Trial by television When Antoine Vayer called Chris Froome’s Tour performance “miraculous”, his suspicions were based on calculated performance figures. Is this pseudo-science or can monitoring riders’ power output play a part in defeating doping?

Writer: Daniel Friebe Photography: Tim De Waele *

y the first rest-day of the 2013 Tour, 450 is miraculous and beyond that is mutant.” surrounded by botoxed former None of this was intended as a compliment. beauties and their sugar daddies on Days later, at the entrance to the start village the garden terrace of a plush Vendée in Avranches, we recognised the twin tufts of hotel, Dave Brailsford could no greying hair either side of Vayer’s bald dome, Blonger hide the exasperation in his voice. his bulging eyes and conspiratorial smile. Just 48 hours earlier, Chris Froome had taken “Don’t repeat this,” he whispered, “but tonight the yellow jersey with a dazzling tour de force I’m meeting Brailsford.” at Ax 3 Domaines. It was a win that Brailsford If the ensuing discussion was supposed to rightly wanted to celebrate, the culmination of broker peace and some level of understanding, months of planning and hard graft. Yet much of it didn’t have the desired effect: Vayer’s articles what he’d seen in the press the following morning implying that Froome’s performances were in line had left him incensed. In Le Monde, the former with a turbo-charged, EPO-fuelled Armstrong Froome and Team Sky’s strict adherence to all checks and Festina coach, Antoine Vayer, said that by his continued, gaining increasing traction at the Tour. controls did nothing to silence their 2013 Tour doubters calculations, Froome’s average power Vayer’s reputation as a firebrand would have output on the final climb had made him relatively easy to dismiss – that’s if the climb was the last of five in a 220km, been 446 watts, just two fewer other analysts weren’t arriving at similar figures third-week mountain stage, or came after 120 than Lance Armstrong on the with their different formulae. When the flat kilometres in the first few days of a race. same ascent in the 2003 Tour. practice of estimating power outputs on the By 2013, though, some of the individuals doing Vayer lent further context: basis of a rider’s time on a certain climb and the sums were experts with refined techniques for “Below 410 watts there’s his weight was in its infancy, the simplicity gathering and processing performance data. One no guarantee but it’s of the methods made a mockery of the of them, the South African physiologist, Ross human, between results. Wind speed and direction Tucker, saw Froome rampage to victory at Ax 410 and 430 is were either assumed or ignored, as 3 Domaine and mused that he was “either one suspicious, up to was air pressure, the influence of exceptional individual or, well, we know the rest, drafting, the rolling resistance of we have seen this movie too often in the sport.” the road surface and a host of other By now, understandably, Sky and Brailsford factors. Rider weights and even were beginning to feel embattled. Under pressure where climbs started and finished to release Froome’s power files, Brailsford replied were also subject to guesswork. that there were “very few people who can properly This was before one even interpret and understand that data” but plenty considered, for example, whether who were happy to indulge in “pseudo-science”. That term – “pseudo-science” – added a Molotov cocktail to an already angry bonfire. The flames have continued to be fanned by more prodigious exploits from Froome. Barely a race now passes without someone estimating the winner’s wattage, his power-to-weight ratio in watts per kilo or his VAM – a measure of

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5% The typical difference in maximum sustainable power between a 20-minute and 60-minute effort. Around 25W for a good pro

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Chris Froome’s Brailsford has called performances at the practice of power the 2013 Tour were calculation via TV subject to extensive using assumed data scrutiny by ‘experts’ ‘pseudo-science’

