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The Marketpulse May 2020 the Marketpulse The MarketPulse May 2020 The MarketPulse Volume 9, Issue 5 May 2020 Data as of Table of Contents March 2020 (unless otherwise stated) Full Impact from Employment Losses not yet Evident in Single-Family Rents . 3 Housing Statistics Interest Rates Fuel Refinance-Driven Market in 2019 . 4 March 2020 Pending Sales Reveal Annual Price Growth Slowed HPI® YOY Chg 4 .5% by 0 .3 Percentage Points in April . 7 HPI YOY Chg XD 4 .2% NegEq Share 3 .5% U .S . Case-Shiller Index Found Annual Price Growth (Q4 2019) Picked up Pace in February . 9 In The News . .. 11 Charts & Graphs . 12 10 Largest CBSA – Loan Performance Insights Report February 2020 . 12 Overview of Loan Performance. 12 Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed. 13 Home Price Index. 14 CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition Overview. .15 March 2020. 15 March 2025. 15 News Media Contact Lucy De Oliveira [email protected] 416-873-2727 (office) 2 Full Impact from Employment Losses not yet Evident in Single-Family Rents U .S . Single-Family Rents Up 3% Year Over Year in March Molly Boesel 1 Boesel fig 1 Principal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist Molly Boesel holds the title principal,. economistSubhead for CoreLogic copy in the goes Office ofhere the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends. Rents for lower-priced homes increased faster than those of higher-priced homes in March compared with a year earlier. Phoenix had the highest increase in rent in March Figure 1. National Single-Family Rent Index from a year earlier. Year-Over-Year Percent Change by Price Tier 8% U.S. single-family rents increased 3% year over year in March 2020, the same rate of increase as March 2019, 6% according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index 4% (SFRI). The index measures rent changes among single- 2% family rental homes, including condominiums, using a 0% repeat-rent analysis to measure1 the Boesel same rental fig 2 properties over time. Single-family. rentsSubhead were on thecopy rise goes-2% here2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 in early 2020 prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, having -4% increased by an average of 3.1% year over year for the -6% first three months of the year. Impacts from state and SFRI Low Tier High Tier local shutdowns on the rental market will be apparent in Source: CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index, March 2020 the coming months. Using the rent index to analyze Figure 2. Single-Family Rent Index Year-Over-Year Percent Change in 20 Markets 8% specific price tiers reveals important 8% differences in rent growth. Figure 1 6% 7% shows that the index’s overall 4% 6% growth in March 2020 was propped 5% 2% up by low-end rentals, defined as 4% 0% properties with rents 75% or less of 3% the median rent of the metro -2% 2% 1 area1 . Rents on low-tier rental -4% 1% 01JAN2005 01JAN2006 01JAN2007 homes increased 3.9% year over 0% -6% year and rents for high-tier homes,©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 defined as properties with rents Miami, FL Dallas, TX Austin, TX Austin, Detroit, MI Chicago, IL Chicago, more than 125% of the metro-area AZ Tucson, Atlanta, GA Atlanta, Seattle, WA Boston, MA Boston, Orlando, FL Orlando, Phoenix, AZ Houston, TX Honolulu, HI St. MO Louis, Charlotte, NC Las Vegas, NV median rent, increased 2.7% year CA San Diego, Los Angeles, CA Angeles, Los Washington, DC Philadelphia, PA over year. Rents for low-tier homes 1-Mar-19 1-Mar-20 Continued on page 11 Source: CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index, March 2020 1 Metro areas used in this report are Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Metropolitan Divisions where available . The SFRI is computed for 75 metros . 3 ©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2 Interest Rates Fuel Refinance-Driven Market in 2019 Refinance loan originations jumped 59% in 2019 Arthur Jobe Senior Professional, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist Arthur Jobe holds the title of senior professional economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist. He is responsible for analyzing mortgage and real estate trends. He began his tenure at CoreLogic with the Advisory Services team, working directly with clients and utilizing various CoreLogic data assets to design and deliver customized solutions. He also supported the CoreLogic Lien & Equity Analytics Radar (CLEAR) product as a developer. CoreLogic TrueStandings servicing data shows the refinance volume, which is particularly sensitive to average interest rate for a home loan slid from 4.96% in interest