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Monetary Policy in Economies with Little Or No Money
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MONETARY POLICY IN ECONOMIES WITH LITTLE OR NO MONEY Bennett T. McCallum Working Paper 9838 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9838 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2003 This paper was prepared for presentation at the December 16-17, 2002, meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association. I am indebted to Marvin Goodfriend, Lok Sang Ho, Allan Meltzer, and Edward Nelson for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research ©2003 by Bennett T. McCallum. All rights reserved. Short sections of text not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including © notice, is given to the source. Monetary Policy in Economies with Little or No Money Bennett T. McCallum NBER Working Paper No. 9838 July 2003 JEL No. E3, E4, E5 ABSTRACT The paper's arguments include: (1) Medium-of-exchange money will not disappear in the foreseeable future, although the quantity of base money may continue to decline. (2) In economies with very little money (e.g., no currency but bank settlement balances at the central bank), monetary policy will be conducted much as at present by activist adjustment of overnight interest rates. Operating procedures will be different, however, with payment of interest on reserves likely to become the norm. (3) In economies without any money there can be no monetary policy. The relevant notion of a general price level concerns some index of prices in terms of a medium of account. -
A Study of Paul A. Samuelson's Economics
Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. A Study of Paul A. Samuelson's Econol11ics: Making Economics Accessible to Students A thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics at Massey University Palmerston North, New Zealand. Leanne Marie Smith July 2000 Abstract Paul A. Samuelson is the founder of the modem introductory economics textbook. His textbook Economics has become a classic, and the yardstick of introductory economics textbooks. What is said to distinguish economics from the other social sciences is the development of a textbook tradition. The textbook presents the fundamental paradigms of the discipline, these gradually evolve over time as puzzles emerge, and solutions are found or suggested. The textbook is central to the dissemination of the principles of a discipline. Economics has, and does contribute to the education of students, and advances economic literacy and understanding in society. It provided a common economic language for students. Systematic analysis and research into introductory textbooks is relatively recent. The contribution that textbooks play in portraying a discipline and its evolution has been undervalued and under-researched. Specifically, applying bibliographical and textual analysis to textbook writing in economics, examining a single introductory economics textbook and its successive editions through time is new. When it is considered that an economics textbook is more than a disseminator of information, but a physical object with specific content, presented in a particular way, it changes the way a researcher looks at that textbook. -
The Role of Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam
The role of monetary policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam By: Van Hoang Khieu William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 1075 February 2014 The role of monetary policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam Khieu, Van Hoang Graduate Student at The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Japan. Lecturer in Monetary Economics at Banking Academy of Vietnam. Email: [email protected] Cell phone number: +81-8094490288 Abstract This paper reproduces a version of the New Keynesian model developed by Ireland (2004) and then uses the Vietnamese data from January 1995 to December 2012 to estimate the model’s parameters. The empirical results show that before August 2000 when the Taylor rule was adopted more firmly, the monetary policy shock made considerable contributions to the fluctuations in key macroeconomic variables such as the short-term nominal interest rate, the output gap, inflation, and especially output growth. By contrast, the loose adoption of the Taylor rule in the period of post- August 2000 leads to a fact that the contributions of the monetary policy shock to the variations in such key macroeconomic variables become less substantial. Thus, one policy implication is that adopting firmly the Taylor rule could strengthen the role of the monetary policy in driving movements in the key macroeconomic variables, for instance, enhancing economic growth and stabilizing inflation. Key words: New Keynesian model, Monetary Policy, Technology Shock, Cost-Push Shock, Preference Shock. JEL classification: E12, E32. 1 1. Introduction Explaining dynamic behaviors of key macroeconomic variables has drawn a lot of interest from researchers. -
Econometrics As a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: on Lawrence R
Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón-Fuchs To cite this version: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics. 2016. halshs-01364809 HAL Id: halshs-01364809 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01364809 Preprint submitted on 12 Sep 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich PINZÓN FUCHS 2014.80 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 boulevard de L'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13 http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/ ISSN : 1955-611X Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón Fuchs† October 2014 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein’s influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. -
On Some Recent Developments in Monetary Economics
