Hong Kong Financials 1 July 2016 Hong Kong Property Sector First impressions can be deceiving: another look at the contrarian case Jonas Kan, CFA (852) 2848 4439
[email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 55 Hong Kong Property Sector: 1 July 2016 Table of contents Are there good reasons to look at Hong Kong Q1 4 property stocks right now? Q2 Are Hong Kong property stocks cheap enough? 10 What would happen if residential property prices in Q3 16 Hong Kong fell to zero? Can the Hong Kong family property companies Q4 22 modernise — or at least pay higher dividends? Market snapshot: Are there signs that Hong Kong 33 property sector is about to turn the corner? Cover illustration: My wife and my mother-in-law. They are both in this picture - find them by William Ely Hill, 1915. An optical illusion showing a portrait of the artist's wife, head-and-shoulders, facing left away from the viewer, and the artist’s elderly mother-in-law, head-and-shoulders, facing left, with a kerchief over her head. Please also see: Hong Kong Property Sector: It’s time to be more greedy than fearful 25 May 2016 Jonas Kan, CFA (852) 2848 4439 (
[email protected]) 2 Hong Kong Property Sector: 1 July 2016 The contrarian case for Hong Kong property Jonas Kan, CFA (852) 2848 4439 Hong Kong Property stocks are not for the faint-hearted. They never have been.
[email protected] History shows us that these shares can be highly volatile, particularly during times when the physical market is facing challenges.