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Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” (CMEPS-J Report No Report of Simple Tall of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” (CMEPS-J Report No. 8) 1 Report of Simple Tally of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” An Empirical Study of the Political System and Its Change in the Middle East from the Perspective of Public Opinion Research CMEPS-J Report No. 8 (Updated on July 3, 2017) TAKAOKA Yutaka (Middle East Institute of Japan) YAMAO Dai (Kyushu University) HAMANAKA Shingo (Ryukoku University） SUECHIKA Kota (Ritsumeikan University) NISHIKIDA Aiko (Research Institute for Languages and Cultures of Asia and Africa – TUFS) AOYAMA Hiroyuki (Tokyo University of Foreign Studies) I. Purpose The purpose of “The Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” is to grasp: 1) how Syrian people evaluate their own way of living, 2) how Syrian people view humanitarian and economic aid from foreign countries including Japan. II. Cooperative Organizations and Collaborative Research Projects ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ 、In conducting the survey, we have had full support of the Syrian Opinion Center for Polls & Studies (SOCPS Director Rizq Elias) to finalize the contents of the questionnaire, doing samplings, making interviews ,ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺭﻱ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻄﻼﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﻴﺎﺕ with poll subjects and inputting data. Yutaka Takaoka, who was a researcher in charge of “An empirical study of the political system and its change in the Middle East by means of public opinion surveys,” and Hiroyuki Aoyama, who helped the research and headed “Non-state Actors and Political Structures in the Middle East after the ‘Arab Spring’” Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research 2015 – 2018 (Heisei 27 – 30) (Basic Research Program (B) 15H03132), were in charge of liaison and coordination with SOCPS. Preparation of the public opinion survey, and its data processing, etc. were conducted by Takaoka, who was a researcher in charge of “An Empirical Study of the Political System and Its Change in the Middle East from the Perspective of Public Opinion Research” (headed by Shingo Hamanaka), and Aoyama, his research collaborator. III. Method of Public Opinion Survey 1. Survey schedule The first step: Preparation (From December 1, 2016 to March 7, 2017) The first pretest (five investigators administered it to fifty people. January 15, 2017) The second pretest (five investigators administered it to fifty people. January 31, 2017) Deciding on the questionnaire (Based on the pretest results, the “Trust / Not trust” choice and two satellite broadcasting stations were added to Q1-5. Q4-2 was divided into two: the case of moving house inside Syria (Q4-2-1) and the case of moving house to the outside of Syria (Q4-2-2).) The second step: Field survey (From March 8, 2017 to May 5, 2017) Report of Simple Tall of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” (CMEPS-J Report No. 8) 2 The administration of the real survey (twenty-five investigators, five supervisors. From March 8, 2017 to March 31, 2017) Collecting the written questionnaires (From April 1, 2017 to May 2, 2017) The third step: Preparation of the final report (From May 2, 2017 to June 1, 2017) Preparation of the final report (From May 8, 2017 to May 25, 2017) Sending of the image files of the written questionnaires and the image files depicting the survey administration to Japan (From May 8, 2017 to May 30, 2017) Sending of the final report to Japan (June 2, 2017) 2. Survey subjects 1,500 male and female Syrian nationals aged 18 to 65, residing in the Syrian Arab Republic. 3. Survey method Door-to-door individual personal interview in Arabic. Number of survey staffs: 20 4. Method of sampling Samples to be pulled out in the following manner. Rely on the population consensus of 2004 of the Central Statistics Bureau of the Cabinet Office, the demographic estimates of 2011 by said Bureau, and the demographic estimates of 2016 by SOCPS survey team. Determine samples by the stratified two-stage random sampling method (cluster sampling in the second stage, with systematic sampling from each cluster). The 1st stage: 6 prefectures are selected from the following 5 geographical districts comprising Syria. Southern Jazeera region (consisting of Hasakah Prefecture, Deir Ezzor Prefecture and Raqqa Prefecture): Hasakah Prefecture Northern region (consisting of Aleppo Prefecture and Idlib Prefecture): Aleppo Prefecture Seashore region (consisting of Lattakia Prefecture and Tartous Prefecture): Lattakia Prefecture Central region (consisting of Hims Prefecture and Hamah Prefecture): Hims Prefecture