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World Development Report 1984

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World Development Report 1984 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized World DevelopmentReport1984 World DevelopmentIndicators Population DataSupplement Population ChangeandDevelopment Recovery orRelapseintheWorldEconomy? World Development Report 1984 Published for The World Bank Oxford University Press Oxford University Press NEW YORK OXFORD LONDON GLASGOW TORONTO MELBOURNE WELLINGTON HONG KONG TOKYO KUALA LUMPUR SINGAPORE JAKARTA DELHI BOMBAY CALCUTTA MADRAS KARACHI NAIROBI DAR ES SALAAM CAPE TOWN © 1984 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank l8l8HStreet, N.W, Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. First printing July 1984 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may he reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Manufactured in the United States of America. The denominations, the classifications, the boundaries, and the colors used in maps in World Development Report do not imply on the part of The World Bank and its affiliates any judgment on the legal or other status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of any boundary. ISBN 0-19-520459-X cloth ISBN 0-19-520460-3 paperback ISSN 0163-5085 The Jibrary of Congress has cataloged this serial publication as follows: World development report. 1978- tNew York] Oxford University Press. v. 27cm. annual. Published for The World Bank 1.Underdeveloped areasPeriodicals.2. Economic development Periodicals I.International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. HC59. 7. W659 330. 9'l 72 '4 78-67086 Foreword This Report is the seventh in this annual series that governments and their peoples have a wide assessing development issues. This year the focus range of views on this subject. is on population change and its links with develop- Even with success in efforts to slow population ment. Population growth does not provide the growth, future population growth will still be drama of financial crisis or political upheaval, but heavily concentrated in what are now the poorer as this Report shows, its significance for shaping areas of the globe. Thus the average level of the world of our children and grandchildren is at human welfare will depend largely on the degree least as great. What governments and their peo- of economic and social transformation in those ples do today to influence our demographic future areas. The poverty of those areas cannot be blamed will set the terms for development strategy well on rapid population growth alone; the causes of into the next century. Failure to act now to slow poverty go well beyond population change. Nor growth is likely to mean a lower quality of life for will reducing population growth alone ensure their millions of people. In the poorest countries of the economic transformation. But this Report shows world, and among the poorest groups within that slowing the pace of population growth can countries, poverty contributes to high mortality make a differenceand that the ingredients for and even higher fertility.It thereby creates a doing so are also those that will increase economic vicious circle: the slow pace at which development growth. reaches the poor contributes to rapid population The analysis of the population situation follows growth, making the elimination of poverty increas- our annual review of global economic develop- ingly difficult. Slowing population growth is a dif- ments, which as in previous years occupies the ficult challenge to humanitybut a challenge that first part of the World Development Report. It might must and can be successfully addressed. be argued that the general public remains insuff i- On the one hand, the situation is grave: this ciently aware of the growing links among nations Report concludes that in some countries develop- over the past few decades, and of the extent today ment may not be possible at all unless slower pop- of international economic interdependence. In an ulation growth can be achieved soon, before increasingly interdependent world, low growth, higher real incomes would bring fertility down fiscal and labor market problems, and resulting spontaneously. On the other hand, there is reason inflation in industrial countries have taken a heavy for hope: the experience of the past decade shows toll in developing countries. Exports have suf- that education, health, and other development fered, fear of protectionism has increased, and measures that raise parents' hopes for their chil- high real interest rates have made debt servicing a dren, along with widespread access to family plan- costly burden. If the industrial countries fail to ning services, create a powerful combination in regain the growth rates they managed in the 1950s reducing fertility. and 1960s, many countries in the developing The discussion of population places special world will have great difficulty making progress in emphasis on the role of public policy in an area the years ahead. Indeed, the prospects for much of where fundamental human values are at stake. sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly grave. Population is a subject that touches issues central But it is also apparent that even in a harsh inter- to the human condition, including personal free- national climate, the developing nations can take dom and the very definition of economic and social actions to improve their own economic perfor- progress. This Report tries to do it full justice, in a mance. Developing countries share the problems sensitive and thought-provoking way, recognizing of the developed, from fiscal deficits to distorted III labor markets. And they have a vested interest in As its predecessors, this year's World Develop- reducing their own trade protectionism and adopt- ment Report is a study by the staff of The World ing outward-oriented policies. Bank, and the judgments in it do not necessarily Although recovery, at least in the industrial reflect the view of our Board of Directors or the nations, is now on a firmer footing, the outlook for governments they represent. the years ahead is full of uncertainties. The outlook would brighten considerably if every nation took steps to improve its own domestic economic per- formance. But development assistance is also criti- cal, in reviving the global economy and in address- ing many of the fundamental development issues of our era, including population. Especially for the poorest countries, a substantial increase in conces- A. W Clausen sional flows of funds is needed to secure develop- President ment momentum. And although the direct costs of The World Bank programs to reduce population growth are not large, a greater commitment by the international community is sorely needed to assist developing countries in the great challenge of slowing popula- tion growth. May 25, 1984 This Report was prepared by a team led by Nancy Birdsall and comprising Martha Ainsworth, Rodolfo Bulatao, Dennis Mahar, William McGreevey, Nicholas Prescott, and Gurushri Swamy, and assisted by Jill Armstrong. Deepak Lal and Martin Wolf contributed to Part I. The Economic Analysis and Projections Department, under the direction of Jean Baneth, prepared the statistical materials on which Part I is based, as well as supplied data for the whole Report. Peter Miovic coordinated the work of the Economic Analysis and Projections Department on Part I. Ramesh Chander supervised the preparation of the World Development Indicators, assisted by David Cieslikowski. Staff of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Department provided extensive help on Part H. The authors would like to thank these and the many other contributors and reviewers. Thanks also go to the production staffChristine Houle, Pensri Kimpitak, Jeanne Rosen, and Gerald Martin Quinn (who also designed the cover)and especially to the support staff headed by Rhoda Blade-Charest and including Ban- jonglak Duangrat, Jaunianne Fawkes, and Carlina Jones. The work was carried out under the general direction of Anne 0. Krueger and Costas Michalopoulos, with Rupert Pennant-Rea as principal editor. iv Contents Definitions and data notes ix Glossary x Demographic terms x Acronyms and initials xi IIntroduction The economic outlook I Population and demographic change 2 Part IRecovery or Relapse in the World Economy? 2 Recession in retrospect 11 Industrial countries in the past two decades 12 Developing countries after 1973 23 3 Prospects for sustained growth 34 A ten-year perspective 34 The Low case and developing countries 35 The High case and developing countries 37 Policy requirements of the High case 39 Capital flows and debt 42 Poverty and low-income countries 47 International action 48 The links with population 50 Part IIPopulation Change and Development 4 Demographic change and public policy 51 The setting for high fertility 51 The need for public policy 54 Lessons from history 56 Current demographic change in developing countries 63 Demographic prospects and goals 73 5 The consequences of rapid population growth 79 Differences among countries 81 Macroeconomic effects of rapid population growth 81 Constraints on agricultural production 90 Population and the environment 94 Urban population growth and internal migration 96 Population growth and the international economy 100 Conclusions 105 6 Slowing population growth 106 Socioeconomic factors and fertility 108 Marriage, breastfeeding, and contraception 112 Incentives and disincentives
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