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January Report 2019 Contents intelligence January Report 2019 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 A Glance at Indian tourists' spending habits 06 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 07 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 09 Currency Trends 11 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 13 France 14 United Kingdom 15 Italy 16 Spain 17 Germany 18 Austria 19 Finland 20 Portugal 21 Ireland 22 Czech Republic 23 Planet International Calendar 24 January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 2 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - January 2019 Top 5 Destination Markets +1% Total Sales Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers France +5% -3% +8% -5% United Kingdom -1% -8% +8% +2% Italy +6% +9% -3% 0% -2% Total Vouchers Spain -3% +14% -14% +7% Germany -11% -10% -2% -3% Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers +3% Total ATV China +8% +1% +8% +32% USA +21% +7% +13% +6% Russia -22% -18% -5% -10% Taiwan +51% +4% +45% +21% +1% South Korea +6% +4% +2% -2% Total Arrivals January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD Top 5 Destination Markets +1% Total Sales Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers France +5% -3% +8% -5% United Kingdom -1% -8% +8% +2% Italy +6% +9% -3% 0% -2% Total Vouchers Spain -3% +14% -14% +7% Germany -11% -10% -2% -3% Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers +3% Total ATV China +8% +1% +8% +32% USA +21% +7% +13% +6% Russia -22% -18% -5% -10% Taiwan +51% +4% +45% +21% +1% South Korea +6% +4% +2% -2% Total Arrivals January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 4 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends – January 2019 Overview Sterling hits two-month high The start of the year saw a modest lift in Tax Free shopping against euro and US dollar sales, increasing 1% year-on-year in January 2019. This marks the fourth consecutive month of growth, mirroring despite Brexit uncertainty the 1% growth registered in in January 2018. The strength of the pound has taken an upward turn, Markets in Germany and Spain have been the main with sterling currently enjoying a two-month high contributors to the tepid growth this month. Spain against the euro and the US dollar. saw a drop in the average transaction value (ATV) of its international shoppers, causing a sales decline of 3%. Sales On the morning of Wednesday 6th February, the pound in Germany dropped by 11%, partly as a result of a decrease traded above $1.30 (€1.14) – a move that many currency in the overall number of transactions. analysts linked to the increased likelihood of a delayed Brexit. In addition, there is renewed optimism that But against all odds, France posted 5% year-on-year British politicians are considering active measures to growth. This will be welcomed by many retailers who have avoid a no-deal Brexit. suffered after two consecutive months of decline, likely driven by the effects of the political ‘Gilets Jaunes’ protests. The cross-government endorsement of a proposal to postpone the current deadline was welcomed by The outlook for arrival numbers for the first quarter of 2019 Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, who said the is modest but positive, with a predicted 1% increase. Most proposal was a "sensible" way of preventing a worrying European countries will experience growth, with the no-deal exit. The currency market appeared to have exception of France, which can expect a 3% reacted positively to the stalemate that has left year-on-year decline. Parliament in limbo since the January 15th vote. However, although the Pound has strengthened over Y/Y Sales Growth 2018 2019 the past month, it is still considerably weaker than 30% it was before the Brexit vote. Sterling has fallen by i 25% 19% since the EU referendum . This is something that tourists from countries such as the US have capitalised 20% on. Tax Free sales to US shoppers increased by 17% 15% year-on-year for the month of January – far above the 10% -1% total performance of the United Kingdom. While this two-month uptick may signal green shoots for the 5% pound, the currency has a long way to go to regain its 0% former strength. -5% -10% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ihttps://www.finder.com/uk/brexit-pound January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 5 A glance at Indian tourists’ spending habits We have seen a considerable increase in Tax Free sales Indian Tourist Sales Growth: Europe to Indian tourists over the past few years, which is unsurprising considering the sustained boom of the emerging economy, and India being the world’s largest 41.8% democracy with a population of 1.3 billion people. The 32.0% country boasts the eleventh-highest number of high-net- worth individuals (HNWI), the fastest growing in the world in terms of HNWI population expansion in 2017ii. The country ranks eleventh for its amount of millionaires and third for 24.4% its number of billionairesiii. 