Tipster Profile – Ron Hemmings of ARH Racing

Editor's Welcome

We have a great issue for you this month and I'm torn as to which of our articles is the highlight.

From Nick Hardman we have a look at the trainers who will surely make you a profit at this year’s Cheltenham Festival.

Followed by an interview by a regular guy who has gone from mug punter to serious profit in the space of two years.

As well as full details of how he's done that and the services that have provided his winning selections (Nick Hardman features) he also gives some handy tips on how to get on with the bookies and more importantly how to keep your accounts open and unrestricted.

We have the first writing of a new column from a pro gambler who diaries at the Secret Betting Club.

We have a profile of arguably the best flat jockey ever, certainly the best from my youth. This guy won the Breeders Cup aged 54 just a fortnight after he was released from prison for what was at the time the biggest tax fraud ever.

Not that I'm applauding tax fraud, but I am in awe of this performance which came five years after he had retired.

I'm of course talking about the great Lester Piggott.

And of course we also have all the regular systems, tables and reviews.

I hope you enjoy this month’s issue and that it guides you to some winners.

All the best

Darren Power

Cheltenham Pointers 2017

All roads lead to Cheltenham as they say and with that comes a raft of information, tips, trends and selections from the racing industry. In truth, such is the fervour surrounding the festival it can be quite overwhelming. If ever you are going to suffer from information overload, then this will be it. I am going to look at the festival statistics for some potential angles that may be put to good use at this year’s meeting. We start with a look at the handicap hurdles.

Handicap Hurdles

There have been 62 handicap hurdle races at the festival since 2003. Paul Nicholls has won 10 of those and Willie Mullins has won 6. Nicky Henderson is next on the list with 5 and then we have Gordon Elliott, Jonjo O’Neill and David Pipe with 3 apiece.

We begin by looking at Paul Nicholls and I can tell you that 6 of his 10 winners have come at the last 4 festivals from 41 runners. It is only a 15% strike rate but you would have made £66.03 profit to Betfair SP if you had backed them all. However, if we dig a little deeper we can improve on those results.

His handicap hurdlers arriving here on the back of a last time out win are 5-17 and horses he runs in the festival handicap hurdles races that are making their UK debut are 2 wins from 4 runners. Sticking to last time out winners and those making their debut on these shores, we come up with an angle that has produced 7 winners from 21 runners (33% strike rate) for a profit of £68.66 at Betfair SP. That is a pretty decent return and one to keep an eye on at this year’s meeting.

Willie Mullins is next on the list with 6 winners from 66 runners (9%) strike rate and backing all his runners would have returned a profit of £32.51. He tends to run multiple horses in these races, as do the likes of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, so being on the right one can be a tricky affair. However, take a look at the price of his winners. Killutagh Vic @7/1, Wicklow Brave @25/1, Don Poli @12/1, Sir Des Champs @9/2, Final Approach @10/1, Thousand Stars @20/1. That tells me it is often his less fancied runners who are worth taking a punt on.

If we look at the odds of all his runners, then we see that 4 of those winners were at odd double figure odds. It is still only 4 winners from 42 runners but concentrate on his runners going off at odds of 10/1 to 33/1 and we see they have produced a profit of £36.91.

The angle here though could be the each-way bet as 10 have either won or made the first four, giving a strike rate of 24%. That boosts profits significantly. Also, bear in mind that a lot of these races have huge fields and enhanced place terms of 5 of 6 places. The software I use to crunch the numbers only looks at each way terms to 4 places for 16 runners or more. I managed to sneak a bit of profit with Urano (6th @33/1) and Whiteout (5th @33/1) in the last two festivals using these enhanced terms. Sempre Medici and Analifet finished 6th and 5th respectively in their races in 2015, both at odds of 33/1.

In general terms, his big priced runners have a decent chance of hitting the frame in these races and are definitely worth a punt. His runners at shorter odds tend to be overbet and there is little value to be had in backing these. If you fancy a Mullins’ runner in the big field handicap hurdle races, go for a couple each-way at fancy prices. You might just be rewarded.

Gordon Elliott is worth a mention as he has not held a licence as long as the other trainers. His 3 winners have come from 35 runners (9% strike rate) but he has had another 9 home in the first four. That gives him a win and place strike rate of 34%. His three winners have come at odds of 12/1, 25/1 and 16/1.

Again, like Willie Mullins, look out for his double figure priced runners and back them each way. A 34% win and place strike rate is exceptional given the huge fields and the competitive nature of these races.

Summary:

Paul Nicholls – Last time out winners and those making their UK debut.

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott – Runners at 10/1 to 33/1 (back them each-way).

With three heavy hitters on the hotlist, it is worth taking a look at those at the other end of the scale – those on the cold list.

First up is Alan King. This one is quite surprising.

He has enjoyed a lot of success with his handicap hurdlers in competitive contests, but most of these have come away from the Cheltenham Festival. Looking at this record since 2003 we find that his runners have a record of 1-60. Although to be fair, 11 of the last 50 have reached the frame to land the each-way spoils.

Next on the cold list is Gary Moore.

From 2005 to 2008 he would typically send out around 4 handicap hurdle runners at the festival. Since then he has been sending out just one or two but they all have one thing in common. Every one of them has been beaten and his overall record since 2003 reads 0-27. Furthermore, just 1 of this last 16 runners has made the frame.

With similar records we have Noel Meade (0-22) and Evan Williams (0-22). As you will see later, Noel Meade runners in handicap races at the festival (chase and hurdle) have a combined record of 0-38. Charlie Longsdon completes the list on 0-17, and again as you will see later, his handicap runners at the festival have a combined record of 0- 36.

Handicap Chases

There have been 79 handicap chases at the festival since 2003. We see much more of a spread in terms of trainer success in the handicap chases with 41 different trainers managing to saddle at least one of the 79 winners since 2003.

David Pipe sits top of the pile with 7 wins, followed by Nicky Henderson on 6, Jonjo O’Neill, Enda Bolger (the cross-country king), Paul Nicholls and Ferdy Murphy (last seen training in France) on 4 apiece. Phillip Hobbs, Venetia Williams, AJ Martin and Alan King have won a handicap chase at the festival on three occasions each.

We start with David Pipe.

He first saddled a handicap chase winner at the festival in 2007. His record reads one winner at every festival since 2007 apart from 2009 and 2013. It is usually one of his fancied runners too. Of his 7 winners, 6 went in at 12/1 or shorter. Sticking to those horses, his record reads 6-26 (a strike rate of 27%) for a profit of £36.23 at Betfair SP. A further 4 have reached the frame, giving him a win and place strike rate of 38.5%. His runners at the last two festivals have form figures of 02113U.

Watch out for anything he sends to Cheltenham this time around, especially if they are quietly fancied in the betting. Also, be wary of his handicap chasers in the 2 mile races as these are 0-9. Sticking to the races between 2m 4f and 3m 2 ½f, his record improves to 7-70 and sticking to those fancied runners going off at 12/1 or shorter, his record improves slightly to 6-24.

Nicky Henderson has not had the best of times with his festival handicap chasers in recent years but 5 of his 6 winners came in races between 2m and 2m 5 ½f. They also went in at big prices and his fancied runners are the ones who have let backers down. Those winners all went in at odds between 14/1 and 25/1. Sticking to runners over trips of 2m to 2m 5 ½f sent off between 14/1 and 25/1, his record improves to 5-37 for a profit of £63.00.

Backing them each-way adds more to the spoils as a further 3 have hit the frame at these prices. I do not think this is an angle in itself, but I would not be afraid to take a punt on a less fancied Henderson runner, especially if racing over the shorter trips (2m 5 ½f or shorter).

