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Public Investment Bank PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK PublicInvest Research Results Review Monday, November 30, 2020 KDN PP17686/03/2013(032117) AXIATA GROUP Neutral DESCRIPTION Strong QoQ Recovery One of the regional leading telco players with operations Axiata Group (Axiata) reported RM353m of headline net profit for 3QFY20, spanning across nine countries. jumping 97% YoY. Stripping out non-operating items, core net profit for the quarter stood at RM 374.2m, rising 47% YoY mainly due to higher contribution 12-Month Target Price RM3.70 from Malaysia and Sri Lanka as well as lower losses posted by Others Current Price RM3.73 Expected Return -1.0% segment. On a QoQ basis, normalised profit surged by almost seven-fold from RM47.4m in 2QFY20 due to the easing of lockdown measures imposed Market Main following the Covid-19 outbreak. For cumulative 9MFY20, results beat our and Sector Telecommunications consensus estimates, accounting for 95% and 85% of full-year forecasts Bursa Code 6888 Bloomberg Ticker AXIATA MK respectively. The shortfall in our forecast was largely due to lower contribution Shariah-compliant Yes from Malaysia. We raise our FY20F earnings by 20% while keeping FY21-22F unchanged. Although we do not expect an immediate recovery to pre-Covid- SHARE PRICE CHART 19 levels, FY21F should deliver stronger earnings against the backdrop of a 4.00 rebound in economic activities. We maintain our Neutral rating on Axiata. Our SOTP-based TP, which is based on FY21F, remains unchanged at RM3.70. 3.80 § 3QFY20 revenue rose 5.5% QoQ as all operating units posted stronger 3.60 contribution following the easing of lockdown measures imposed in 3.40 2QFY20. Malaysia delivered a 9% jump in revenue as prepaid customer 3.20 base rose 7% on a higher ARPU of RM32 (2QFY20: RM30). Bad debt and other provisions have also reduced. Another unit with strong revenue 3.00 growth (+11%) was Nepal, as the previous quarter was significantly 2.80 affected by movement lockdowns. Indonesia and Malaysia remain the two largest revenue contributors to the group, accounting for 31% and 2.60 26% of total revenue. Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 § 3QFY20 normalised profit jumped by almost seven-fold QoQ to 52 Week Range (RM) 2.66-4.75 3-Month Average Vol (‘000) 3,687.4 RM374.1m, mainly due to the severe impact of lockdowns on all its operations in 2QFY20. Indonesia posted the strongest recovery from SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE RM5.9m in 2QFY20 to RM46m in the current quarter. Likewise, profit from Nepal surged from RM8.5m to RM40m in 3QFY20. Malaysia’s profit 1M 3M 6M improved by 65% QoQ to RM240.1m, accounting for the bulk of group’s Absolute Returns 31.3 20.0 1.5 Relative Returns 16.2 17.6 -10.0 normalised profit. A narrower loss posted by the Other segment (i.e Axiata Digital) has also contributed to the stronger earnings. KEY STOCK DATA § Outlook. Axiata’s share price has recently staged a strong recovery given the improved sentiment in the overall market following news on Market Capitalisation (RM m) 34,202.4 hopes for Covid-19 vaccines. Although we forecast earnings to recover No. of Shares (m) 9,169.5 strongly in FY21F on the back of a rebound in economic activities, it is not likely to revert to pre-Covid-19 levels until FY22F, in our view. In the medium term, we are still expecting potential value creation through MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS asset sales or strategic partnership as the key catalyst for the group. % Hence, at this juncture, we maintain our Neutral rating on Axiata. Khazanah 36.8 Employees Provident Fund 17.7 Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera 14.7 KEY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FYE Dec (RM m) 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F CAGR 23,885.8 24,583.3 24,995.0 26,210.8 27,120.2 3.3% Revenue Operating Profit -2,385.1 4,324.6 2,539.8 2,880.9 3,125.5 -10.3% Pre-tax Profit -4,073.1 2,872.2 1,289.8 1,550.9 1,715.5 -15.8% Core Net Profit 1,009.9 959.7 690.8 900.7 1,002.3 1.5% Core EPS (Sen) 11.1 10.6 7.6 9.9 11.0 1.5% 33.3 35.0 48.7 37.3 33.6 P/E (x) DPS (Sen) 9.5 9.