https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-310 Preprint. Discussion started: 28 September 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: A meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations Olivier Caumont1, Marc Mandement1, François Bouttier1, Judith Eeckman1,2, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier1, Alexane Lovat1,3, Olivier Nuissier1, and Olivier Laurantin3 1CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France 2IMFT, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse, France 3Observing Systems Division, Météo-France, Toulouse, France Correspondence: Olivier Caumont (
[email protected]) Abstract. The case of the heavy precipitation event on 14 and 15 October 2018 which has led to severe flash flooding in the Aude watershed in south-western France is studied from a meteorological point of view using deterministic and probabilistic numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. This case is typical of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events due to its classic synoptic situation and its 5 quasi-stationary convective precipitation that regenerates continuously, but with some peculiarities such as the presence of a former hurricane and a pre-existing cold air mass close to the ground. It is shown that the positive Mediterranean sea surface temperature anomaly may have played an aggravating role in the amount of precipitation that poured into the Aude basin. On the other hand, soil moisture does not seem to have played a significant role. A study of rainfall forecasts shows that the event had limited predictability, in particular given the small size 10 of the watersheds involved.