RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

CROSSRAIL ANALYSING PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE FROM READING TO SHENFIELD 2015

HOW HAVE PRICES PERFORMED? MEASURING SUPPLY OUTLOOK ON TRACK: DELIVERING GROWTH The tunnelling for , Europe’s largest infrastructure project, is nearly complete. Between now and when the line starts to operate from the end of 2018, the demand for public transport will continue to grow, making the delivery of this - line crucial for the Capital.

The population of London has now passed The increased demand for property close to its previous record-high, seen just before the transport links has a clear relationship with “The arrival of a high-speed outbreak of the Second World War. Some price performance. This has been shown line which increases London’s forecast that by 2036, the city’s population historically with the extension of the Jubilee rail capacity by 10% is will reach 10 million, and demand for public line. The anticipation of new transport links highly anticipated. Transport transport will have risen by another 50%. also affects prices, with the new research in links are key factors in the Transport infrastructure in London is this report showing that, on average, prices within a 10 or 15 minute walk from Crossrail property market, especially already straining to keep up with passenger numbers, which have risen by a third on the stations have already outperformed prices in in the Capital.” tube in the past 10 years. The underground the wider local authorities since the project ran more services and carried more was granted Royal Assent in 2008. Averaged GRAINNE GILMORE customers than ever before in 2013-14, with over each station, the outperformance is Head of UK Residential Research a record 1.3 billion passengers. As a result, around 5%. the arrival of Crossrail, a high-speed line There are pockets of sustained which increases London’s rail capacity by outperformance, especially in , 10% is highly anticipated. but average residential property prices around a few of the stations in the Eastern and Transport links are key factors in the Western sections of the line show a more property market, especially in the Capital. mixed picture. Yet those areas where price Knight Frank’s recent survey of those growth has lagged the surrounding areas renting property in London – the largest may offer significant opportunities for further of its kind to date – showed that nearly price uplifts, especially where large-scale 80% of Londoners said proximity to regeneration and development is underway. transport links was a key factor when deciding where to live. When fully complete in 2019, Crossrail will bring an additional 1.5 million people to within a 45-minute commute of the centre of FIGURE 1 London. In many cases, it is not just the How journey times will be cut when Crossrail opens reduced travel times that have the potential to create value, but also large regeneration projects connected with Crossrail, which are 2015 not only improving the realms around stations, EXISTING JOURNEY TIMES 15 MINS but providing a wider choice of higher level CROSSRAIL amenities as well as residential property DIRECT JOURNEY TIMES FROM 2018/19 options. There may be other, separate, Tube DLR Rail factors contributing to the price movements DLR JOURNEY seen in some of the areas we are monitoring, CHANGES TIMES 30 such as local infrastructure changes or local MINS investment, and we recognise this. Court Road to In 2013 we assessed how residential prices Stratford to around central Crossrail stations performed to Bond Street between 2008, when Royal Assent for the Forest Gate to Paddington Current Crossrail 45 DLR project was granted, and 2012. On average, to Farringdon MINS Tottenham Court Road to Canary Wharf 20 11 Whitechapel to Bond Street 23 10 DLR Custom House to Bond Street prices within a 10-minute walkzone of the Custom House to Bond Street 26 17 to Liverpool Street stations outperformedStratford to Paddington the wider prime 30 18 Slough to Liverpool Street central LondonForest Gate market to Paddington by 8%. 38 22 Canary Wharf to Heathrow T4 Woolwich to Farringdon 42 17 60 In this report,Southall we to Liverpoolare extending Street our reach,47 24 Maidenhead to Farringdon MINS examiningSlough how to propertyLiverpool Street prices around each58 39 Reading to Canary Wharf Canary Wharf to Heathrow T4 66 47 of the stations from Shenfield to Maidenhead to Heathrow T4 Maidenhead to Farringdon 76 46 75 have movedReading over to Canar the ylast Wharf seven years, and82 67 MINS Abbey Wood to Heathrow T4 89 60 Source: Knight Frank Residential Research 90 comparing this with average price growth in MINS the surrounding areas.