rate levels, was impacted most. December 2018 to 3.75% in December 2019.1 Effects of falling interest rates include more homeowners CoreLogic public record data shows the total yearly count refinancing an existing home loan, purchasing a new of refinance, purchase and home equity loans increased home or taking out additional debt with a second lien. by 18% in 2019 to roughly 9.51 million, up from 8.06 million in 2018.4 Refinance loan volume grew by 59%, In the first quarter of 2019, mortgage rates were at an while purchase originations remained relatively flat eight-year high when they began to fall.2 The continued with only 4% growth. downward trend led to a quarterly year-over-year drop in first-lien2 mortgage jobe originations, fig 1 from 1.43 million Refinance Insights loans to 1.28. million.Subhead3 However, copy by the goes middle hereof the According to public records data, first-lien refinance second quarter, homeowners were borrowing at 4.24%, volume grew from roughly 2.36 million loans in 2018 to marking the lowest rate since February 2018, resulting 3.74 million loans in 2019. CoreLogic TrueStandings data in an uptick in originations. Mortgage rates continued to decline throughout the remainder of 2019, and Continued on page 5 Figure 1. Home Loan Origination Counts5 (in thousands) 2018 Home Loans 2019 Home Loans 1.72 1.81 2.36 3.74 4.04 3.90 Home Equity Purchase Refi Home Equity Purchase Refi Source: CoreLogic 4 ©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 2 jobe fig 2 . Subhead copy goes here Interest Rates continued from page 4 Figure 2. Rate-or Term Share of Refis Increase with Decreasing Rates Share of Refi Orig Interest Rate 100% 5.0 80% 4.5 60% 4.0 40% 3.5 20% 3.0 0% 2.5 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Cash-Out Rate and Term Int Rate (Wgt Avg) Source: CoreLogic shows the growth in rate-and-term refinances far typical mortgage payment fell by 6.8% because of a 20% exceeded cash outs starting in the second quarter of decline in mortgage rates. 2019. The cash-out share of refinances peaked during the end of 2018 at 68% but fell to just 39% by the end of Second Lien Originations 2019. The decline in cash-out share was due to a surge Public record data shows home equity loan originations in rate-and-term refinance originations, which was the decreased year over year by 5% in 2019 to 1.72 million. result of decreasing interest rates. Over time, we see the Although still down from 2018, favorable interest rates cash-out refinance share of total refinances generally attracted more homeowners, and originations increased follows changes in home-loan interest rates [Figure 2]. by 27% from the first to the second quarter of 2019. ©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. However, slower home appreciation and high demand 2 Purchase Mortgages for refinances limited the year-over-year growth for CoreLogic public record data shows a 4% year-over-year second liens. increase in first lien purchase mortgages, from 3.9 million loans in 2018 to 4.04 million in 2019. Compared to As more homeowners refinanced to take advantage of refinances, this growth was modest because mortgage decreasing interest rates, the share of home equity and rates are often not the sole reason behind home other junior standalone mortgages declined throughout purchase decisions. However, reduced mortgage rates 2019 after the first quarter (seeFigure 3). can have a positive impact on origination activity by Looking forward improving affordability. The CoreLogic Typical Mortgage Payment Analysis demonstrates how changes in interest When refinanced mortgages drive origination growth, rates can have a greater impact on affordability than that we expect it to slow as rates level out. For instance, of changes in home prices. The Typical Mortgage refinance volume abruptly declined 15% month over Payment blog for December 20196 shows how, despite a month in November 2019 and another 2% in December 4% year-over-year increase in the median sale price, the Continued on page 6 5 2 jobe fig 3 . Subhead copy goes here Interest Rates continued from page 5 Figure 3. Home Equity Loan Originations Decreased While Refinance Surged in 2019 Originations (Ths) Interest Rate 500 5.30 450 5.05 400 4.80 350 4.55 300 4.30 250 4.05 200 3.80 150 3.55 100 3.30 50 3.05 0 2.80 Jul-19 Jul-18 Jan-19 Oct-19 Oct-18 Apr-19 Refinance Home Equity Interest Rate Source: CoreLogic despite steady historic low home loan rates7. However, a 1 Average interest rate calculated from total purchase and refinance 8 loan originations found in CoreLogic TrueStandings servicing data, decrease in home loan rates in January 2020 sparked a weighted by dollar amount .
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