to19

3.6 Indicator 6: Affordability- Travel Cost as a Ratio of Income

Affordability is an important feature of sustainable public transport. Transport constitutes an important share of the house hold expenditure. It consists of spending on purchase of vehicles, its maintenance and fuel, and also the commuting fare. A Consumer expenditure survey in USA reveals that share of transport in household expenditure was about 17.5 percent in 2017 (Bureau of Labour Statistics USA, 2019).

This indicator was constructed using secondary data obtained from three major sources-

• Data on Mean monthly household income in Thimphu was sourced from twelfth Five- year Plan (2018-23): Thimphu Thromde, Local Government Plan (Vol III), GNHC 2019. • Number of monthly ridership in city bus was obtained from the information derived from the consultation with the city bus operators and City Bus Schedule Supplied by the Bus Operators

25

Findings of this study reflects that average monthly transportation cost for commuters using city bus is about 12 percent of their income. Normalised score for this indicator is 73.02, which can be interpreted as a high medium performance.

A separate study undertaken using data from Bhutan Living Standard Survey 2017 reveals that lower income quintiles in Thimphu devote a smaller fraction of their total expenditure on transport and higher income quintile devote a larger fraction of their total expenditure on transportation (refer figure). Poorest income quintiles allocate only about five percent of their expenditure on transport as compared to 19 percent by the richest income quintile. Lower burden on poor quintile may not have desired welfare effect of public transportation as they usually prefer active mode. In Thimphu, city bus services are largely subsidised and people have also rated the fare of city buses as affordable (refer indicator 4).

Figure 13: Share of Transport in total household expenditure, income quintile wise

25 19.3 20 15 10.2 10 7.2 8.1 5.3 5 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

Source: derived from BLSS 2017

3.7 Indicator 7: Operational cost of Public Transportation System

Ability of the public transportation operators to provide an easily accessible, affordable, efficient and sustainable service depends on the magnitude of the operating cost. Higher operational cost creates trade-off between affordability, efficiency and sustainability. Higher operational cost affects the operator’s ability to remain profitable and affordable, provide efficient services and also improve the services. Subsidisation may only improve affordability but would adversely affect other features of a sustainable transport.

This indicator was constructed using information derived from consultation with the city bus operators in Thimphu. 26

Normalised score for Thimphu on SUTI indicator number 7 is 44.1, which implies a low performance.

At present, there are four city bus operators in Thimphu. Bhutan Postal Corporation Limited is in fact enjoys perfect monopoly power as it controls about 98.8 percent of the market share. Yet, it covers only 56% of its cost and make losses on this business (refer table 7). The Royal Government of Bhutan subsidizes to ensure the financially viable of Bhutan Postal Corporation. In 2018, the government subsidy to Bhutan Post Corporation amounted to BTN 45.1 million. The remaining three private operators are only fringe players but are able to keep their business profitable by managing operating cost more effectively as reflected by high farebox ratios2 as shown in table 6. Yet, it would be wrong to use higher farebox ratio as an indicator of higher efficiency. Unlike private operators who operate on the high demand routes, Bhutan Postal Corporation also operates on non-viable low demand routes in order to extend this important public service purely from the welfare perspective. This brings into consideration a long-standing trade-off between efficiency and equity and also the need to find a working harmony between the two objectives to make transportation system sustainable.

Table 7: Farebox Ratio for City Bus Operators in Thimphu

Operator Market Farebox shares ratio Bhutan Postal Corporation 98.8% 56% Limited Lama Transport 0.6% 179% Bumpa Transport 0.4% 168% K Wangyal Transport 0.2% 179% Source: derived from information obtained from consultation with city bus operators

3.8 Indicator 8: Investment in Public Transportation System

Investment in the public transportation system in a city is necessary to achieve desired objectives and also to maintain similar service standards in the face of rising population pressure. This indicator is constructed by taking into account percent of transport investment spending on a five yearly average basis.

Data for this indicator was obtained from two sources-

1) Eleventh Five-year Plan (2013-18): Local Government Plan (Vol III), GNHC 2013

2 Farebox ratio measures the ratio of fare revenue to the operating cost. It is a quick index of profitability. 27

2) Consultation with City Bus Operators in Thimphu

For a five-year period covering the eleventh five-year plan (2013-18), BTN 346.7 million were allocated for Thimphu city public transportation. A key feature of the investment in public transport sector was conspicuous absence of private investment. Five year running average share of investment in public transport facilities in total transport investment was 30.1 percent. Normalised score on this indicator is 60.2, which is equivalent of a medium performance.

Investment in public transport infrastructure in Thimphu was entirely made by the public sector. This is a worrying trend as complete dependence on public sector for investment in this vital sector of the economy in not sustainable. Private participation, including foreign investment needs to be promoted as a key mechanism to mobilise needed resources to speed up the progress and achieve targets in timely manner.

3.9 Indicator 9: Air Quality (PM 10)

This indicator is used for SUTI in order to monitor SDG Target 11.6 “reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management”. This indicator is constructed using two major sources of information-

1) Brief Update on Ambient Air Pollution Monitoring Activities in Bhutan, 2017 National Environment Commission, Bhutan 2) Statistical Year Book 2018, National Bureau of Statistics, Bhutan.

