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Annex 3: Environment and Poverty / Social Analysis Table

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Annex 3: Environment and Poverty / Social Analysis Table Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 123326-BT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROGRAM DOCUMENT FOR A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT POLICY CREDIT Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 20.6 MILLION (US$30 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE KINGDOM OF BHUTAN FOR THE FIRST PROGRAMMATIC STRENGTHENING FISCAL MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY CREDIT Public Disclosure Authorized March 2018 Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice Public Disclosure Authorized South Asia Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. KINGDOM OF BHUTAN -GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of Feb 12, 2018) Currency Unit Bhutanese ngultrum US$1.00 = BTN 64.0 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank BoP Balance of Payments BTN Bhutanese ngultrum CIB Credit Information Bureau CRST Central Registry Secured Transaction DPC Development Policy Credit EDP Economic Development Policy FDI Foreign Direct Investment FY Fiscal Year FYP Five-Year Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GNH Gross National Happiness GNHC Gross National Happiness Commission GOI Government of India GRS Grievance Redress Service GST Goods and Services Tax ICT Information and Communication Technology IMF International Monetary Fund INR Indian rupee LDP Letter of Development Policy MDF Multi-Donor Fund MIPA Moveable and Immovable Property Act MoF Ministry of Finance MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MW Mega Watts NKRA National Key Result Area NPL Non-Performing Loan PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PFM Public Financial Management RBI Reserve Bank of India RGoB Royal Government of Bhutan RNR Renewable Natural Resources RMA Royal Monetary Authority (Central Bank) SDR Special Drawing Rights WB World Bank WBG World Bank Group Vice President: Annette Dixon Country Director: Qimiao Fan Senior Practice Director: Carlos Felipe Jaramillo Practice Manager: Manuela Francisco Task Team Leaders: Damir Cosic and Sheik Tanjeb Islam KINGDOM OF BHUTAN THE FIRST PROGRAMMATIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY CREDIT FOR STRENGTHENING FISCAL MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND COUNTRY CONTEXT .................................................................................................... 6 2. MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................... 7 2.1 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................... 7 2.2 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY .................................................................. 10 2.3 IMF RELATIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 12 3. THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM ................................................................................................................. 12 4. THE PROPOSED OPERATION ........................................................................................................................ 12 4.1 LINK TO GOVERNMENT PROGRAM AND OPERATION DESCRIPTION ................................................. 12 4.2 PRIOR ACTIONS, RESULTS AND ANALYTICAL UNDERPINNINGS ............................................................ 13 4.3 LINK TO CPF, OTHER BANK OPERATIONS AND THE WBG STRATEGY .............................................. 20 4.4 CONSULTATIONS, COLLABORATION WITH DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS .............................................. 20 5. OTHER DESIGN AND APPRAISAL ISSUES ...................................................................................................... 20 5.1 POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT .............................................................................................................. 20 5.2 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ................................................................................................................... 21 5.3 PFM, DISBURSEMENT AND AUDITING ASPECTS ................................................................................... 22 5.4 MONITORING, EVALUATION AND ACCOUNTABILITY ............................................................................ 23 6. SUMMARY OF RISKS AND MITIGATION ....................................................................................................... 24 ANNEXES .......................................................................................................................................................... 