CHAPTER 5: PERSPECTIVES ON CANADA’S NORTH COAST REGION Lead Authors: James D. Ford (McGill University), Trevor Bell (Memorial University of Newfoundland) and Nicole J. Couture (Natural Resources Canada) Contributing Authors: David E. Atkinson (University of Victoria), Clara Champalle (McGill University), Ashlee Cunsolo Willox (Cape Breton University), Jackie Dawson (University of Ottawa), Marianne Falardeau-Côté (McGill University), Melanie Flynn (McGill University), Sherilee Harper (University of Guelph), Thomas S. James (Natural Resources Canada), Jolène Labbé (McGill University), Thierry Lanz (University of Victoria), Ian Mauro (University of Winnipeg), Erin Myers (Health Canada), Nicholas Ogden (Public Health Agency of Canada), Kathleen Parewick (Memorial University of Newfoundland), Tristan Pearce (University of Sunshine Coast), Boris Radosavljevic (Alfred Wegener Institute), Rudy Riedlsperger (Memorial University of Newfoundland), Jesse Sayles (Arizona State University) and Martin Tremblay (Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada) Recommended Citation: Ford, J.D., Bell, T. and Couture, N.J. (2016): Perspectives on Canada’s North Coast region; in Canada's Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate, (ed.) D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, T.S. James and C.S.L. Mercer Clarke; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, p. 153-206. Chapter 5 | PERSPECTIVES ON CANADA’S NORTH COAST REGION 153 TABLE OF CONTENTS KEY FINDINGS 155 3 VULNERABILITY 174 3.1 INFRASTRUCTURE AND 1 INTRODUCTION 156 TRANSPORTATION 174 3.1.1 BUILT ENVIRONMENT 174 2 CANADA’S NORTHERN COAST 156 3.1.2 SEMIPERMANENT TRAILS 177 3.2 HEALTH AND WELL-BEING 178 2.1 COMMUNITIES AND ECONOMY 157 3.3 BUSINESS AND ECONOMY 180 2.2 PHYSICAL SETTING 158 3.4 CULTURE AND EDUCATION 182 2.2.1 CLIMATE 158 3.5 SUBSISTENCE HARVESTING 184 2.2.2 GEOLOGY AND GEOMORPHOLOGY 158 2.2.3 PERMAFROST AND GROUND ICE 161 4 ADAPTATION PLANNING 2.2.4 SEA ICE 162 IN THE NORTH 185 2.2.5 WAVES AND STORM SURGES 162 4.1 EMERGENCE OF ADAPTATION 185 2.3 ECOSYSTEM SERVICES 165 4.2 CURRENT STATUS OF 2.4 CHANGES IN COASTAL ADAPTATION PLANNING 188 CONDITIONS AND PROCESSES 166 4.3 IDENTIFIED RESEARCH GAPS 2.4.1 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 166 ON ADAPTATION 190 2.4.2 SEA ICE 167 4.3.1 VULNERABILITY 190 2.4.3 STORM INTENSITY 169 4.3.2 ADAPTATION 190 2.4.4 SEA LEVEL AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS 169 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 190 2.4.5 PERMAFROST 171 2.5 INDIGENOUS OBSERVATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 171 6 REFERENCES 191 154 CANADA’S MARINE COASTS in a CHANGING CLIMATE KEY FINDINGS The environment and socio-economic characteristics of the northern coast are unique. Inhabited primarily by Indigenous populations living in small remote communities, Canada’s northern coastline is vast, representing more than 70% of all Canadian coasts. The presence of sea ice is a defining feature of this coast, affecting transportation access, shaping geomorphological processes and providing a platform for culturally valued and economically important harvesting activities. Social, economic and demographic characteristics of northern coastal communities differ considerably from the Canadian average, with resource development and public administration being mainstays of northern economies. The northern coast is a hotspot for global climate change. The region has experienced some of the most rapid climate change anywhere on the globe, and projected future climate changes for the northern coastline will continue to be significant. Impacts on the physical environment include declining sea-ice concentration, earlier ice break-up and later freeze-up, a lengthening of the ice-free open-water season, permafrost warming and thaw, coastal erosion, sea-level rise and changing weather patterns, including wind and waves. Northern coastal communities, ecosystems and economic activities are being affected by climate change impacts. Many communities have a high sensitivity to climate change impacts, as they are situated on low-lying coasts and have infrastructure built on permafrost, economies strongly linked to natural resources and dependence on land-based harvesting activities. Negative impacts of climate change on a variety of sectors have been widely documented across the northern coast. New opportunities associated with a longer ice-free shipping season are also recognized, but increased marine traffic also brings risks. Climate change will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Vulnerability differs significantly by region and community and, within communities, as a function of geographic location, nature of climate change impacts and human factors. Capacity to manage climate change is high in some sectors, such as subsis- tence harvesting and health, but is being undermined by