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Battlegrounds Poll-September 2005

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Battlegrounds Poll-September 2005 Battleground States Poll - October 31, 2006 October 31, 2006 Gubernatorial Races Democrats stand poised to make gains in the nation's governorships, though they lost the lead in several battleground states in the latest poll and their advantage in several other races is razor thin. In the latest Battleground States Poll, Democratic candidates were ahead in 11 races, while Republicans led in five and three races were tied. In a poll earlier this month, Democrats were ahead in 13, Republicans in five and one was tied. Zogby Interactive, in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, is conducting a series of online polls that track 19 gubernatorial races. The latest polls were conducted Oct. 23-27 and have margins of error that range from 2.8 to 4.4 percentage points per candidate. Taking into account governorships that aren't up for re-election and those that weren't included in the battleground polling because the incumbent party is widely expected to remain in power, the Democrats would hold 26 governorships and Republicans 21, if the results on Election Day were to match the latest polling. The Democratic leads in five states, though, are within the polls' margins of error. A division of power akin to what the Zogby polls suggest would mark a reversal from the current balance. Today, Republicans hold 28 governorships and Democrats 22. Three states that were shaded blue in the prior poll -- Colorado, Wisconsin and Oregon -- are gray this time around. In Colorado, Republican Bob Beauprez, who was nine percentage points behind as recently as early September, pulled even with Democrat Bill Ritter. In Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Jim Doyle was even with Republican Mark Green, in a race that has been neck and neck. Green Party candidate Nelson Eisman polls at just 4% but could be a factor in the outcome. Oregon turned gray as Republican Ron Saxton caught up with Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski. As recently as early September, the Democrat was up by seven percentage points. In Minnesota, which was tied in the prior poll, Democrat Mike Hatch was up by one percentage point in a race against Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson took about six percent of the vote. Elsewhere, Nevada Democrat Dina Titus edged ahead to a one-point lead over Republican Jim Gibbons, while in Arkansas Republican Asa Hutchinson edged to a three-point lead over Democrat Mike Beebe. Mr. Beebe led by a similar margin in the prior several polls. GUBERNATORIAL: ARIZONA Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano continues to hold a lead over her GOP rival Len Munsil, a social conservative who surged past Don Goldwater to win the Republican primary. Napolitano was unopposed in her primary. For all of 2006, Napolitano has hovered within a percentage point or two of 50% vs. potential rivals, and seems well-positioned in her re-election race, though she retains just a narrow majority. Zogby finds Napolitano benefits from a much more energized base -- she is supported by 96% of Democrats versus 82% of Republicans for Munsil -- and is up by 42 points among independents. GUBERNATORIAL: CALIFORNIA Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger still looks strong against challenger Phil Angelides, who sorely lacks the governor's star power. One problem for Angelides is that he emerged weakened from a bruising June primary, in which he barely defeated Democratic state controller Steve Westly and then faced a barrage of attack ads from the Schwarzenegger campaign. By going along with traditional Democratic issues -- without acceding to Democratic demands for more taxes -- Schwarzenegger has persuaded some Democrats to embrace him without alienating his Republican base. The lack of a female gender gap may be one of the more striking aspects of Schwarzenegger's strength, Zogby finds. He leads Angelides by 17 points among men and the two are running neck-and-neck among women. GUBERNATORIAL: COLORADO Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and favorite of the White House, has been surging since Labor Day, consistently gaining ground against Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter, and now they are neck-and-neck, though a recent poll by Rasmussen shows Ritter with a comfortable lead. Libertarian candidate Dawn Winkler-Kinateder polled at 4% this time, even with 4% in the previous poll. GUBERNATORIAL: FLORIDA Charlie Crist, the GOP attorney general, continues to hold a lead over his challenger, Democratic Congressman Jim Davis, in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. Crist's level of support has remained constant over the past month, at 50%, while Davis has won over converts from undecided voters, Zogby finds. With Crist still at 50%, it remains an uphill battle for the Democrat, though Crist's lead is within the poll's margin of error. GUBERNATORIAL: GEORGIA Sonny Perdue, the incumbent Republican governor, continues to hold a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Mark Taylor, the lieutenant