2 Published on a non-reliance basis; please see the important note on back cover.

2015 EXISTING JOURNEY TIMES 15 MINS CROSSRAIL DIRECT JOURNEY TIMES FROM 2018/19 Tube DLR Rail DLR JOURNEY CHANGES 30 TIMES MINS

Tottenham Court Road to Canary Wharf Stratford to Paddington Whitechapel to Bond Street 45 Forest Gate to Paddington MINS

DLR Woolwich to Farringdon

DLR Custom House to Bond Street Southall to Liverpool Street Slough to Liverpool Street 60 MINS Canary Wharf to Heathrow T4 Maidenhead to Farringdon Reading to Canary Wharf 75 Abbey Wood to Heathrow T4 MINS 90 MINS 105 MINS CROSSRAIL 2015 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

make this map thinner (see attachment), add graph. MAP 1 Central Crossrail stations: 10-minute walkzone Property market performance versus prime central London (PCL): Q2 2008 - Q3 2014 Could you also do the walk zones in a di erent colour - other than grey, STATION ENTRANCES to liven it up a bit?

Regent’s 10-MINUTE WALKZONE I think the actual crossrail train line Park linking the stations should be displayed CROSSRAIL ROUTE on this map - similar line to the one in the original report? FARRINGDON Over- In line Under- performance with market performance PADDINGTON Can we also highlight (in green) WHITECHAPEL the 3 main parks and label them: BOND STREET LIVERPOOL STREET Hyde Park TOTTENHAM CANARY St James Park COURT ROAD WHARF Regent's Park Hyde Park

St James’s We'll also need to add a key (for all maps): Park red dots = Crossrail stations Circle = 10-minute walk zones

Total residential units under construction (10-minute walkzones) TOTAL UNITS: 2,976

Reading and Twyford were announced as Residential property prices within a BOND STREET Crossrail stations in March 2014 and, as 10-minute walk of the central stations such, we have included a shorter comparison have risen, on average, by 57% since © OpenStreetMap (and) contributors, CC-BY-SA period for these stations (see Map 3). Crossrail received Royal Assent in July 2008. This compares to 43% growth in We have examined price performance at each the prime central London market over the station along the line except Heathrow, where same period, according to Knight Frank’s the lack of housing within the immediate own index. proximity has excluded it from this study. The biggest rises in residential prices have been seen within a 10-minute walk of Bond Central Crossrail Street. Our analysis shows an 82% uplift in prices in the area surrounding the station, FIGURE 2 Residential market performance The central section of Crossrail, running which encompasses much of . While versus PCL (Q2 2008 - Q3 2014) from Paddington to Canary Wharf, some of this increase has been underpinned encompasses some of the largest by the buoyant central London market, it Over- In line Under- regeneration projects currently being performance with market performance does not explain the full uplift – prices in the undertaken, from the £1 billion overhaul of wider Mayfair market were some 30% Tottenham Court Road Station and its higher at the end of Q3 2014 than July 2008. FIGURE 3 Central Crossrail price surrounds to a completely new Crossrail growth comparison (indexed) It can be argued that many stations have station at Canary Wharf. Indeed, Tottenham seen increased value that will come from a Court Road and Farringdon, both sitting in rejuvenation of the public realm, new high 160 10-MINUTE WALKZONE this section of the line, will become two of end private development as well as the new PCL AVERAGE PRICE GROWTH the biggest transport hubs in London. 150 station and the transport benefits of the Crossrail link. In total, there are 2,976 residential units in 140 schemes which have been started within the Residential prices within a 10-minute 10-minute walkzones of central Crossrail walk of Tottenham Court Road Station, 130 stations and a further 10,096 units with an area which stretches from and planning approved. Some of these schemes to Oxford Street and , 120 may be phased, and take some years to have also seen a notable 61% uplift since July 2008, with a particular rise in prices 110 deliver but the development potential of the areas surrounding the stations is clear. between Q2 2013 and Q2 2014. This is another area where large-scale ‘place- 100 Prices around Canary Wharf Station have making’ is underway, with a new Piazza, lagged the strong growth seen in prime outer 90 pedestrianized walkways, as well as the London from 2008 to date, but the scale of construction of a new West End theatre 80 development taking place in the area, and as part of a mixed-use scheme at One 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 further East, make this an area to watch. Oxford Street.