Of those with 4 wins, Enda Bolger’s have all come in the cross country race, Ferdy Murphy no longer trains over here, Paul Nicholls is 4-106 but Jonjo O’Neill is worth a second look.

His four winners have all come in races of 3m to 3m 1 ½f from 37 runners and the profit at Betfair SP is £20.56. His runners are 0-32 in races under 3 miles. So, if you fancy a Jonjo runner, look to those racing over 3 miles or further.

The last trainer I want to look at is AJ Martin.

We know he likes to land a touch in a big field handicap and he has 3 wins and 4 places from 23 runners in the festival handicap chases for a profit of £23.99. The three winners went in at 16/1, 16/1 and 7/1 and the placed horses at 20/1, 9/1, 8/1 and 20/1. The win and each way strike rate of 30% perks my interest.

All three winners last ran in a handicap chase from just 11 runners and that boosts profits to £33.99. Those that ran in a hurdle or a non-handicap chase on their previous start are 0-12.

The Cheltenham Festival has become synonymous in recent years with Willie Mullins. Much of that domination is down to his star performers in the Graded races. Fancy one of his in the handicap chases? Think again.

He is 0-27 in such races since 2004, although six did land place spoils.

Also be wary of Nigel Twiston-Davies runners in these events. His record reads 2-68 since 2004. His last 12 runners in handicap chases at the festival have failed to land any win or place money.

Mrs Sue Smith usually runs one or two every year but her record since 2003 reads 1-24. Her last 11 runners have all been beaten with only one reaching the frame.

Others on the cold list include Tom George 0-19, Charlie Longsdon 0-19, Malcolm Jefferson 0-16 and surprisingly, Noel Meade 0-16.

Summary: David Pipe - Runners priced 12/1 or shorter racing over 2m 4f to 3m 2 ½f.

Nicky Henderson – Big priced runners (14/1 to 25/1) over trips under 2m 6f are worth a second look.

Jonjo O’Neill – Runners over 3 miles or further.

AJ Martin – Handicap chasers whose previous start was in a handicap chase.

For our On Course Profit Gold members this month Nick takes a close look at the Irish contingency which always play a big part in any Cheltenham Festival.

You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here... http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

If you'd like to bet alongside Dr Nick at all the big meetings this year, check out his Festival Tips service which made 481 points profit in 2016 - Click Here

Q & A Session with Garry Palmer

1. Hi Garry, first of all could we ask you to tell us a little about yourself and your background. And if you don't mind could you tell us a little about your betting and share a little about how well that has been going since you joined the Betting School Insiders Club?

First off thanks for giving me the chance to participate in this and hopefully what I pass on can help other people with their gambling to make profits.

I work offshore on a drilling rig and my work schedule involves me being away 4 weeks on then off for 4 weeks but luckily enough with the advances in the internet I am able to get my bets on ok offshore.

I first started looking at trying to make a profit from betting in about 2010. I started paper trading everything from laying fillies at short odds and backing the favourites in the 3rd, 5th and 8th race on a Sunday!

When I look back now I can laugh at some of the methods I tried not to mention as well as doing the system merry go round bouncing from one tipster to the next getting sucked in by their sales pitches of how much profit they were making, but their advised prices were long gone by the time you went to back their selections.

It was only when I joined the Betting-School in 2014 that I learned that to be successful you had to find value in your bets, have a proper strategy and staking plan, have patience, discipline and a mind-set to succeed above all.

2. We know from our communications with you that you are successful with your horse bets. What other sports do you feel may offer opportunities for yourself and other punters?

The only other sports I have tried have been soccer and cricket through James Pacheco’s Sports Betting Pays earlier on in the year and I just wasn’t making any headway. To succeed in those sports you need an extremely high strike rate.

I had read somewhere that if you bet on short priced odds with the bookies on different sports like soccer and cricket it keeps them of the scent and prevents them shutting your accounts down but I have replaced the soccer and cricket straight bets now with the odd lucky 15 and accumulator bets at small stakes.

I suppose to answer your question at the minute horse racing is going ok for me although my next move is to get involved in Trading and that is something I am exploring at the minute through your recommendation for the website tradeyourbets.com

3. We understand that you now operate a Portfolio approach to your betting, how did you develop this? Which selection processes / products have stood out for you in the past and which are offering you the best returns currently? What do you think makes these processes / products successful?

I have operated a portfolio approach since December 2015 Nick Hardman’s big race selections, Racing Consultants and later on this year I added JPW tipster to my portfolio which was recommended to me.

Without a doubt Nick Hardman’s big race analysis is offering the best returns as after 12 months following Nick I have made 590 points profit. Racing consultants unfortunately haven’t done as well as 2015 where I made 220 points profit and 28 points profit for 2016 so there will be a decision as to whether to continue with them in 2017. JPW as well is break even after 6 months; it’s a long term thing so in my view you have to give the system at least a year.

I am currently playing for small stakes following “Welshman” on the Betting-School forum and after three months that is one I will definitely be adding to my portfolio playing at bigger stakes for 2017.

The best advantage with the portfolio approach is if one system has a bad month it makes for a smoother ride if the other ones performed well and even things out. 4. Are you a straight bets man or are you a trader? What advantages do you see in straight bets / trading?

I am a straight bets man playing at £50 a point level stakes and £25 for half a point if advised across all systems except Welshman which I’m playing at £10 a point for now but will increase that going into 2017. As I mentioned above Trading is definitely something I am going to learn as you have to keep evolving all the time and look for new angles and methods, you can’t stay still if you want to make profit

5. What staking plan do you advocate? Are you a levels stakes bettor? Do you advocate one kind of staking plan or another? What staking plan in your experience has given you the best return?

It’s hard to go past betting at level stakes and indeed what the Betting School advises is anything over 6/1 do half a point each way.

I know there are lots of different staking plans out there i.e. Fibonacci method the Kelly criteria but at the end of the day if your system isn’t making money at level stakes then there isn’t much point trying any of these more complex staking plans.

My strategy is to keep reinvesting my winnings and increase my stake in line with my betting bank, you will read all sorts on how much you should risk of your betting bank on any one bet from 1% to 5% even 10% in some case which to me is mad.

If a system recommends 100 points to use I use 200 points just to give me that more comfort zone and keep my mind set right whenever the inevitable losing runs come.

Also by reinvesting your winnings you are not making any withdrawals and that has definitely helped to preserve Bookmakers accounts as it costs the bookmakers every time they have to issue you a withdrawal and that flags your account up more to them.

6. Do you find that you are able to place your bets without any problems being incurred with bookmaker’s restrictions or have you encountered difficulties in placing bets?

I have, like everyone else, encountered difficulties at times to place bets but early on I realised that the only way was to keep at least 3 accounts open in different names with all the main bookies and for 2 of my main accounts, I have them in five different family members names.

If you are serious and want to make money this is a must, I have 36 odd accounts, only 3 of which have been shut down completely and another 3 are restricted but not severely. Also when I say shut down it was my decision to shut them down as it was peanuts that the bookies had restricted me too I’m talking like max bets of £1.00 or 50p in some cases, everyone knows these bookies, Boylesports, Bet Victor, Betfair sportsbook, Betbright.

The key thing to remember is when you join a service is to look and see how many points profit they have generated per year. Most people would be happy, and I know from talking to people, that if you are getting 50-100 points a year profit you are doing well.

Now if a tipster is saying that is what he is making, that is to his advised odds that he puts out, you are not always going to get on at these odds even if you go to oddschecker the minute you get the email so the next best chance you give yourself is to make sure you get the closest price to it and that means being able to get on with the best bookie odds available.

