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World Bank Document WOr [DBr3/K II N 'MrLfj' VI x - Cott'onr Production Prospects Public Disclosure Authorized for the Decade to 2005 A Global Overview Hamdy M. Eisa, Shawki Barghouti, Fred Gillham, and M. Tawhid Al-Saffy Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ~jj4 i~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~z Public Disclosure Authorized ...... , RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS No. 163 Shilling, editor, Beyond SyndicatedLoans: Sources of Creditfor DevelopingCountries No. 164 Schwartzand Kampen,Agricultitral Extensioni inr East Africa No. 165 Kellaghanand Greaney, UsingExaminations to lmproveEducation: A Study in FozaricenAfrican Counttrics No. 166 Ahmad and Kutcher, IrrigationPlanning with EnivironmlnentalConisiderations: A CaseStudy of Pakistan'sIndus Basin No. 167 Liese,Sachdeva, and Cochrane, Organizingand Mataging Tropical Disease Conttrol Progranms: CaseStudies No. 168 Barlow, McNelis, and Derrick, SolarPumiping: An Introductionand Updatcon the Tecinology, Performnnce,Costs and Economics No. 169 Westoff, Age at Marriage,Age at First Birth,and Fertility in Africa No. 170 Sung and Troia, Developmenjtsin Debt ConversionPrograms and ConversionActivities No. 171 Brown and Nooter, SuccessfuiSmall-Scale Irrigation in the Sahel No. 172 Thomas and Shaw, IssUesin the Developmentof Multigrade Schools No. 173 Byrnes, Water UsersAssociation in World Bank-Assisted IrrigationProjects in Pakistan No. 174 Constant and Sheldrick,World Nitrogen Survey No. 175 Le Moigneand others, editors,Country Experiences twith Water Resources Management: Economic, Institutional,Technological and EnvironmentalIssues No. 176 TheWorld Bank/FAO/UNIDO/industry FertilizerWorking Group, Worldand Regional Supply anidDemand BalanscesforNitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash,1990/92-1996197 No. 177 Adams, 7he World Bank's Treatmentof Employment and LaborMarket Issues No. 178 Le Moigne, Barghouti, and Garbus, editors, Developingand Improving Irrigationand Drainage Systems: SelectedPapersffrom World Bank Scminars No. 179 Speirs and Olsen, IndigenousIntegrated Farming Systems in tite Sahel No. 180 Barghouti, Garbus, and Umali, editors, Trends in Agricultural DiversiJication:Regional Perspectives No. 181 Mining Unit,Industry and EnergyDivision, Strategyfor Africani Mining No. 182 Land Resources Unit, Asia Technical Department, Strategyfor ForestSector Developmentin Asia No. 183 Najera, Liese, and Hanmmer,Malaria: New Patternsand Perspectives No. 184 Crosson and Anderson, Resourcesand GlobalFood Prospects: Supply and Demandfor Cerealsto 2030 No. 185 Frederiksen, DroughitPlanning and Water EfficiencyInmplications in Water ResourcesManagement No. 186 Guislain, Divestiture of State Enterprises:An Overviewof the LegalFramework No. 187 De Geyndt, Zhao, and Liu, FromnBarefoot Doctor to VillageDoctor in Rural China No. 188 Silverman, Public Sector Decentralization:Economic Policy and SectorInvestment Programs No. 189 Frederick, BalancingWater Demandswith Supplies:77e Roleof Managementin a World of Increasing Scarcity No. 190 Mackilin,Agricultural Extension in India No. 191 Frederiksen,Water Resources Institutions; Some Princips andPractices No. 192 McMillan,Painter, and Scudder,Settlement and Developmnent in the RiverBlindness Control Zone No. 193 Braatz, ComservingBioogical Diversity A Strategyfor ProtectedAres in the Asia-PacificRegion No. 194 Saint, Universitiesin Africa:Strategiesfor Stabilization and Revitalization No. 195 Ochs and Bishay,Drainage Guidelines No. 196 Mabogunje, Perspectiveon UrbanLand and Land ManagementPolicies in Sub-SaharanAfrica No. 197 Zymelhnan, editor, Assessing EngineeringEducation in Sub-SaharanAfrica (list continueson the insideback cover) WORLDBANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 231 Cotton Production Prospects for the Decade to 2005 A Global Overview Hamdy M. Eisa, Shawld Barghouti, Fred Gillham, and M. Tawhid Al-Saffy The WorldBank Washigton, D.C. Copyright © 1994 The Intemational Bankfor Reconstruction and Development/THEWORLD BANK 1818H Street, N.W. Washington,D.C. 20433, U.S.A. ARrights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America Firstprinting February1994 TechnicalPapers are published to communicatethe results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possibledelay. The typescriptof this paper thereforehas not been prepared in accordancewith the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bankaccepts no responsibilityfor errors. Some sources cited in this paper may be infornal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations,and conclusionsexpressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank,to its affiliatedorgaizations, or to members of its Board of ExecutiveDirectors or the countries they represent The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracyof the data included in this publication and acceptsno responsibilitywhatsoever for any consequenceof their use. