Tipster Profile – Ron Hemmings of ARH Racing
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Editor's Welcome We have a great issue for you this month and I'm torn as to which of our articles is the highlight. From Nick Hardman we have a look at the trainers who will surely make you a profit at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. Followed by an interview by a regular guy who has gone from mug punter to serious profit in the space of two years. As well as full details of how he's done that and the services that have provided his winning selections (Nick Hardman features) he also gives some handy tips on how to get on with the bookies and more importantly how to keep your accounts open and unrestricted. We have the first writing of a new column from a pro gambler who diaries at the Secret Betting Club. We have a profile of arguably the best flat jockey ever, certainly the best from my youth. This guy won the Breeders Cup aged 54 just a fortnight after he was released from prison for what was at the time the biggest tax fraud ever. Not that I'm applauding tax fraud, but I am in awe of this performance which came five years after he had retired. I'm of course talking about the great Lester Piggott. And of course we also have all the regular systems, tables and reviews. I hope you enjoy this month’s issue and that it guides you to some winners. All the best Darren Power Cheltenham Pointers 2017 All roads lead to Cheltenham as they say and with that comes a raft of information, tips, trends and selections from the racing industry. In truth, such is the fervour surrounding the festival it can be quite overwhelming. If ever you are going to suffer from information overload, then this will be it. I am going to look at the festival statistics for some potential angles that may be put to good use at this year’s meeting. We start with a look at the handicap hurdles. Handicap Hurdles There have been 62 handicap hurdle races at the festival since 2003. Paul Nicholls has won 10 of those and Willie Mullins has won 6. Nicky Henderson is next on the list with 5 and then we have Gordon Elliott, Jonjo O’Neill and David Pipe with 3 apiece. We begin by looking at Paul Nicholls and I can tell you that 6 of his 10 winners have come at the last 4 festivals from 41 runners. It is only a 15% strike rate but you would have made £66.03 profit to Betfair SP if you had backed them all. However, if we dig a little deeper we can improve on those results. His handicap hurdlers arriving here on the back of a last time out win are 5-17 and horses he runs in the festival handicap hurdles races that are making their UK debut are 2 wins from 4 runners. Sticking to last time out winners and those making their debut on these shores, we come up with an angle that has produced 7 winners from 21 runners (33% strike rate) for a profit of £68.66 at Betfair SP. That is a pretty decent return and one to keep an eye on at this year’s meeting. Willie Mullins is next on the list with 6 winners from 66 runners (9%) strike rate and backing all his runners would have returned a profit of £32.51. He tends to run multiple horses in these races, as do the likes of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, so being on the right one can be a tricky affair. However, take a look at the price of his winners. Killutagh Vic @7/1, Wicklow Brave @25/1, Don Poli @12/1, Sir Des Champs @9/2, Final Approach @10/1, Thousand Stars @20/1. That tells me it is often his less fancied runners who are worth taking a punt on. If we look at the odds of all his runners, then we see that 4 of those winners were at odd double figure odds. It is still only 4 winners from 42 runners but concentrate on his runners going off at odds of 10/1 to 33/1 and we see they have produced a profit of £36.91. The angle here though could be the each-way bet as 10 have either won or made the first four, giving a strike rate of 24%. That boosts profits significantly. Also, bear in mind that a lot of these races have huge fields and enhanced place terms of 5 of 6 places. The software I use to crunch the numbers only looks at each way terms to 4 places for 16 runners or more. I managed to sneak a bit of profit with Urano (6th @33/1) and Whiteout (5th @33/1) in the last two festivals using these enhanced terms. Sempre Medici and Analifet finished 6th and 5th respectively in their races in 2015, both at odds of 33/1. In general terms, his big priced runners have a decent chance of hitting the frame in these races and are definitely worth a punt. His runners at shorter odds tend to be overbet and there is little value to be had in backing these. If you fancy a Mullins’ runner in the big field handicap hurdle races, go for a couple each-way at fancy prices. You might just be rewarded. Gordon Elliott is worth a mention as he has not held a licence as long as the other trainers. His 3 winners have come from 35 runners (9% strike rate) but he has had another 9 home in the first four. That gives him a win and place strike rate of 34%. His three winners have come at odds of 12/1, 25/1 and 16/1. Again, like Willie Mullins, look out for his double figure priced runners and back them each way. A 34% win and place strike rate is exceptional given the huge fields and the competitive nature of these races. Summary: Paul Nicholls – Last time out winners and those making their UK debut. Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott – Runners at 10/1 to 33/1 (back them each-way). With three heavy hitters on the hotlist, it is worth taking a look at those at the other end of the scale – those on the cold list. First up is Alan King. This one is quite surprising. He has enjoyed a lot of success with his handicap hurdlers in competitive contests, but most of these have come away from the Cheltenham Festival. Looking at this record since 2003 we find that his runners have a record of 1-60. Although to be fair, 11 of the last 50 have reached the frame to land the each-way spoils. Next on the cold list is Gary Moore. From 2005 to 2008 he would typically send out around 4 handicap hurdle runners at the festival. Since then he has been sending out just one or two but they all have one thing in common. Every one of them has been beaten and his overall record since 2003 reads 0-27. Furthermore, just 1 of this last 16 runners has made the frame. With similar records we have Noel Meade (0-22) and Evan Williams (0-22). As you will see later, Noel Meade runners in handicap races at the festival (chase and hurdle) have a combined record of 0-38. Charlie Longsdon completes the list on 0-17, and again as you will see later, his handicap runners at the festival have a combined record of 0- 36. Handicap Chases There have been 79 handicap chases at the festival since 2003. We see much more of a spread in terms of trainer success in the handicap chases with 41 different trainers managing to saddle at least one of the 79 winners since 2003. David Pipe sits top of the pile with 7 wins, followed by Nicky Henderson on 6, Jonjo O’Neill, Enda Bolger (the cross-country king), Paul Nicholls and Ferdy Murphy (last seen training in France) on 4 apiece. Phillip Hobbs, Venetia Williams, AJ Martin and Alan King have won a handicap chase at the festival on three occasions each. We start with David Pipe. He first saddled a handicap chase winner at the festival in 2007. His record reads one winner at every festival since 2007 apart from 2009 and 2013. It is usually one of his fancied runners too. Of his 7 winners, 6 went in at 12/1 or shorter. Sticking to those horses, his record reads 6-26 (a strike rate of 27%) for a profit of £36.23 at Betfair SP. A further 4 have reached the frame, giving him a win and place strike rate of 38.5%. His runners at the last two festivals have form figures of 02113U. Watch out for anything he sends to Cheltenham this time around, especially if they are quietly fancied in the betting. Also, be wary of his handicap chasers in the 2 mile races as these are 0-9. Sticking to the races between 2m 4f and 3m 2 ½f, his record improves to 7-70 and sticking to those fancied runners going off at 12/1 or shorter, his record improves slightly to 6-24. Nicky Henderson has not had the best of times with his festival handicap chasers in recent years but 5 of his 6 winners came in races between 2m and 2m 5 ½f.