UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE ARCTIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Applying NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis to Canadian Arctic Defence and Security 2020 FOREWORD FOREWORD This report by the North American and policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged. This pol- Arctic Defence and Security Network icy recognizes the need to enhance the (NAADSN) applies NATO’s Strategic Fore- CAF’s presence in the region over the sight Analysis (SFA) 2017 Report, created to long term by setting out the capability support NATO leadership’s visualization of investments that will give our armed the future security environment, to Cana- forces the mobility, reach, and foot- da’s Arctic security environment in its inter- print required to project force across the national, regional, and domestic contexts. region in ways that further our national Highlighting the rapid rate of change, interests. To be strong at home, we seek complexity, uncertainty, and interconnect- to defend the North and work with our edness, it reinforces the need for creative Arctic partners to plan and coordinate and systematic thinking so that the Cana- operations to enable defence, safety, dian Armed Forces (CAF) can anticipate and security in this austere environment. potential threats to Canada and Canadian interests, act proactively to emerging chal- This report, like the 2017 NATO SFA lenges, and adapt with decisive military Report that inspires it, is not intended to capability across the spectrum of opera- predict the future but to suggest poten- tions to defend Canada, protect Canadian tial trajectories for several trends and interests and values, and contribute to highlight their implications for the Cana- global stability. dian Defence Team, its partners, and its allies. Not everyone will agree with all The Arctic, integral to Canada and an ave- of the observations, suggestions, and nue of approach to North America, neces- potentialities suggested in this docu- sitates defence across all domains enabled ment, but offering them in a transpar- by partnerships. The CAF must be prepared ent format is useful to invite deeper to counter hostile foreign state and non- reflection, discussion, and debate. By state actors, or respond anywhere in our providing a foundation upon which vast area of responsibility (AOR) if help is to contemplate potential futures, this requested, whether intervention for disas- report seeks to propel future deliber- ter relief, support in critical incidents, or for ations beyond general descriptions of search and rescue in the region. well-documented trends and instead to encourage more coordinated strategies As the area’s strategic importance grows, to anticipate and respond to potential the Government of Canada continues to risks, seize opportunities, and develop increase its Arctic and Northern footprint an appropriate mix of capabilities to in support of defence safety, and security. respond to rapidly changing global and This effort is anchored in Canada’s defence Arctic environments. UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE ARCTIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Contents FOREWORD I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V INTRODUCTION IX 0.1 AIM IX 0.2 CONCEPT IX 0.3 OBJECTIVES XI 0.4 METHODOLOGY XI 0.5 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT XII 0.6 TERMINOLOGY XVIII 0.7 STRUCTURE XVIII CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FUTURE 1 1.1 GLOBAL CONTEXT: STRONG, SECURE, ENGAGED 2 1.2 THE CANADIAN ARCTIC: TOWARDS A WHOLE-OF-SOCIETY APPROACH 5 1.3 COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY 8 1.4 CONFLUENCE AND INTERCONNECTEDNESS 11 POLITICAL 15 2.1 SHIFTS IN GEOSTRATEGIC POWER 17 2.2 USE OF POWER POLITICS 19 2.3 DEVOLUTION OF GOVERNANCE AND RECONCILIATION WITH INDIGENOUS PEOPLES 23 2.4 NON-ARCTIC STATE AND NON-STATE ACTOR INFLUENCE IN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 26 2.5 REGIONAL GOVERNANCE ANDTHE INTERNATIONAL LEGAL REGIME 31 2.6 PUBLIC DISCONTENT/DISAFFECTION AND POLARIZATION 35 ENVIRONMENT 39 3.1 ENVIRONMENT 41 3.2 NATURAL DISASTERS 47 3.3 HUMAN-MADE DISASTERS 50 ii UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE ARCTIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT ECONOMICS AND RESOURCES 53 4.1 ARCTIC SHIPPING 54 4.2 RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 56 4.3 THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AS A RESOURCE: TOURISM 58 4.4 THE CONSERVATION ECONOMY 60 4.5 FISHERIES 62 HUMAN 65 5.1 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 67 5.2 SETTLEMENT PATTERNS AND URBANIZATION 69 5.3 INFRASTRUCTURE GAPS 71 5.4 SOCIAL AND HEALTH INEQUALITIES 73 5.5 HUMAN NETWORKS AND INCREASINGLY FRACTURED OR POLARIZED SOCIETIES 76 TECHNOLOGY 81 6.1 RATE OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT 81 6.2 UNMANNED AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS (UAS) 84 6.3 THE DEPENDENCY ON INDUSTRY TO PROVIDE TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS TO THE ARCTIC 85 6.4 TECHNOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT 86 6.5 TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY 88 6.6 OVER-RELIANCE ON TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS 89 CONCLUSIONS 93 ENDNOTES 95 APPENDIX: ARCTIC THEMES, TRENDS, AND IMPLICATIONS 97 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 104 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 114 IMAGE CREDITS 114 iii 2020 REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. This NAADSN activity adopts in October 2020. Although COVID-19 the NATO Strategic Foresight Analy- constraints forced changes to planned sis (SFA) 2017 model to help frame a engagement activities and delayed conceptual model that anticipates and the release of the report, the process conveys an understanding of the future demonstrated the response capabilities Canadian Arctic security environment, of NAADSN to anticipate and identify and to assess the applicability of its emerging risks and threats to Canada findings to Canadian Arctic defence and analyze these risks. and security policy. Our goal is to assist the Defence Team, the Government of 3. Canada’s defence policy, Strong, Canada more generally, and academic Secure, Engaged, highlights three key stakeholders in testing assumptions, security trends that will continue to focusing future lines of research effort, shape events: the evolving balance of and developing coordinated strategies power, the changing nature of conflict, to anticipate and respond to potential and the rapid evolution of technol- risks, as well as taking advantage of ogy. These trends have a direct bear- opportunities that arise from a com- ing when contemplating future Arctic plex security environment out to 2035. security environments, vulnerabilities, and requirements. Like the 2017 NATO 2. This project succeeded in SFA, this report visualizes a future Arc- achieving the main objectives of tic security environment characterized NAADSN’s Understanding the Future by a rapid rate of change, complexity, Arctic Security Environment assess- uncertainty, and interconnectedness. ment project, leveraging the exper- Most of the drivers and implications tise of the network team (members, identified in this report highlight “soft” postdoctoral and graduate fellows, security and safety challenges in the and student associates) in the draft- Arctic rather than “hard” military kinetic ing and review phases. A draft ver- threats to the Arctic, thus confirming sion was circulated to academic and the line of reasoning that has become government experts for feedback well entrenched in Canadian defence during the Advancing Collaboration planning over the last decade. in Canada-U.S. Arctic Regional Security (ACCUSARS) workshop, co-hosted with 4. This report retains the structure the Arctic Domain Awareness Center of the NATO SFA by organizing ideas (ADAC) in September 2020, and at a around main political, social, techno- series of small NAADSN virtual events logical, economic, and environmental UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE ARCTIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT trends. While this proved relevant to assessing 7. Environment. Environmental and Arctic defence and security futures, partici- ecological changes in the Canadian pants in the project (both authors and review- Arctic are being driven predominantly by ers of drafts) noted the limitations of a siloed climate change, which exacerbates emerg- approach that can conceal the cross-cutting ing regional challenges. The likelihood and nature of drivers and themes. Future work will prevalence of natural disasters is expected to further articulate the interaction of trends, increase, straining the capacities of all levels identify instability situations, and clarify impli- of government. Furthermore, the Canadian cations for defence and security practitioners. Arctic is at significant risk of human-made disasters that pose serious prospective 5. Political. The resurgence of great challenges for Northerners and federal and power competition, and particularly dynamics territorial governments. related to Chinese and Russian interests and activities, poses new or renewed risks related 8. Economics and Resources. Ship- to strategic delivery systems passing through ping activity in and through the Canadian or over the Arctic to reach targets outside of Arctic is increasing in volume, and there are the region. It may also bring new threats to signs of future interest by foreign actors. If or in the region, although these are likely to shipping in the region becomes more eco- take non-kinetic forms. In a complex security nomical, resources will represent a more environment char acterized by trans-regional, attractive development opportunity. Canada multi-domain, and multi-functional threats, will require foreign partners and significant Canada will continue to work with its allies to private sector investment to address its Arctic under stand the broader effects of the return infrastructure deficit, which raises concerns of major power competition to the interna- about foreign actors’ influence. Before COVID- tional system and to regions like the Arctic, 19, tourism was on the rise throughout the and what this