As an example in my own case let’s say a horse is advised by Nick Hardman or Racing Consultants at 10-1 and when I go on Oddschecker I see the best available is say with Coral at 8-1, then ill spread my stake out using Coral over the three different Coral accounts. Now if you don’t have an account opened with a bookie that is offering you the best odds, your bottom line profit is affected straight away.

7. What is the best advice you would give someone just starting out on gambling to keep ready access to their bookies accounts?

I would say start out with small stakes initially to keep as many accounts open as possible, when you increase your stakes and need to open accounts in family member’s names I would purchase the IP Identity Cloaker software that was recommended to me.

This is a great tool and can allow you quickly to log into the same bookie under different names whilst showing a different IP Address, there are some bookies like the ones I mentioned earlier whether it be the stakes they see you are using or that you are beating SP it doesn’t matter what you do, it will only be a matter of time before they shut you down.

The single biggest advice I would give anyone for keeping their accounts open is to keep your withdrawals to a minimum or zero and basically keep trying to increase your stake in line with what you have in your betting bank.

Every year you compound your money and it grows providing your systems are still performing.

There are some great articles out there showing the power of compounding your winnings year after year and how quickly your bank can grow. 8. Do you use Betfair regularly? If so how?

I wouldn’t really use Betfair exchange any more than any of the other accounts, I will use it from time to time especially at the weekends when there is plenty of liquidity in the market, but mainly as I still have a lot of my main accounts intact I like to use the exchange as a last resort. I have been stung a few times this year backing a few of Nick Hardman’s selections and they drifted and with Betfair Exchange I didn’t get the Best Odds Guaranteed.

I’m definitely not knocking the exchange it is good and is something that I’m looking at now through trading to get more involved in but only use it if you can’t get on at a better price with a BOG Bookmakers

9. We know from your previous answers that the Betting School Insiders Club has been a big part of your success and we’d be very interested to know why you chose to join Betting School and did you try other services that didn’t help?

I have never tried any other service like Betting School although I was toying with the idea of the Secret Betting Club but had read some good reviews about the Betting School so decided to join. I have enjoyed every minute of it as the Betting School has been the main reason behind my success and I enjoy the banter in the forum as well.

I find the Betting school very good for all the articles they have on betting theory and betting psychology and this is something I’m very interested in. I’m reading up on that hearing what likeminded punters have to say on that subject as it plays a very important part if you want to be successful in this game

10. What does Betting School have to offer its customers that other similar websites do not? Is there one stand out thing which you feel sets Betting School apart from other betting websites?

I would say the best things for me on the betting school is the monthly members report that is sent out there are lots of great articles in it, also the email support from the betting school has been invaluable for me as well.

The one thing I would say that sets the betting school apart is that it is always looking at new angles and looking to keep evolving and a prime example would be the Club Portfolio itself after a successful first year of 50 points profit I’m not sure of exact number but after Year 2 it was at break even after 9 months they decided to change things and by adding Nicks selections to it, it is showing the level of profit we expect.

11. Are there any other services that you rely on for your profits that you would like to recommend to readers.

I also follow Racing Consultants run by Rory Delargy and David Massey, they had a brilliant year in 2015. 2016 has been testing but they are still in profit, my average monthly profit with them since 2015 has been 10.3 points so that’s not bad.

12. And so to the future. Where do you see Garry Palmer going in 2017 with his punting? Are there any angles you are particularly looking to expand upon and if so any you are willing to share with our readers?

Going forward into 2017 I am hoping to expand my portfolio of systems by possibly adding the Elite Service option of speculate to accumulate, that’s one I’m looking in to at the minute. Presently I’m getting feedback on it and will decide if it’s for me or not.

Also I am looking at going into trading it’s just a matter of whether I will get the time to do it or not with my job.

I also plan to increase my stake another 20 % and grow all my betting banks more in 2017, if you really want to grow your money there is no better way of compounding and re-investing your winnings, there is a great example of how this works in the betting theory tab on a website called www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk.

13. What mistakes have you made along the way and what advice would you give to other punters starting out.

There is an old saying out there in sport that you first have to learn to lose before you win, well in betting I can relate this to you have to lose money first by mistakes before you win and don’t make the same mistakes again.

Some of the advice is common knowledge like keeping records of all your bets to see where you stand but I can expand on it some more by relating to my own experience.

I keep an excel spreadsheet with records of every system I have and write down both the Advised Price and the Actual Price that I achieve with the bookmaker.

The reason why it’s a good idea to keep track of your actual price is to see if the system you are following has an edge over the bookmakers or not, there is a great formulae out there called the Archie test and a simple google check will tell you how it works but basically by applying some data from your spreadsheet it gives you a score, and this score will let you know if your system has an edge over the bookmakers prices.

It is very important to be able to look at this especially from a psychological point of view when you experience a losing run and you know your system is good over the long run. I have other formulas I use to, that basically let me know the amount of losers in a row I should expect based on my current strike rate, one of the systems I follow has a 13% win strike rate but this doesn’t include the horses that place and make profit but basically the formulae calculates how many days of losers in a row I could expect from a certain strike rate.

In the above case I think it came out at 49 days in a row, so again this is good mentally to keep you in check if you are going through a losing run as you know what the expectancy should be for losing runs based on your strike rate.

I have made every mistake there is to make over the past two years and hopefully my experience can help other punters but the two most common mistakes to make and I still make the odd blip with is as follows

1. When you place a bet always confirm that you got that bet on with the bookmaker by either writing down the receipt number from the bet or a way of confirming that the money left your account. It’s easy to get distracted and the last thing you want is for a big priced winner to come in and for you to go to your account and confirm you hadn’t placed the bet. Stan James is where you need to watch I have been caught out with this as you actually have to click confirming the bet twice before the money for the bet is taken.

2. Always check that you are getting the best odds for each way bets and that you bet with a bookmaker that gives you 1/4 of the odds as opposed to 1/5 odds when doing each way bets, again it may sound basic but the difference will add up and effect your end of year profit.

Sometimes you will have to make a decision whether to take a 1/5 of the odds but that particular bookmaker is offering you an extra place in the market, but always look at the very bottom of Oddschecker so you get an overview of what each bookmaker is offering you in terms of odds and how many places they pay out.

3. I would advise also to set up at least three accounts in different names with all the main bookmakers in Oddschecker that way you give yourself the best chance of getting on at the advised prices. Keep the stake low enough with each one to keep you under the bookies radar, it is a bit of work up to set them up but the profit will be worth it in the end.

The Long Fellow

Possibly one of the most well-known flat jockeys is Lester Piggott.

It is more than 65 years ago now that Lester Piggott rode in his first Derby at the tender age of 15 on Zucchero, and his skill as a jockey earned him as much prestige in the racing fraternity as Muhammad Ali to the boxing world. Their names could be muttered in the same sentence as equals in their respective fields. Born in 1935 and coming from a family with a long history as jockeys and trainers Piggott as a jockey has almost 4500 career wins to his name including nine Epsom Derby’s between 1954 and 1983 the first of which was on Never say Die while he was still an apprentice.

His racing career began at the tender of age of 10 and he had actually ridden in his first proper race at the age of 12 on a horse called The Chase at Haydock Park. Recognisable by his quiet demeanour and being tall for a jockey at 5 feet 8 inches he earned the nickname of The Long Fellow and like many jockeys he would struggle to keep his weight down to his riding weight of little more than 8 stone, and some 2 stone under his natural body weight. A well-known story says that a typical breakfast for Piggott was a cigar and a cough.

