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2009 Coastal Lagoons and Climate Change: Ecological and Social Ramifications in the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast Ecosystems Abigail Anthony University of Rhode Island

Joshua Atwood University of Rhode Island

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Citation/Publisher Attribution Anthony, A., J. Atwood, P. August, C. Byron, S. Cobb, C. Foster, C. Fry, A. Gold, K. Hagos, L. Heffner, D. Q. Kellogg, K. Lellis-Dibble, J. J. Opaluch, C. Oviatt, A. Pfeiffer-Herbert, N. Rohr, L. Smith, T. Smythe, J. Swift, and N. Vinhateiro. 2009. Coastal lagoons and climate change: ecological and social ramifications in U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coast ecosystems. Ecology and Society 14(1): 8. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/ Available at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Biological Sciences at DigitalCommons@URI. It has been accepted for inclusion in Biological Sciences Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@URI. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Authors Abigail Anthony, Joshua Atwood, Peter V. August, Carrie Byron, J. Stanley Cobb, Cheryl Foster, Crystal Fry, Arthur Gold, Kifle aH gos, Leanna Heffner, D. Q. Kellogg, Kimberly Lellis-Dibble, James J. Opaluch, Candace A. Oviatt, Anna Pfeiffer-Herbert, Nicole Rohr, Leslie Smith, Tiffany Smythe, Judith Swift, and Nathan Vinhateiro

This article is available at DigitalCommons@URI: https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/bio_facpubs/2 Copyright © 2009 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Anthony, A., J. Atwood, P. August, C. Byron, S. Cobb, C. Foster, C. Fry, A. Gold, K. Hagos, L. Heffner, D. Q. Kellogg, K. Lellis-Dibble, J. J. Opaluch, C. Oviatt, A. Pfeiffer-Herbert, N. Rohr, L. Smith, T. Smythe, J. Swift, and N. Vinhateiro. 2009. Coastal lagoons and climate change: ecological and social ramifications in U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coast ecosystems. Ecology and Society 14(1): 8. [online] URL: http: //www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/ Synthesis Coastal Lagoons and Climate Change: Ecological and Social Ramifications in U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast Ecosystems

Abigail Anthony 1, Joshua Atwood 1, Peter August 1, Carrie Byron 1, Stanley Cobb 1, Cheryl Foster 1, Crystal Fry 1, Arthur Gold 1, Kifle Hagos 1, Leanna Heffner 1, D. Q. Kellogg 1, Kimberly Lellis-Dibble 1, James J. Opaluch 1, Candace Oviatt 1, Anna Pfeiffer-Herbert 1, Nicole Rohr 1, Leslie Smith 1, Tiffany Smythe, Judith Swift 1, and Nathan Vinhateiro 1

ABSTRACT. Lagoons are highly productive coastal features that provide a range of natural services that society values. Their setting within the coastal landscape leaves them especially vulnerable to profound physical, ecological, and associated societal disturbance from global climate change. Expected shifts in physical and ecological characteristics range from changes in flushing regime, freshwater inputs, and water chemistry to complete inundation and loss and the concomitant loss of natural and human communities. Therefore, managing coastal lagoons in the context of global climate change is critical. Although management approaches will vary depending on local conditions and cultural norms, all management scenarios will need to be nimble and to make full use of the spectrum of values through which society views these unique ecosystems. We propose that this spectrum includes pragmatic, scholarly, aesthetic, and tacit categories of value. Pragmatic values such as fishery or tourism revenue are most easily quantified and are therefore more likely to be considered in management strategies. In contrast, tacit values such as a sense of place are more difficult to quantify and therefore more likely to be left out of explicit management justifications. However, tacit values are the most influential to stakeholder involvement because they both derive from and shape individual experiences and beliefs. Tacit values underpin all categories of social values that we describe and can be expected to have a strong influence over human behavior. The articulation and inclusion of the full spectrum of values, especially tacit values, will facilitate and support nimble adaptive management of coastal lagoon ecosystems in the context of global climate change.

Key Words: climate change; coastal lagoons; ecosystems; social values

INTRODUCTION Amazonian forests (Malhi et al. 2008), and city ecosystems (Grimm et al. 2008). We summarize the Coastal lagoons support a range of natural services key characteristics of lagoons in terms of their that are highly valued by society (Gönenç and physical and ecological properties. We review the Wolflin 2005), including fisheries productivity, social values of lagoons and offer a nomenclature storm protection, tourism, and others. We review to frame discussion about these values. Although how global climate change (GCC) will affect the there is considerable literature on the physical and physical structure, ecological characteristics, and ecological dimensions of lagoons, there is much less social values associated with lagoons, with special literature focused on their economic and social emphasis on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico values. Finally, we discuss how the physical, coasts. ecological, and social dimensions of lagoons are likely be impacted by GCC in the coming decades. This review follows similar ecosystem-specific Examples are presented from four geographically assessments of the impacts of climate change in and culturally distinct lagoon ecosystems to marine and coastal environments such as those of illustrate the range of possible impacts of GCC. tropical coral reefs (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007),