3 MAP 2 Eastern Crossrail stations: 15-minute walkzones Property market performance versus average growth for local authorities: Q2 2008 - Q3 2014

STATION ENTRANCES SHENFIELD 15-MINUTE WALKZONE CROSSRAIL ROUTE

BRENTWOOD Over- In line Under- performance with market performance

GIDEA PARK GOODMAYES MANOR CHADWELL PARK SEVEN HEATH KINGS MARYLAND FOREST STRATFORD GATE

CUSTOM Total residential units CANARY HOUSE under construction WHARF (15-minute walkzones) TOTAL UNITS: 5,417

WOOLWICH ABBEY WOOD

© OpenStreetMap (and) contributors, CC-BY-SA

outperformed prices in the surrounding Eastern Crossrail FIGURE 4 Eastern Crossrail price local authorities. The combined Eastern growth comparison (indexed) The demand on current transport Index shows a 21% uplift in prices since infrastructure in has July 2008, compared to an 18% rise in 120 increased sharply over the last decade, the local authorities where the stations 15-MINUTE WALKZONES 115 AVERAGE PRICE GROWTH partly due to new areas in this part of are situated. FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES London gaining renewed traction as The biggest uplifts in prices have been seen 110 residential hubs. The number of people around Maryland and Forest Gate stations, using the London Underground’s Jubilee 105 with a 37% and 35% rise in prices since Line - the only underground line directly July 2008 respectively. In comparison, 100 serving Canary Wharf – each day has prices in the wider local authority of 95 risen by more than 80% since 2002, Newham rose by 16% over the same the biggest percentage increase across 90 period. These areas have seen a sharp rise any line in the tube network over this in buyer demand in recent years with many 85 period, according to figures from seeking out good quality housing stock at a London Underground. 80 lower price per square foot than 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 This highlights the importance of comparable areas in . The Crossrail which will further open up these addition of Crossrail to the overland train in the area will cut travel times into and areas in the East, adding to the transport services currently in operation will likely across London, and also make the journey capacity, and dramatically cutting travel enhance its “catchment” of appeal to much more straightforward. For example, times into central and West London, as buyers from 2019. the current journey time to Paddington is shown in figure 1. Shenfield, a popular residential area in one hour and eight minutes, with one or On average, residential properties within , has also outperformed the wider two changes on the tube. The journey on a 15-minute walk of stations in the local market by 12% over the time period Crossrail will be just 51 minutes with no Eastern section of Crossrail have we have examined. The arrival of Crossrail need to change trains.

4 CROSSRAIL 2015 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

However, prices surrounding several In the walkzones we examined around combined with new development will result stations along the Eastern route of the stations from Ilford to Romford, in price outperformance. Crossrail have not quite kept up with the some ten new developments have had Average residential prices have risen by surrounding area. Average residential planning approved or are already under 25% around Woolwich station, this is a prices within a 15-minute walk of construction, delivering more than slight underperformance compared to the Goodmayes, and 1,500 private and affordable residential 32% uplift in over the same Abbey Wood stations have shown units. A further 28 schemes are in ‘pre- period. We expect this trend to change growth over the period, but have lagged planning’ and may come to fruition however as the extensive new development the wider local authority averages. in the years to come. The underperformance around Ilford around the station is completed. There are Such levels of development usually bring station is more noticeable, with prices currently 163 new residential units under with them the scope for price uplifts as the lagging the local authority by construction within a 15 minute walk of the public realm is improved, amenities receive around 10%. new station, and planning has been a boost and buyers have new reasons to approved for 2,700 more, with 400 being The properties monitored to create our visit the area. The relative ‘discount’ in built directly above the new station. indices overlap in some cases, as the terms of price per square foot in these stations along this section of the line are areas compared to more central locations Such ‘place-making’ will likely create price quite close. However, it is interesting to is also likely to work in their favour. We uplifts and deliver value, as this area of note the levels of development being expect that as the opening of Crossrail London becomes a more highly connected undertaken around these stations. approaches, the increased connectivity place in which to live.