For much of his youth battling his riding weight it seemed that Piggott was more likely to win the Grand National than any Derby race and he in fact rode 20 winners over hurdles including Prince Charlemagne which won the Triumph Hurdle at Hurst Park back in 1954. His weight was much more suited to jump racing rather than as a jockey on the flat, and he admits that it was a struggle to keep the weight off.

“It did feel like a battle. But if we wanted to ride we had to be low. It wasn’t easy but we were all in the same boat because at that time the weights were so much lower.”

He was a competitive jockey, and seen by some as being heavy handed with the whip. His racing career was often marked with race bans even in the early days. At the age of 18 he was banned for 6 months after the authorities agreed that his father had in fact encouraged him to endanger the lives of other jockeys on the track. Sir Peter O’Sullevan once remarked “although even by the time of Zucchero he had collected more suspensions than David Beckham has hair styles. There was something about him. The feeling that he would do his own thing whatever anyone said. But what he did over the years was truly amazing. The discipline and courage needed to keep himself at the top and his body in shape with so ruthless a regime was astonishing.” “He was always the Housewives Favourite,”

His talent was truly spotted early on though by Ken Cuddell the trainer of Zucchero and Piggott’s first ever ride in the Derby. Cuddell said; "That boy is going to be the greatest jockey who ever lived”.

Piggott remembers that ride in his first ever Derby. The horse had been given by his owner to his bookmaker to settle an outstanding debt, and although the horse was a considered a “good one” he had his difficult moments and Cuddell said that no one else was able to control the temperamental Zucchero other than Piggott. The horse finished second in the first ever King George race so horse and jockey must have had some talent between them.

Three years later after that first Derby ride Lester Piggott became the youngest every jockey to win the Derby on Never Say Die. The horse was really an outsider according to Piggott. "He'd been disappointing before the Derby. But that day he was good." The horse won the race at 33-1.

It was Piggott’s particular style of race riding, and his introduction to Europe of short stirrups which was adopted by many of his peers which led to him being Champion Jockey not once but eleven times!

One of his peculiarities of riding was that he was considered too tall to be a jockey hence riding excessively short in the stirrups, this and his height made him easy to spot out on the racecourse. His silhouette was unmistakeable. Apparently when someone once commented to Piggott about his appearance in the saddle with his bottom raised in the air that it was not exactly elegant Piggott replied “and what on hell do you want me to do with the damned bottom?"

His manner and appearance earned him the name of Old Stoneface as he had a tendency not to show any emotion, be that elation or sadness on his face, a face which at the time appeared much older than its years. It was known though that he had in fact problems with speech and deafness which made him come across as uncommunicative. Some of the other jockeys would appear a little frightened of him and when asked whether he used his stony faced manner as a weapon in his jockey’s armoury he replied in an interview “Not consciously. I don’t see why they should’ve been frightened. It’s funny you should say that.” Maybe they were just in awe of him.

With so many winners under his belt you can ask a 100 different people and they will all choose a different Piggott race as their favourite.

1970 saw him win the 2000 Guineas on Nijinsky, a horse which was also known to be temperamental to say the least, but this successful partnership was definitely a winning one.

After the 2000 Guineas Piggott received a note from Romola Nijinsky, the widow of the famous ballet dancer and namesake of the horse, which read:

“I was tremendously impressed with your magnificent winning of the 2,000 Guineas race this afternoon on the beautiful horse Nijinsky, and I send you my congratulations. I ask of you now only one thing – please win the Derby for us!”

Of course they did.

After winning the race Piggott again took some criticism for his use of the whip on the horse, but it cannot be taken away from horse and rider that they cut a poetic picture of man and horse in full flow, but Piggott often needed raw force to secure some of his most famous wins.

When asked about his savage use of the whip Piggott regularly underplays the situation. “You couldn’t have used it like that these days,” he admits. “But I never really hurt the horses. It seemed like I was whacking them but it never was as bad as it looked.”

The considered excessive whipping of Nijinsky though is not the only story to tell, for Mr Piggott had been known on one occasion to steal the whip from another jockey mid race which earnt him a 20 day ban. When interviewed about the incident many years later he was seen to grin mischievously.

The story goes that when riding in a big race in Deauville France in 1979 there was a furlong left to run when Piggott dropped his whip. What to do when you drop your whip, you pinch someone else’s of course. Piggott proceeded to reach over and steal the whip belonging to the French jockey Alain Lequeux! He simple reached out and snatched it from Lequeux’s grasp. Genius!

Lequeux was a friend of Piggott’s at the time and Piggott admits that his desire to win is what drove him to act in such an incredulous manner, to justify his actions though he stated that it looked as though Lequeux was dropping out of the race. It was in fact Lequeux who had knocked Piggott’s whip out of his hand accidentally so Piggott says “I just took his… Instinct. I did it just like that. I finished second. He was third. That was the problem. That’s why they put me off. But no rule covers it.”

Whip stealing is not in the racing’s rule book…

At the end of the 1985 flat season Piggott finally retired as a jockey, but it was to become a short retirement.

Staying within the racing field he went on to become a trainer at his Eve Lodge stables, but this new career was short lived when he was convicted for tax evasion of failing to declare £3.25m in income to the Inland Revenue in 1987. The investigation which was code named Centaur after the mythical half man half horse) showed that Piggott had been using different names to channel earnings into secret bank accounts in Switzerland, the Bahamas, Singapore and the Cayman Islands. It was the largest individual tax evasion case seen in an English court at that time. Piggott was sentenced to 3 years in prison. Of those 3 years he served 366 days.

Leaving prison, and stripped of a previously earned OBE awarded in 1975 he chose to return straight back to racing but as a jockey and achieved something unbelievable.

Having been out of the saddle for five years and just a fortnight after walking out of prison he was riding in the Breeder’s Cup Mile in New York on the Vincent O’Brien trained Royal Academy.

Around the final turn Royal Academy did not earn a mention but the horse came surging out of the back of the field in dramatic style and won the race. Piggott was aged 54. Talking after the race he said “I was a long way back because he had to be. He wasn’t really a mile horse so we had to hold him back as long as possible.”

There is nothing more spine-tingling than a comeback.

When asked if the race brought him any more satisfaction than any of his Derby wins he replied "It's wonderful, really, how it came about. I never intended to come back, and if it hadn't been for Vincent O'Brien, I wouldn't have done it. He said 'why don't you?' and I'd never really thought about it, but I thought it was probably a good idea. I was pretty fit. I'd been riding out. It didn't take long to get going."

He continued riding winners and achieved another Classic race win with Rodrigo de Triano in 1992 in the 2000 Guineas.

He finally called time on his racing career in 1994.

His personal life has not been without media attention in more recent years following his move to Geneva, Switzerland, (there has to be an irony there), to live with his girlfriend, 20 years his junior, Lady Barbara Fitzgerald, at the age of 76 back in 2012.

The move to Geneva was with the blessing of his wife of more than 50 years Susan Armstrong to whom he is still married who said, “Put it this way. At 72 you feel very differently about things than you do at 25. All I wish for is Lester’s health and happiness. There are no hard feelings.”

And who says romance is only for the young.

Tipster Profile – Ron Hemmings of ARH Racing

So what can we tell you about Ron Hemmings the man behind the lucrative ARH Racing service?

Well for a start he is a man with plenty of years of experience under his belt.