1University of Rhode Island Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Climate change is only one of many sources of vegetation slows currents, and on washover fans. disturbance to lagoon ecosystems, and these The process of sedimentation can eventually fill in disturbances occur concurrently at multiple lagoons (Nichols and Boon 1994). Lagoon barriers temporal and spatial scales. Whereas some climate are constantly eroded by waves and wind, requiring change stressors manifest slowly over decades and continuous sediment deposition to maintain them on regional and continental spatial scales, local, site- (Bird 1994). specific stressors can occur rapidly and cause significant impacts to lagoons. Land-use change, Water quantity and quality in a lagoon is influenced freshwater withdrawal from ground and surface by the rate at which the lagoon loses or gains water water sources, sedimentation, point and nonpoint from evaporation, precipitation, groundwater input, water pollution, shoreline hardening, and surface runoff, and exchange with the ocean (Allen overfishing are examples of anthropogenic stressors et al. 1981). Lagoon–ocean exchange is driven by that can have profound and sudden impacts on tides and wave action (Zimmerman 1981) and is coastal ecosystems (U.S. Environmental Protection often the largest component of lagoon water balance Agency 2007, Khan 2007, Rodriguez et al. 2007, (Smith 1994). Heat is also lost and gained through Bilkovic and Roggero 2008, Hollister et al. 2008a, exchange with the atmosphere, sediment, and ocean b,). Interactions among the host of local stressors (Smith 1994). and GCC can also be important, but interactions are complex and highly site specific (e.g., Lloret et al. The flushing rate, i.e., the rate at which water enters, 2008). It is a major challenge for coastal researchers circulates through, and exits the lagoon, is a and managers to understand the interactions among fundamental physical property and controls the these multiscale stressors (Vinebrooke et al. 2004). retention time of waterborne constituents. Lagoons These important issues are beyond the scope of our tend to have low flushing rates because of restricted review. Instead, we restricted our focus to examine exchange with the ocean, contributing to high long-term social and ecological effects of GCC- primary productivity and potentially high pollutant induced changes to lagoon ecosystems. concentrations (Spaulding 1994). Determinants of the flushing rate include the size and shape of the lagoon, the level of connectivity with the ocean, LAGOON ECOSYSTEMS tidal range, and freshwater flow (Phleger 1981). Physical characteristics of lagoons Ecological characteristics of lagoons A coastal lagoon is a “shallow coastal water body separated from the ocean by a barrier, connected at Coastal lagoons are highly productive ecosystems. least intermittently to the ocean by one or more They contribute to the overall productivity of restricted inlets” (Kjerfve 1994; Fig. 1). For our coastal waters by supporting a variety of habitats, purposes, we restricted our survey to lagoons including salt marshes, seagrasses, and mangroves. separated from the ocean by a depositional land They also provide essential habitat for many fish barrier, excluding coral reef lagoons. With a and shellfish species. For example, seagrass beds geographic range stretching from the arctic to the are a common feature of soft-substrate lagoons on tropics (Nichols and Boon 1994), coastal lagoons the Atlantic coast. Where seagrass beds occur, are typically found along low-lying coastlines that Zostera marina (eelgrass) is the most dominant have a tidal range of < 4 m (Martin and Dominguez species from Maine to the Carolinas, whereas 1994). Lagoons constitute 13% of coastal regions Thalassia testudinalinum (turtle grass) is the most globally, range in area from < 0.01 km² to > 10,000 dominant species south of the Carolinas (Bertness km², and are typically < 5 m deep (Bird 1994, 2007). Such beds play an important role in Kjerfve 1994). influencing the shape and stability of the shoreline, regulating dissolved oxygen (Nixon and Oviatt Coastal lagoons are formed and maintained through 1972), and filtering suspended matter (Bertness sediment transport processes. Sediment carried by 2007). They can enhance the biodiversity of a rivers, waves, currents, wind, and tides (Nichols and lagoon by providing a physical refuge from Boon 1994) accumulates in river and tidal deltas, predation and also serve as nursery and feeding on marshes and flats where submerged aquatic habitats for a variety of organisms (Heck and Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Fig. 1. Idealized coastal lagoon showing important landforms and characteristics.

Thoman 1984, Harris et al. 2004). On the Atlantic water and groundwater flows and through exchange coast, salt marshes are one of the most prevalent with the ocean. Because nutrient availability often habitats in lagoons (Bertness 2007) and are one of limits primary productivity, coastal lagoons can the most productive natural vascular plant foster high rates of primary production, thereby communities in the world (Whittaker 1975). supporting high rates of secondary production compared to other aquatic ecosystems (Nixon 1982, Because of their relatively low flushing rates, 1995). However, primary production that exceeds coastal lagoons are favorable habitats for primary the demands of consumers can lead to producers (phytoplankton and aquatic plants). eutrophication (Valiela et al. 1992). Eutrophication Nutrients are transported to lagoons from surface is characterized by excessive phytoplankton and Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

macroalgal blooms and subsequent hypoxia, Scholarly values are embodied in activities that seek reduced light penetration (McGlathery 2001, to extend our knowledge about lagoon systems and Anderson et al. 2002), stress and die-offs of marine include scientific inquiry and historical study. organisms, loss of seagrass beds, changes in food Scholarly manifestations often contribute to web interactions and community structure, and loss pragmatic values. For example, a better of biodiversity (National Research Council 2000). understanding of lagoons can improve management, potentially increasing commercial fisheries’ catch and tourism revenues. Society also values Social value characteristics of lagoons knowledge for its own sake (Hume 1999). Thus, basic research on ecological, historical, or Lagoons and their associated ecosystems are highly geological dimensions of lagoon systems provides valued by society. However, the concept of value scholarly value. has different meanings in different disciplines. Among philosophers, there is debate over whether Inspirational values are ascribed to creatively natural systems possess an intrinsic value of their productive activities that include photography and own that lies outside human determination (Taylor landscape painting, as well as settings for films, 1986, Rolston 1994, Williams 1994). These are literature, songs, and other artistic expressions. complex philosophical issues that cannot be These artistic creations encompass both personal resolved here; we therefore focus only on aesthetic response to natural systems (tacit values) manifestations of social values of lagoons. and profit from the sale of resulting artworks (pragmatic value). Because manifestations of social values differ greatly, we organize them into four general Tacit values (Naukkarinen 1998) refer generally to categories: pragmatic, scholarly, inspirational, and unspoken values and include the enjoyment of tacit (Fig. 2). We use the term “social values” to scenery, the sounds of waves and shorebirds, and represent a synthesis of these categories. The other sensory landscape features. Tacit values also placement of a manifestation of value within one encompass less tangible perceptions such as having category does not preclude its effect on or migration a sense of place. In addition, society may ascribe into another category. For example, although the economic existence value (e.g., Krutilla 1967) to an economic engine of tourism might manifest itself ecosystem irrespective of whether society uses it in as a pragmatic form of social value, the appeal of a any manner (Fig. 3). tourist destination depends on its power to attract individuals, which in turn depends upon Some manifestations of value are more easily inspirational and tacit manifestations of social value quantified than others (National Research Council such as dramatic scenery, pleasant swimming 2005), increasing the chance of their being beaches, or shops selling mementos that capture the considered and weighted more heavily in coastal highlights of the tourist experience. Thus, the management. Tacit values present the biggest spectrum of four categories is intended to be a challenge to quantification because they are implicit practical device for discussing specific manifestations and difficult to articulate and therefore are often of social value in relation to coastal lagoons. missing from data sets or surveys. However, they frequently manifest themselves indirectly through Pragmatic values are the most tangible market transactions or other economic indicators. manifestations of value and are commonly referred Small seaside cottages on stilts, for example, sit to as “use” values in the policy, management, and alongside lagoons or barrier islands and command economic literature (Cicin-Sain and Knecht 1998). million dollar price tags. Such prices reflect the These values reflect the commercial, recreational, powerful effect of tacit values on coastal waterfront and tourism uses of lagoons. Pragmatic values also property. The strength of tacit values is clearly include ecosystem services that indirectly support evident when people choose to live in areas of high human uses. For example, salt marshes provide environmental risk such as low-lying coastal nursery habitat for juvenile fish that support landscapes to benefit from aesthetic amenities or the commercial fisheries and also protect developed cultural sense of place that these landscapes provide shorelines by reducing the impact of severe storms. (Couzin 2008). Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Fig. 2. Social values for lagoons and other natural systems. Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Fig. 3. Tacit values capture a sense of place. Point Judith Pond, Rhode Island, USA.

