The Decline of Institutional Religion

Faith Angle Forum South Beach, Florida March 18, 2013

Luis Lugo Pew Research Center Washington, D.C.

www.pewforum.org I Long-Term Trends in Religious Affiliation

100 %

70 62 Protestant 60 51 50

30 26 25 20 Catholic 18 10 None 7 0 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2010

Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2010. Other religious affiliations and those who did not give an answer are not shown. 1 Declining Share Are Protestant

60 %

53 50 48

40 White evangelical

White 20 mainline

Black 10 Protestant

Other minority Protestant 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-2012. 2 Growth of the Religiously Unaffiliated

25 %

20 20

15 15 Nothing in particular

5 Agnostic

Atheist 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-July 2012. 3 Trends in Religious Affiliation, 2007-2012

07-12 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Change % % % % % % Christian 78 77 77 76 75 73 -5 Protestant 53 52 51 51 50 48 -5 White evang. 21 19 20 19 18 19 -2 White mainline 18 18 17 17 17 15 -3 Black Protestant 8 8 9 9 9 8 -- Other minority Prot. 6 6 6 6 6 6 -- Catholic 23 22 23 23 23 22 -1 Mormon 2 2 2 2 2 2 -- Orthodox 1 1 1 1 1 1 -- Other faith 4 5 5 5 5 6 +2 Unaffiliated 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.4 18.6 19.6 +4.3 Atheist 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 +0.8 Agnostic 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 +1.2 Nothing in particular 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 +2.3 Don’t know 2 2 2 2 1 2 -- 100 100 100 100 100 100

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007- July 2012. In the change column, figures that 4 are statistically significant are shown in bold. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Demographic Groups

2007 2012 Change % who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % % U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3

Men 18 23 +5 Women 13 17 +4

College grad+ 17 21 +4 Some college or less 15 19 +4

$75,000+ 16 21 +5 $30,000-$74,999 15 20 +5 <$30,000 17 20 +3

Northeast 15 21 +6 Midwest 15 19 +4 South 12 15 +3 West 21 26 +5

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold. 5 Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Race

2007 2012 Change % who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %

U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3

White 15 20 +5

Black 13 15 +2

Hispanic 16 16 --

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Hispanic figures based only on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold. 6 Religious Switching: Recruitment

% who were raised in…

Same religion Different religion Current religion

Protestant 83 17

Catholic 89 11

Unaffiliated 25 74

0 20 40 60 80 100

7 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Religious Switching: Retention

% who are currently… Same religion Different religion Unaffiliated Childhood religion

Protestant 80 6 13

Catholic 64 21 14

Unaffiliated 58 40

0 20 40 60 80 100

8 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. II Importance of Religion

Very Somewhat

General public 58% 22%

Unaffiliated 14 19

Atheist/Agnosti c 2 14

Nothing in particular 19 22

0 20 40 60 80 100

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 9 Composition of the Unaffiliated

Atheist 12% 29%

Religious unaffiliated Agnostic Nothing in 16% particular 71%

Religiously indifferent

42%

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 10 A Closer Look at the Nothing in Particulars

All NiPs Religious Unaffiliated Religiously Indifferent

Identify 23 as a 48 religious person 6

Believe in 39 God, 64 absolutely certain 22

27 Pray daily 49 or more 12

0 20 40 60 80

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. 11 Believe in God or Universal Spirit?

Yes, absolutely certain Yes, but less certain Net

Affiliated 77% 20% 97

Unaffiliated 30 38 68

Atheist/Agnosti 38 c 9 29

Nothing in 81 particular 39 42

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 12 Frequency of Prayer

Daily Weekly/monthly

Affiliated 66% 22%

Unaffiliated 21 20

Atheist/Agnosti c 6 11

Nothing in particular 27 24

0 20 40 60 80 100

Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 13 Frequency of Worship Attendance

Monthly/ Seldom/ Weekly Yearly Never DK N % % % % U.S. general public 37 33 29 1 = 100 17,010

Affiliated 48 34 18 1 = 100 13,821 Christian 49 33 17 1 = 100 13,086 Protestant 49 33 17 1 = 100 7,316 White evangelical 63 27 10 1 = 100 3,473 White mainline 27 43 30 * = 100 3,035 Black Protestant 56 32 12 1 = 100 1,319 Catholic 41 41 17 1 = 100 3,692 White Catholic 41 41 18 * = 100 2,546 Hispanic Catholic 42 41 16 1 = 100 866