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Eltricia Foong Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 T 603 2268 3000 F 603 2268 3014 Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates E [email protected] 1 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 1 of 4 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD Table 1: Axiata’s results summary YoY QoQ YoY FYE Dec (RM'm) 3Q20 3Q19 chg chg 9MFY20 chg QoQ Comparison (%) (%) (%) All operating units posted higher Operating Revenue 6,111.7 6,213.3 (1.6) 5.5 17,940.7 (2.1) revenue following the easing of lockdown measures imposed in 2Q20 Higher contribution from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Nepal & Cambodia was partly EBITDA 2,839.6 2,801.7 1.4 9.9 7,927.3 0.4 offset by a decline posted by Bangladesh while Indonesia was flattish Depre & amortisation (1,762.1) (1,846.0) (4.5) (4.3) (5,452.8) 4.9 Forex gain/(losses) (116.4) 6.3 >(100) >100 (57.1) >(100) Other operating income 43.7 36.2 20.7 >100 451.2 (23.2) Other gains/(losses) 0.8 (0.1) >100 27.5 2.0 >(100) EBIT 1,005.5 998.0 0.8 34.6 2,870.6 (12.7) Net interest expense (288.2) (425.0) (32.2) (16.2) (1,181.6) 5.5 Associates/Jw 7.2 0.8 819.0 145.8 16.0 >100 PBT 724.5 573.8 26.3 78.5 1,705.0 (21.3) Tax (256.8) (266.6) (3.7) 3.0 (682.5) (9.6) MI (114.7) (127.9) (10.3) 50.0 (401.3) 40.3 Net Profit 353.0 179.3 96.9 >100 621.1 (44.8) Lifted by stronger earnings growth from Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka & Nepal Core Net Profit 374.2 255.2 46.6 >100 546.2 (21.2) while losses at Axiata Digital have narrowed Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates Table 2: Key statistics YoY chg EBITDA breakdown (RMm) 3Q20 3Q19 QoQ chg (%) 9MFY20 YoY chg (%) Malaysia 709.7 640.5 10.8 24.2 1,795.1 (6.6) Indonesia 977.6 967.3 1.1 1.0 2,877.8 5.1 Bangladesh 385.9 347.6 11.0 (13.0) 1,212.7 9.1 Sri Lanka 309.5 278.4 11.1 26.2 833.0 2.2 Nepal 217.6 298.6 (27.1) 41.4 632.4 (30.4) Subscriber base ('000) 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Celcom 8,776 8,623 8,372 7,982 8,028 8,399 XL 56,558 55,500 56,700 55,488 55,674 56,883 Dialog 14,394 15,181 14,890 14,953 15,080 15,329 Robi 47,939 48,194 49,004 49,718 47,977 50,126 Ncell 16,595 16,669 16,871 17,172 15,922 15,331 Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates 2 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 2 of 4 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD KEY FINANCIAL DATA INCOME STATEMENT DATA FYE Dec (RM m) 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 23,885.8 24,583.3 24,995.0 26,210.8 27,120.2 Operating Profit (2,385.1) 4,324.6 2,539.8 2,880.9 3,125.5 Jointly Controlled Entities and Associate Contribution (428.4) (3.5) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) Net Finance Costs (1,259.6) (1,448.9) (1,220.0) (1,300.0) (1,380.0) Pre-tax Profit (4,073.1) 2,872.2 1,289.8 1,550.9 1,715.5 Taxation (901.6) (1,057.1) (335.3) (387.7) (428.9) Effective Tax Rate (%) (22.1) 36.8 26.0 25.0 25.0 Minorities 212.7 (357.5) (263.7) (262.5) (284.3) Reported Net Profit (4,762.0) 1,457.6 690.8 900.7 1,002.3 Growth Revenue (%) -2.1 2.9 1.7 4.9 3.5 Operating Profit (%) -179.5 -281.3 -41.3 13.4 8.5 Core Net Profit (%) -623.6 -130.6 -52.6 30.4 11.3 Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates BALANCE SHEET DATA FYE Dec (RM m) 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Fixed assets 27,290.5 27,290.5 25,641.8 25,398.0 25,218.3 Other long-term assets 24,262.6 24,262.6 31,375.3 30,831.3 30,329.6 Cash at bank 5,071.4 5,071.4 4,224.1 5,185.7 6,870.8 Other current assets 7,230.6 7,230.6 5,393.5 5,328.9 5,570.2 Total Assets 63,855.0 63,855.0 66,634.7 66,743.9 67,989.0 Short-term borrowings 4,483.2 4,483.2 7,631.8 6,000.0 6,000.0 Long-term borrowings 14,646.6 14,646.6 9,194.5 10,000.0 10,000.0 Payables 12,484.4 12,484.4 12,291.3 12,913.5 13,685.1 Other liabilities 14,764.0 14,764.0 21,336.3 21,686.0 22,076.8 Total Liabilities 46,378.2 46,378.2 50,453.9 50,599.5 51,761.9 Shareholders’ Equity 17,476.8 17,476.8 16,180.8 16,144.4 16,227.1 Total Equity and Liabilities 63,855.0 63,855.0 66,634.7 66,743.9 67,989.0 Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates PER SHARE DATA & RATIOS FYE Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Book Value Per Share 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 NTA Per Share -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Gross debt/EBITDA (x) 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 DPS (sen) 9.5 9.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Payout Ratio (%) 85.5 85.5 85.2 105.3 90.8 ROA (%) 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 ROE (%) 5.8 5.8 5.9 4.3 5.6 Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates 3 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 3 of 4 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD RATING CLASSIFICATION STOCKS OUTPERFORM The stock return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark’s total of 10% or higher over the next 12months.
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