Inspirational values often yield a quantifiable this array of tools, the central challenge remains for product with high market value such as a painting, coastal managers to incorporate the full spectrum book, or film, or a popular cultural festival. Each of values, even those that are difficult to quantify. example begins with inspirational value, but the end result can be estimated through pragmatic and scholarly means (such as tourism or cinematic criticism), thereby demonstrating the migration of CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON inspirational values into the scholarly and LAGOON ECOSYSTEMS pragmatic. Sea level, temperature, precipitation, and Social scientists have developed both qualitative storminess are expected to change significantly with and quantitative tools for incorporating all GCC and to impact coastal lagoons directly (Table categories of value into management actions. For 2). Indirect impacts such as ocean acidification are example, one qualitative approach developed by important, but there is great uncertainty regarding social scientists is the charrette, which includes potential effects on coastal and marine ecosystems unstructured discussions in public meetings (Berke (Royal Society 2005); we therefore focus on direct et al. 2006). Quantitative means of measuring value, impacts in our review. Although both precipitation by contrast, include the revealed preference and storminess can be severe during certain weather approaches developed by economists (Freeman events (e.g., hurricanes, nor’easters), we treat them 2003). Although it is beyond the scope of our review as separate aspects of climate because they to discuss these and other methods in detail, we influence lagoons in different ways. Here, we briefly summarize some methods in Table 1, with summarize the current state of knowledge regarding additional details provided in Appendix 1. Despite these climate change variables and describe how Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Table 1. Standard methods of quantifying values. See Appendix 1 for additional information.

Method Description Discipline

Visual preference survey, Measures tacit manifestations of aesthetic values such as Community planning, visualization, visual impact individual preferences for landscapes, architecture, or other landscape architecture assessment features. Provides assessments that are primarily qualitative in nature. Charrette Elicits stakeholder input on a planning process or design using Policy, planning intensive meetings. Incorporates all categories of value into policy without providing explicit value measures. Is primarily qualitative.

Revealed preference tools Infers people’s values from actual choices made, typically in a Economics market context. Examples include hedonic pricing and travel cost methods. Provides quantitative assessments of value, typically in dollar terms. Stated preference survey Infers tacit manifestations of value through people’s responses to Economics hypothetical survey questions. Examples include contingent valuation and contingent choice. Provides primarily quantitative assessments of value, often in dollar terms. Interview techniques Ranges from informal discussion to structured surveys. Elicits Sociology, psychology, values through people’s responses. Provides quantitative or economics, decision qualitative results, sometimes in dollar terms. science Social/civic valuation Measures values that groups place on amenities, either through Policy, planning actual decisions made or through hypothetical questions posed to groups. Examples include results of public referendum and focus groups. Provides qualitative or quantitative results, sometimes in dollar terms.

they will likely affect the physical structure, at 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr (Church and White 2006). ecological properties, and social values associated Satellite observations, however, show that since with lagoons. 1993, the sea level has been increasing at a rate of approximately 3 mm/yr, which is significantly higher than the average over the previous half- century (Cazenave and Nerem 2004). Global sea Sea level level increase in the 20th century measured approximately 170 mm (Bindoff et al. 2007) and is The magnitude, rate, and effects of relative sea level expected to increase exponentially in the 21st increase will vary regionally because of differences century as air temperatures continue to increase in subsidence (resulting from sediment loading, (Rahmstorf 2007). By 2050, the sea level is expected groundwater withdrawal, or oil extraction), tectonic to have risen approximately 60–330 mm (Union of uplift, isostatic rebound, and the compaction of Concerned Scientists 2006), and by 2100, is muddy soils. Reconstructed sea level increase expected to have risen by 50–1400 mm above the estimates using tidal gauge data from 1870 to 2004 1990 level (Rahmstorf 2007), with the potential to indicate that the historical average (± 95% increase > 5000 mm within the next millennium confidence limits) rate of sea level increase was 1.7 (Overpeck et al. 2006). ± 0.3 mm/yr, with significant acceleration measured Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Table 2. Direct effects of projected global climate change factors on processes and physical properties of coastal lagoons.

Climate change factor

Processes and Sea level Air and open ocean Precipitation Storms physical properties temperatures

Processes Barrier-lagoon Erosion and shoreward Rapid sediment migration migration of barrier redistribution4,5,6 islands1,2,3

Flushing rate Increased flushing due Variability in freshwater Increased flushing due to barrier breaching7,8 input increases to barrier breaching6,11,12 variability in flushing9,10 Sedimentation Sediment flux inversely Increased sediment related to transport4,15 precipitation15,17,18 Physical properties Lagoon water Temperature temperature increase amplified in shallow systems13,14 Salinity Change in salinity Salinity inversely related Higher salinity due to through inundation7,15,16 to freshwater input11,17,18 increased breaching and wash-over events6,15,19 Nutrients Higher nutrient input through overall increased terrestrial runoff20,21 Light penetration Increased suspended solids during freshwater runoff events18,22 Oxygen Decreased oxygen Lower dissolved oxygen solubility with with increased increased stratification18,20 temperature23,24