climbing rate per hour invented by the notorious intellectually and philosophically. In other words, Michele Ferrari. And barely a number can be they all acknowledge that there will always be quoted without a pronouncement, implicit or outliers, freaks of nature who exceed what we explicit, on whether the rider is doping or not. previously believed was possible. When Antoine Meanwhile, team coaches such as Sky’s Tim Vayer writes in Le Monde that, based on his stats Kerrison, FDJ’s Fred Grappe and Julien Pinot, from the 2013 Tour, Chris Froome “must be the Cannondale’s Sebastian Weber and BMC’s Marco best rouleur-grimpeur of all time”, a scepticism Pinotti – all of whom we spoke to while bordering on sarcasm almost drips from the page. researching this article – continue to view the new This, though, is also a hypothesis that most science of performance estimation with a mix of objective judges are willing to entertain. Fred puzzlement, curiosity and weariness. With Weber Grappe nuances that Froome wouldn’t even need it’s mainly the latter: “I can remember seeing some to be the very best athlete of his generation: “To do crazy figures for Contador on Verbier in the 2009 what he does, you’d need a VO2max in the high Tour that were being quoted in German papers, 80s, getting towards 90 or even above – which is so I contacted the guys who’d worked them out. It very rare but you see in three or four riders in turned out they’d just asked 15 people to calculate most generations. You’d also need to be among and had taken the average. But these 15 people had the most efficient riders, in other words be able numbers between 380 and 490 watts! to get the best use of that cardiovascular engine. “There are so many other examples. We’ve seen past performances that have When I was working with Katusha last been consistent with a VO2max of 100, year, we’d changed the tyres we were 102, and that’s been because of illegal using and guys were coming back from “It turned out they’d methods. You have to bear in mind that the Tour de San Luis and Oman saying just asked 15 people to blood doping can boost VO2max by the new ones felt slow, especially in hot seven or eight millilitres, then there can weather. So we tested the tyres on a calculate and had taken the also be a small psychological boost that velodrome to measure the rolling average. But these 15 people comes with doping. So you’ve perhaps resistance and, in cold conditions in the had numbers between 380 had riders with a natural VO2max that’s velodrome, one tyre was 17 watts faster been very high boosting it by up to 10 than the other one. That’s one tyre. So and 490 watts!” millilitres and into that ‘unexplored’ zone two tyres would be over 30 watts! And Sebastian Weber above 95. That’s been down to doping when it’s warmer it’s worse and when it’s – but at some point you may just have a bad road it’s worse. So how can these to stand back and say, ‘This is a physical calculations account for just an easy specimen that has never existed before.’” thing like rolling resistance, which is key because the pace is highest and the group biggest.” the speed is not that important on a climb?” Nowadays, Pinotti is more inclined to endorse the For every Weber, though, there is a Pinotti, the work of the best couch statisticians – especially recently retired rider who is now a coach at BMC. the mysterious @ammattipyöräily (he or she Froome and his credibility, though, are