Unaffiliated 5 22 72 1 = 100 2,942 Atheist/Agnostic 3 13 83 1 = 100 908 Nothing in particular 6 26 67 1 = 100 2,034

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 14 Other Spiritual Beliefs % saying they believe in each of the following

Unaffiliated Affiliated % % Spiritual energy located in physical things such as mountains, trees and 30 25 crystals

Yoga, not just as exercise, but as a 28 23 spiritual practice

Reincarnation, that people will be 25 24 reborn again and again

Astrology, that the position of 25 25 stars/planets can affect people’s lives

Evil eye, that certain people can cast 12 17 curses or spells that cause harm

Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, August 2009. Q291a-c,e,f. Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown. 15 Supernatural Experiences

Unaffiliated Affiliated

% saying they have experienced each of the % following: %

Been in touch with someone who has 31 29 already died

“Religious” or mystical experiences 30 53

Seen or been in the presence of a ghost 19 18

Consulted a fortuneteller or psychic 15 15

Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life survey, August 2009.Q292a-c;Q290. Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown. 16 Reflecting on the Meaning of Life

How often, if at all, do you think about the meaning and purpose of life?

Often Sometimes Rarely /never DK % % % % Affiliated 70 22 8 1 =100 Christian 70 21 8 1 = 100 Protestant 73 20 7 1 = 100 White evangelical 79 15 5 1 = 100 White mainline 62 29 9 * = 100 Black Protestant 82 14 3 1 = 100 Catholic 63 25 11 1 = 100 White Catholic 67 25 8 * = 100 Hispanic Catholic 57 23 17 3 = 100

Unaffiliated 53 29 17 1 = 100 Atheist/Agnostic 45 37 18 * = 100 Nothing in particular 56 26 17 1 = 100

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q21a. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 17 Identity as a Spiritual or Religious Person

Religious Spiritual only Neither

Affiliated 75 15 8

Unaffiliated 18 37 42

Atheist/Agnostic 7 34 57

Nothing in particular 23 39 36

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q50. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 18 Looking for a Religion?

Nothing in particular

% of “nothing in particulars” who are… %

Looking for religion that is right for them 10

Not doing this 88

Don’t know 2

100

Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. 19 III

Religious Affiliation by Age

Unaffiliated Affiliated Don't know/Refused

18-29 32 67

30-49 21 77

50-64 15 84

65+ 9 90

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. 20 Life-Cycle Effect on Affiliation

% unaffiliated with a religion, by generation

Source: General Social Surveys. 21 Importance of Religion

% saying religion is very important in their lives, by generation

Source: Gallup Surveys. 22 Daily Prayer

% saying they pray daily, by generation

Source: General Social Surveys. 23 Attendance at Religious Services

% saying they attend several times a week, every week or nearly every week, by generation

Source: General Social Surveys. 24

Trends in Disaffiliation, by Religious Attendance

% of each attendance category that is unaffiliated

60 %

50 49 Seldom/never attend

40 38

20 Attend monthly/yearly 13 11 10

3 Attend weekly or more 2

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-2012. 25 Common Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion

Raised Raised Catholic, Protestant, now now unaffiliated unaffiliated

% saying important reason left former religion % %

Just gradually drifted away from the religion 71 71

Spiritual needs not being met 43 39

Stopped believing in the religion’s teachings 65 50

Found a religion they liked more 10 11

Unhappy with teachings about the Bible 29 36

Dissatisfied with atmosphere at worship services 26 29

Dissatisfied with clergy at congregation 18 25

26 Source: Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S., April 2009, Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life Liminal Nones

% of liminal nones in various religious traditions

Source: Chaeyoon Lim, Carol Ann MacGregor, and Robert Putnam, Secular and Liminal: Discovering Heterogeneity Among Religious Nones, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Volume 49, Number 4, December 2010. 27 IV Ideology Among Registered Voters

Conser- Mod- Lib- vative erate eral % % %

All registered voters 39 36 21

Unaffiliated 20 38 38 Atheist/Agnostic 13 32 51 Nothing in particular 23 41 31

Affiliated 44 36 17 Christian 46 35 15 Protestant 48 33 15 White evangelical 65 25 7 White mainline 39 39 20 Black Protestant 33 39 23 Catholic 39 42 17 White Catholic 41 42 15