long-term societal changes. In other sectors, such as infrastructure, limitations in climate risk-management capacity (e.g., institutional, financial, regula- tory) result in continuing high vulnerabilities. Northern coastal communities and industries are adapting. Adaptation actions are already taking place in the North, with examples of adaptation planning documented across all levels of government. The effectiveness and sufficiency of the existing responses have not been evaluated, although barriers to adaptation, including limited resources, institutional capacity and a lack of ‘usable’ research, have been identified. Publicly available information on how the private sector is approaching adaptation is limited. Opportunities for additional adaptation are diverse. Mainstreaming adaptation into ongoing policy initiatives and priorities to address underlying socio-cultural determinants of vulnerability can help address the risks posed by climate change to harvesting activities, culture and health. Adaptation actions targeted at specific climatic risks are also required, particularly to manage the impacts of climate change on community and industrial infrastructure. Chapter 5 | PERSPECTIVES ON CANADA’S NORTH COAST REGION 155 1 INTRODUCTION Sector-specific studies focused on northern Canada: These studies provide in-depth focus on Canada’s northern coasts are experiencing dramatic specific subsectors in northern regions, characterizing changes in climate. Climate models project that they current understanding of impacts, adaptation and will experience some of the most pronounced climate vulnerability, and identifying future research priorities, changes of any region in the world (see Chapter 2; Anisi- including assessments of health (Furgal and Seguin, mov et al., 2007; Prowse and Furgal, 2009; Larsen et al., 2006) and built infrastructure (Ford et al., 2014c). 2014). Changes in temperature and precipitation trends, These comprehensive reviews provide a broad sea-ice conditions and shifts in seasonality are widely understanding of climate change impacts, vulnerability documented, as are implications for traditional lifestyles, and adaptation in northern Canada. This chapter comple- health, sovereignty, security, resource development and ments and updates these earlier assessments, focusing infrastructure (Furgal and Prowse, 2008; Prowse and Furgal, specifically on coastal areas of Canada’s north and with a 2009; Ford et al., 2012b). strong emphasis on communities and economies. It A rapid increase in research focusing on the biophysical addresses the physical setting and processes that make and human dimensions of climate change on northern coasts communities and environments of the North Coast region has taken place during the last decade, and a number of particularly sensitive to changing climate, emphasising assessments, literature reviews and gap analyses have been sea-ice reduction, permafrost thaw and rising sea level as conducted to examine current understanding. These key drivers of change. Discussion of current and potential reports can be grouped as follows: vulnerabilities of socio-economic sectors reflects the focus Arctic-wide assessments: These reviews focus on of available literature on the built environment (particularly the Arctic as a whole, with information on northern in isolated communities and related to transportation); Canadian coasts contained within specific chapters. subsistence and emerging resource economies; community They include the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment health, well-being and culture; and traditional livelihoods. (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2005), reports from The chapter concludes with reviews of adaptation planning the International Polar Year (Kulkarni et al., 2012), the ‘Polar Regions’ chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel in the North Coast region and knowledge gaps that may on Climate Change assessment reports (Anisimov et al., constrain adaptation actions. Although Canada’s northern 2007; Larsen et al., 2014), the Human Health in the coast is home to diverse cultural heritages, including First Arctic report (AMAP, 2009), the State of the Arctic Nations, Inuit, Métis and non-Indigenous, the North Coast Coast 2010 report (Forbes, 2011), the Arctic Marine chapter has a strong focus on Inuit, again reflecting the Shipping Assessment 2009 Report (Arctic Council, available literature. 2009), the Arctic Human Development Report I (Arctic Human Development Report, 2004) and Arctic Human Development Report II (Larsen et al., 2015), and the Arctic 2 CANADA’S NORTHERN COAST Resilience Interim Report 2013 (Arctic Council, 2013). Canada’s northern coastline is vast, extending more Canada-wide assessments: These reviews focus than 176 000 km from the Yukon in the west to Labrador in on documenting the state of knowledge on climate the east, and