His first recollection of horseracing was way back in the 50’s when he won a few pennies after having backed a horse called Tulyar which was owned by the Aga Khan. The horse won the Epsom Derby and at the time was ridden by Charlie Smirke, though his best experience was on that never to be forgotten Saturday at Ascot when Frankie Dettori rode his 7 winners. Ron missed the first 2 but he made sure he was on the next 5 :)

From then on Ron developed the bug for racing and since his retirment he has found himself in the enviable position of being able to spend much of his spare time studying the horses.

This additional time to study form has been invaluable to Ron. He can take the time to analyse carefully the racing results, monitoring trainer and jockey form and keeping up to date with many a replay of the days racing, while noting race conditions and distances.

Like many of us he has a preference for Handicap races as he prefers an each way bet, (a man after our own heart), as the Handicaps will tend to offer up much better value on the odds. He also likes to specialise in those tracks where he has had previous success.

One thing he has learned in his 50 years plus of horse racing passion is that it pays to concentrate on no more than two meetings per day if you want to do them justice. It is very easy to fall in to the trap of betting on every race.

This lesson was learned as Ron admits he used to make this mistake and would regularly try and cover all of the days racing. He now knows that you need years of experience to become successful in this betting and tipping game. There is always something new to learn and being selective in your bets was one lesson Ron learned well. He has also learned the importance of understanding whether a horse will stay the distance or does it want further, are the going conditions set for the runner, who is on board and can the horse carry the weight allotted and still be in with a chance, and on the flat we can’t forget the draw. Does the horse break out of the stalls well or a slow starter. Learning all of these facts doesn’t happen overnight.

There is a reward for this hard work though. The satisfaction of seeing all your studying pay off when you pick a winner gives you a buzz and then of course there is the financial reward of making a few pounds from your successful selection. Ron’s view is if he can help a few others make the bookies pay out by offering his selections then he will be very happy to see that too.

He is methodical in his study and will spend 2 hours in an evening before the days racing looking through his races and then will review again the following morning for a couple of hours. As we all know so much can change overnight.

His tips are daily and since his service began he has not yet missed one day of tipping. He offers up 1-3 selections per day and the selections are always available by no later than 10.00a.m each morning.

Some of his bets will be WIN ONLY, some will be EACH WAY and on occasions there will also be EACH WAY DOUBLES.

Picking a winner always brings a great deal of satisfaction, and although he has in the past dabbled in football and cricket Ron says that he just doesn’t get the same kicks as he does with horse racing.

He knows that anyone following a tipping service is looking for good value for their money and that they want to have the confidence that the service will offer them regular monthly profits. Ron feels that with his years of experience under his belt he can offer this to his customers.

You can also find Ron participating in a major bookmakers Jump competition which runs yearly from the end of November until the Cheltenham Festival meeting in March. He will be pitting his skill against many in their national competition in the hope of picking up one of their small incentive prizes. To date he has managed 3 second places, 1 third place and a 4th place in the last 5 years so he must be doing something right!

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Offer expires 7th February 2017

From Little Acorns Great Oak Trees Grow

There are occasions when it can be very easy to overthink a method or system when in fact simple statistics can often offer the key to possible positive results. This is the foundation of the idea behind the Acorn Principle.

No one is saying that it is the route to massive riches, but what we are aiming for is a regular number of systems which can work together each month to produce an overall positive return.

You can on occasions with such a multiple method approach find yourself staking more than one selection in the same race which can be counterproductive. From February onward we are going to take a look back at some of the methods over the past 12 months which have worked for us and add potential new methods which we hope will work successfully alongside, while continuously developing and evolving.

February really is the time of the National Hunt season and so could it be worth our while looking at those trainers who have in the past offered up winners during the month of February.

Handicap Chasers – Sue Smith Sue Smith trains out of her stables in West Yorkshire and over the past 3 years (2014- 2016 inclusive) had you backed Sue Smith’s Handicap chasers during the month of February you would have cleared almost 26 points profit backing those runners going off at 9/1 or lower.

Sue Smith Handicap chasers during the month of February 2014-2016

And taking a look at the timeline shows a minimal loss for 2016 but a modestly healthy strike rate which does make us take a closer look at how things may fare this year.

2017 has got off to a flying start for the stable over the jumps with 7 entries running well enough to produce 4 winners at the time of writing.

With a longest losing sequence over the period reviewed of 6 losers in a row we feel that with the current form as it is we may be able to produce a profit from Sue Smith’s Handicap Chasers through February which go off in single figures.

Handicap Hurdlers – CJ Down (Chris Down) Chris Down operates from the over end of the country in Mutterton South Devon and over the past 3 years Chris Down has produced steady results with his Handicap Hurdlers during the month of February.

2015 figures have improved the results thanks to a 33/1 winner in Hot Pepper back in February 2015 but removing this winner and other runners priced greater than 20/1 reduces the profit figures but leaves us with a healthy ROI.

Simple £10.00 stakes would still return us over £100.00 for a £170.00 investment or close to a 64% return. A longest losing run sequence of 4 also gives us comfort that we may find similar success this year.

Of those 8 placed horses 7 of them were in Class 3 and 4 Handicap Hurdle races and the Class 5 runner was a short placed 100/30 which added little to the overall profit and loss figures.

This year has got off to a slow start for the Down stables but we still feel that it is worth taking a chance and following Chris Down’s Handicap Hurdlers in Class 3 and 4 races during the month of February whatever the price. Back Each Way.

With the Handicap races covered for February what about the Non Handicaps can we find any particular trainer who may, given past performances, prove to be profitable during the coming month?

Non Handicap Chasers / Hurdlers and NHF – Noel Meade Noel Meade over in Ireland may well be the one to be with to give us a little extra action when it comes to Non Handicaps.

Many services concentrate solely on the UK racing, but the Irish racing can offer up some profitable angles on occasion too. Noel Meade’s Non Handicap runners over the past 3 years during February would have yielded us a modest profit and strike rates which offer some comfort too.

But it is those runners which are going off in single figure prices and are therefore suggestive of a good run which offer up the real returns.

In fact ALL of the 11 winners went off at 12/1 or lower and 18 of the 19 horses placed went off in the same price range.

So we will be following Meade’s Non Handicap runners for February over in Ireland looking to go off in price at 12/1 or lower, WIN ONLY, as they look to offer up possible profits to add to our Handicap Chasers and Hurdlers.

National Hunt Flat – NB King / Neil King For the National Hunt Flat in the UK we are going to look at following Neil King (NBKing).

With a possible couple of runners over the month the number of bets playable may appear negligible, but little snippets like these can go unnoticed by many of the larger regular punters and offer up some value if landed worthy of a little patience.

The SP_PL figure is skewed here due to a 33/1 winner in 2015 but that aside it is the strike rates which we are taking notice of. In fact if you remove those runners going off at greater than 20/1 the strike rates become of significant interest.

For February we are going to be looking to back ANY Neil King National Hunt Flat runner Each Way. The strike rates generally are such that we feel it is worthwhile backing every runner given the number of likely entries.

One may lands us a big price, and using Betfair we feel sure that any returns can be enhanced. Hopefully a combination of the small acorns above will provide an overall profit for February.

For the purpose of recording the results we’ll record the Betfair Starting Prices and Industry Starting Prices and report back in our April issue on how we will have fared.

Other methods we will be carrying through this year from previous issues.

All Year Round

Here Come The Girls Jennie Candlish – Class 4 runners or lower on flat turf. WIN ONLY

7.25 points profit (ISP) a place strike rate of over 43% means we feel that she is worth sticking with for the coming year.

J Camacho – 3yr old Handicap Turf Flat Runners – PLACE ONLY

6.65 points profit from this angle with a PLACE Only approach (BFPP) and worthy of another years commitment.