1: Brunn 1962, 2: Titus 1990, 3: Pilkey and Cooper 2004, 4: Boothroyd et al. 1985, 5: Fenster and Dolan 1993, 6: Morton and Sallenger 2003, 7: Bird 1993, 8: Oliveira et al. 2006, 9: Paerl et al. 2006, 10: Trenberth et al. 2007, 11: Kjerfve and Magill 1989, 12: Fritz et al. 2007, 13: Harley et al. 2006, 14: Nixon et al. 2004, 15: Scavia et al. 2002, 16: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 17: Michener et al. 1997, 18: Najjar et al. 2000, 19: Chabreck and Palmisano 1973, 20: Justic et al. 1996, 21: Rogers and McCarty 2000, 22: Steward et al. 2006, 23: Pilson 1998, 24: Bopp et al. 2002. Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Accelerated sea level increase is a particular threat Climate Change 2007) and is likely to continue to to low-lying, shallow-gradient coastal ecosystems. increase through the next century. Because air Most barrier-lagoon systems respond naturally to temperatures increase more quickly over land than sea level increase by migrating landward along over oceans, coastal water temperatures are also undeveloped shorelines with gentle slopes (Hayes likely to increase more rapidly (Harley et al. 2006). 2005); the retreating shore face profile can remain For example, in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island essentially unchanged as the shoreline retreats (median depth 6.4 m; Boothroyd and August 2008), landward and upward in response to moderate sea the annual average surface water temperature has level increases (Bruun 1962). However, with increased by 1.1 °C in the past 50 yr (Nixon et al. accelerated sea level increase, landward retreat of 2003). This rate of increase is approximately four barriers may not be rapid enough to prevent times greater than that of the ocean. Although we inundation (Zhang et al. 2004). Hardened shorelines are not aware of published, long-term data for water on developed coastlines impede this natural temperature in coastal lagoons, the shallow nature migration and increase the vulnerability of coastal and low flushing rates of coastal lagoons indicate structures to inundation and storm damage (Titus that water temperatures in lagoons will increase 1998). even more rapidly than water temperatures in open estuaries. As lagoon barriers retreat landward, accelerated sea level increase will lead to steeper and narrower Water temperature in turn influences dissolved barrier profiles, shortening the length of existing oxygen concentrations, as well as the physiology of inlets (Bird 1994) and increasing the rate of lagoon organisms, species’ ranges, and patterns of exchange with the ocean. This will likely increase migration (Woodward 1987, Turner 2003). Many the barriers’ vulnerability to breaching and the marine species live near their threshold of thermal lagoons’ flushing rates (Zimmerman 1981). As tolerance (Tomanek and Somero 1999), at which lagoons are inundated by seawater, salinity will even small changes in temperature can have large increase, possibly altering the species composition impacts on their viability. In addition, these (Bird 1993, Mackenzie et al. 2007). If a lagoon ecosystems are more susceptible to increases in the barrier persists, a sea level increase will also reduce colonization of invasive species that may thrive in light penetration to submerged aquatic vegetation, warmer waters (Stachowicz et al. 2002). As lagoon reducing the photosynthetic potential of these temperatures increase, dissolved oxygen concentrations primary producers and changing the nutrient are likely to decrease (Bopp et al. 2002, Joos et al. dynamics such that lagoons may be more 2003), especially as seasonal stratification of the susceptible to eutrophication (Lloret et al. 2008). water column isolates oxygen-depleted deeper waters from oxygen-rich surface waters (Bopp et al. 2002, Joos et al. 2003). Reduced dissolved oxygen Temperature adversely affects aerobic biota, with benthic communities expected to be the most severely In the last 100 yr, global air temperature has stressed. In lagoons with high flushing rates, the increased by 0.76 °C and is expected to increase by influx of ocean water will interrupt stratification, an additional 1.1–6.4 °C by 2100 (Intergovernmental causing the water column to mix. In restricted Panel on Climate Change 2007). Temperature lagoons with low flushing rates and high nutrient increases will vary regionally and will be modulated inputs, temperature increases will increase the by natural climate variation (e.g., Smith et al. 2007, probability and severity of hypoxic events Keenlyside et al. 2008). The greatest warming is (D’Avanzo and Kremer 1994). Chronic hypoxia in expected to occur at high latitudes in winter coastal waters has been linked to long-term changes (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, in benthic community structure characterized by a Serreze et al. 2007). persistent shift in species composition to more hypoxia-tolerant species and an overall decrease in Changes in air temperature strongly influence the species diversity (Conley et al. 2007). water temperature of slow-moving, shallow water bodies such as coastal lagoons (Turner 2003). The The timing (phenology) of lagoon processes will temperature of the world’s oceans has increased, on also be affected by temperature increases. For average, by 0.3 °C (Intergovernmental Panel on example, changes in air temperature have affected Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

the timing and route of migrating birds that Increased freshwater inputs can also contribute to traditionally stop over at coastal lagoons (Gatter the stratification of deeper lagoons (Justic et al. 1992). Developmental and reproductive timing in 1996), increasing the risk of hypoxia in bottom shellfish as evidenced by early gonad maturation waters (Bopp et al. 2002, Joos et al. 2003). The and spawning in bay scallops is associated with expected increase in the variability and intensity of higher water temperatures (Sastry 1963). Changes precipitation events is therefore expected to produce in plankton phenology have also been observed, increased variability, both spatially and temporally, with zooplankton becoming active earlier in the year in salinity and dissolved oxygen concentrations in following relatively warm winters (Edwards and coastal lagoons. Richardson 2004). Increased grazing of phytoplankton by zooplankton has been observed and may partially Other effects of increased surface water inputs explain declines in phytoplankton abundance include the increased delivery of sediment and associated with warmer temperatures (Oviatt 2004). nutrients to lagoons (Orpin et al. 1999). Increased Warmer temperatures are also thought to contribute nutrient inputs may accelerate the eutrophication of to observed declines in seagrass abundance (Blintz lagoons, especially those with low flushing rates et al. 2003). (McComb 1995, Wazniak et al. 2007). As with sea level increases, increased turbidity will reduce light penetration and the photosynthetic activity of Precipitation submerged aquatic vegetation, compounding the risk of eutrophication as nutrient dynamics are There is general agreement that there will be further altered (Lloret et al. 2008). In addition, changes in precipitation intensity, timing, volume, reduced light penetration can inhibit the feeding and form (snow or rain) because of GCC (Meehl et ability of visual predators (Howick and O’Brien al. 2007). Estimates of the magnitude and timing of 1983, Fiksen et al. 2002, Horppila et al. 2004). changes in precipitation patterns along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts are variable, reflecting the high level of uncertainty associated with these Storms predictions (Graham et al. 2007). Although predictions agree that there will be an increase in Storms affect lagoons through overwash events and extreme rainfall events and drought–flood cycles by erosion from wind and waves. There is (Scavia et al. 2002, Committee on Environment and disagreement among predictions concerning the Natural Resources 2008), disagreement persists extent and magnitude of changes in storminess with regarding the direction of expected changes in other GCC. Evidence of an increase in intense tropical components of the water cycle such as stream flow cyclone activity in the North Atlantic over the past (timing and volume), evapotranspiration, soil 40 yr (Meehl et al. 2007, Trenberth et al. 2007) moisture, and groundwater storage resulting from supports predictions that the frequency (Holland complex interactions between and among factors and Webster 2007, Mann et al. 2007) and intensity such as air temperature and seasonal timing of (Emanuel 2005, Webster et al. 2005) of extreme precipitation events. weather events have been increasing and will continue to increase with warmer global Regional changes in precipitation patterns can have temperatures. However, these predictions have been important effects on the physical and ecological challenged by suggestions that the apparent trend in characteristics of coastal lagoons through the increasing storm frequency is an artifact of alteration of freshwater inputs and associated improved monitoring (Landsea 2007) and by changes in salinity and dissolved oxygen predictions that increased vertical wind shear could concentrations (Milly et al. 2005). Intense dampen the effects of increasing hurricane intensity precipitation events would increase short-term (Vecchi and Soden 2007). Meehl et al. (2007) freshwater inputs (Paerl et al. 2006) while locally suggest that a warmer climate will increase the decreasing salinity (Michener et al. 1997). overall intensity of tropical cyclones and, whereas Conversely, lower precipitation would reduce the number of storms is expected to decrease freshwater inputs and potentially result in higher globally by the end of the 21st century, the number salinity (Valiela 1995). Salinity would also be of storms in the North Atlantic could increase by as affected by changes in flushing rate, which may much as 34% during this period (Oouchi et al. 2006). counteract the changes in freshwater inputs. Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

