Unedited author‟s version Citation: G. Meisenberg, 2014: Cognitive human capital and economic growth in the 21st century. In: T. Abrahams (ed): Economic Growth in the 21st Century: New Research, pp. 49-106. New York: Nova Publishers. COGNITIVE HUMAN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE 21ST CENTURY Gerhard Meisenberg Department of Biochemistry, Ross University School of Medicine, Portsmouth, Dominica Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells: The Outline of History, 1920 ABSTRACT This chapter explores the interdependency between economic growth and cognitive human capital, which is also described as cognitive skills or intelligence and is measured either as performance in scholastic achievement tests or IQ. It shows that unlike the mere amount of schooling, intelligence has been a robust predictor of economic growth in the recent past. Plausible mediators of the intelligence effect include greater labor productivity, better institutions, more competent management, lower fertility, and wider time horizons. Based on the observation of secular gains in intelligence that have become known as Flynn effects, a theory of economic growth is Email:
[email protected]. 2 Gerhard Meisenberg developed that is based on the trans-generational reinforcement between rising intelligence and economic, technological and institutional advances. It provides a parsimonious explanation for the sustained nature of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution, and a conceptual framework for more specific theories and hypotheses. The chapter arrives at projections of economic growth for the first half of the 21st century that are based on the empiric relationship between current prosperity, human capital, and economic growth.