April

Ralph Beckett Flat Turf Non Handicap runners WIN ONLY

Produced a shade less than 7 points profit for the month based on a strike rate of 25%. Will keep with this for 2017.

May, June, July, August

A W Carroll Summer National Hunt Chasers - WIN ONLY or EACH WAY (depending on your preference).

6 runners produced 1 winner priced at 12/1. All runners were priced in double figures.

August

All Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque runners – WIN ONLY or EACH WAY (depending on your preference).

8 runners for 2016 with one winner (25/1) and a further placed horse (20/1) ISP’s. All runners were priced 16/1 or greater.

18.00 points profit to WIN Only and 23.25 points to Each Way.

September

BJ Llewellyn Handicap runners Class 4 or lower (Flat Turf) - WIN ONLY or EACH WAY (depending on your preference).

Just the 4 runners but of those 3 placed with 1 winner.

WIN ONLY to ISP returned 7.00 points EACH WAY 14.75 points.

October

Nigel Twiston-Davies Non Handicap Chasers & Hurdlers which go off less than 12/1 (excluding odds on favourites) – WIN ONLY.

A small profit of a shade over 3 points (ISP) but strike rate of in excess of 35% means we’ll stick with this for another year. It may be that all are jumping on board this angle now and hence prices are shortened.

November, December, January, February, March, April

The Three Amigos became the Two Amigos concentrating on National Hunt Handicap runners over Hurdles from K Bishop and A Honeyball. November 2016 – -4.80 points profit (ISP) December 2016 - +2.00 (ISP) January 2017 to date - -1.00 (ISP)

December

Ben Pauling – National Hunt Non Handicap Runners Backing to win only in the month of December.

7 winners (8 placed) from 23 runners and a profit to ISP of 52.50 points thanks to the 40/1 shot Perfect Pirate on 15th December!

Henry Oliver’s Handicap Hurdlers couldn’t match the Pauling results with just 1 winner from the 9 runners and 3 placed horses in total.

Not a complete disaster but overall a loss of -3.00 points.

Are you a gambler? Managing your betting bank.

In our third and final article on gambling psychology we take a look at effective ways of managing your betting bank.

As we stated in the very first article, being a successful punter is, in my opinion, 40% picking the right selections and 60% having the right mental attitude to succeed. We started off by looking at managing expectations and controlling those emotional responses to good days and bad days.

Putting yourself under unnecessary pressure by aiming too high and expecting too much often leads to a loss of discipline and with that comes heavy losses, potentially wiping out your betting bank. We followed up with some simple rules for managing losing runs. They happen to all of us and they happen a lot. In fact, this game is more about losing than it is about winning. A system or service with a 25% strike rate means 3 out of every 4 bets lose. Getting your head around this will really help you in the long term.

If you cannot handle the fact you will lose more often then you win then you should not be betting at all. With those two aspects covered, we turn our attention to money management.

Setting up your betting bank. Many years ago, I suffered from being the archetypal mug punter. One of the things I did continuously for years was to try and “win” a betting bank rather than deposit one at the beginning. The reason for this was that I could not justify to myself depositing £2000 in my accounts in one single go. It seemed too much under the circumstances. Instead I used to put £50, £100 or maybe £200 in my accounts at any one time with a view to building it up to the £2000 that I desired to start betting with properly. This ties in with our first article.

My expectations were simple, but wrong. Turn £50, £100 or £200 into £2000 and then start betting properly with a staking plan. It is obvious what happened. I lost time and time again, not big amounts, just my £100 or £200. However, over time I lost thousands of pounds doing this, more than enough to cover my desired £2000 bank a few times over. With this experience in mind, my advice is simple. If you want a £2000 bank to start things off, then deposit that amount. If you do not have it then save your hard earned until you have. To be honest, the exact amount is irrelevant. Decide what size bank you want and deposit it in your accounts. Trying to “win” a betting bank cost me thousands so do not make the same mistake I did.

How much to stake? The next thing you have to do is work out what you will stake on each bet. There are many ways to do this and it really does depend on personal preference. We will run through a few different examples. There is no right or wrong way but discipline again is the key. You must have a staking plan rather than randomly placing bets using different stakes.

Level staking For the Big Race Analysis, we recommend a 200pt bank and we bet 2pt win and 1pt each way. Using our £2000 bank as an example then this equates to £10 per point and £20 for win only bets and £10 each way for each way bets. We stick to this throughout the year, irrespective of what our running profit and loss (P/L) is.

This is a very simple form of staking and it works for me and those that follow the Big Race Analysis selections. This is an example of level staking as we do not adjust the win or each way stakes dependent on price. If we go win only on a 3/1 horse or win only on a 10/1 horse, we keep to 2pts or £20. The same applies to each-way bets. Whether the horse is advised at 12/1 or 40/1 we still stake £10 each way. People like Hugh Taylor and Ben Linfoot (top tipster from Sportinglife) advise 1pt wins on all their selections.

If you follow these guys, then do exactly what they advise. In this case, you would back their selections at £20 a time from the £2000 betting bank. Split staking This is something I used to do many years ago but have to admit I am not really a fan.

I remember watching a video by Mark “The Couch” Winstanley and he said if you have £100 to bet with and you fancy a 33/1 shot then stick your £100 on it. The point here is that people often reduce their stakes on bigger priced selections and increase their stakes on shorter priced selections. That is absolutely fine if you want to do that but it can be frustrating to bag a 33/1 winner knowing you only had £2.50 each way on it.

Split staking is very simple and applies to those who back more than one selection in a race, a technique calling “dutching”. You decide how much you want to bet on a race and then you divide your stake up such that you win the same amount whichever one of your horses win. Let’s say you want to bet £50 on the Grand National and you fancy 4 horses. The prices of the horses are 10/1, 16/1, 33/1 and 40/1. Using a dutching calculator (freely available on the internet) you would place the following stakes.

Horse A @10/1 = £22.33 Horse B @16/1 = £14.45 Horse C @33/1 = £7.23 Horse D @40/1 = £5.99

If one of your horses wins, and it does not matter which one, your returns would be £245.66, which is a profit of £195.66. To put that in perspective it is roughly the same as backing one horse @4/1 for £50 as the returns and profit are roughly the same. There is nothing wrong with this but I would be kicking myself if the 40/1 horse won and I only had £6 on it. If these were level stakes bets at £12.50 a go (same outlay of £50) then the returns would have been as follows:

Horse A wins = £125 profit minus £37.50 for the three losers = £87.50 profit.

Horse B wins = £200 profit minus £37.50 for the three losers = £162.50 profit.

Horse C wins = £412.50 profit minus £37.50 for the three losers = £375.00 profit.

Horse D wins = £500 profit minus £37.50 for the three losers = £462.50 profit.

Clearly, we win less if horse A wins, take a slightly smaller profit if horse B wins and take some serious profit if horses C or D win. Like I say this is just down to personal preference. I prefer level stakes as we back a lot of big priced horses over the course of the year and I want to maximise the gains on these when they do go in.

Percentage staking In percentage stakes betting your stake changes dependent on the value of your betting bank at the time of placing the bet. This is a popular method of staking and introduces us to the power of compounding, which is perhaps one of the most potent ways to build your bank. Let’s use a £2000 bank as an example. If our staking plan is to bet 5% of our bank on each selection, then our first bet would be £100.

Simply divide your bank by 100 and then multiply by 5. If you are betting 2% of your bank, then this would be £40 (2000/100 x 2). We will stick with 5% in this example.

