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Growth at 8.2%, Yet All Is Not Well Established 1946 1 Pages 16 Price : Rupees Five Vol. 73 No. 35 Growth at 8.2%, Yet All Is Not Well September 23, 2018 Arun Kumar Calling Naidu's Bluffs Sankara Narayanan India’s gross domestic product formation at current prices rising (GDP) has grown at a robust 8.2% from 28.7% to 28.8%. This implies If Maoist Violence is in the first quarter of the current that businesses are not investing Illegitimate, How is Hindutva financial year, according to recently more in machinery and buildings. Violence and State Violence released official data. Thus, even if growth rate is higher Justified? This is the highest in the last two now, this spurt may not continue Swami Agnivesh and years which has seen two shocks both because of the base effect and Sandeep Pandey to the economy in the form of the lack of increase in investment demonetisation and GST. The spurt rates. Theatre of Absurd: in growth is due to a sharp increase At 8.2% rate of growth, there Modi and the in the growth of the manufacturing should be feel good all around in Dawoodi Bohra Pontiff sector (13.5%), construction (8.7%) the economy. Are the protesting Irfan Engineer and agriculture and allied sectors farmers and traders barking up the (5.3%) compared to the same period wrong tree? The farmers should be There is Still Time for an last year. earning much more with a higher Ecological Revolution to Critics have argued that the agricultural growth rate and ought Prevent Hothouse Earth numbers are higher precisely not to be protesting. Are the young because they were so low during protesting about jobs doing so for Editor : G.G.Parikh this period last year. Manufacturing nothing? Job creation in the economy had declined by 1.8%. Construction should be robust and there should Associate Editor : Neeraj Jain had grown at 1.8% and agriculture be less of a crisis of employment. Managing Editor : Guddi at 3%. This is called the base effect. Are businessmen complaining of Growth last year during the difficulties for no cause? Editorial Board : first quarter was low due to the The government has assiduously B. Vivekanandan, Qurban Ali effect of demonetisation. So, if the argued that demonetisation did Anil Nauriya, Sonal Shah economy recovers from the shock not have a negative impact on Nandu Dhaneshwar, of demonetisation, there would be a the economy. If there was some Sandeep Pandey spurt in growth because it is catching adverse impact, it was temporary and up with its trend growth. This is what disappeared soon. It has emphasised D-15, Ganesh Prasad, the officials claim. that the long-term impact has been Naushir Bharucha Marg, The rate of growth in the services positive and that is what is visible Mumbai - 400 007. sector is mostly down compared to now. Email : [email protected] last year. Also, investment is hardly Similarly, regarding GST, the Website:www.janataweekly.org recovering, with gross fixed capital government has argued that it was a 2 JANATA, September 23, 2018 much-needed reform. It is contended till the next survey is done. However, among a large percent of the women that it has had a positive impact on in between the surveys, if there is and children is an indication of the economy after some teething a shock, the ratio changes and the lack of purchasing power with the troubles. The claim is that GST old ratio is no more applicable. A unorganised sectors. Surpluses due has led to ‘ease of doing business’ new ratio is required, for which a to low demand have led to low which has led to a spurt in growth. survey needs to be done, but since prices of agricultural produce and So both these shocks to the economy this was not done, a new ratio cannot depressed incomes. are portrayed as structural changes be calculated. The two shocks due In brief, the two-way movement that have resulted in the present to demonetisation and GST have in the economy—the rise in the higher growth, even if there was a changed the ratio. Thus, the old organised sector production and temporary setback. methodology needs to change. a decline in the output of the Both shocks to the economy, The unorganised sectors which unorganised sector—means the pre- note ban and GST, are portrayed as largely use cash were massively hit demonetisation ratios for estimation structural changes that have resulted by demonetisation. Due to persisting of quarterly growth rates do not hold. in the present higher growth, even if cash shortage for eight months, Earlier, it was implicit in the method there was a temporary setback. they could not revive for long and that the unorganised and organised The problem with these were again hit by GST. While they sectors are growing together—this arguments is that the unorganised have been exempted from GST, or a is no longer true. sector does not figure in any of them. simple