Southern region (consisting of Damascus Prefecture, Damascus Suburb Prefecture, Quneitra Prefecture, Daraa Prefecture, Sweyda Prefecture): Damascus Prefecture and Damascus Suburb Prefecture The 2nd stage: In each prefecture, 30 clusters (with each cluster consisting of 100-200 households) are selected, representing demographic diversities in ethnicity (religion/sect, native tongue), social attributes, economic attributes and habitat (urban/rural). For clusters in Governorates, refer to “VI. Cluster”. Variables considered in selection of clusters are as follows: 1) Sex (male, female) 2) Age bracket (18-24, 25-35, 36-50, 51-65) 3) Academic level (illiterate, barely literate, elementary education, high-school education, professional school education, university graduate, post-graduate education) 4) Religion 5) Economic level (income, living standard, 3-stage) 6) Social level (3-stage) Report of Simple Tall of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” (CMEPS-J Report No. 8) 3 After cluster selection, select 10 households at random from each cluster and 1 member from each household for interview. Sample error Prefecture: Since accurate population dynamics are not available due to national and international refugee emigration activated by the Arab Spring, sample distribution within the 6 survey prefectures, Hasakah, Aleppo, Lattakia, Hims and Damascus/Damascus Suburb, was made in equal 300 samples each. Substitutes for clusters: Substitute clusters were surveyed for part of the clusters that proved difficult to be interviewed. Sex, education level, etc: In the Syrian society, male household members are deemed to be subjects for interview surveys, which tendency has called for more numbers of male than female samples. Numbers of illiterate and barely literate samples have been reduced, considering the rising education levels in Syria. Numbers by survey Prefectures of samples and those who refused to respond Damascus and Aleppo Lattakia Hims Hasakah Total Damascus Suburb Number of samples 300 300 300 300 300 1,500 (respondents) Number of non-respondents 16 12 100 7 21 156 Total 316 312 400 307 321 1,656 Map: Subdistricts where surveys were conducted. Report of Simple Tall of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” (CMEPS-J Report No. 8) 4 IV. Tally results of opinion survey counts 1. To what degree do you trust the following media? Trust more or Not trust very Trust very much Trust Not trust at all Do not know Total less much Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % 1-1. Syrian newspapers and magazines 168 11.2 269 17.9 506 33.7 280 18.7 193 12.9 84 5.6 1500 100 1-2. Newspapers and magazines issued in other Arab countries 7 0.5 50 3.3 245 16.3 479 31.9 574 38.3 145 9.7 1500 100 1-3. Newspapers and magazines issued in non-Arab countries 32 2.1 74 4.9 193 12.9 316 21.1 663 44.2 222 14.8 1500 100 1-4. Syrian television stations 326 21.7 439 29.3 402 26.8 186 12.4 140 9.3 7 0.5 1500 100 1-5. Satellite broadcasting stations in other Arab countries (Also, please select two from among them and give reasons for your selection of them.) 190 12.7 357 23.8 355 23.7 244 16.3 341 22.7 13 0.9 1500 100 1-6. Syrian radio stations 225 15.0 336 22.4 469 31.3 189 12.6 187 12.5 94 6.3 1500 100 1-7. Radio stations in other Arab countries 11 0.7 48 3.2 170 11.3 399 26.6 605 40.3 267 17.8 1500 100 1-8. The Internet (news websites) 91 6.1 307 20.5 423 28.2 304 20.3 271 18.1 104 6.9 1500 100 1-9. SNS (Social Networking Service) 127 8.5 296 19.7 416 27.7 335 22.3 257 17.1 69 4.6 1500 100 1-10. Word of mouth 198 13.2 273 18.2 385 25.7 266 17.7 368 24.5 10 0.7 1500 100 0.5 0.9 0.7 5.6 6.3 6.9 4.6 9.7 9.3 14.8 17.8 12.9 22.7 12.5 17.1 24.5 12.4 18.1 12.6 18.7 38.3 16.3 22.3 26.8 20.3 17.7 44.2 40.3 31.3 23.7 33.7 25.7 28.2 27.7 31.9 29.3 21.1 26.6 23.8 22.4 18.2 17.9 19.7 20.5 16.3 12.9 21.7 11.3 12.7 15 13.2 11.2 4.9 8.5 3.3 3.2 6.1 0.5 2.1 0.7 Trust very much Trust Trust more or less Not trust very much Not trust at all Do not know Report of Simple Tall of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syria 2017)” (CMEPS-J Report No. 8) 5 1-5. The total results of “Please select two from among them and give reasons for your selection of them” 1-5-1. Satellite broadcasting stations selected as the ones trusted: Rank Channels Trust very much (%) Trust (%) Total (%) 1 Al-Manar (Hezbollah, Lebanon) 22.1 16.5 38.6 2 Al Mayadeen (Pro-Syrian governmental station, Lebanon) 11.1 17.9 29.0 3 Al Arabia (UAE) 13.7 9.2 22.9 4 Al Jadeed (Amal-side, Lebanon) 7.4 10.6 18.0 5 Russian Today 7.9 9.2 17.1 6 Al-Alam (Iran) 8.9 7.6 16.5 7 Roj (Kurdistan, Iraq) 7.4 4.8 12.2 8 Al Jazeera (Qaṭar) 3.2 3.9 7.1 9 OTV (Free Patriot Movement’s side, Lebanon) 1.6 3.4 5.0 10 MTV (Murr side, Lebanon) 2.6 2.0 4.6 1-5-2.
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