Battleground States Poll - October 31, 2006

October 31, 2006 Gubernatorial Races

Democrats stand poised to make gains in the nation's governorships, though they lost the lead in several battleground states in the latest poll and their advantage in several other races is razor thin. In the latest Battleground States Poll, Democratic candidates were ahead in 11 races, while Republicans led in five and three races were tied. In a poll earlier this month, Democrats were ahead in 13, Republicans in five and one was tied. Zogby Interactive, in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, is conducting a series of online polls that track 19 gubernatorial races. The latest polls were conducted Oct. 23-27 and have margins of error that range from 2.8 to 4.4 percentage points per candidate. Taking into account governorships that aren't up for re-election and those that weren't included in the battleground polling because the incumbent party is widely expected to remain in power, the Democrats would hold 26 governorships and Republicans 21, if the results on Election Day were to match the latest polling. The Democratic leads in five states, though, are within the polls' margins of error. A division of power akin to what the Zogby polls suggest would mark a reversal from the current balance. Today, Republicans hold 28 governorships and Democrats 22. Three states that were shaded blue in the prior poll -- Colorado, Wisconsin and Oregon -- are gray this time around. In Colorado, Republican Bob Beauprez, who was nine percentage points behind as recently as early September, pulled even with Democrat Bill Ritter. In Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Jim Doyle was even with Republican Mark Green, in a race that has been neck and neck. Green Party candidate Nelson Eisman polls at just 4% but could be a factor in the outcome. Oregon turned gray as Republican Ron Saxton caught up with Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski. As recently as early September, the Democrat was up by seven percentage points. In , which was tied in the prior poll, Democrat was up by one percentage point in a race against Republican incumbent . Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson took about six percent of the vote. Elsewhere, Nevada Democrat Dina Titus edged ahead to a one-point lead over Republican Jim Gibbons, while in Arkansas Republican Asa Hutchinson edged to a three-point lead over Democrat Mike Beebe. Mr. Beebe led by a similar margin in the prior several polls.

GUBERNATORIAL: ARIZONA

Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano continues to hold a lead over her GOP rival Len Munsil, a social conservative who surged past Don Goldwater to win the Republican primary. Napolitano was unopposed in her primary. For all of 2006, Napolitano has hovered within a percentage point or two of 50% vs. potential rivals, and seems well-positioned in her re-election race, though she retains just a narrow majority. Zogby finds Napolitano benefits from a much more energized base -- she is supported by 96% of Democrats versus 82% of Republicans for Munsil -- and is up by 42 points among independents.

GUBERNATORIAL: CALIFORNIA

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger still looks strong against challenger Phil Angelides, who sorely lacks the governor's star power. One problem for Angelides is that he emerged weakened from a bruising June primary, in which he barely defeated Democratic state controller Steve Westly and then faced a barrage of attack ads from the Schwarzenegger campaign. By going along with traditional Democratic issues -- without acceding to Democratic demands for more taxes -- Schwarzenegger has persuaded some Democrats to embrace him without alienating his Republican base. The lack of a female gender gap may be one of the more striking aspects of Schwarzenegger's strength, Zogby finds. He leads Angelides by 17 points among men and the two are running neck-and-neck among women. GUBERNATORIAL: COLORADO

Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and favorite of the White House, has been surging since Labor Day, consistently gaining ground against Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter, and now they are neck-and-neck, though a recent poll by Rasmussen shows Ritter with a comfortable lead. Libertarian candidate Dawn Winkler-Kinateder polled at 4% this time, even with 4% in the previous poll.

GUBERNATORIAL: FLORIDA

Charlie Crist, the GOP attorney general, continues to hold a lead over his challenger, Democratic Congressman Jim Davis, in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. Crist's level of support has remained constant over the past month, at 50%, while Davis has won over converts from undecided voters, Zogby finds. With Crist still at 50%, it remains an uphill battle for the Democrat, though Crist's lead is within the poll's margin of error.

GUBERNATORIAL: GEORGIA

Sonny Perdue, the incumbent Republican governor, continues to hold a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Mark Taylor, the lieutenant governor of Georgia. The test appears to be if Perdue -- now at 48% -- can avoid a runoff election by polling 50%. Libertarian Garrett Hayes's performance could end up deciding that. Perdue's 2002 election was the crowning achievement of the transformation of the state that once elected Jimmy Carter into a GOP bastion.

GUBERNATORIAL: ILLINOIS

Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, once seen as vulnerable, has seen his lead narrow in the most recent poll but it remains at seven percentage points, despite pickups by Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who now polls at 16%. The moderate Republican nominee, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, has failed to poll well among traditional Republican bases. While Topinka does hold solid leads among older voters, Zogby notes, Blagojevich bests her among younger voters and has a big lead among women.

GUBERNATORIAL: IOWA

Democratic Secretary of State Chet Culver remained barely ahead of GOP Congressman Jim Nussle in their tight race -- in a state that President Bush narrowly won in 2004. In this contest to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack, Culver has taken a pro- choice position and his campaign has tried to paint Nussle as to the right of the electorate on the issue. Neither candidate has led by more than the polls' margin of error this year. Zogby says Culver and Nussle both have fully energized their bases: Culver has 94% of Democrats backing him; for Nussle, the number is 96% among Republicans. Culver outperforms Nussle among independents, where he is up by 15 percentage points.

