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Wgsam Report 2013 ICES WGSAM REPORT 2013 SCICOM STEERING GROUP ON SUSTAINABLE USE OF ECOSYSTEMS ICES CM 2013/SSGSUE:10 REF. SCICOM & ACOM Interim Report of the Working Group on Mul- tispecies Assessment Methods (WGSAM) 21-25 October 2013 Stockholm, Sweden International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer H. C. Andersens Boulevard 44–46 DK-1553 Copenhagen V Denmark Telephone (+45) 33 38 67 00 Telefax (+45) 33 93 42 15 www.ices.dk [email protected] Recommended format for purposes of citation: ICES. 2013. Interim Report of the Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Meth- ods (WGSAM), 21-25 October 2013, Stockholm, Sweden. ICES CM 2013/SSGSUE:10. 99 pp. For permission to reproduce material from this publication, please apply to the Gen- eral Secretary. The document is a report of an Expert Group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council. © 2013 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea ICES WGSAM REPORT 2013 | i Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 1 1 Opening of the meeting ................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................. 3 1.2 Terms of reference ................................................................................................ 3 2 ToR A: Review further progress in multispecies and ecosystem modelling throughout the ICES region ..................................................................... 4 2.1 Ecoregion A: Greenland and Iceland Seas ........................................................ 4 2.2 Ecoregion B: Barents Sea ...................................................................................... 4 Ongoing work ...................................................................................................... 4 Model comparison .............................................................................................. 4 Spatial overlap ..................................................................................................... 4 STOCOBAR/CODCAB ....................................................................................... 4 2.3 Ecoregion C: Faroes .............................................................................................. 5 2.4 Ecoregion D: Norwegian Sea .............................................................................. 5 2.5 Ecoregion E: Celtic Seas ....................................................................................... 5 2.5.1 Ecopath in the Celtic Sea ......................................................................... 5 2.5.2 Population-Dynamical Matching Model (PDMM) in the Celtic Sea ................................................................................................... 5 2.5.3 Irish Sea ..................................................................................................... 6 2.6 Ecoregion F: North Sea......................................................................................... 6 2.6.1 North Sea SMS .......................................................................................... 6 2.6.2 Ecopath with Ecosim in the North Sea ................................................. 7 2.6.3 tGAM the North Sea (with ref to Baltic and Black Sea also) ............ 11 2.6.4 Ecopath with Ecosim for the southern part of the North Sea .......... 12 2.6.5 Ecopath with Ecosim in the Eastern Channel .................................... 12 2.6.6 Linking SMS to the output of the NPZD model EOCHAM- 4 and species distribution models ....................................................... 12 2.6.7 ATLANTIS model .................................................................................. 13 2.6.8 LeMANS in the North Sea .................................................................... 13 2.7 Ecoregion G: South European Atlantic Shelf .................................................. 14 2.7.1 Coupled ROMS-N2P2Z2D2+OSMOSE model in the Bay of Biscay ....................................................................................................... 14 2.7.2 Ecopath with Ecosim model for the French coast ............................. 14 2.7.3 Gadget Modelling .................................................................................. 15 2.7.4 Foodweb Network model for the Portuguese waters ....................... 15 2.8 Ecoregion H: Western Mediterranean Sea ...................................................... 15 2.8.1 Ecopath with Ecosim in the Mediterranean ....................................... 15 2.9 Ecoregion I: Adriatic-Ionian Seas ..................................................................... 16 2.10 Ecoregion J: Aegean-Levantine ......................................................................... 16 2.11 Ecoregion K: Oceanic Northeast Atlantic ........................................................ 16 ii | ICES WGSAM REPORT 2013 2.12 Ecoregion L: Baltic Sea ....................................................................................... 16 2.12.1 Baltic Sea multispecies benchmark ...................................................... 16 2.12.2 Ecopath and Ecosim modelling for the Baltic .................................... 17 2.12.3 Multispecies Integrated Stochastic Operative Model, MSI- SOM in the Baltic Sea ............................................................................ 19 2.13 Ecoregion M: Black Sea ...................................................................................... 21 2.14 Ecoregion: Canadian Northwest Atlantic ....................................................... 21 2.15 Ecoregion: US Northwest Atlantic ................................................................... 21 2.15.1 Pilot Project: 10 Species Georges Bank Multispecies Assessment ............................................................................................. 21 2.15.2 Hydra (Multispecies Length Based Operating Model) ..................... 22 2.15.3 Kraken (Multispecies/Aggregate Surplus Modelling Package) .................................................................................................. 22 2.16 References ............................................................................................................ 23 3 ToR B: Report on the development of key-runs (standardized model runs updated with recent data, and agreed upon by WGSAM participants) of multispecies and eco-system models for different ICES regions (including the Baltic Sea, and others as appropriate) ................... 27 3.1 Baltic Sea EwE ..................................................................................................... 27 4 ToR C: Where possible, develop standards for ‘Key Runs’ of other modelling approaches (e.g. Size spectra, TGAMs) ToR C. Where possible, develop standards for ‘Key Runs’ of other modelling approaches (e.g. Size spectra, TGAMs) ................................................................... 28 4.1 Key runs ............................................................................................................... 28 4.2 Summary of key run procedure for SMS models ........................................... 28 4.3 Developing a LeMans Key Run ........................................................................ 30 5 ToR D: Develop and compare foodweb and ecosystem indicators (e.g. from the MSFD) and advice produced by multispecies key runs (preferably together with WGFE and WGECO) .................................................... 32 6 ToR E: Report on progress on including new stomach samples in the ICES area in multispecies models ............................................................................ 49 6.1 Stomach tender project ...................................................................................... 49 6.2 Methods for analysing stomachs and uploading stomach data to the ICES stomach database ................................................................................ 49 6.3 Update of DAPSTOM database ........................................................................ 49 6.4 Update of Celtic Sea Blue Whiting GADGET submodel ............................... 50 6.5 Historical diets, foodweb dynamics and climate change in the Barents Sea ........................................................................................................... 51 6.6 References ............................................................................................................ 52 7 ToR F: Explore the consequence of multispecies interactions and environmental factors in practical multispecies advice for fisheries management (MSY related and other biological reference points ..................... 53 ICES WGSAM REPORT 2013 | iii 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 53 7.2 Current state-of-the-art of multi species advice in ICES for MSY ................ 53 7.3 Current state-of-the-art of multi species advice in ICES for quota setting ................................................................................................................... 55 7.4 Optimizing fishing effort to achieve FMSY while simultaneously considering possible climate effects in the North Sea...................................
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