really The Italian says that his generally dim view of the doesn’t identify him or herself in email exchanges separate issues. A more important question is armchair analysts changed when, last winter, a with Procycling), who is known to collect raw data whether it’s ever okay to put a limit on what can prominent Twitter-based number cruncher from from professional racers and calculate other riders’ be achieved – to say that, as per the Olympic ideal, Finland contacted him to request some of Pinotti’s wattages by extrapolation. Pinotti worked with sporting competition is about going ever stronger, old power files for personal research. The account Sebastian Weber at T-Mobile and HTC-Columbia higher, faster, but only up to a pre-agreed goes by the Twitter handle @ammattipyöräily but is sceptical about Weber’s claims that a change threshold. This idea jars with Julien Pinot of FDJ. - ‘professional cycling’. Its owner told Pinotti that of tyres could save a rider up to 30 watts – and Marco Pinotti feels the same, although concedes he or she would compare Pinotti’s raw, accurate the logical implications for armchair analysis. that limits must actually exist, there’s just no way power data from the 2010 Giro with the estimates “In my experience road surface makes the biggest of knowing where. “No one will ever win the 100 generated by his own timings and algorithms. difference but the Finnish guy, for example, builds metres in five seconds. That’s beyond the limit, Pinotti was shocked at the result: “Their accuracy that into his calculations,” Pinotti says. and you can say the same in cycling: to my mind was incredible,” Pinotti says. “They were never In the Italian’s view – as in Fred Grappe’s and 6.8, 6.9W/kg [at threshold] is beyond the limit. But more than about five watts out.” Ross Tucker’s – knowing or accurately estimating where do you draw that line?” Previously, Pinotti says, the limitations of wattages can give us a useful overview of And, maybe more pertinently, why would you remote analysis had been all too clear. He sensed performance trends and clues about doping draw a line – as in, for what purpose? Three-time – and could see from his own SRM files – that patterns. But ‘pattern’ is the key word; apparently Tour champion Greg LeMond has long advocated several factors were substantially under- or unlike Vayer, this trio isn’t generally interested in the use of physiological monitoring to replace or overestimated by those watching races on TV with pointing fingers at individual riders or exceptional, augment an anti-doping system currently based a stopwatch and calculator. There was one variable isolated performances. There are two main on direct or indirect detection of banned drugs. that Antoine Vayer’s method ignored and which, reasons for this: one, an acceptance that The theory is that, after a certain period of time or in Pinotti’s view, caused errors “As far as I could inaccuracies can occur, both in the raw data number of tests, personalised performance limits see, he was always overestimating the watts generated by power meters and the amateur could be established. These would act as trip- because he underestimated the effect of drafting, sleuths’ maths, and, two, because they find the wires: a rider exceeding his ‘natural’ capacities especially in the climb’s first few kilometres where notion of a performance ‘ceiling’ problematic both would at the very least have to explain himself.