provision has been made for Two important conclusions This sector is 45% of the GDP and them (called Composition Scheme), follow. One, the organised sector employs 93% of the workforce. they have been adversely hit due to is growing at the expense of the Data from this sector is collected the design of GST. They are hit by unorganised sector leading to a periodically (not quarterly or even input tax credit (ITC), reverse charge crisis in the latter. Two, official data annually) as is the case with some mechanism (RCM), restrictions on needs to be corrected to take this into components of the organised sector. inter-state sales, and so on. account; if this is done, the rate of The data on the basis of which While official surveys were not growth would turn out to be far less the quarterly GDP is calculated is done, private surveys were conducted than 8.2%. primarily from the corporate sector, and they point to a sharp decline in agriculture and so on. the unorganised sector. Demand for Email: [email protected] The press note issued by the work under the MGNREGS shot government says that for industry, up as workers lost work in urban Janata Subscription “The first quarter estimates are based areas and migrated back to the rural on . abridged financial results of areas. This demand has remained Annual Rs. : 260/- listed companies from BSE/NSE, high. Further, credit off-take reached Index of Industrial Production (IIP) a record low. Finally, investment Three Years : 750/- . .” data showed a sharp decline. These Demand Draft / So not even the entire organised factors support the argument that sector data has been used to estimate there was a sharp downturn in the Cheque on the growth rate. The question of economy. Mumbai Bank using the unorganised sector data The decline in the unorganised does not arise, as it is not available. sector had two consequences. in favour of So how is the unorganised Production from the unorganised sector estimated in the absence sector was substituted by the Janata TRUST of data? Certain assumptions are organised sectors and mass demand made. Namely, that it is growing in from the unorganised sector declined. D-15, Ganesh Prasad, proportion to the organised sector for The latter further hit the growth of Naushir Bharucha Marg, which some data are available. The the unorganised sectors. Coexistence Grant Road (W), ratio of the two sectors is estimated of agricultural surplus along with Mumbai 400 007. in a reference year and this is used persistence of malnourishment JANATA, September 23, 2018 3 Calling Naidu's Bluffs Sankara Narayanan In the recently concluded World India is not unique here. means Hindus) are in some way Hindu Congress (WHC) in Chicago, Something similar has happened extraordinary or unique because Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu in many nations. England was they have managed to ‘tolerate’, or stated that “the only country that conquered by the French in 1066. live in peace with those who have accepts all religions is India”. He Even today, unlike India, the majority conquered India, is wrong. also said, “Even though we have so of English landed nobility and much strength, we never attacked aristocracy are of foreign ancestry. Second Assumption: That India anyone in history.” Queen Elizabeth herself is from the was only invaded, and Indians Some time ago, hundreds of royal house of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha never invaded another country the country’s top writers, artists, of Germany. England's aristocracy No need not go very far to scientists, historians, film makers and still holds its foreign origins with puncture this myth. Indian king other intellectuals had returned their great pride and is not resented by Ranjit Singh's generals captured national awards to lodge their protest the British. Kabul towards the end of his reign. against the growing atmosphere In the thirteenth century, China Of course Ranjit Singh would see of intolerance in the country. was captured by the Mongols under himself as being a Punjabi rather Responding to this awardwapsi, Kublai Khan, who established the than an Indian, because this was a Venkaiah Naidu, who was then Yuan dynasty. This Mongol dynasty time before India became a nation a union minister, had observed, of Yuan is revered in China. North state. “They say tolerance in this country Africa is made up of a mix of races Samrat Ashoka had one of his is coming down. However, India is that have mingled at least since famous pillars in Kandahar. Was it the only country in this world where 450 BC. Turkey was conquered put up out of respect? He probably tolerance is observed, if not 100% at by the Central Asian Turks and raided or threatened to raid if the least 99%.” He further stated, “If you was occupied by a mix of people Afghans did not submit.
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