The consequences of sea level increase become were selected to cover a broad geographic range and acute during storm events because sea level increase include systems with distinct human development and storms interact to erode barriers and produce patterns and a variety of social values. high storm surges, rapidly redistributing barrier sediment (Fenster and Dolan 1993). During periods of high storm surge, water moves rapidly over the barrier in a process called overwash, which delivers Gulf Coast of Louisiana sediment eroded from the front of the barrier onto the back barrier flat and into the lagoon (Wilby et Coastal Louisiana is a vast rural complex of lagoons, al. 1939, Leatherman 1981). Increased storm bayous, canals, channels, and small embayments intensity will likely cause more frequent breaches that are particularly vulnerable to sea level increase of barrier islands (Morton and Sallenger 2003), (Burkett et al. 2003). These coastal lands are which in turn will increase the rate of exchange with disappearing at a rate of up to 100 km²/yr because the ocean and consequently the flushing rate and of the combined effects of sea level increase, salinity of lagoons (Bird 1994, Smith 1994). hurricanes, subsidence, and erosion (United States Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center, LaCoast: http://www.lacoast.gov). Without CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SOCIAL abatement, an additional 3200 km² of wetlands are VALUES OF LAGOONS predicted to be inundated by 2040, advancing the Louisiana shoreline inland by as much as 53 km in The combined effects of increased temperature, sea some areas. These losses are caused in part by level, and storminess and the variability in weather human actions in response to flooding threats, patterns will likely stress human communities that including increased channelization of the value the presence of particular lagoons. Lagoons Mississippi River with levees, which has controlled are valued for many reasons: as ecosystems that flooding, but has also cut off sediment supply to support an abundance of species on which delta wetlands and has diverted sediments to deep livelihoods depend (pragmatic), as sites of historical waters off the continental shelf. This has tradition (scholarly), as incentive for creative exacerbated the effects of sea level increase with pursuits (inspirational), and as a source of a sense significant negative impacts on barrier islands and of place (tacit). wetlands (Dean 2006). When faced with GCC stressors, society may take Coastal Louisiana’s lagoons and wetlands are actions to reduce impacts. However, these actions spawning, nursery, and fishing grounds for many may also have unintended consequences, creating a important fisheries. For example, shrimp landings feedback cycle that can have long-term negative in Louisiana constitute roughly 30% of the ex-vessel consequences. For example, people have value of the national shrimp catch (National Marine historically reacted to coastal erosion by hardening Fisheries Service annual commercial landing shorelines with sea walls or riprap. Hardened statistics: http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st1/commercial/ shorelines may protect coastal structures in the short landings/annual_landings.html). Sea level increase term, but they can exacerbate erosion elsewhere by will intensify the loss of critical salt marsh habitat reducing sources of sand to replenish shorelines (Mendelssohn and McKee 1988, Wilsey et al. 1992, downcoast. Ogburn and Alber 2006). Flooding from sea level increase will increase salinity and may stress To explore how particular social structures and juvenile shrimp that mature in low-salinity estuarine physical and ecological characteristics are likely to waters (Gunter 1961). The shrimp fishery has be impacted by GCC in the coming decades, we significant pragmatic value in this region and is also examined four specific lagoon systems on the a unique way of life that embodies inspirational and Atlantic and Gulf coasts: the Gulf Coast of tacit values. Louisiana, the salt ponds of Rhode Island, the Outer Banks and Lowcountry of the Carolinas, and Louisiana’s Barataria Bay (Fig. 4) sustains rich Jamaica Bay, New York (Fig. 4). Table 3 provides biodiversity by providing not only important habitat a brief summary of the socio-geographic settings of for waterfowl, shrimp, and finfish, but also serving the four lagoon systems, as well as key GCC factors as homeland to several cultures, creating a unique and some likely ecosystem impacts. These lagoons sociological phenomenon in which highly diverse Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Fig. 4. Locations of the four lagoons used in the case studies of ecological and social values. Photograph inserts used with permission.

communities (Houma, Cajun, Creole, African- in artworks such as those of Colette Pope Heldner American, Vietnamese, and Canary Island (Fig. 5A) and John James Audubon or the writings Spaniards) share a single ecosystem (Gomez 1998, of James Lee Burke. Tidwell 2003, Gramling and Hagelman 2005). These cultures share a high degree of poverty or economic uncertainty, leaving them more vulnerable to the effects of GCC (Rosenzweig et al. Salt ponds of Rhode Island 2007). The string of lagoons along the south shore of Rhode Moreover, the inundation of Louisiana’s coastal Island are known locally as salt ponds and figure lagoons increases the vulnerability of New Orleans prominently in a complex landscape of highly to flooding, risking the loss of one of the world’s developed residential areas, commercial waterfronts, iconic cities and the living culture that produced agricultural areas, and uninhabited protected jazz, one of America’s indigenous art forms refuges (Fig. 3). These lagoons have historically (Gushee 1994). With the loss of these coastal played an important role in Native American lagoons, a powerful experience of place is also lost, culture, and contemporary human uses include existing only in nostalgic representations preserved commercial and recreational fishing, boating, Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Table 3. Direct connections between social, global climate change (GCC), and ecological impacts in four coastal lagoons.

Lagoon system

Characteristic Barataria Bay Rhode Island salt ponds Carolina Outer Banks Jamaica Bay and Lowcounty

Geography/ Barataria Bay lagoon A “string of pearls” of A strand of islands and A lagoon located within social systems: these largely shallow coastal salt barrier beaches rich in Gateway National Park in rural settings are replete ponds representing a history from the the outer boroughs of with small settlements range of lagoon settings: traditionally accepted New York City populated by marsh tourism sprawl, exurban, founding of the first (specifically, Brooklyn dwellers who live as part and nature refuges2 colony in America to the and Queens), directly of the landscape1 influence of the slave adjacent to John F. trade and the Civil War. Kennedy International These barrier islands Airport. The park attracts also have a history of 6 million visitors each extreme vulnerability to year4 hurricanes3 Anticipated Air temperature: Air temperature: Precipitation: High flow Storms: More frequent GCC impacts Predicted to increase by Predicted to increase by to estuaries with large storm surges and greater 1.1–2.2ºC by 21005 1.9–6.9ºC by 21006 watersheds are most wave action Precipitation: Increase of Sea level: Accelerated common7 superimposed on sea 10% in summer and increase13 will increase Sea level: The relative level increase will fall11 leads to 1–3 parts erosion of barrier increase is between 3 exacerbate marsh per trillion decrease in beaches, landward and 4 mm/yr15,16,17,18 erosion8,9,10 salinity12 migration of barriers,14 Storms: Vulnerable to Sea level: Rate of and extensive loss of tropical storms and increase is faster than coastal wetlands13 hurricanes, which marsh accretion rates19 Storms: High degree of accelerate inlet Storms: Vulnerable to shoreline change due to formation, wash-over tropical storms and the narrow and low fans, and hurricanes, which cause profile of barrier inundation15,22,23,24,25 devastation of marsh beaches13 grasses, wash-over fans, and erosion from shallow areas20, 21 Ecological Increased salinity from Temperature stress and Migratory birds that Without adequate impacts sea level increase will increased water depth depend on barrier sediment supply and with (examples) result in the loss of and salinity from sea beaches will experience increased erosion, nursery and mating level increase will affect the loss of habitat.30 Low populations of horseshoe habitat, affecting seagrass habitats.29 oxygen conditions crabs will be affected by juvenile penaeid shrimp Shifts in species, species resulting from increased the loss of suitable and blue crabs, both of distribution, and eutrophication will have shoreline for breeding which are commercially abundance of seagrasses negative impacts on habitat.31 Decreases in important.26,27 may occur, affecting vulnerable species such food supply from Conversely, the local species that are as striped bass30 decreases in horseshoe increased marsh dependent on seagrass crab eggs and in salt subsidence will benefit habitat such as juvenile marsh habitat will shrimp by increasing the flounder29 negatively affect amount of time the migrating shorebirds31,32 marsh surface is available28