CROSSRAIL ROUTE ! Cheshunt CROSSRAIL 2 CROSSRAIL 2 REGIONAL SCHEME - POSSIBLE OPTIONS ! Essex The preferred route for ‘Crossrail 2’ – the ! high speed train which will, if it is approved, Hertfordshire run from South West London to the North ! East of the city is shown opposite. This Enfield ! route has been identified by transport chiefs and the Mayor Boris Johnson. There had been several possible options, ! ! but as the map shows, the preferred route Barnet ! Alexandra Palace ! Haringey will run from Wimbledon through Victoria Harrow Turnpike Lane ! ! and Euston St Pancras up to ! Seven Sisters Junction and on to Tottenham Hale and Waltham Forest New Southgate. There will also be an

I s Hackney l option to extend the line by connecting it to i n Brent g ! t Camden o ! n ! Dalston ! existing national rail networks in the south Junction ! Euston west and north east of London. This would St. Pancras ! ! Angel Tower create routes from stations such as Hamlets Newha Paddington ! ! ! ! Kingston and through central ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Acton Mainline ! London to Tottenham Hale and on to ! West Tottenham ! Ealing Victoria Cheshunt. The new line will intersect with ! Court Road King’s Road ‘Crossrail 1’ at Tottenham Court Road, Chelsea ! underlining the importance of this station as a transport hub for London. ! Junction Gre

Lambeth In his Autumn Statement in December last ! Richmond year, the Chancellor ear-marked £2 million ! Upon Thames towards a full business case for Crossrail 2 ! Broadway by the Department of Transport and ! ! Kingston Wimbledon Transport for London. If approved, it is ! ! ! Hampton Wick ! ! estimated that Crossrail 2 would be ! ! completed by 2030, and be used by ! Surbiton es 90,000 travellers a day in the capital. m a ! h T

Surrey n o All stations marked provide an There is likely to be burgeoning interest p

U

n ! Sutton indication of where Crossrail 2 o in development opportunities close t s stations could be located. No g n to the stations along Crossrail 2, just Ki ! station or infrastructure location has yet been finalised. as there has been along the first ! Epsom Crossrail route. Surrey

5 MAP 3 Western Crossrail stations: 15-minute walkzones Property market performance versus average growth for local authorities: Q2 2008 - Q3 2014

STATION ENTRANCES

15-MINUTE WALKZONE ACTON CROSSRAIL ROUTE BURNHAM MAIDENHEAD WEST MAINLINE SLOUGH DRAYTON TAPLOW SOUTHALL Over- In line Under- EALING performance with market performance BROADWAY LANGLEY IVER HAYES & HARLINGTON

TWYFORD HEATHROW AIRPORT

Total residential units under construction READING (15-minute walkzones) TOTAL UNITS: 3,282

