Wherenextfor Public Cryptocurrency?
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MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Where next for public cryptocurrency? KPMG LLP UK Blockchain Centre of Excellence March 2018 CROP MARKS CROP kpmg.com/uk MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Contents Executive summary 2 Cryptocurrencies: market 3 overview Major cryptocurrencies 5 Classification of money 7 Recent governmental 9 responses to cryptocurrencies Market developments in 11 banking and payments Key risks associated with 12 cryptocurrencies Strategic considerations for 13 central banks Advantages and risks of 14 issuing CBDCs for central banks Appendices 15 CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Content page Executive summary • The market proliferation of cryptocurrencies has been fuelled by speculation and tokenisation, namely through the launch of initial coin offerings (ICOs). • Governmental and regulatory responses to cryptocurrencies vary geographically and are constantly evolving. • The private sector is also investing heavily in blockchain and cryptocurrencies. • Cryptocurrencies introduce new risks, including cyber crime; smart contract security; systemic risk; and sovereign risk. • There are a number of advantages and risks associated with the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). The issuance of CBDCs could transform central banks’ current functions. CROP MARKS CROP 2 MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Cryptocurrencies: market overview The previous 12-18 months have seen cryptocurrencies garner significant attention from the media, financial analysts, governments, regulatory institutions and investors. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are underpinned by blockchain technology. Blockchain functions as a database and/or an accounting system to track the ownership and transfer of tokens from one party to another in the absence of traditional financial intermediaries. Blockchain was the first of many Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLTs) to be developed. Primary market $4bn An increasing number raised of start-ups are through launching ICOs to raise $189bn ICOs significant capital global IPO IPO ICO proceeds in 2017 More than 1,500 cryptocurrencies (March 2018) Regulation of ICOs is immature. Reception of ICOs 66 is largely worrisome cryptocurrencies from authorities in 2013 CROP MARKS CROP 3 MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Cryptocurrencies are broadly defined as digital assets in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of any central bank. Secondary market CAGR growth of approx. Start-ups have 166% launched exchanges to between 2014 enable trading of and 2018 existing coins Combined market cap for all cryptocurrencies stood at US$800bn (Jan 2018 – Bitconnect) Bitcoin had a approx. Coinmarketcap.com collates data from 35% over share of the cryptocurrency 182 market in Jan exchanges 2018 CROP MARKS CROP 4 MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Major cryptocurrencies Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation (as at 16 January 2018): Bitcoin Ethereum Bitcoin Cash Ripple Litecoin (BTC) (ETH) (BCH) (XRP) (LTC) Bitcoin is a digital Officially launched in Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, released in Litecoin was cryptocurrency 2015, Ethereum is a launched in July 2012, is a launched in 2011 and comprised of decentralised 2017, is a fork of the cryptocurrency that is considered to be processed data computing platform Bitcoin blockchain uses a ‘global the ‘silver’ to blocks. Launched in that features its own ledger, with consensus ledger’. bitcoin’s ‘gold’, due 2009, it was the first Turing-complete upgraded consensus The Ripple protocol is to its more plentiful decentralised peer- programming rules that allow it to used by institutional total supply of 84 to-peer payment language. The grow and scale. actors such as large million LTC. It network that is blockchain records Further, people banks. A function of borrows the main powered by its users scripts or contracts holding Bitcoin when the token XRP is to concepts from with no central that are run and Bitcoin Cash was serve as a bridge Bitcoin but has authority or executed by every created automatically currency between altered some key middlemen. participating node, became owners of national currencies parameters (e.g. the and are activated Bitcoin Cash. that are rarely traded mining algorithm is through payments and to prevent spam based on Scrypt with the attacks. instead of Bitcoin’s cryptocurrency