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1: Gramling and Hagelman 2004, 2: Lee 1980, 3: Bailey 1999, 4: Hoffmann 2006, 5: Ning and Abdollahi 2003, 6: Frumhoff et al. 2007, 7: Dame et al. 2000, 8: Gornitz et al. 2002, 9: Hartig et al. 2002, 10: Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 11: Turner 2003, 12: Swenson 2003, 13: Donnelly and Bertness 2001, 14: Boothroyd et al. 1985, 15: Dame et al. 2000, 16: Leatherman et al. 2000, 17: Simas et al. 2001, 18: Titus and Richman 2001, 19: Hatton et al. 1983, 20: Rodney 1970, 21: Day et al. 2007, 22: Fenster and Dolan 1994, 23: Zhang et al. 2004, 24: Paerl et al. 2005, 25: Greening et al. 2006, 26: Darnell 1959; 27: Gunter 1961, 28: Rozas and Reed 1993, 29: Short and Neckles 1999, 30: Najjar et al. 2000, 31: Botton et al. 2006, 32: Brown et al. 2001.

birding, surfing, and photography (Fig. 4). Local (Spartina by John Casey 1989), as well as birding communities depend upon the fishing industry, and and the seasonal pilgrimage of tourists to beaches these lagoons provide habitat for a variety of along barriers. commercially important shellfish and finfish. Rhode Island’s salt ponds are currently under heavy Outer Banks and Lowcountry of the Carolinas pressure from residential development. Past construction of stabilized breachways dramatically The Carolina Outer Banks are barrier spits that altered the salinity in many of these lagoons, shifting separate a large estuarine system, including Pamlico the lagoon community from brackish species Sound, the largest Atlantic coastal lagoon, from the (alewives, smelt, oysters) to species that thrive in Atlantic Ocean (Bailey 1999; Fig. 4). The Carolina more saline conditions (e.g., quahogs, winter Lowcountry consists of a series of lagoons and flounder; Lee 1980) and are viewed as waterways that extend along the South Carolina pragmatically valuable to local communities. Sea coast. Both systems provide habitat for migratory level increase will likely increase the lagoons’ birds, halophilic grasses, finfish, and shellfish salinity through breaching of barriers, promoting (Frankenberg 1997). The Outer Banks and another shift in species composition. Temperature Lowcountry are a transitional cultural setting in increases and reduced water clarity will be which the wealthy compete for coastal land with detrimental to eelgrass beds and will impede poorer communities of longstanding historical restoration efforts to increase the areal extent of importance. Islands off the South Carolina coast these submerged aquatic vegetation habitats (Short have been home to generations of African and Neckles 1999). Storminess and sea level Americans in a unique sea-island culture known as increase are of particular concern because hard- the Gullah in South Carolina and Geechee in edged coastal development (i.e., permanent Georgia. Gullah-populated islands, including structures) restricts the migration of barrier and Edisto Island, Coosaw Island, St. Helena Island, and headland shorelines (Lee 1980). Pragmatic values Daufuskie Island, served as the inspiration for the will be impacted through property loss (Donnelly fictional Yamacraw Island in Pat Conroy’s (1972) and Bertness 2001) as shorelines continue to shift The Water is Wide. The Gullah culture inspired Julia because of sea level increase and increased storm Peterkin’s (1928) Pulitzer Prize winning novel intensity. Impacts are compounded because real Scarlet Sister Mary and the paintings of John W. estate on lagoons is some of the most expensive Jones (Fig. 5B). These works exemplify scholarly property in these coastal communities. The means and inspirational values (Halfacre et al. 2007). for the continued survival of the salt ponds is limited by attempts to protect structures through the Sea level increase threatens the low-elevation hardening of lagoon shorelines, yet another example barriers in this region and will change the hydrology of feedback between social and ecological systems. and salinity of the lagoons. The catchment area The potential loss of Rhode Island’s salt ponds also draining into this lagoon system is relatively large threatens the sense of place that inspires significant compared to the area of the lagoons (Dame et al. artistic enterprise, e.g., landscape painting (John 2000), intensifying the effect of increased Lutes), cartooning (Don Bosquet), and literature precipitation. Nutrients carried with higher Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

Fig. 5. Art as a manifestation of the inspirational values of coastal lagoons. (A) Swamp Idyl-Louisiana Bayou Country. Artist: Colette Pope Heldner (used with permission). (B) Gullah Fisherman. Artist: John W. Jones, Lowcountry, South Carolina (used with permission). Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