means they may too be developed in the Western Crossrail FIGURE 5 Western Crossrail price coming years. Residential property prices within a growth comparison (indexed) 15-minute walk of stations on the At the other extreme, prices around Western Crossrail line have, on average, Southall Station underperformed the local 130 outperformed the wider market by 6%. authority average by around 30% 15-MINUTE WALKZONES 125 AVERAGE PRICE GROWTH Between July 2008 and the end of between Q3 2008 and Q3 2014 (figure 6). FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES Q3 2014, our index shows prices rose by Prices within a 15-minute walk of the 120 station rose by 12% over the time frame, an average of 28% around the stations, 115 compared to a 22% rise in the wider but this was some way below the 44% 110 local authorities. growth seen in the wider Ealing area, much of which came in 2013 and 2014. 105 However, this average masks some large This can, in some part, be explained by differences in performance. The two this walkzone encompassing large 100 biggest outliers are Acton Mainline station industrial units to the south of the station, 95 © OpenStreetMap (and) contributors, CC-BY-SA and Southall. therefore reducing the total number of 90 Prices around the station at Acton have residential units being transacted, which climbed by 77% over the last six years, far means it can take longer for prices rises to 85 above the 44% growth seen in Ealing over show up in the data. 80 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 the same time period. A new station at Lagging price growth around Southall Acton, as well as improvements to the Station presents an opportunity, public realm around the station will however. A brand new Crossrail station Reading and Twyford were announced as enhance the area, while direct Crossrail will be built just to the north of the Crossrail stations relatively recently, in journeys of 23 minutes to Canary Wharf existing station. In addition, there is set to March 2014. The timing of this will further open up this area to those be large-scale residential development announcement means that we will re-visit working in the City and further East. The and regeneration on one of the industrial performance after a longer time has opportunities are underlined by the level sites already referred to. The Southall elapsed. However, demand in Reading is of development happening around this Gas Works site has permission for 3,750 underlined by the fact that there are station, with 435 private and affordable homes, and there are more than another already 850 private and affordable residential units with planning permission 1,000 homes with planning permission or residential units with planning permission or already under construction. A further already under construction within a or under construction within a 15-minute 171 units are in “pre-planning” which 15-minute walk of the station. walk of the station.

6 CROSSRAIL 2015 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

MAP 3 Western Crossrail stations: 15-minute walkzones FIGURE 7 How close would you like to Property market performance versus average growth for local authorities: Q2 2008 - Q3 2014 live to your nearest transport link?

WITHIN 2 KM WITHIN 1KM

IN 750 ME ITH TR ACTON E BURNHAM W S WEST MAINLINE N 500 ME MAIDENHEAD HI T EALING T R WEST I 250 M E SLOUGH N S DRAYTON W I E TAPLOW H T

SOUTHALL R T

I

EALING E S HANWELL BROADWAY W LANGLEY IVER HAYES & HARLINGTON

TWYFORD HEATHROW AIRPORT 16% WITHIN 250 METRES (approx 3 minutes to walk)

24% WITHIN 500 METRES (approx 6 minutes to walk)

22% WITHIN 750 METRES (approx 9 minutes to walk) READING 29% WITHIN 1 KM (approx 12-minute walk/3 minutes to cycle) SOUTHALL 5% WITHIN 2 KM (approx 25-minute walk/7 minutes to cycle) 4% Don’t know/NA

Source: Knight Frank Tenant Survey - London 91% percentage of London FIGURE 6 Residential market performance tenants who want to live versus local authority (Q2 2008 - Q3 2014) within 1km of a transport link

Over- In line Under- performance with market performance

FIGURE 8 Timeline to completion © OpenStreetMap (and) contributors, CC-BY-SA 4 2017 December 2014 The first new Crossrail Late 2018 5 Vast majority of Crossrail’s rolling stock will start to The first Crossrail 26 miles of tunnelling and replace existing suburban services will start 1 the major civil engineering 2 3 trains between Liverpool through the central Late 2019 works nearing completion Street and Shenfield London tunnelled The full Crossrail service section from will be operating from 2015-2017 Paddington to Heathrow and Reading Major fit-out of stations and tunnels continues Woolwich to Abbey Wood as does the major upgrade of the existing rail and Shenfield network for Crossrail services by Network Rail