governor of Georgia. The test appears to be if Perdue -- now at 48% -- can avoid a runoff election by polling 50%. Libertarian Garrett Hayes's performance could end up deciding that. Perdue's 2002 election was the crowning achievement of the transformation of the state that once elected Jimmy Carter into a GOP bastion. GUBERNATORIAL: ILLINOIS Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, once seen as vulnerable, has seen his lead narrow in the most recent poll but it remains at seven percentage points, despite pickups by Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who now polls at 16%. The moderate Republican nominee, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, has failed to poll well among traditional Republican bases. While Topinka does hold solid leads among older voters, Zogby notes, Blagojevich bests her among younger voters and has a big lead among women. GUBERNATORIAL: IOWA Democratic Secretary of State Chet Culver remained barely ahead of GOP Congressman Jim Nussle in their tight race -- in a state that President Bush narrowly won in 2004. In this contest to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack, Culver has taken a pro- choice position and his campaign has tried to paint Nussle as to the right of the electorate on the issue. Neither candidate has led by more than the polls' margin of error this year. Zogby says Culver and Nussle both have fully energized their bases: Culver has 94% of Democrats backing him; for Nussle, the number is 96% among Republicans. Culver outperforms Nussle among independents, where he is up by 15 percentage points. GUBERNATORIAL: MARYLAND Bob Ehrlich, who became the first Republican governor in 34 years when he defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, has pulled to just five points behind Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich, who won the endorsement of the Washington Post, has the support of 94% of Republicans, far better than the 78% support that O'Malley has among members of his party. But Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state and O'Malley has a 12-percentage-point lead among independent voters, Zogby notes. GUBERNATORIAL: MASSACHUSETTS Massachusetts is on course to elect its first Democratic governor since Michael Dukakis. With Republican Gov. Mitt Romney opting against seeking re-election, Democrat Deval Patrick, a former assistant attorney general for civil rights, holds a 25 percentage point lead over Romney's lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey. Patrick has a 12-point lead among independents and he is up by 15 points among men and 35 points among women, Zogby notes. Support for Independent Christy Mihos, in the mid-teens at one point this summer, has shriveled to 4%. GUBERNATORIAL: MICHIGAN Gov. Jennifer Granholm leads Republican challenger Dick DeVos, the Amway heir, by nine percentage points, polling at 50% or more for the third straight time. DeVos has a wide lead in rural areas, but Granholm is far ahead in big cities and has moderate leads in suburbs and small cities, Zogby notes. Granholm has the support of 92% of Democrats and is ahead of DeVos by four points among independents. Republican support of DeVos stands at 88%. GUBERNATORIAL: MINNESOTA Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who succeeded independent Jesse Ventura, is locked in a tight race against Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. The two candidates have polled within two percentage points of one another in every Zogby poll since July. The candidates run even among independents and have similar gender gap leads: The Republican is up by eight points among men, while the Democrat has a 10 point advantage among women. Hatch could benefit from a modest lead he has among union voters, though Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson seems to be pulling more votes from Hatch than Pawlenty, Zogby notes. GUBERNATORIAL: NEVADA Democratic State Sen. Dina Titus gained against Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons, who has faced allegations that he assaulted a Las Vegas waitress. Gibbons has strongly denied the allegations; no charges have been filed. Titus leads in Nevada's cities, while Gibbons is ahead in suburbs. Zogby notes that there is no gender gap: Titus leads slightly among men and Gibbons is up slightly among women. GUBERNATORIAL: NEW YORK State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer continues to hold tightly to his position as the leading candidate for governor of New York. The GOP's candidate, lawyer John Faso, trails Spitzer by about 36 percentage points. GUBERNATORIAL: OHIO Republican Ohio Gov. Bob Taft's time is up due to term limits, and Democrats hope this spring's investment scandal will mar his party's hopes to hold the seat. GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell saw a slight increase in support in the latest poll, to 43% from 41%, but the Democrats' candidate, Rep. Ted Strickland, continues to poll at about 51%. Strickland is supported by about 92% of Democrats polled and 60% of independents, while Blackwell is backed by about 85% of Republicans and 30% of independents.
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