SHA-265). ‘Ether’. US$0.06 (2009) US$2.83 (2015) US$413.1 (2017) US$0.005 (2012) US$4.35 (2011) value: Launch Launch US$12,059.9 US$1,086.2 US$1,929.9 US$1.36 US$200.1 value: Current Current CROP MARKS CROP 5 MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Dash NEM Monero Ethereum IOTA (DASH) (XEM) (XMR) Classic (ETS) (MIOTA) DASH, launched in NEM is a peer-to-peer Launched in 2014, Ethereum Classic, Launched in 2016, 2014, is a cryptocurrency and Monero is a system launched in July IOTA is an open- cryptocurrency blockchain platform that aims to provide 2015, is a source distributed focused on privacy. launched in March anonymous digital continuation of the ledger. It uses a In addition to offering 2015. Its stated cash using ring original Ethereum directed acyclic all the features of objective is a wide signatures, blockchain, featuring graph (DAG) instead Bitcoin, DASH also distribution model. It confidential smart contract of blockchain. It has advanced has introduced new transactions and (scripting) claims to be able to capabilities, including features to blockchain stealth addresses to functionality. It address the instant transactions technology, such as obfuscate the origin, provides a scalability and (InstantSend), private its proof-of- transaction amount decentralised Turing- transaction cost transactions importance (POI) and destination of complete virtual concerns inherent in (PrivateSend), and algorithm, transacted coins. It machine, the other distributed decentralised multisignature saw a substantial Ethereum Virtual ledger technologies governance (DGBB). accounts, encrypted increase in market Machine (EVM), that are based on a messaging, and an value in 2016. which can execute blockchain. Eigentrust++ scripts using an reputation system. international network of public nodes. US$0.214 (2014) US$0.0004 (2015) US$2.47 (2014) US$0.752 (2015) US$0.638 (2016) US$796.4 US$1.11 US$343.2 US$32.48 US$2.99 CROP MARKS CROP 6 MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Classification of money Clarification of terms: Virtual Currency (VC): Digital Currency (DC): a digital representation of a digital asset with monetary value, ordinarily issued and characteristics. DCs are considered controlled by its developers. to fall within the definition of a VC if VCs are not issued by central it is denominated in non-fiat units of banks, credit institutions, or value, or if it is issued in a e-money institutions, decentralised way. It is a meaning they are seldom combination of two elements: an regulated. In some asset and an exchange mechanism. circumstances, VCs can be Commercial bank deposits and e- used to pay for goods and money are types of digital currency. services and can therefore be Digital currency that is issued by a seen as an alternative to central bank is defined as a ‘Central money. Bank Digital Currency’ (CBDC). Key: Electronic Peer-to-peer (no intermediaries) Liability of the central bank Universally accessible (easy to obtain, easy to use) Liability of the issuer (financial institution, local government, company, or group) Settlement Cryptocurrency CBDC (private Centralised virtual accounts Reserve (private sector, sector, wholesale) currency accounts wholesale) Deposited currency CBDC Commercial bank Cryptocurrency accounts (not (public sector, deposits, (privately created) available) retail) E-money Cash Commodity money Local currency CROP MARKS CROP 7 MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP MARGIN CROP MARKS CROP Properties of money versus cryptocurrency Property of money Cryptocurrency does have the property Cryptocurrency does not have the property Fungibility: Most digital currencies allow greater divisibility than Some argue that Bitcoin doesn’t satisfy this, as the Individual units must fiat currencies. history of each coin is visible. Some users might refuse be interchangeable to accept ‘dirty money’, or coins whose lineage could reduce anonymity. Durability: Digital currencies are durable as long as the ledger is It is possible that ‘miners’ or validators of transactions Able to withstand maintained, and ledger storage sizes are widely lose the incentive to maintain the ledger. repeated use manageable. Coins of limited supply could succumb to ‘entropy’, where access to coins is lost forever; coins are forgotten about; or countless transactions leave minute denominations of coin behind (‘dust’). Portability: Transported via the internet. Arguably crypto-wallets are not user-friendly; user Easily carried and Portable through online wallets, mobile wallets, hard- experience needs to be improved to enable