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ADVANCE PRAISE for Open Networks, Closed Regimes “Many hope that information technology will generate new opportuni- ties for global communications, breaking down national barriers even in dictatorial regimes with minimal freedom of the press. Kalathil and Boas provide a path-breaking and thoughtful analysis of this issue. A fascinating study, this should be widely read by all concerned with un- derstanding and promoting democratization, regime change, and new information technology.” —Pippa Norris, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University “Through a country-by-country analysis, Kalathil and Boas shed light on practices formerly known only by anecdote, and their findings chip away at the apocryphal notion that going digital necessarily means go- ing democratic. Their work answers a number of important questions, and frames a worthy challenge to those who wish to deploy technology for the cause of political openness.” —Jonathan Zittrain, Berkman Center for Internet & Society, Harvard University Open Networks Closed Regimes GLOBAL POLICY BOOKS FROM THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE Africa’s New Leaders: Democracy or State Reconstruction? Marina Ottaway Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve Thomas Carothers Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism Marina Ottaway Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers, Editors Managing Global Issues: Lessons Learned P. J. Simmons and Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, Editors A Public Role for the Private Sector: Industry Self-Regulation in a Global Economy Virginia Haufler The Third Force: The Rise of Transnational Civil Society Copublished with Japan Center for International Exchange Ann M. Florini, Editor FOR THESE AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS FROM THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT, VISIT www.ceip.org/pubs Open Networks Closed Regimes The Impact of the Internet on Authoritarian Rule Shanthi Kalathil Taylor C. Boas carnegie endowment for international peace Washington, D.C. © 2003 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202-483-7600 www.ceip.org The Carnegie Endowment normally does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views and recommendations presented in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of the Carnegie Endowment, its officers, staff, or trustees. To order, contact Carnegie’s distributor: The Brookings Institution Press Department 029, Washington, D.C. 20042-0029, USA 1-800-275-1447 or 1-202-797-6258 Fax 202-797-2960, E-mail [email protected] Text set in Sabon. Composition by AlphaWebTech, Mechanicsville, Md. Printed by Malloy Lithographing of Ann Arbor, Mich., on acid-free paper (85% recycled content). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kalathil, Shanthi. Open networks, closed regimes : the impact of the internet on authoritar- ian rule / Shanthi Kalathil and Taylor C. Boas. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. ISBN 0-87003-194-5 (pbk.) 1. Authoritarianism—Case studies. 2. Internet—Political aspects—Case studies. I. Boas, Taylor C. II. Title. JC480 .K35 2002 320.53—dc21 2002013713 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 5 4 3 2 1 1st Printing 2003 Contents Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi Acronyms xiii CHAPTER ONE The Conventional Wisdom: What Lies Beneath? 1 CHAPTER TWO Wired for Modernization in China 13 CHAPTER THREE Channeling a “Limited” Resource in Cuba 43 CHAPTER FOUR Catching Up and Cracking Down in Singapore, Vietnam, and Burma 70 CHAPTER FIVE Technology and Tradition in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt 103 CHAPTER SIX Beyond Blind Optimism 135 vii viii CONTENTS Notes 155 Glossary 179 Works Cited 183 Index 201 About the Authors 217 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 218 Foreword As the information revolution rapidly unfolds, Internet use is profoundly affecting governments, corporations, and societies around the world. Many of these effects, while widely assumed to be significant, have yet to be fully explored. In the absence of thorough analysis, unexamined assumptions about the Internet’s likely impact have become conventional wisdom. Tales of wired dissidents toppling strong-armed leaders, along with long-held be- liefs about the medium’s inherently democratic nature, have lent credibil- ity to the idea that the Internet inexorably undermines authoritarian re- gimes. Having outlasted the initial euphoria surrounding the information age, this notion has now solidified into a truism. It is an assumption that informs the speeches of politicians, creeps into policy debates, and pops up as fact in press reports. Few serious studies have yet tested this view. While new research has focused on individual countries or particular types of users, none has looked for patterns of effects across a broad sample of authoritarian regimes, giving equal consideration to Internet use by government, business, and civil society groups. In this book, Shanthi Kalathil and Taylor C. Boas carefully examine the full range of Internet use under eight authoritarian regimes. They dem- onstrate how the Internet’s net impact on authoritarian rule has often been obscured by conventional wisdom. In China, for instance, the Internet- enabled protests of the Falun Gong must be weighed against the government’s efforts to channel online discourse and extend its own au- ix x FOREWORD thority through Internet use. In Cuba, independent journalists may post their stories on web servers outside the country, but most citizens are shielded from the global Internet and encouraged to use a national com- puter network with government-authorized content. In some Southeast Asian countries, globally wired activist networks square off against gov- ernments who use the Internet to drive economic development and boost standards of living. And in many parts of the Middle East, the Internet increases access to Western images and ideas but also offers a soapbox for Islamic fundamentalists who oppose broadening civil liberties. Overall, as Kalathil and Boas note, the Internet is challenging and help- ing to transform authoritarianism. Yet they also argue that information technology alone is unlikely to bring about its demise. Their study is a valuable corrective to the blind optimism equating the Internet with free- dom, and it invites readers to realistically reflect on how the Internet might be better leveraged for democratic aims. This book builds on research conducted over the past three years at the Carnegie Endowment. It will serve as an innovative and useful guide for policy makers, activists, and anyone else who wants to use the potent information tools of the twenty- first century to promote greater global integration and understanding. Jessica T. Mathews President Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Acknowledgments This book could not have been written without the support of a number of individuals and organizations. We would like to thank Jessica Mathews, Paul Balaran, George Perkovich, and Thomas Carothers for creating a welcoming institutional environment at the Carnegie Endowment and for steadfastly encouraging our research efforts in an emerging field. Maria Carlo and Pavani Reddy deftly handled the administrative and research assistance that we needed to keep the project organized and on track. Trish Reynolds, Sherry Pettie, and Catherine Wigginton guided us through the publication process, while Carmen MacDougall and Scott Nathanson expertly publicized our research. Carnegie librarians Kathleen Higgs and Chris Henley and former librarian Jennifer Little amassed many of the sources upon which this study relies. We are also indebted to the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Rockefeller Foundation, whose generous support of the Carnegie Endowment’s Global Policy Program made this project possible. In particular we wish to recognize William J. Drake, founding director of the Information Revolution and World Politics Project at the Carnegie Endowment, for his key role in launching this initiative and guiding it through its early stages. Our frequent discussions with Bill helped shape the framework and argument of this study in countless ways. We absolve him of responsibility for any shortcomings in the final product, but he can deservedly take credit for opening many of the doors that have helped make this book a reality. xi xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We owe a special debt of gratitude to colleagues who read portions of the manuscript and offered feedback during the revision process, includ- ing Jon Alterman, Thomas Carothers, Peter Ferdinand, Will Foster, Nina Hachigian, Veron Hung, Philip Peters, Garry Rodan, and Deborah Wheeler. In addition, we would like to thank the numerous individuals around the world who generously provided us with information and insight during on- and off-the-record interviews. Their contributions proved invaluable in shaping the conclusions of this study. Last but certainly not least, we are grateful to all those who have of- fered intellectual guidance, moral support, and encouragement during this research endeavor. They include David Collier, Terry Karl, Laura Krejsa, James Mulvenon, Helen Oliver, Minxin Pei, P. J. Simmons, Jon Wolfsthal, John Zysman, the members of the Chinese Internet Research Group, and our
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