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Cash Call Invitational– Grade 3

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Cash Call Invitational– Grade 3 Race 8 Sunday 6/7/20 Triple Bend Stakes #2 Ax Man – minimum win betting odds 9/5 #1 Flagstaff – minimum win betting odds 5/2 #6 McKinzie – minimum win betting odds – none (prohibitive favorite) Exacta: Box 1,2 Ax Man is a KEY BET on the day, even in a five horse field. Because McKinzie opens at 3 to 5, Ax Man opens at 8 to 1, but he’s a proven sprinter and McKinzie is not. Sure, McKinzie broke his maiden at this seven furlong trip, but that was when he was a two year old in 2017. He also won the Malibu Stakes at the trip in the winter of 2018, but that was for three year olds only. He can win, but since his eight races since the Malibu were all routes, he may not be as sharp at Ax Man, and for that matter Flagstaff, who is another proven sprinter. McKinzie is also returning from three months off, having travelled half- way across the world to run in Saudi Arabia. Even his two races prior to that showed he may have lost a step, as he lost ground in the stretch in both the Awesome Again and Breeder’s Cup Classic. He also couldn’t beat the late Battle of Midway in the Santa Pasqual and he couldn’t beat Gift Box in the Santa Anita Handicap. In short, he doesn’t have the kind of winning spirit I want in a prohibitive favorite. There, I’ve said it. Ax Man ran a race on 2/8/19, at this trip at SA, which wins if repeated. He battled head-and-head through a sizzling 22 second quarter and 44 second half mile then drew off in 121.8 to earn a 121 Equibase figure. The figure is AS GOOD AS the best McKinzie has ever earned, winning the Whitney last year and finishing second in the Met Mile. Cedillo is very likely going to send Ax Man to the front, as Flagstaff, inside of him, doesn’t want the lead, and from there it’s Ax Man’s race to lose, particularly on the Cut Back from a mile to seven furlongs, just three weeks ago, which gives him some excellent stamina in the late stages. Flagstaff won the identical San Carlos Stakes in March as the even money favorite and then closed like a rocket from 11th to 2nd in the Count Fleet at Oaklawn in April. Espinoza has guided him to a first or second place finish in seven of his last eight and he has every right to be there at the wire with his Palos Verdes runner-up effort in January earning a career best 116 figure. McKinzie has to be used on pick 3, pick 4 or double tickets played but I’m taking a stand against him otherwise. He’s been training well and can win but has about a 9/5 chance and will be the odds-on favorite at post time. Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper Other racing content Weekend Stakes Blog at https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/ Weekend Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast at amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free Free Selection for one free race daily at: Keeneland - keeneland.com/racing/wagering/expert-picks/Ellis Starr Santa Anita - santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr Woodbine - https://woodbine.com/handicapping/ellis-starr/ .
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