ON SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY ECONOMICS P. D. Jonson R. w. Rankin* Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 8605 (Revised) August 1986 (Forthcoming, Economic Record September 1986) * This paper is dedicated to the memory of Austin Holmes, OBE, who both commissioned it and provided helpful comments on drafts. It has also benefitted from the comments of many other colleagues, including in particular Palle Andersen, Charles Goodhart, David Laidler and William Poole, as well as participants in seminars at ANU, Melbourne and Monash Universities. The views expressed herein are nevertheless those of the authors. In particular, they are not necessarily shared by their employer. ABSTRACT This survey is motivated by the major changes that have been occurring both within the financial sector and in the relationships between financial and other markets. These changes have complicated both monetary analysis and the practice of monetary policy. Monetary models based on simple aggregative relationships are not well equipped to analyse issues of structural change. Monetary policy has been forced to rely more on "judgement" and less on the application of these models and their suggested policy rules. one obvious example of this is the demise, or at least downgrading, of monetary targets in major western economies. This survey examines some of the main strands in the development of monetary economics in the past two decades. It argues that much of the policy prescription of monetary economics - especially reliance on monetary targeting - depends on simple "stylised facts" about the behaviour of regulated economies. These prescriptions cannot therefore be applied directly to economies where the regulatory structure is changing. -
Patinkin, the Cowles Commission, and the Theory of Unemployment and Aggregate Supply
Patinkin, the Cowles Commission, and the Theory of Unemployment and Aggregate Supply Mauro Boianovsky Universidade de Brasilia “For a long period before the writing of the first edition [of Money, Interest and Prices] I had been puzzled by the apparent contradiction between the intuitive feeling, on one hand, that there was a connection between a firm’s product-output and its labor-input, and the traditional demand curve for labor, on the other hand, that did not depend explicitly on output and whose sole independent variable was the real wage rate.” (Patinkin, 1989, p. xvi) 1. Introduction This paper offers an account of Don Patinkin’s long time quest for an explanation of the connection between a firm’s demand function for labour and its output. The task faced by Patinkin was how to make sense of an aggregate demand constraint and unemployment phenomena under the assumption that each firm is perfectly competitive (that is, it has a perfectly elastic demand for its output) and, therefore, can sell all it wants to sell at the current market price. The solution he eventually put forward in chapter XIII of his 1956 classic Money, Interest and Prices (henceforth MIP) was based on the notion that the influence of the representative firm’s output on its labour input is reflected in the form of the labour demand function, which features a kink at the employment level corresponding to aggregate demand. The view that unemployment is explained by the involuntary departure of firms from their commodity supply and labour demand curves became the hallmark of Patinkin’s contribution to the development of disequilibrium macroeconomics. -
Mit and Money
Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion UMR CNRS 7321 MIT AND MONEY Documents de travail GREDEG GREDEG Working Papers Series Perry Mehrling GREDEG WP No. 2013-44 http://www.gredeg.cnrs.fr/working-papers.html Les opinions exprimées dans la série des Documents de travail GREDEG sont celles des auteurs et ne reflèlent pas nécessairement celles de l’institution. Les documents n’ont pas été soumis à un rapport formel et sont donc inclus dans cette série pour obtenir des commentaires et encourager la discussion. Les droits sur les documents appartiennent aux auteurs. The views expressed in the GREDEG Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the institution. The Working Papers have not undergone formal review and approval. Such papers are included in this series to elicit feedback and to encourage debate. Copyright belongs to the author(s). MIT and Money Perry Mehrling October 22, 2013 I would like to thank all the participants in the HOPE conference for helpful suggestions and stimulating discussion, and in addition Bob Solow, Roger Backhouse, Goncalo Fonseca, Duncan Foley and Roy Weintraub for thoughtful and searching comment on early drafts. 1 Abstract: The Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 and the subsequent rebuilding of private capital markets, first domestically and then globally, provided the shifting institutional background against which thinking about money and monetary policy evolved within the MIT economics department. Throughout that evolution, a constant, and a constraint, was the conception of monetary economics that Paul Samuelson had himself developed as early as 1937, a conception that informed the decision to bring in Modigliani in 1962, as well as Foley and Sidrauski in 1965. -
Optimal Monetary Policy in an Economy with Inflation Persistence
ARTICLE IN PRESS Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (2003) 1425–1456 Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence$ Jon! Steinsson Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Received 1 April 2001; received in revised form 6 May 2003 Abstract This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model where inflation is persistent. Two types of price setters are assumed to exist. One acts rationally given Calvo-type constraints on price setting. The other type sets prices according to a rule-of-thumb. This results in a Phillips curve with both a forward-looking term and a backward-looking term. The Phillips curve nests a standard purely forward-looking Phillips curve as well as a standard purely backward-looking Phillips curve as special cases. A cost push supply shock is derived from microfoundations by adding a time varying income tax and by making the elasticity of substitution between goods stochastic. A central bank loss function for this model is derived from a second-order Taylor approximation of the household’s welfare function. Optimal monetary policy for different relative values of the forward- and backward-looking terms is then analyzed for both the commitment case and the case of discretion. r 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E31; E32; E52; E58 Keywords: Optimal monetary policy; Phillips curve; Inflation persistence; Cost push shock $I thank Michael Woodford for priceless advice and encouragement. I thank Gauti B. Eggertsson, Marc Giannoni, Emi Nakamura, Thorarinn! G. Petursson! and anonymous referees for valuable discussions and comments. Special thanks to Lonn Waters for moral support. -