freshwater flows increase the likelihood of (Hartig et al. 2002). Although activities such as eutrophication (Rogers and McCarty 2000), channel dredging and heavy boat traffic have likely affecting not only pragmatic values associated with contributed to short-term marsh loss, encroaching fisheries and real estate, but also inspirational and sea level increase and increased storminess present tacit values. These coastal lagoons, including long-term hazards to Jamaica Bay’s lagoon system traditional Gullah lands, are threatened by (Gornitz et al. 2002). As GCC impacts unfold, urban residential and commercial development, which residents could lose the tacit benefits of this will in turn be threatened by inundation from contrasting land and lagoonscape and the calming hurricanes and sea level increase. Residents of low effects of ambient natural sights, sounds, and socioeconomic status may not have the capacity to textures (Foster 1998). evacuate flood-prone areas during extreme storm events, as was the case with many New Orleans communities during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 CONCLUSIONS (Chakraborty et al. 2005, Lie 2006). Under current climate change projections, the delicate balance GCC-induced physical and ecological changes to between local cultural groups and their lagoon coastal lagoons will force both natural and human landscapes will be severely disrupted, with the communities to adapt. Natural communities may potential for permanent displacement of a singular respond in a variety of ways: shifts in community indigenous culture and language unique to the composition and diversity, susceptibility to Gullah (Jarrett and Lucas 2002). A GCC-induced eutrophication and disease, and localized loss of diaspora will diminish the related scholarly, some native species. However, the ability of natural inspirational, and tacit values of these lagoons. In communities to adapt successfully to changing addition, pragmatic and scholarly values are at risk conditions will be influenced by human actions. For from erosion, sea level increase, hurricanes, and example, proactive protection of undeveloped land storm surge that threaten significant archaeological surrounding coastal lagoons gives natural sites and other historic landmarks such as the Cape communities a better chance for survival through Hatteras lighthouse (Watts 1975, Babits 2002). habitat migration, whereas continued shoreline Contrary to the traditional strategy of responding to development impedes ecosystem adaptation by coastal erosion by hardening shorelines, protection limiting salt marsh migration. The former of the Cape Hatteras lighthouse was achieved acknowledges and attempts to sustain the complex through relocation in 1999 (National Research interaction between human and natural systems, Council 1988, North Carolina State University whereas the latter leaves society vulnerable to the 1997). loss of the full spectrum of values associated with lagoon ecosystems. Jamaica Bay, New York Human communities will necessarily respond to immediate threats and may also plan for anticipated Jamaica Bay is a coastal lagoon located in one of impacts. In the face of these potential impacts, the the most densely developed urban settings in the effective management of coastal lagoons requires United States (Fig. 4) and represents the largest an understanding of the social, physical, and natural open space in New York City. As part of the ecological processes that collectively influence how Gateway National Recreation Area (U.S. National lagoons are affected by GCC. Social values such as Park Service), Jamaica Bay hosts > 6 million visitors the desire to preserve a seaside community and its annually (Hoffman 2006) and provides habitat for associated way of life may drive responses that > 300 species of migratory and resident birds produce feedback in lagoon ecosystems. This (Brown et al. 2001), as well as spawning grounds feedback may be counterproductive for both natural for horseshoe crabs (Botton et al. 2006). The lagoon and human communities. Attention to the full provides urban residents direct access to a relatively spectrum of social values is more likely to prompt undeveloped natural world and is a living classroom the consideration of the widest range of for schoolchildren involved in National Park ramifications of any course of action or inaction. Service sponsored curricula that link classroom science activities with natural ecosystems. However, management strategies, even those that are ecosystem based, currently do not incorporate The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay that provide prime quantification of the full spectrum of social values. habitat have been receding at an accelerating pace Because pragmatic values are the easiest to quantify Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

and appear to be more absolute and persuasive than LITERATURE CITED other values, they are weighed most heavily in management decisions. By contrast, tacit values are Adamowicz, W. L., P. Boxall, M. Williams, and much more difficult to quantify and are often J. Louviere. 1998. Stated preference approaches for overlooked in coastal management decisions. measuring passive use values: choice experiments Ironically, tacit values are the most influential to and contingent valuation. American Journal of stakeholders because they both derive from and Agricultural Economics 80:64-75. shape individual experiences and beliefs. They also underpin the full spectrum of social values and can Allen, G., E. Mandelli, and J. P. F. Zimmermann. be expected to have strong influence over human 1981. Physics, geology, chemistry. Pages 29-50 in behavior. Furthermore, the consideration of tacit P. Lasserre and H. Postma, editors. Coastal lagoon values promotes civic engagement in coastal research, present and future: proceedings of a management decision making because these values seminar. UNESCO Technical Papers in Marine intersect with the interests and needs of all Science 32. United Nations Educational, Scientific, concerned, regardless of their social, political, or and Cultural Organization, Paris, France. economic influence (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Anderson, D. M., P. M. Gilbert, and J. M. Burkholder. 2002. Harmful algal blooms and Tools that articulate and quantify tacit values are eutrophication: nutrient sources, composition, and needed to provide a more balanced data set to coastal consequences. Estuaries and Coasts 25(4):704-746. managers. The development and interpretation of such tools is dependent upon an interdisciplinary Babits, L. E. 2002. Maritime archaeology in North approach that incorporates knowledge both in and Carolina. Pages 119-126 in C. V. Ruppé and J. beyond the science community (Leslie and McLeod Barstad, editors. International handbook of 2007). Fragile coastal lagoons and the societies that underwater archaeology. Kluwer Academic/ depend on them present particularly complex Plenum, New York, New York, USA. challenges because they are on the frontline facing the most immediate effects of climate change. An Bailey, A. 1999. The Outer Banks. University of appeal to tacit values, which are fundamental to the North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, human experience, may better engage society as USA. managers strive to develop and implement mitigation or adaptation strategies. Berke, P. R., D. R. Godschalk, E. J. Kaiser, and D. A. Rodriguez. 2006. Urban land use planning. Fifth edition. University of Illinois Press, Urbana, Responses to this article can be read online at: Illinois, USA. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/responses/ Bertness, M. D. 2007. Atlantic shorelines: natural history and ecology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA. Acknowledgments: Bilkovic, D. M., and M. M. Roggero. 2008. Effects This research was sponsored by NSF IGERT grant of coastal development on nearshore estuarine # 0504103 to the University of Rhode Island Coastal nekton communities. Marine Ecology Progress Institute. We are grateful to John King, Scott Nixon, Series 358:27-39. Stephen Olsen, Charles Roman, Barry Sullivan, Virginia Lee, Erika Lentz, Barry Costa-Pierce, Bindoff, N. L., J. Willebrand, V. Artale, A. James Boyd, and Janet Freedman for their help and Cazenave, J. Gergory, S. Gulev, K. Hanawa, C. advice in developing this paper. Our use of the Le Quéré, S. Levitus, Y. Nojiri, C. K. Shum, L. painting of the “Gullah Fisherman" by John W. D. Talley, and A. Unnikrishnan. 2007. Jones (author and artist of Confederate Currency: Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. The Color of Money, Images of Slavery in In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Confederate and Southern States Currency) is used Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, with permission. We thank Nate Dibble for editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science preparing the illustration of a coastal lagoon. basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

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APPENDIX 1. Social science-based methods for assessing values. Social scientists have developed a variety of methods that are capable of assessing all four classifications of value with varying degrees of quantification. Clearly, this literature is far too extensive to be discussed in any detail. Rather, we briefly summarize some available methods in an attempt to give a flavor of the range of techniques available to assess values, with key references to the literature. Some methods have rigorous conceptual foundations for value, whereas others are indicators of value, rather than measures of value. All methods have limitations. Commonly, methods with greater conceptual rigor might be more capable of providing quantitative measures of value, which are more easily incorporated into management decisions. However, these approaches might not be as appropriate when applied to values that are less tangible in nature and therefore inherently less quantifiable. In contrast, qualitative methods may be more pertinent to characterizing these latter types of value, but it may be more difficult to use these qualitative assessments to support practical management decisions. Planning and architects Community planners, landscape architects, and site designers sometimes use systematic methods of eliciting and assessing the values of a given community or user group. Such methods include visual preference surveys that measure individual preferences for different landscapes, architectural styles, or visual attributes of natural features such as a lagoon (e.g., Ryan 2005). A related method is visualization or visual impact assessment, through which potential changes to a given landscape are modeled via graphic simulation as a means of helping a community evaluate different planning or development scenarios (Berke et al. 2006). One example would be to show visualizations depicting how a lagoon is projected to change through natural processes and what the lagoon would look like under alternative development scenarios or alternative policies. Charrettes are collaborative public workshops that use an interactive approach to elicit values (Berke et al. 2006, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center 2007). Issues and concerns raised in charrettes are used to identify important stakeholder values, thereby making social values an integral part of the planning process. Charrettes also improve stakeholder communication, which can aid in developing a shared vision and building consensus. Charrettes are used primarily to engage interested parties in a decision-making process, but do not usually produce quantitative assessments of value. Thus, this method of assessing values is primarily qualitative. Economics