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Crossrail

7 GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing

Outlook FIGURE 10 Prices set to outperform Versus local markets (2015-2018) Our research shows that to date, RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Gráinne Gilmore average residential price growth in Strong Strong and around Crossrail stations has outperformance outperformanceHead of UK Residential Research +44 20 7861 5102 outperformed that seen in the In line In line [email protected] surrounding local authority areas by with market with market 5%. Some areas have seen stronger RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT growth than others (see maps), with Reading Justin Gaze overall price performance generally Twyford Joint Head of Residential Development stronger in central London. +44 20 7861 5407 Maidenhead [email protected] This reflects the wider market trends seen Ian Marris since 2008, but it is notable that over the last Taplow Joint Head of Residential Development six months, price growth in PCL has eased, yet Burnham +44 20 7861 5404 prices around many stations have continued to [email protected] Modest In line climb. There is a strong historic link between Slough outperformance outperformance outperformance with market Rupert Dawes transport infrastructure and pricing, with the Langley Head of New Home Sales two key transport hubs of Tottenham Court +44 20 7861 5445 Road and Farringdon seeing some of the Iver [email protected] strongest price growth. It is worth noting that these stations have also undergone, or are undergoing, serious re-development, with an Hayes & Harlington Front cover image produced with permission overhaul of the public realm surrounding them, Southall from Transport for London underlining the part played by regeneration in Knight Frank Residential Research provides underpinning property price growth. Hanwell strategic advice, consultancy services and Over the last 12 months, the price “ripple” West Ealing forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide effect in London has really started to take Ealing Broadway including developers, investors, funding effect, with stronger price growth in areas organisations, corporate institutions and the surrounding central London. This could help Acton Main Line public sector. All our clients recognise the need feed into stronger price growth around stations Paddington for expert independent advice customised to Bond Street towards the East and West, especially those Bond Street their specific needs. which have underperformed to date, and Bond Street Acton Mail Line Acton Mail Line where housing supply is set to be delivered in Tottenham Court Road Farringdon the coming years. We expect that residential Farringdon prices in and around most Crossrail stations Farringdon Paddington will outperform local markets between now Paddington Liverpool Street and 2018, with some areas performing more Maryland Maryland You cannot rely on the whole or any part/s of strongly, as indicated opposite. Our base Whitechapel Forest Gate Forest Gate this document (“Information”) in any way. You forecasts show cumulative price growth of Canary Wharf must make your own independent enquiries, Tottenham Court Road 15.2% in prime central London between now Tottenham Court Road inspections and searches and take your own and the end of 2018, with growth of around Custom House independent professional advice. Liverpool Street Station 18% across London as a whole. Woolwich The Information is not definitive and is not Burnham Burnham intended to give advice about properties, Abbey Wood Shenfield FIGURE 9 Shenfield markets, policies, taxes, currencies or any other Stations with the highest level Stratford matters. The Information may not be accurate of historic outperformance and all of the subject matter may change without Versus local markets (Q2 2008- Q3 2014) Maryland notice. So far as applicable laws allow, neither we 1 Bond Street nor any of our members, consultants, ‘partners’ Forest Gate or employees will have any responsibility or 2 Acton Mail Line 1 Bond Street 38.38% 1 Bond Street 38.38% Manor Park liability in connection with or arising out of the 3 Farringdon 2 Acton Main Line 33.10% 2 Acton Mail Line 33.10% accuracy or completeness or otherwise of Ilford the Information or the reasonableness of any 4 Paddington 3 Farringdon 24.41% 3 Farringdon 24.41% assumption we have made or any information included in the document or for any loss or 5 Maryland 4 Paddington 23.72% 4 Paddington 23.72% Goodmayes damage resulting from any use of or reference to 6 Forest Gate 5 Maryland 20.74% 5 Maryland 20.74% the Information. As a general review, prepared Chadwell Heath using information from various sources which 7 Tottenham Court Road 6 Forest Gate 18.73% 6 Forest Gate 18.73% may not have been verified, this document does Romford not necessarily represent the view of Knight 8 Liverpool Street Station 7 Tottenham Court Road 17.66% 7 Tottenham Court Road 17.66% Frank LLP in any respect. 9 Burnham 8 Liverpool Street 17.58% 8 Liverpool Street 17.58% Harold Wood © Knight Frank LLP 2015 9 9 10 Shenfield Burnham 12.56% Burnham 12.56% All rights reserved. Copying, modification or reproduction of the Brentwood Information is not permitted without the prior written approval 10 Shenfield 11.80% 10 Shenfield 11.80% of Knight Frank LLP. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability Shenfield partnership registered in with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London Source: Knight Frank Residential Research Source: Knight Frank Residential Research W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.