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January- July 2012. Based on registered voters. Those 28 who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Social and Political Issues

U.S. general public Unaffiliated Affiliated Abortion should be… % % % Legal in all/most cases 53 72 49 Illegal in all/most cases 41 24 46 Don’t know 6 4 6 100 100 100 Same-sex marriage… Favor 48 73 41 Oppose 44 20 50 Don’t know 9 7 9 100 100 100 Prefer… Bigger gov’t, more services 39 42 38 Smaller gov’t, fewer services 52 50 52 Depends/don’t know 9 8 10 100 100 100

Source: Abortion figures from aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2011-2012. Same-sex marriage figures from aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2012. Views on role of government from Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey, January 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.

29 Party Identification Among Registered Voters

Rep/ Dem/ Lean Rep Lean Dem % % All registered voters 43 48

Unaffiliated 26 63 Atheist/Agnostic 18 73 Nothing in particular 30 58

Affiliated 48 45 Christian 49 43 Protestant 50 42 White evangelical 71 22 White mainline 52 40 Black Protestant 7 89 Catholic 44 47 White Catholic 50 41

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January- July 2012. Based on registered voters. Those 30 with no party preference (who refused to lean) are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Religious Composition of Democratic/Democratic- Leaning Registered Voters

Other Religiously Unaffiliated 18% 24%

Hispanic Catholic 5%

White Catholic Black Protestant 16% 13%

White White mainline evangelical Protestant Protestant

9% 14%

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. Based on registered voters. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. “Other” includes Protestants and Catholics of a race or ethnic group not shown and those affiliated with 31 other religions. Views About Churches and Religious Organizations % saying they agree that churches and other religious organizations do each of the following

Unaffiliated Affiliated

Are too concerned with money 70 and power 47 67 Focus too much on rules 47

Are too involved with politics 67 41

Bring people together and 78 strengthen community bonds 90

Play important role helping 77 poor and needy 90

Protect and strengthen morality 52 81

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q73a-g. Those saying “disagree” and those who did not give an answer are not shown. 32 Views on Religion and Politics

Affiliated Unaffiliated

Important for a 75% president to have strong religious beliefs 32%

Churches should keep 51 out of political matters 66

Churches should not 64 endorse candidates 75

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Sources: Data on president’s religious beliefs and churches endorsing candidates comes from Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Data on church involvement in political matters comes from Pew Research Center survey, March 2012. 33 In Their Own Words – Main Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion

Raised Raised Catholic, Protestant, now now unaffiliated unaffiliated % % Religious and moral beliefs 48 40 Do not believe in former religion/any religion 21 14 Biblical/Scriptural reason 2 4 Religious institutions, practices and people 36 20 Pedophilia scandal/Molestation 2 0 Personal spirituality 6 9 Life cycle changes 5 4 Family reasons 4 2 Other reasons 10 21 Don’t know/Refused 4 10

34 Source: Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S., April 2009, Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (2) Wealth and Religious Commitment

3.00

Africa Kuwait 2.50

North America

West Europe 2.00 East Europe

1.50 Mexico Latin America

East Europe U.S. Middle East

1.00 Israel Asia

Religious Commitment Score Commitment Religious Canada Africa 0.50

West Europe 0.00 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Per Capita GDP (Standardized)

This chart has been reprinted from “World Publics Welcome Global Trade – But Not Immigration,” Pew Global Attitudes Project, 2007. 35 Influence of Religion on Society % saying religion as a whole is … its influence on American life

Increasing Losing Same (vol.) DK % % % % U.S. general public 25 66 2 7 = 100

Unaffiliated 27 63 2 7 = 100 Atheist/Agnostic 34 59 2 5 = 100 Nothing in particular 24 65 2 8 = 100

Affiliated 24 67 2 6 = 100 Christian 24 68 2 6 = 100 Protestant 25 67 2 6 = 100 White evangelical 21 72 2 4 = 100 White mainline 20 73 2 6 = 100 Black Protestant 33 60 2 4 = 100 Catholic 21 70 3 6 = 100 White Catholic 18 75 2 5 = 100 Hispanic Catholic 27 60 5 8 = 100