Economic methods of valuation are based on a rigorous conceptual foundation of individual preferences. Although economic values are most commonly expressed in dollar terms, economic theory also provides relative preferences over commodities (e.g., Mazzotta et al. 1994). The two primary methods for assessing economic values can be categorized into revealed preference methods and stated preference methods (e.g., Freeman 2003). Revealed preference approaches are based on inferring value from actual choices made by people, typically within market contexts (e.g., Just et al. 2004). Early work in revealed preference methods was based on valuing “consumer’s surplus,” or the excess in value above and beyond the purchase price of an object. Environmental economists extended market-based approaches to include “related markets” approaches such as the travel cost method or the hedonic price method (e.g., Freeman 2003). Related markets approaches are applied when a commodity such as a recreational fishing trip to a lagoon is not directly sold in the marketplace. Instead, a closely related “good” is used to estimate cost. For example, the travel cost approach uses the cost of accessing a recreational site as the price of “purchasing” the recreational activity. This cost is used as a substitute for the market price for the commodity. The value of a recreational experience is inferred by observing how participation rates vary as the cost of participating varies. The hedonic price approach relates the purchase price of a commodity such as a house to the environmental amenities in the surrounding area. If housing buyers Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

desire high levels of environmental quality such as views of a pristine lagoon, they will be willing to pay more for a house located on such a site compared to a house that is identical in all ways but is located on a site with lower environmental quality such as one without a view of a lagoon. The additional amount that consumers are willing to pay to live on a site of higher environmental quality is indicative of one component of the value of improved quality, i.e., that accruing to local homeowners. Stated preference methods are typically survey based, and respondents are asked a series of hypothetical questions that are used to infer values (e.g., Mitchell and Carson 1989). State-of-the-art surveys are developed and pre-tested with extensive use of focus groups, which are used to identify what potential respondents understand about the stated commodity, what information they require to provide meaningful answers, and what is the most effective format and wording for questions (Desvousges and Smith 1988). Early stated preference methods were based on the so-called contingent valuation method, which is a direct questioning approach in which the survey determines the maximum amount of money the respondent would pay for some stated commodity (e.g., Davis 1963, Randall et al. 1974). For example, a survey may be conducted to measure an individual’s willingness to pay for being able to take walks around a lagoon. Later applications of contingent valuation techniques include referendum-based approaches in which individuals are asked whether they would vote for a hypothetical program to provide some stated commodity at a stated price. For example, respondents might be asked whether they would vote for or against a program to restore eelgrass in a lagoon at some indicated cost to them, often in terms of higher taxes. “Choice-based” economic valuation methods lay out a series of two or more options, described in terms of a set of characteristics, and ask respondents to indicate which option they would select (e.g., Adamowicz et al. 1998). For example, a choice-based survey might ask respondents whether they would choose a program to protect a stated lagoon ecosystem at a given cost, or whether they would prefer an alternative program that might restore damaged wetlands. Statistical methods are used to determine how each characteristic affects the likelihood that individuals select an alternative, thereby providing a quantitative measure of the relative importance that the individuals place on each characteristic. This allows researchers to calculate relative values of different attributes. If the cost of the alternative is one attribute, then the researchers can calculate the implicit monetary value of the attributes, i.e., the relative value of a unit increase in the attribute versus a unit increase in cost. For example, if the commodity in question is a recreational fishing trip and two attributes are the catch rate and the cost of participating, the approach can be used to estimate the rate at which individuals are willing to trade off increased cost for increased catch rate, giving the dollar value of increased recreational catch.

In principle, stated preference methods can be used to calculate values associated with virtually any commodity, including values that are normally thought to be difficult or impossible to monetize. In practice, of course, valuation is complicated by issues such as the hypothetical nature of the transaction and the lack of knowledge about, or experience with, the commodity in question (e.g., Mitchell and Carson 1989). Sociology and psychology Social and psychological valuation methods characterize values using individuals’ expressions of the relative importance of different amenities. These are primarily qualitative methods that are most typically based on ordinal rankings (most important vs. less important) or rough interval-scale measures of differences in assessed values. These methods are generally implemented using interview techniques such as individual narratives, semi-structured interviews, or formal surveys (e.g., Brandenburg and Carroll 1995, Wengraf 2001). A range of tools are used to analyze interviews. For example, content analysis systematically identifies keywords and causal structures in written or spoken text based on the assumption that the most Ecology and Society 14(1): 8 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art8/

commonly used words, phrases, and ideas in a communication reflect the most important considerations (e.g., Krippendorff 2004). A researcher might ask a series of open-ended questions to homeowners to identify the most important values that they hold for a lagoon. The responses could be analyzed using content analysis to identify the number of times certain words, phrases, or concepts are mentioned. The researcher then assumes that the values that are referred to a large number of times are most important, whereas values that are rarely or never mentioned are less important. Formal surveys commonly use Likert scales to identify the strength of agreement that respondents have to a set of statements. For example, one statement in a survey might say “I enjoy living near a lagoon because I am inspired by the beautiful views,” and respondents would indicate the extent to which they agree with the statement on a five-point scale ranging from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree.” Responses can be used to calculate an index or scale that measures the relative importance of different values associated with the lagoon. Social/civic valuation is used to measure values that groups place on amenities. For example, the results of an actual public referendum might be used to determine if the majority of voters feel that protecting a lagoon is worth what it will cost to do so. Questionnaires are sometimes used as a follow up to a referendum to get additional information. Alternatively, hypothetical questions are sometimes posed to groups to elicit civic values. For example, focus groups might be convened to discuss lagoons to obtain a better understanding of the values that participants hold for lagoons. However, given the small number of participants, focus group are not typically used to assess values per se, but rather are more commonly used to identify the value or suite of values that may be most important. Focus groups might also be used as a preliminary stage in the development of a more rigorous method of eliciting values such as a survey. “Citizen juries” comprising representative members of the public could be presented with extensive information on the ecosystem functions and services associated with coastal lagoons (e.g., Brown et al. 1995). Juries are then asked to deliberate to decide whether it is worthwhile to carry out a program to protect or restore a lagoon, with a particular outcome being achieved at a stated cost to the community. Decision sciences Decision scientists have developed a host of methods to help improve decision making. One method for eliciting values is multiattribute utility (MAU) theory, which is based on the notion that in complex and unfamiliar situations, values are constructed as part of the decision process (Keeney and Raiffa 1993). MAU theory attempts to simplify the cognitive task of constructing values by using an intensive survey approach that probes the decision maker with carefully structured questions that require a respondent to trade off characteristics against each other, thereby eliciting importance ranks and weights.