10.7% 5.9% Tax Free shopping spend by Indian shoppers has gone from strength to strength, posting double-digit growth four years in a row. Growth only slowed to 5.9% last year as a result of a weakened rupee-euro rate. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Indian tourists have a strong desire to visit Europe, with just under half preferring to travel to the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Other top travel destinations ATV by Age Group Sales Mix by age group for Indian tourists include the Arab Gulf nations, Italy, Switzerland and Turkeyiv. €942 Gen Z 1% Baby Boomers The older generation of Indian shoppers topped the 14% €787 spending the chart, with Baby Boomers parting with 42% more in ATV compared with India’s Gen-Z shoppers. €678 However, it is shoppers from Gen-X and Gen-Y who shop the most overall, with sales from these two age bands €546 equating to 85% of all Tax Free sales to Indian shoppers. Gen Y 41% Arrivals of Indian tourists to Europe for the months of January through to March 2019 look set to outperform the overall market, posting a projected 3.1% year-on-year Gen X increase in arrivals versus a forecasted 1.1% for total Baby Boomers 44% Gen X arrivals to the continent. Gen Y Gen Z iiCapgemini World Wealth report 2018 iiiHurun Global Rich List 2018 ivOxford economics 2018 2018 January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 6 Sales Performance - January 2019 By Destination By Source Market FRA +5.1% CHN +8.4% GBR -1.0% USA +20.9% ITA +6.2% RUS -21.7% ESP -2.6% TWN +50.6% DEU -11.3% KOR +5.6% AUT -4.8% HKG -31.2% PRT -13.2% KWT +2.4% CZE -15.7% UAE -3.9% IRL +4.6% QAT +30.8% CHE -20.8% THA -0.3% January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 7 Sales Performance - YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA +5.1% CHN +8.4% GBR -1.0% USA +20.9% ITA +6.2% RUS -21.7% ESP -2.6% TWN +50.6% DEU -11.3% KOR +5.6% AUT -4.8% HKG -31.2% PRT -13.2% KWT +2.4% CZE -15.7% UAE -3.9% IRL +4.6% QAT +30.8% CHE -20.8% THA -0.3% January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 8 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country – January 2019 Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 33% € 1,952 +23% AUT RUSSIA 19% € 416 -31% USA 9% € 1,339 +27% CHINA 14% € 632 +9% TAIWAN 7% € 2,984 +95% SWITZERLAND 9% € 408 -16% SOUTH KOREA 5% € 673 -3% UKRAINE 7% € 442 -9% HONG KONG 4% € 3,013 -54% TAIWAN 7% € 651 +127% GBR CHINA 21% € 443 -3% PRT BRAZIL 30% € 408 -9% KUWAIT 9% € 339 +4% ANGOLA 26% € 481 +15% UAE 6% € 552 -4% CHINA 12% € 1,077 -48% QATAR 6% € 789 +17% USA 4% € 1,030 +227% USA 6% € 502 +17% MOZAMBIQUE 4% € 462 +18% ITA CHINA 21% € 1,056 -7% CZE RUSSIA 32% € 302 -35% RUSSIA 15% € 657 -11% TAIWAN 20% € 233 +23% USA 8% € 1,004 +19% CHINA 13% € 287 +1% JAPAN 4% € 821 +22% ISRAEL 5% € 200 +4% TAIWAN 4% € 1,176 +24% SOUTH KOREA 4% € 188 -37% ESP CHINA 21% € 678 +10% IRL CHINA 38% € 424 -4% RUSSIA 9% € 388 -19% USA 23% € 198 +15% USA 7% € 614 +10% AUSTRALIA 5% € 175 -9% SOUTH KOREA 6% € 327 +49% UAE 5% € 408 +70% MOROCCO 5% € 263 -9% MALAYSIA 4% € 294 -2% DEU CHINA 31% € 732 -5% CHE CHINA 15% € 1,370 -48% RUSSIA 13% € 424 -25% RUSSIA 12% € 1,236 -25% THAILAND 6% € 1,037 +20% UAE 10% € 2,868 +40% SWITZERLAND 4% € 344 -5% USA 6% € 1,509 -21% TAIWAN 3% € 413 -22% THAILAND 6% € 1,186 +47% January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 9 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country – YTD Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 33% € 1,952 +23% AUT RUSSIA 19% € 416 -31% USA 9% € 1,339 +27% CHINA 14% € 632 +9% TAIWAN 7% € 2,984 +95% SWITZERLAND 9% € 408 -16% SOUTH KOREA 5% € 673 -3% UKRAINE 7% € 442 -9% HONG KONG 4% € 3,013 -54% TAIWAN 7% € 651 +127% GBR CHINA 21% € 443 -3% PRT BRAZIL 30% € 408 -9% KUWAIT 9% € 339 +4% ANGOLA 26% € 481 +15% UAE 6% € 552 -4% CHINA 12% € 1,077 -48% QATAR 6% € 789 +17% USA 4% € 1,030 +227% USA 6% € 502 +17% MOZAMBIQUE 4% € 462 +18% ITA CHINA 21% € 1,056 -7% CZE RUSSIA 32% € 302 -35% RUSSIA 15% € 657 -11% TAIWAN 20% € 233 +23% USA 8% € 1,004 +19% CHINA 13% € 287 +1% JAPAN 4% € 821 +22% ISRAEL 5% € 200 +4% TAIWAN 4% € 1,176 +24% SOUTH KOREA 4% € 188 -37% ESP CHINA 21% € 678 +10% IRL CHINA 38% € 424 -4% RUSSIA 9% € 388 -19% USA 23% € 198 +15% USA 7% € 614 +10% AUSTRALIA 5% € 175 -9% SOUTH KOREA 6% € 327 +49% UAE 5% € 408 +70% MOROCCO 5% € 263 -9% MALAYSIA 4% € 294 -2% DEU CHINA 31% € 732 -5% CHE CHINA 15% € 1,370 -48% RUSSIA 13% € 424 -25% RUSSIA 12% € 1,236 -25% THAILAND 6% € 1,037 +20% UAE 10% € 2,868 +40% SWITZERLAND 4% € 344 -5% USA 6% € 1,509 -21% TAIWAN 3% € 413 -22% THAILAND 6% € 1,186 +47% January Report 2019 Planet Intelligence | 10 Currency
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