25 ANNEX 1: POLICY AND RESULTS MATRIX ..................................................................................................... 25 ANNEX 2: LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY .............................................................................................. 28 ANNEX 3: ENVIRONMENT AND POVERTY / SOCIAL ANALYSIS TABLE ......................................................... 31 This Development Policy Credit was prepared by a World Bank Group team co-led by Damir Cosic (Senior Economist, GMTSA) and Sheik Tanjeb Islam (Economist, GMTSA), and consisting of: Christian Eigen- Zucchi (Program Leader, SACBN), Marcelo Hector Acerbi (Sr. Environmental Specialist, GEN06), Francesca Lo Re (Sr. Financial Sector Specialist, GFM06), Sabin Raj Shrestha (Sr. Financial Sector Specialist, GFM06), Hiroki Uematsu (Sr. Economist, GPV06), Jasmine Rajbhandary (Sr. Social Protection Specialist, GSP06), Savinay Grover (Sr. Financial Management Specialist, GGOIS), Tenzin Lhaden (Operations Officer, SACBT), Vidya Venugopal (Counsel, LEGES), Mohan Nagarajan (Senior Economist, GGOIS), Satish Kumar Shivakumar (Finance Officer, WFACS), and Vidya Narasimhan (Finance Officer, WFACS). The team gratefully acknowledges the support and guidance provided by Qimiao Fan (Country Director, SACBN), Manuela Francisco (Practice Manager, GMTSA), Mona Prasad (Lead Economist, GMTSA), and Yoichiro Ishihara (Resident Representative, SACBT). Finally, the team would like to express their gratitude to the Royal Government of Bhutan for their collaboration in the preparation of this Operation. SUMMARY OF PROPOSED CREDIT AND PROGRAM THE KINGDOM OF BHUTAN STRENGTHENING FISCAL MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES Borrower The Kingdom of Bhutan Implementation Agency Ministry of Finance International Development Association (IDA) Credit. Financing Data Terms: IDA Regular for small state economies. Amount: SDR 20.6 million (US$30 million equivalent). Operation Type Programmatic. First of three operations. Pillars of the Operation and Pillar 1: Strengthening the policy framework to improve fiscal management Program Development Pillar 2: Enhancing policies to promote private sector employment Objective(s) opportunities Pillar 1: • Stabilization Fund operational and members of the Governing Board of the Stabilization Fund have been appointed. Baseline (2016): 0; Target (2021): All. • GST Law adopted and revenues collected. Baseline (2016): BTN 0; Target (2021): BTN 4,000 million • Number of PFM systems interconnected. Baseline (2016): 0; Target (2021): 5 Pillar 2: • Number of CSIs under incubation: Baseline (2016): 7 in total, of which 0 female-owned; Target (2021): 30 in total, of which 5 female-owned. Result Indicators • Number of entities reporting to CIB. Baseline (2016): 988; Target (2021): 1,087 • Percentage of Teachers meeting new Teachers’ Standards. Baseline (2016): 0 percent; Target (2021): 15 percent. • Energy Efficiency Policy reducing energy consumption in tons of oil equivalent (TOE): i) Building & appliance sectors: Baseline 2014: 270,356 TOE; Target 2021: 8,000 TOE reduction ii) Industry Sector: Baseline 2014: 241,972 TOE; Target 2021: 15,000 TOE reduction iii) Transport Sector: Baseline 2014: 121,218 TOE; Target 2021: 7,000 TOE reduction Overall risk rating Moderate Are there short and long-term climate and disaster risks relevant to the Climate and disaster risks operation (as identified as part of the SORT environmental and social risk rating)? No. Operation ID P164290 IDA PROGRAM DOCUMENT FOR A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT POLICY CREDIT TO THE KINGDOM OF BHUTAN 1. INTRODUCTION AND COUNTRY CONTEXT 1. The proposed Development Policy Credit (DPC) of US$30 million is the first in a programmatic series of three operations that aim to strengthen policy framework to improve fiscal management and enhance policies to promote private sector employment opportunities in Bhutan. Bhutan is one of the smallest but fastest-growing economies in the world with an annual average growth rate of 7.6 percent over the past three decades. This stellar growth performance has helped improve living standards and has contributed to poverty reduction. However, further welfare improvements will require a dynamic job-creating private sector. The current hydropower driven growth model has created some macroeconomic imbalances and coupled with a large and dominant public sector, impeded the development of a vibrant private sector. As a result, the economy has witnessed considerable volatility, and limited job creation. This DPC series will help the government address some of these challenges by supporting reforms aimed at improving the management of macroeconomic volatility, strengthening domestic resource mobilization, and promoting
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