If you back a 4/1 horse with your 5% stake (£100) and it wins then you win £400. Your bank now stands at £2400. To keep backing at 5% you recalculate your stake based on your new bank total. In this case, it is £120 (2400/100 x 5). If your bet had lost, then your bank would stand at £1900 and your next bet would be for £95 (1900/100 x 5). The point here is that you recalculate your bank prior to each bet and stick to your 5%. If anything, 5% is a bit on the high side for me and I would go with 1% or 2%.

The advantages of compounding are that your bank will grow very quickly compared to having the same success with a level stakes plan. The downside is that your recovery from losing runs will take more time as your stake is reduced each time your bank total goes down. This is not such a bad thing since recovering slowly from losing runs is a disciplined approach that we covered in the previous article.

You do not necessarily need to recalculate your bank prior to every bet to utilise the power of compounding. You could choose to bet at level stakes for a month and then recalculate your bank. In this case, again using 5% as an example, you would back each selection for a month at £100. At the end of the month you then recalculate what your 5% equates to and then bet at level stakes with this new amount for another month, repeating the process at the start of each new month. Alternately you could recalculate your stake at the beginning of each year. This is something I like to do as it also allows me to take out my annual profit and then go again.

Compounding every bet can be risky if you see your bank growing quickly as it's easy to become over excited and lose some discipline when things go wrong. You may also start to envisage such things as paying of your mortgage and so forth when you see how potent this can be. Again, this is a bad thing as we discussed in our earlier article on managing expectations. Again, this is personal preference and my preference is to recalculate my bank annually. Remember, the money is not yours until you withdraw it so be careful not to get carried away with compounding, despite the potential fast growth of you betting bank.

Taking out your profits This is crucial and from experience it is something that I advocate wholeheartedly. I once turned an initial betting bank of £300 into £2900 in the space of 3 months (despite having no staking plan or systematic approach to finding selections). Needless to say, I lost it all in one day. Yes, one day. The last bet was over a grand on an Irish bumper race on the odds-on jolly (who slipped up on the bend rounding for home). The problem here was I convinced myself I had only lost £300 (my initial outlay) and to some extent this is true. However, in reality I let £2600 of free money wash away down the drain. I actually thought I had cracked the Holy Grail.

If I could turn £300 into £2900 in three months then just imagine what that £2900 would have looked like in another three months. In reality it read £0.00 on my Betfair account. I actually do not regret this event happening as it was a turning point for me. I think you have to learn from your mistakes in this game and I know quite a few pro punters who have similar, if not worse, stories to tell. In order to win money you need to know how to lose money and not withdrawing your winnings on a regular basis is an important lesson I learned long ago.

The other thing about withdrawing your winnings on a regular basis is that it helps keep your feet on the ground. If you have too much in your accounts at any one time then you sometimes think that there is enough gun powder in there to blast your way out of trouble at any one time. Nothing could be further from the truth. If you keep sensible amounts in there then you are more likely to bet sensibly. I know a lot of people who take out their winnings every month and a few that do so every 6 months or at the end of the year. Even though you are reducing your overall betting bank, you are in effect protecting yourself against emotional betting, unrealistic expectations and ill-discipline. It is simple. Take out regular amounts and do not let the balance build up too much no matter how successful a run you are on.

To recap, these are the golden rules of money management:

• Decide on a betting bank amount and deposit that amount in full.

• Decide on which staking plan suits your betting style and stick to it.

• If you are following a tipster, service or system, use the staking plan they advise.

• Withdraw your winnings on a regular basis and do not let that bookie account balance affect your expectations.

In summary, the mindset needed to be a successful punter consists of managing your expectations, managing your losing runs and managing your betting bank. Backing the right horses is less than half the battle.

Bet Diary

Hello and welcome to a new monthly column!

Before we start, I should introduce myself.

I’ve run a successful and profitable portfolio of betting tipsters for over five years. During that time I’ve been lucky enough to contribute many tipster reviews for the Secret Betting Club and write a blog entitled the ‘Bet Diary’ for visitors to the SBC website. The Bet Diary addresses the various issues that arise whilst following several tipsters, and aims too to help those bettors with less experience or who are starting out in their quest to put their betting on a more professional footing by exploring topics that directly affect them.

I try to illustrate the points made in the bet diary by following in real time a portfolio made up of six horse racing betting services, a football tipster, and a golf betting expert. Results for the portfolio as a whole and the services in it are updated at the end of each diary post so my betting can be followed as it goes along. I find that this allows readers to better grasp the realities of what I call ‘serious betting’. For example the bet diary highlights the losing runs as well as the successes, it deals with issues that bettors face when they start to bet professionally, such as how to keep bookmaker accounts open for longer and how to grow a betting operation. In short, it deals with the nitty gritty of making money by gambling.

Of course the nature of the betting game is such that performance in the short term can often swing sharply. The end of 2016 became a bit of a slog and I was more than happy to take time away from it all by escaping down to the Devon coast over Christmas to recharge the batteries. Not placing a bet for ten days was just what the doctor ordered!

But January’s betting has already cleared December’s losses and produced a great profit. Since the turn of the year, the Return on Investment of the portfolio is running at a remarkable (and unsustainable) 38.4% which translates into bank growth of 5.5%! Happy days!

Fail To Prepare, Prepare To Fail It never fails to surprise me just how many people embark on a serious money-making pursuit without proper planning. I hear and read of (mostly) failed business ventures which have often suffered due to a lack of initial research and organisation.

To me, betting is an investment, and a serious one at that. Put it this way…I have no intention of just giving up my hard-earned to the bookmakers without doing everything I possibly can to turn the odds in my favour. Conducting full “due diligence” – i.e. developing a properly thought-out plan as to how we are going to make money before we actually start – is an absolutely vital part of the process.

Just prior to going away at Christmas, I wrote a piece entitled What Is This Betting Lark All About? Is It Business Or Pleasure. In it I ask the question: have you actually sat back and thought exactly what it is you’re trying to achieve with your betting? I believe this is where it all starts; having a clear idea of what we want to achieve and setting ourselves realistically achievable targets.

Basically, we need to write a business plan for our betting operation and by doing so we give ourselves the best chance of succeeding. Naturally, with Christmas done and dusted, thoughts turned to 2017 and getting the portfolio ready for the New Year’s betting. As previously mentioned, I had taken a break with family for ten days over the Festive period and this, along with a couple of minor tweaks I decided to make to my portfolio of betting tipsters was the subject of the post, Getting Ready - 2017 Here We Come!

One of the most common questions I’m asked by SBC members is what do I do about my betting when I’m on holiday. I think there’s a big temptation to worry that ‘sods law ‘will inevitably kick in if you make the decision not to bet whilst away, and that loads of profit will be missed as the tipsters you follow will provide their members with winner after winner at double digit prices. You can read my thoughts on this and why in fact it’s more important to have a proper break from betting every now and then in the post.

Continuing the theme of starting the New Year on the right footing when it comes to betting, was the piece, The New Year - always a good time to get things right. This article really starts to attack the basic building blocks of a betting portfolio, and takes a look at the most basic of fundamentals – choosing which tipsters to follow.

The article outlines a basic checklist for identifying which tipsters are worth following and points out that this is an area where there is no need to take unnecessary risks. After all, if we make bad choices in terms of which services to sign up to, then our betting is doomed to fail before we even start! So why gamble on getting this right when we really don’t need to?

And finally Getting your "Money Head" straight addresses the importance of proper financial management. Too many times I see folk seriously overstaking in relation to the resources they have available, and little wonder that these people are put out of the game as soon as the inevitable bad run hits.