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and oher informationshown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World BankGroup any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptanceof such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted.Requests for permissio to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Officeof the Publisher at the address shown in the copyright notice above.The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permissio promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercialpurposes, without asking a fee.Permission to copy portions for classroomuse is granted through the Copyright ClearanceCenter, hInc,Suite 910,222Rosewood Drive, Danvers, Massachusetts01923, U.S.A. The complete backlist of publicationsfrom the World Bankis shown in the annual IndexofPuts, which contains an alphabetical title list (with fuUordering information)and indexes of subjects,authors, and countries and regions.The latest edition is availablefree of charge from the DistributionUnit, OffiCe of the Publisher,The World Bank, 1818H Street, N.W.,Washington, D.C 20433,USA, or from Publications,The World Bank 66, avenue d'Idna, 75116Paris, France. ISSN:0253-7494 All of the authors are affiliatedwith the World Bank.At the time this paper was written, Hamdy Ml Eisa was principal agriculturalist in the AgriculturalTedcology and ServicesDivision of the Agriculture and Natural Reources Department He is curretly with SouthAsia-Cotmtry Department I in the World Bank Field Officein New Delhi, India. ShawWiBarshouti is division chief of the Agdcuhe Operations Divisionof South Asia-Country Department II Fred Giam and M. Tawhid Al-Saffyare consultants to AgriculturalTechnology and ServicesDivision of the Agrculture and Natual Resources Departnent. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData Cotton production prospects for the decade to 2005 : a global overview / Hamdy MNEisa ... [et aLl. p. cm. - (World Banktechnical paper, ISSN0253-7494 ; no. 231) Includes bibliographicalreferences. ISBN0-8213-2715-1 1. Cotton growing. 2. Cotton trade. L Eisa, Hamdy NL,1938- IL Series. HD90705.C74 1993 338.1'7351-dc2O 93-43822 CEP Contents Introduction I 1 EconomicImportce of Cotton S 2 Stctr of the Cotton Industry 7 Distriution of CottonProduction Areas 7 CottonProduction Systems 7 Marketng Seedcottonand CottonLint 8 3 Cotton Policy 9 Intrduction and Couty Classification 9 Category1: United States,Turkey and Brazi 9 Category2: China, Centra Asia and Egypt 12 Category3: India and Pakistan 17 Sourcesof Information 19 4 Cotton Production 21 ConditionsRequired for Cotton Production 21 impactof Yield an WorldCotton Production 21 Production 21 Varieties 25 tegrted Pest Malagement (1PM) 26 Reserch 28 Economicsof Technology 32 3 Consumptiomand Production Outlook 35 Wodd ConsumptionProjections to 2005 36 Pice and Income ElasticitiesConained in the EmpiricalStudy 35 Wodd ProductionProjections to 2005 43 Price Projectio 46 EfficiencyFactos 47 ProductionProset and Rural Diversification 50 6 Conclusicns 53 Appendix I Regional Producdon and Consumpton Projectons 57 Appenicx I Country Coto Producon and COnS on Projecons 61 Appendix m U.S. Cotton Programs and Farm Policy 87 References 10S Glossary 113 fli) Acknowledgments Mhe auhors wish to thakthe follow people for their substantia conution to his publication HeshamulHuque asisted in Xh comilaion of basic toeical inomnation. M. ElN Th e. asdsted withthe chapteron Consumptionad ProductionOudooL Tom Bdliw the outside reviewe who asited with the Production and Conumpton projection, Poliy secton ad revieweddw entiredocumenL Lisa Garbusedited an ealy draft. Eric Meyer edked nd prepaed the final docume. (IV) Foreword Cottonplays a vital multisectoralrole in the economiesof many developingcounies. It is a major foreign exchangeearner and a valuablecasb crop for mny smallholderfarmers, thus conuting to efforts to increase farmer in"omes. Cotton is a major source of fiber for the textile ad appar industries.as well as a valuablesource of protein for food and animalfeed. Over the past decades, performancepaterns amongdfferent countries' cotton indusies have divergedwidely. Someindustries have experienceddecline or stagnation,whereas athes have expaded rapidly. Globally,cotton industries are facingseveral strategicchaUenges that affectnot onilycotos competitivenesswith man-made fibers in the textile industry, but also its profitabilityand the sustainabilityof production,even in countrieswith a dynamiccotton industry. A majorconcern in any countriesis that as populaon pressuresnecessitate
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