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q42. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 36 Declining Share Say They “Never Doubt” the Existence of God

100% Agree that "I never doubt the existence of God." 90 88 80 80

20 18 10 Disagree 10

0 1987 1997 2007 2012

Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 1987-2012. 37 Religious Attendance of U.S. Adults, 2003-2012

50%

39 Weekly or more 40 37 34 33 Monthly/Yearly 30 29 Seldom/Never 25 20

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2003-2012. 38 Importance of Religion, 1992-2012

100

80 % who say religion is very important 70

60 60 61 60 61 58 59 58 58 59 59 58 59 59 58 57 57 56 56 50 54 54 55

0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

39 Source: Surveys conducted by Gallup, 1992-2012. Importance of Prayer, 1987-2012

Do you agree or disagree that prayer is an important part of your daily life?

90 Agree 80 80 81 78 78 78 78 79 78 78 70 76 77 76

40 Disagree 30 23 22 22 23 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 20

0 1987 1988 1990 1991 1994 1997 1999 2002 2003 2007 2009 2012

40 Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 1987-2012. (3)

Religious Disaffiliation by Demographic Groups

2007 2012 Change

% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % % U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3

White 15 20 +5 Black 13 15 +2 Hispanic 16 16 --

Married 14 14 -- Not married 20 24 +4

Living Divorced/ Married with partner Separated/Widowed Never married % % % % U.S. general public 51 7 19 23 = 100

Affiliated 54 6 20 20 = 100 Christian 54 6 21 19 = 100 Protestant 54 5 23 19 = 100 White evangelical 62 3 22 13 = 100 White mainline 58 6 22 14 = 100 Black Protestant 36 6 27 32 = 100 Catholic 54 8 18 20 = 100 White Catholic 58 6 19 16 = 100 Hispanic Catholic 49 10 17 25 = 100

Unaffiliated 39 11 16 34 = 100 Atheist/agnostic 36 11 12 40 = 100 Nothing in particular 40 11 17 32 = 100

Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January - July 2012. Results repercentaged to exclude nonresponse. White and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. 42 Current Marital Status, 1960-2010

Note: Based on adults ages 18 and older. Percents may not total 100% due to rounding. 43 Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Decennial Census (1960-2000) and American Community Survey data (2008, 2010), IPUMS. Median Age at First Marriage, 1960-2011

44 Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Trend in Party Identification: 1939-2012

Democrat

41 38 Republican 35 32

24 18

Independent

Source: 1929-1989 yearly averages from the Gallup Organization interactive website. 1990-2012 yearly totals from Times Mirror/Pew Research Center 45 aggregate files. Based on general public. Independent data not available for 1951-1956. Partisan Profile of Nonvoters

Likely Non- All adults voters voters

Party ID % % %

Republican 28 34 17

Democrat 33 35 29

Independent 33 27 44

Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted October 24-28, 2012. Nonvoters include all unregistered adults as well as registered voters who do not meet the criteria for 46 likely voters used in Pew Research Center polls. Rise and Decline of League Bowling

Source: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, 2000. 47 Confidence in Institutions, 1973-2011 % saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence

Note: Data not available for Congress in 1987. 48 Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 9-12, 2011. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,020 adults. Confidence in the Church/Organized Religion

% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence

Question wording: “Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?” 49 Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 7-10, 2012. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,004 adults. Other Organizations to Which Religiously Active Americans Belong

Those who are Those who aren’t active in religious active in such groups groups Sports or recreation leagues 35% 17% Charitable or volunteer organizations 34 15 Professional or trade associations 29 14 Political parties or organizations 22 10 Alumni associations 20 10 Performance arts groups 19 5 Literary, discussion, or study groups 18 6 Veterans organizations 11 4 Sports fantasy leagues 8 6 Farm organizations 7 2

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, 2011 The civic and community engagement of religiously active Americans, p. 14-15. 50

Importance of Shared Community

% saying belonging to a community of people who share your values and beliefs is…

Very important Somewhat important Not too/Not at all important

U.S. general public 49 34 16

Black Protestant 61 29 8

Hispanic Catholic 61 27 11

White evangelical 59 31 9

White Catholic 43 41 15

White mainline 40 43 16

Unaffiliated 28 40 31

Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q22 Those who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those 51 who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. [email protected]