Don Patinkin's Ph.D. Dissertation As the Prehistory of Disequilibrium
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Archive Ouverte a LUniversite Lyon 2 Don Patinkin's Ph.D. dissertation as the prehistory of disequilibrium theories Goulven Rubin To cite this version: Goulven Rubin. Don Patinkin's Ph.D. dissertation as the prehistory of disequilibrium theories. 2010. <halshs-00636821> HAL Id: halshs-00636821 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00636821 Submitted on 28 Oct 2011 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destin´eeau d´ep^otet `ala diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publi´esou non, lished or not. The documents may come from ´emanant des ´etablissements d'enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche fran¸caisou ´etrangers,des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou priv´es. Don Patinkin’s Ph.D. dissertation as the prehistory of disequilibrium theories Goulven Rubin ♦♦♦ Revised for HOPE, july 2010. This work is the outgrowth of ideas first presented in a doctoral dissertation submitted to the University of Chicago in 1947 and then further developed in a series of articles published in various journals and anthologies through the years 1948 to 1954. (1956: vii) The opening sentence of Money, Interest, and Prices , has attracted the attention of most scholars who wrote about Don Patinkin’s works in recent years. As shown by Boianovsky (2006), Merhling (2002) or Rubin (2002a), reading Patinkin’s doctoral dissertation shed new light on his major work. -
Paul Samuelson's Ways to Macroeconomic Dynamics
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Boianovsky, Mauro Working Paper Paul Samuelson's ways to macroeconomic dynamics CHOPE Working Paper, No. 2019-08 Provided in Cooperation with: Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University Suggested Citation: Boianovsky, Mauro (2019) : Paul Samuelson's ways to macroeconomic dynamics, CHOPE Working Paper, No. 2019-08, Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE), Durham, NC This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/196831 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Paul Samuelson’s Ways to Macroeconomic Dynamics by Mauro Boianovsky CHOPE Working Paper No. 2019-08 May 2019 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3386201 1 Paul Samuelson’s ways to macroeconomic dynamics Mauro Boianovsky (Universidade de Brasilia) [email protected] First preliminary draft. -
The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice Volume Author/Editor: John F. O. Bilson and Richard C. Marston, eds. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-05096-3 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/bils84-1 Publication Date: 1984 Chapter Title: The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect Chapter Author: Paul R. Krugman Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6838 Chapter pages in book: (p. 261 - 278) 8 The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect Paul Krugman 8.1 Introduction What do people use as money? In studying national economies we usually do not worry about this question very much, assuming that governments are able to create fiat monies and enforce their acceptance. There are some prob- lems, such as the role of inside monies and near monies, and the cases of “dollarization” (as in Israel) where the national currency is partly sup- planted by some other currency. But these problems are the exception rather than the rule, and theorists are generally comfortable with the idea of assum- ing a demand for M/P without having to explain why it is these pieces of paper, rather than something else, which appear in the numerator. When we study the international economy, however, we can no longer avoid the question. International economic activity, like domestic activity, requires the use of money, and the same forces which lead to convergence on a single domestic money lead the world to converge on a limited number of international monies. -
Irving Fisher and His Compensated Dollar Plan
Irving Fisher and His Compensated Dollar Plan Don Patinkin his is a story that illustrates the interrelationship between economic his- tory and economic thought: more precisely, between monetary history T and monetary thought. So let me begin with a very brief discussion of the relevant history. In 1879, the United States returned to the gold standard from which it had departed at the time of the Civil War. This took place in a period in which “a combination of events, including a slowing of the rate of increase of the world’s stock of gold, the adoption of the gold standard by a widening circle of countries, and a rapid increase in aggregate economic output, produced a secular decline ˙.. in the world price level measured in gold˙...” (Friedman and Schwartz 1963, p. 91; for further details, see Friedman 1990, and Laidler 1991, pp. 49–50). The specific situation thus generated in the United States was de- scribed by Irving Fisher (1913c, p. 27) in the following words: “For a quarter of a century—from 1873 to 1896—the dollar increased in purchasing power and caused a prolonged depression of trade, culminating in the political upheaval which led to the free silver campaign of 1896, when the remedy proposed was worse than the disease.” This was, of course, the campaign which climaxed with William J. Bryan’s famous “cross of gold” speech in the presidential election of 1896. Fisher’s view of this campaign reflected the fact that it called for the unlimited coinage of silver at a mint price far higher than its market value, a policy that would have led to a tremendous increase in the quantity of money and the consequent generation of strong inflationary pressures.