The air quality index shown in figure 14 reflects that PM 10 level in Thimphu has increased significantly since 2008. Although the concertation of PM10 is below national benchmark of 60, it is higher than WHO standards. There are marked seasonal differences in the air quality of Thimphu as shown in the figure 12. The air quality worsens during winters and improves during summer and reached the lowest during . It follows a U curve shape over twelve months. This variation has no relation to transport and is due to use firewood for heating during winters.

Since air quality monitoring is only done at one place in Thimphu (little beyond peak traffic area), the index does not reflect differences in the air quality over different locations. It can be 28 expected that on the major road network PM10 concertation would be much higher than shown. For the high per vehicle fuel consumption, the air quality in Thimphu is much better than it should have been. It is due to higher green belts around Thimphu which serves to reduce the air pollution. Figure 14: Annual Average level of Air Quality Index in Thimphu

Source: NEC 2017, RGoB

Figure 15: Monthly Average level of Air Quality Index in Thimphu

Source: NEC 2017, RGoB

3.10 Indicator 10: Green House Gas Emission from Transport

This indicator aims to capture the transport related emission and helps to monitor all the Transport related CO2 emission. It provides an evaluation framework for alternative strategies of public transport systems. Environment outcome of Shift, Avoid and Improve strategies can be evaluated using this indicator. 29

Methodological framework to construct this indicator is fairly robust. It is calculated using the data of petrol and diesel sales in the city. Since disaggregated figures of petrol and diesel sales in Thimphu are not available, following method was used to compute it- a) The data for petrol and diesel sales in Thimphu for the year 2014 was extracted form a study undertaken by the National Assembly of Bhutan (National Assembly of Bhutan, 2014). b) The share of Thimphu in national sales was computed and the share was applied on the national sales figures for the year 2018.

Following simplifying assumptions were made to compute this indicator- • All the petrol and diesel sold in Thimphu is used only for intra-city transportation • Share of Thimphu in national level sales of petrol and diesel remained unchanged. It is fair to make this assumption as the ratio of total vehicles in Thimphu to the number of vehicles in Bhutan has almost remained unchanged between 2014 and 2017.

In 2018, 11.9 million litres of petrol and 13.7 million litres of diesel was sold in Thimphu. This implies that about 63,635 tonnes of CO2 were emitted by city transportation. In per capita terms, it is 0.56 ton of CO2 per person per year. Thimphu scored highest on this indicator- 79.8. If the vehicle growth and population growth follow a linear pattern, in 2030 total CO2 emission will be 183,000 tonnes and per capita annual CO2 emission will almost double to reach a level of 1.1 ton.

It is a worrying trend and the government needs to scale up its efforts to promote shift and improve strategy.

4. Conclusions 1. Bhutan’s SUTI score is 54.46. The score conveys that Thimphu public transport needs to evolve to be sustainable. There is need to bring about a much-desired shift from private motorized transport towards mass public transport system and active modes of transportation. Since the road expansion and its widening may not be possible due to terrain related challenges, the desired modal shift will only work to address the imminent threat of traffic paralysis. 2. Growth rate of vehicles has outpaced the growth rate of infrastructure. If this trend continues unchecked, the Thimphu city will soon reach it carrying capacity. 30

3. Convenience and access to public transport (city bus) is a major challenge. Development of dedicated bus stops, bus bays, effective dissemination of information about the timing of bus services and its reliability will help to make city bus services more popular. 4. High rate of rural urban migration is likely to exacerbate the problem. 5. Policy intervention has limited success so far 6. Private participation in public transport is miniscule consequently the investment burden falls heavily on the public sector. Some of the major projects like BRT are delayed due to funding constraints. There is a need to promote PPP model to overcome these challenges.

References Bureau of Labour Statistics USA. (2019, 10 5). US Department of Transportation. Retrieved from Bureau of Transportation Statistics: https://www.bts.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/docs/browse-statistical-products-and- data/transportation-economic-trends/224726/tet-2018-chapter-6.pdf

JICA. (2014). Data Collection Survey on Urban Development and Environment in the Kingdom of Bhutan. Thimphu.

National Assembly of Bhutan. (2014). A Policy Review on Import of Secondhand Electric Vehicles. National Assembly of Bhutan.

RGoB. (1981). Fifth Five Year Plan. Thimphu: Planning Commission.

RGoB. (2017). Bhutan Living Standard Survey 2017. Thimphu: National Statistical Bureau.

RGoB. (2017). Population and Housing Census of Bhutan 2017. Thimphu: National Statistical Bureau of Bhutan.

RGoB. (2018). Second Draft National Transport Policy of Bhutan 2017. Thimphu: GNHC.

RGoB. (2018). Twelfth Five Year Plan (2018-2013). Thimphu: GNHC.

RGoB. (2019). Annual Info-Comm and Transport Statistics Bulletin , 10th edition. Thimphu: PPD, Ministry of Information and Communication.

World Bank. (2018). Human Development Report . World Bank.

i Concept of primate city was developed by an American cartographer, Mark Jefferson. He defined primate city as the city of high significance due to its size and national influence. If the population of the largest city is two or three times more than the second largest city, it can be defined as primate city. In 2017 the population of Thimphu was 114,551, which was 4.75 times larger than the population of second largest city Phuentsholing (24,152). Besides, Thimphu has high political and economic significance.