the state of food and agriculture 1973 SPECIAL CHAPTERS In addition to the usual review of the recent world food and agriculture situation, each issue of this report from 1957 has included one or more special studies of problems of longer term interest. Special chapters in earlier issues have covered the following subjects: Factors influencing the trend of food consumption Postwar changes in some institutional factors affecting agriculture Food and agricultural developments in Africa south of the Sahara The growth of forest industries and their impact on the world's forests Agricultural incomes and levels of living in countries at different stages of economic development Some general problems of agricultural development in less developed countries in the light of postwar experience 19( Programing for agricultural development 19 Land reform and institutional change Agricultural extension, education and research in Africa, Asia and Latin America The role of forest industries in the attack on economic underdevelopment The livestock industry in less developed countries Basic factors affecting the growth of productivity in agriculture Fertilizer use: spearhead of agricultural development Protein nutrition: needs and prospects Synthetics and their effects on international trade Agriculture and industrialization Rice in the world food economy Incentives and disincentives for farmers in developing countries The management of fishery resources Raising agricultural productivity in developing countries through techno- log,ical improvement Improved storage and its contribution to world food supplies Agricultural marketing improvement programmes: some lessons from recent experience Modernization of institutions to promote development Agriculture at the threshold of the Second Development Decade Water pollution and its effects on living aquatic resources and fisheries Education and training for development Accelerating agricultural research in the developing countries THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 1973 WORLD REVIEW REVIEW BY REGIONS AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 1973 The statistical material inthis publication has been prepared from the information available to FAO up to1 October 1973 The designations employed and the presenta (ion of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area,orconcerningthedelimitationof frontiers. C)FAO 1973 Printed inItaly CONTENTS Foreword VII DEVELOPMENT A SSISTANCE 51 The flow of aid 51 1. World review Terms of assistance 57 Repayment burden 52 The World Bank Group and the financing of A GRICULTURA L PRODUCTION 2 agriculture . 53 Regional development banks 54 Production 1972 2 Food aid 55 Production of main commodities 3 The least developed countries 56 Production 1973 5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL 2. Review by regions 59 PRODUCTS 12 WESTERN EUROPE 59 Export earnings International prices 14 Agricultural production 59 Agricultural imports 15 Agricultural policies and problems 60 Price policies 62 Structural reform 63 STOCKS 18 Enlargement of EEC 63 FOOD PR ICES 19 EASTERN EUROPE AND THE U. S . S .R. 66 Agricultural production 67 LONGER TERM TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PRO- Farm incomes and welfare policies 70 DUCTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 21 investment,agro-technical measuresand policies 71 Physical factors affecting production 26 Institutional factors 31 Other factors . 32 NORTH AMERICA 73 Agricultural production 73 FERTILIZER MARKET SITUATION 34 Agricultural prices and farm incomes 74 Problems, policies and programmes 75 FISHERIES 36 OCEANIA 80 Production and trade 36 Agricultural production 80 Policies and other issues 39 Agricultural prices and incomes 80 Outlook 43 Problems, policies and programmes 81 FORESTRY 45 LATIN AMERICA 83 Production and trade 45 Agricultural production 84 Forest policies 49 Development plans and policies 85 Agrarian reform 88 Technological change 145 Regional economic integration 94 Overall demand for agricultural labour 148 FAR EAST 95 POLICIES AND MEASURES FOR RURAL EMPLOY- Developing countries 95 MENT PROMOTION 150 Agricultural production 96 Possible trade-offs between employment and Development plans and policies 98 other development objectives 151 The small farm 100 Technological policy and selective mechaniza- Regional economic cooperation 104 tion 152 Fiscal and related policy 154 China 105 Structural policy and agrarian reform 156 Plans and policies 106 Integrated rural development 157 Japan 107 CONCLUSIONS 163 NEAR EAST 109 Developing countries 109 Annex :Agricultural and rural employment in national development plans 165 Agricultural production 110 Development plans and policies 111 Africa 165 Agricultural credit 113 Far East 167 Israel 115 Latin America 170 Near East 173 AFRICA 115 Developing countries 115 Annex tables Agricultural production 116 Development plans and policies 118 1 Volume of production of major agricul- Food supplies and adjustment problems 120 tural, fishery and forest products 176 Regional economic integration 124 /Indices of food and agricultural produc- tion 182 South Africa 124 3 Volume of exports of major agricultural, fishery and forest products 189 4World average export unit values of se- 3. Agricultural employment in developing coun- lectedagricultural,fishery andforest tries 127 products 196 Significance of employment . 