My belief is that a huge part of betting for long term profit is mental – that by being able to keep a clear head when the pressure is on we are giving ourselves the best chance of success. A massive part of this is to set our finances up properly for betting, to put into place appropriately sized betting banks for each of the tipsters we follow. This bet diary post addresses just how to go about doing just that.

So that’s all for this month. I’ll be back in the next issue of On Course Profits, and until then, happy punting!

Read all of my Bet Diary posts and Meet me!

Product Reviews

We have 3 new services under review this month but first up a look at a service which has performed commendably.

Daily Racing Brief

Cost: Introductory offer of 50% of regular price, then £40.00 per month thereafter.

The Trial: The latest month for this service has proved difficult but although the profits for the month was down compared to previous months, to its merit, it still managed to turn a profit of 15 points.

The strike rate has remained remarkably consistent and for that we have to commend the service. Our 3 month trial as a whole has seen 327 selections produce 92 winners and 20 additional placed selections and an overall profit of over 170 points to advised stakes and odds with Best Odds Guaranteed.

Conclusion: Take advantage of the 50% introductory offer while you still can. We don’t expect this to be around indefinitely.

Cost: Free for first 7 days then £99.00 every 30 days (£249.00 every 3 months £459.00 every six months or £849.00 per annum).

The Trial: A stand-alone betting service offering emailed tips for horse racing, football, tennis, snooker and Formula 1, Martin the man behind the service, offers a 7 day free trial to the service together with access to his daily tips in a password protected members area of the site.

We started monitoring this service toward the end of December 2016 which possibly isn’t the best of times, but by the end of the first month we had received 5 football tips two of which were winners priced at 5/4 and evens.

In addition over the last 9 days of December we received 42 horse racing tips of which there were 6 winners (the largest price of which was 5/1).

We have a feeling that this service is working on a retrieval staking plan although this is not clear at these early stages but at 1 point level stakes by the end of the first part month we would have shown a loss of 21 points.

On receipt of the tips the starting stake was 10 this was then raised to 20 and by the end of the month had increased to 30 hence our concern about the retrieval staking but we need to investigate further before reaching this as a final conclusion.

Conclusion: Jury is out. You can find out more about this service here.

Cost: £49.00 per month / £99.00 every 3 months / £279.00 per annum.

The Trial: The service is marketed by the Stark Investors and as the title suggests offers each way tips.

Our review has just a couple of weeks to report on so far and after having received 19 selections on the morning of the days racing we have had 3 winners, the largest priced being 3/1, with 3 additional placed horses, the largest being priced at 16/1.

Our 1 point each way to date is showing a small loss but it is early days so let’s see what next month brings.

Conclusion: The jury is out. In the meantime click here to find out more about the service.

Cost: Join for free but paid services are £29.99 per month (Inner Circle / Trading Room), No Win No Fee £10.00 per win, Mobile Text Service £49.99 per month and Underground High Rollers (POA)

The Trial: Another service for which it is early days under review but to date we have had 13 winners from 38 selections and are showing a small profit of just over 3.50 points to the advised prices (2.50 points to Betfair Starting Prices).

The majority of the selections are short priced and we have noticed that they are also keen to push other services which they are currently promoting with frequent emails being received confirming winners which you would not have received.

We are finding this pushiness a little annoying but we will keep monitoring for a few months in fairness to ensure we can offer up a true picture of the service.

Conclusion: The jury is out. Find out more here.

Cost: £1.00 for the first 30 days then £39.95 per month or £99.95 quarter.

The Trial: After a difficult month this service still managed to produce a profit of over 30 points to their advised prices, 10.0 points at Betfair SP and a little less than 4.00 points to SP. Conclusion: A definite! We strongly suggest the 30 day trial for £1.00. Find out more here.

Cost: £1.00 for the first 30 days then £49.95 per month or £119.95 quarter.

The Trial: The Quentin Franks Value Tips provides one or two selections the evening before the days racing.

So far we have received 36 selections of which 9 were winners and produced a profit of almost 8 points to the advised prices.

We have found that the markets are very thin and that a few people trying to get a reasonable bet on will find the price dropped within minutes and this is possibly one of the easiest way to find your bookmaker accounts restricted.

Conclusion: The jury is out on the QF Value Tips but you can find out more here.

Cost: First 30 days £1.00 plus VAT and then £39.95 per month / £99.95 per quarter plus VAT.

The Trial: The latest month has given us 9 winners from 59 selections and a loss of almost 18 points.

Our final position overall stands at 38 winners from 183 selections and a loss of a shade under 10 points.

Conclusion: The loss isn’t disastrous but once you have accounted for your subscription costs we doubt you would be overly happy.

Tipster Top Ten

Out Tipster Top Ten based on the last 90 days using Best Odds Guaranteed to Advised Stakes.

1. Sports Bet Paradise – Strike Rate 36% ROI 67% Sports Bet Paradise is a new entrant straight in at the top and with their contacts of “professional gamblers, industry insiders and ex bookmakers” the suggestion is that they have all bases covered. Selections come from a range of sports though mainly horse racing and football.

The last two months have produced a combined profit of 170 points! Find out more about the service

2. Unity Racing Club - Strike Rate 21% ROI 34% Climbing the table this month is the Unity Racing Club. 2017 has got off to a good start with winners such as Lough Kent 9/1, Bobble Brou 12/1 and Elementary 4/1 building on the previous months profit. Find out more about the service

3. High Roller Racing – Strike Rate 52% ROI 31% Another service to hit the table this month is High Roller Racing. With a strike rate of 52% the prices may be short but turning a 31% ROI is excellent. Offering up a tip a day profits are steady and consistent so this service may well appeal to those of you who prefer a comfortable ride rather than the volatility of some of the services out there which offer big returns but long losing runs. Find out more about the service

4. Howard’s Eyecatchers – Strike Rate 28% ROI 31% Returning to the Tipster Table after a spell of absence is Howard’s Eyecatchers. The end of 2016 went out quietly but 2017 has started off well on a positive with the 22/1 winner at Wolverhampton, Pool House.

Whether they can maintain their position needs to be seen. Find out more about the service

5. In The Know Racing – Strike Rate 32% ROI 25% In The Know Racing is another returner to the table. November ended well with a positive profit but December saw the service have a losing month, albeit not exactly serious. We are pleased to say that 2017 has returned to positive form. Find out more about the service

6. Lucky 7 Naps - Strike Rate 23% ROI 25% You have to be prepared to ride a rollercoaster with this service, but somehow they manage to turn a profit and a good one finding winners such as Goal 25/1.

Their staking is 5 points so when the big priced ones come in the returns are equally as big. Find out more about the service

7. Racing Investment – Strike Rate 49% ROI 24% Racing Investment ended 2016 with a healthy 55 points profit for December and so they have room for manoeuvre as 2017 has got off to a slow start. Still plenty of time to turn things around though at the time of writing. Find out more about the service

8. Russell Blair Racing - Strike Rate 24% ROI % Russell Blair Racing had a few big priced winners toward the end of last year with General Tufto 16/1, Ad Vitam 14/1 and January looked as though it was going to be in a similar vein with Essenaitch wining at 16/1.

Since then though they have been on lean terms and could do with finding form again. Find out more about the service

9. Win Napster – Strike rate 35% ROI 24% Win Napster closed the year well but sadly their start to the New Year has been marred by 10 consecutive losers only recently broken by a win from just Cameron at 5/2. Find out more about the service 10. Artisan Investments – Strike Rate 33% ROI 17% Artisan Investments closed out 2016 according to their website with a 37% ROI (Suspect to advised odds and stakes), and are currently “full”. There results suggest a bit of a rollercoaster ride but a profit overall. Find out more about the service