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Sky’s Kerrison says Alberto Contador’s that doping distracted searing climb to the sport from refining Verbier in 2009 training practices that provoked wildly varied are now helping riders calculated power data

Fred Grappe has also lobbied vocally for a had big pressure from Russia, he wasn’t connected performance passport to sit alongside the to anybody on the team, he didn’t have the biological equivalent. Grappe already employs necessary power – he was putting out 300W on something similar at FDJ – a profiling system a climb and then cracking – and his jump of called the Record Power Profile (RPP). He stresses performance was suspicious in the SRM data. that this is primarily a training optimisation tool, And two weeks later he tested positive for EPO.” although it would also theoretically reveal Weber says that rather than highlighting the suspicious spikes in performance. Constant need for performance surveillance, the example of monitoring of his riders’ training and race data Galimzyanov proves that normal testing is usually is indeed one reason why Grappe is “very close adequate. “If someone does something really to 100 per cent confident” in FDJ being completely stupid, dopes massively, you’re going to see it in clean and “willing to stake my future on it. Say the power data but you’ll also see it in the blood that if anyone’s caught doping, I should lose my and urine tests. The only exception would be job.” His fellow FDJ coach, Julien Pinot, won’t go someone using an undetectable product but then quite that far: “Someone can still do something you can never make a case unless you find out at home to gain a couple of per cent. Because what it is, anyway.” doping’s a mental thing, too. A guy could That eventuality, though – the appearance of dope just a tiny bit but that combined with a new, undetectable doping method with massive the psychological effect can be the difference performance gains – is surely exactly why between winning and losing.” authorities in professional cycling (and also teams) Pinot makes an important point: in the should be at least keeping an eye on current age of (alleged) micro-dosing and performance data. Perhaps it wouldn’t highly refined detection methods, the be immediately clear what was causing prospective cheat aims for small but “A guy could dope just a tiny climbing times to plunge or power decisive performance gains. And while outputs to soar but this realisation two or three per cent more oxygen to the bit but that combined with would at least be a call to arms, the spur muscles might be the difference between the psychological effect can to gather intelligence. As Pinotti notes: winning and losing, it probably won’t “If you look at the evolution of the world cause a glaring increase in power output. be the difference between record in the 10,000 metres, it’s pretty Herein, says Sebastian Weber, lies winning and losing” steady except for two big dips, one that one major problem with power as an Julien Pinot coincided with the advent of pacemakers indicator of doping: even if the data is and the other, we know now, with the accurate and environmental factors arrival of haematic doping. It was pretty discounted, fluctuations will be too small much the same in cycling, if you just to allow firm judgements. Either that or, in most was much scrutinised for his use of non-round looked at climbing times on L’Alpe d’Huez. I think cases, they could be legitimately explained away. chainrings in his 2012 annus mirabilis – and looking at the performance data of the group can As Weber says, with six weeks of training a rider ridiculed by Vayer for Sky’s claims about their definitely help to identify macro trends.” can conceivably increase his VO2max by 10ml and advantages. What Sky’s Head of Athletic One such macro-trend, of course, ought to his power output by several per cent. Year-on-year Performance, Tim Kerrison, and his colleagues be the current generation inching towards their comparisons might give us strong clues as to couldn’t fathom, though, was why Wiggins’s EPO-enhanced predecessors’ high watermark. whether a similar jump owed to hard work exceptional wattages weren’t producing even The question is how quickly the two graphs might or chemical enhancement but, without any more speed. It took them a while to find the intersect. Ross Tucker pondered precisely this in a accompanying chemical evidence, will never be answer: the shape of the chainrings was simply lengthy post on his ‘The Science of Sport’ website legally acceptable as proof. Moreover, as Weber causing the SRM to over-read his power output. in June 2013. Tucker’s final estimates, allowing for points out, the challenge of collecting years of These caveats aside, what almost everyone, even factors including improved technology, training accurate data – conceivably starting in a rider’s Weber, acknowledges is that good surveillance of methodology and increased financial incentives, junior days – is simply too daunting for any accurate performance data could help to direct was that it would probably take between 20 and authority to contemplate, and certainly cash- internal and external dope-testing. Weber has 30 years (Tucker admitted erring towards 30) for strapped national cycling federations, national first-hand experience of precisely this. In the a clean rider to challenge, say, Marco Pantani’s anti-doping agencies or the UCI. Calibration spring of 2012, while working for Katusha, record of 37:35 on Alpe d’Huez. Even allowing of the capture devices is another concern. Five he noticed gross inconsistencies for environmental conditions manufacturers – SRM, Garmin, Powertap, Stages between what the team’s on the day, with this in mind, and Quarq – dominate the power meter market. sprinter, Denis Galimzyanov, it is understandable that alarm All of their devices have a degree of variance was capable of in training and bells would start ringing when between each unit and require regular calibration his impressive displays in races. 380W L’Équipe reports that Chris the lowest calculated by the user. “It’s a minefield,” says Weber. “I mean, “At all of the training camps he power for Alberto Contador’s Froome’s record on the Col de even when you take the same power meter… they was the worst rider,” Weber eyebrow-raising performance la Madone is 36 seconds faster calibrate an SRM one way in Italy and another way recalls. “That spring, 2012, we at Verbier in the 2009 Tour de than Lance Armstrong’s. in America.” had a meeting at our service France, a non-alarming Decontextualised dot-joining The sports scientists at Sky have also sometimes course in Lake Garda, and I said, like this, though, is the source been left scratching their heads. Bradley Wiggins ‘This guy has a red light on’. He 6.1W/kg of great frustration to Froome