128 5 Volume of imports of major agricultural, Employment role of agriculture 128 fishery and forest products 198 6Indices of value of exports of agricultural, fishery and forest products 204 EMPLOYMENT SITUATION 130 7Indices of volume of exports of agricul- Agricultural underemployment 133 tural, fishery and forest products 206 Rural-urban migration 134 8 Indices of value of imports of agricultural and forest products 208 SUPPLY OF AGRICULTURAL LABOUR 136 9Indices of volume of imports of agricul- tural and forest products 210 Growth of agricultural labour force 137 10Stocks of selected agricultural products . 212 Composition of agricultural labour force . 141 11 Annual changes in consumer prices: all items and food 213 DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL LABOUR 143 12Main featuresof current development Demand for agricultural products..... 143 plans 215 Pattern of production 144 13 Basic data on national agriculture 216 vi FOREWORD The ivorld food situation in 1973 is more difficult than at any time since the years immediately following the devastation of the second world war.As a result of droughts and other unfavourable weather conditions, poor harvests were unusually widespread in 1972.Cereal stocks have dropped to the lowest level for 20 years.In the neiv situation of worldwide shortage, changes are occurring with extraordinary rapidity.Prices are rocket- ing, and the world's biggest agricultural exporter has had to introduce export allocations for certain products. World food production in 1972 was slightly smaller than in 1971, ivhen there were about 75 million fewer people to feed.This is the first time since the second world war that ivorld production has actually declined. There have 1101V been two successive years of poor harvests in the developing countries. After a series of encouragingly large harvests (especially in the heavily populated Far East)in each of the four years 1967-70, 1971 brought only a small increase in food production in the developing countries as a whole.In 1972 the Neat. East was the only developing region to record a large increase, and with a substantial drop in the Far East (3 percent) no increase occurred in the total food production of the developing countries. The inain difference between 1971 and 1972 and which makes the disappointing production resultsinthe developing countriesin1972 all the more serious lies in what happened in the developed parts of the world.In 1971 the small increase in the de- veloping countries was accompanied by a large increase in the developed countries, so that at the ivorld level there was a fairly comfortable rise.But in 1972, largely (al- though by no means entirely) because of disastrous iveather in the U.S.S.R., stagnant production in the developing countries was accompanied by a fall in the developed ones. In the face of a constantly growing population, these events are extremely disquiet- ing.Per caput food production in the developing countries as a whole is now beloiv the level of 1961-65.In the Far East it is 8 percent below the peak kvel of 1970.The threat of food shortages has already become a harsh fact in the Sahelian zone of west Africa,where because of prolonged drought more than 6 mil/ion people are close to famine.Even where the situation is less dramatic, many millions must have been added to the large number of people already inadequately fed.Food prices have risen almost zuziversally, bringing additional hardship to the poorer consurners who have to spend 1170St of their income on food.Imports of the staple cereals llave become very difficult to obtain, even for those countries that can afford to purchase them out of their own foreign exchange. Mainly because of massive purchases contracted by theU.S.S.R. in 1972, world stocks of ivheat have been draivn down to the loivest kvel for 20 years.Rice is also in very short supply.There is thus little if any margin against the possibility of another widespread harvest failure in 1973, and the world has become dangerously