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Conventional testing was enough to reveal that Galimzyanov was both a massive doper and a bit rubbish

and his coaches. It’s easy to sympathise: Sky, more talented riders were capable of in a well-supported than any other team, entered professional cycling environment,” he goes on. “The focus of with the stated brief of pushing the boundaries of supporting and developing riders was through training, technology and – as a consequence – doping, so the athletes who thrived were not human performance. necessarily the most gifted but those who were Dave Brailsford has long argued that prepared to do whatever it took to perform, by widespread, heavy-duty doping stunted the sport’s whatever means. Specialised medical (doping) development and that his team have merely begun support was prioritised over legitimate coaching to explore areas and resources that for years and performance support structures. The sport were ignored. Marco Pinotti at BMC also fully suffered as a consequence.” subscribes to the view that EPO slowed cycling’s Kerrison could also have mentioned cycling’s natural evolution: “Ten years ago, almost no one rapidly growing gene pool and demographic was training at altitude because EPO did the same diversity – the fact that until just a few years ago thing, only much more powerfully. Now professional cyclists were almost if you look at the top 10 from any given exclusively working-class white grand tour, you’ll almost invariably see Caucasians from western Europe. The that they trained at altitude.” “The athletes who American journalist David Epstein also The idea that today’s riders couldn’t provided evidence for a fascinating possibly rival Armstrong’s supersonic thrived in that era were not theory in his ground-breaking book The climbing speeds irritates Tim Kerrison necessarily the most gifted but Sports Gene, what he calls ‘The Big Bang because of parallels with his time those who were prepared to do of Body Types’. Epstein postulates then coaching Australian swimmers. demonstrates that, over the decades, As Kerrison explains: “In 2008 and whatever it took to perform, professional sports have sifted out the 2009 swimming was fundamentally by whatever means” body types best suited to each discipline, changed through the introduction causing the general level to improve at a Tim Kerrison of a new generation of non-textile rate that a constellation of other factors swimsuits, which greatly reduced the can’t explain. As Epstein puts it: “Just as (hydrodynamic) drag of the swimmer, the galaxies are hurtling apart, so are the resulting in approximately two per cent “The biggest error, in my opinion, is to assume body parts required for success in a given sport improvements in times. Almost every world that there is a known limit of human capability,” speeding away from one another toward their record tumbled in 2009 and when the suits were Kerrison adds. “It would be an interesting exercise respective highly specialised and lonely corners banned at the end of 2009, there were many to engage experts from a range of scientific of the athletic physique universe.” claims that it would be decades before these disciplines to discuss what the limits of cycling However we measure them, then – with records were broken again. Based on historical performance might be but one thing I am very stopwatches, videos or power meters – we will rates of progression, it should have taken that long sure of is that we are not yet close to reaching discover that professional cyclists are getting faster but already one third of these records have been these limits. As a young coach and sport scientist, and more powerful at a greater rate than we surpassed. If anything, the brief introduction of I was taught that setting limits on performance perhaps could have anticipated. the high-tech swimsuits highlighted what was would only result in limited athletes. The last thing Meanwhile, the war of words between the possible. The event focused swimmers and their I want my riders thinking is that something they pseudo-scientists, the armchair experts, the coaches on the factors that can have the biggest are aiming to achieve is not physically possible. living-room detectives – whatever we decide to impact on performance and on finding legitimate “We must also consider that in the doping era call them – and their detractors will become ever ways to improve. of cycling, we didn’t necessarily see what the most louder. Louder and more contentious.

Jonathan Vaughters, manager of the Garmin-Sharp team, explains the sometimes inexact science of power calculation “The first thing you’re going to were – but the times just wind speed, rider position, air raw data we get from the SRM. establish is your ascension nosedived by about a minute pressure… These may only The guy who consistently seems speed, how long it takes to gain on average. And that was to do account for a small margin of the to be the most accurate is a certain altitude. From that you with the tarmac and the rolling final calculation but if you get a @ammattipyöräily on Twitter. can then calculate your Newton resistance. So, sure, there’s a few of them wrong and it causes He seems to take the steepest -metres, which is the force it massive difference but how do quite big mistakes. To get some portions of climbs, where takes to lift one kilogram, one you quantify that? of these variables nailed on, we’d everyone is spread out and the metre vertically, in one second. Then you consider that a have to go to a wind tunnel, get a drafting is minimal, and he evens One Newton metre equals one heavy rider is going to have a guy in his climbing position with it out from there. His numbers watt, so on that basis you can greater rolling resistance than a his jersey flapping, food in one tend to correlate with what we work out how many watts it lighter rider, that the riders have pocket, a water bottle on his bike, see on the power meters. You would take to do a certain climb their tyres inflated to different and climbing at 21kph… That’s have to be careful because some if you were riding in a vacuum. drafting? This is all very difficult pressures…It all starts to get a just one guy on one climb. We’ve climbs can, for instance, have So far so scientific but then to do. For example, look at the bit nebulous but that’s just the never done that and probably two kilometres of flat where the you get into the subjective stuff: difference in times on the rolling resistance. never will. body recovers and can produce what is the rolling resistance, air Ventoux when it was resurfaced Then you think about air So there’s a lot of guesswork anaerobic force again when the resistance, tailwind, headwind, in 2004. I mean, you can say that resistance, which is affected by involved but quite often the slope ramps up. Extrapolating temperature, the effect of we were all on EPO – which we temperature, wind direction, estimates are pretty close to the from that is going to be useless.”

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