GUBERNATORIAL: MARYLAND

Bob Ehrlich, who became the first Republican governor in 34 years when he defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, has pulled to just five points behind Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich, who won the endorsement of the Washington Post, has the support of 94% of Republicans, far better than the 78% support that O'Malley has among members of his party. But Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state and O'Malley has a 12-percentage-point lead among independent voters, Zogby notes.

GUBERNATORIAL: MASSACHUSETTS

Massachusetts is on course to elect its first Democratic governor since Michael Dukakis. With Republican Gov. Mitt Romney opting against seeking re-election, Democrat Deval Patrick, a former assistant attorney general for civil rights, holds a 25 percentage point lead over Romney's lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey. Patrick has a 12-point lead among independents and he is up by 15 points among men and 35 points among women, Zogby notes. Support for Independent Christy Mihos, in the mid-teens at one point this summer, has shriveled to 4%.

GUBERNATORIAL: MICHIGAN

Gov. Jennifer Granholm leads Republican challenger Dick DeVos, the Amway heir, by nine percentage points, polling at 50% or more for the third straight time. DeVos has a wide lead in rural areas, but Granholm is far ahead in big cities and has moderate leads in suburbs and small cities, Zogby notes. Granholm has the support of 92% of Democrats and is ahead of DeVos by four points among independents. Republican support of DeVos stands at 88%. GUBERNATORIAL: MINNESOTA

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who succeeded independent , is locked in a tight race against Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. The two candidates have polled within two percentage points of one another in every Zogby poll since July. The candidates run even among independents and have similar gender gap leads: The Republican is up by eight points among men, while the Democrat has a 10 point advantage among women. Hatch could benefit from a modest lead he has among union voters, though Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson seems to be pulling more votes from Hatch than Pawlenty, Zogby notes.

GUBERNATORIAL: NEVADA

Democratic State Sen. Dina Titus gained against Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons, who has faced allegations that he assaulted a Las Vegas waitress. Gibbons has strongly denied the allegations; no charges have been filed. Titus leads in Nevada's cities, while Gibbons is ahead in suburbs. Zogby notes that there is no gender gap: Titus leads slightly among men and Gibbons is up slightly among women. GUBERNATORIAL: NEW YORK

State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer continues to hold tightly to his position as the leading candidate for governor of New York. The GOP's candidate, lawyer John Faso, trails Spitzer by about 36 percentage points.

GUBERNATORIAL: OHIO

Republican Ohio Gov. Bob Taft's time is up due to term limits, and Democrats hope this spring's investment scandal will mar his party's hopes to hold the seat. GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell saw a slight increase in support in the latest poll, to 43% from 41%, but the Democrats' candidate, Rep. Ted Strickland, continues to poll at about 51%. Strickland is supported by about 92% of Democrats polled and 60% of independents, while Blackwell is backed by about 85% of Republicans and 30% of independents.

GUBERNATORIAL: OREGON

In the latest poll, incumbent Democrat Ted Kulongoski finds himself tied with Republican Ron Saxton for the first time since March, and with a little more than a week to go until Election Day. Zogby notes that Saxton holds strong leads over Kulongoski among voters in Oregon's small cities -- of which there are many -- and among married voters, which outnumber single voters in Oregon.

GUBERNATORIAL: PENNSYLVANIA

Incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell remains ahead of Republican Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver. Rendell's lead has widened in the most recent polls, thanks in part, Zogby says, to his strong showing among independent voters and to Swann's relatively poor performance among Republican voters; about 84% of them say they will vote for Swann, compared to the 91% of Democrats who say they will vote for Rendell come Election Day. GUBERNATORIAL: TEXAS

Incumbent Rick Perry faces broad competition for re-election, with several strong third-party candidates as well as a Democratic rival. A five-way matchup including Democrat Chris Bell, author and musician Kinky Friedman, one-time Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Libertarian James Werner leaves Perry in the lead by about eight percentage points, down from a lead of about 12 percentage points two weeks ago; all the candidates except for Werner poll in the double-digits.

GUBERNATORIAL: WISCONSIN

Wisconsin Republicans see Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle as vulnerable in this race, and the latest poll indicated they might be right: the GOP's Mark Green is now tied with Doyle, with both candidates polling at about 47%. Green Party candidate Nelson Eisman is the "potential spoiler," Zogby says, netting about four percentage points in the latest poll.

October 31, 2006 Senate Races For Democrats, the latest Battleground States Poll offers reason for optimism: Their candidates took the lead in two states and -- taking into account independents and states not included in the poll -- there's a plausible scenario for the party to take control. But there is plenty of uncertainty too. The Democrats' lead in the two states (Virginia and New Jersey) that moved into their column in this poll is hardly commanding, and there are signs of Republican strength in two states (Ohio and Washington) that have been shaded blue for months of polling. The latest Zogby Interactive polls, conducted Oct. 23-27 in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, show Democrats ahead in 12 of the 18 states polled, while Republicans lead in five. In a poll earlier this month, the Democrats led in 10 and Republicans in seven. In both polls, independent Joe Lieberman was ahead in Connecticut. The latest polls, the last in a project that began in August 2005, have margins of error that range from 2.8 to 4.4 percentage points per candidate. Results include "leaners" -- voters who are leaning toward a candidate but haven't yet committed. (See full methodology below) In Virginia, Democrat James Webb edged to a four-percentage-point lead over Republican incumbent George Allen. The lead has gone back and forth since the summer amid a series of controversies. Mr. Webb's lead in the Zogby poll is well within the margin of error. Some other pollsters have given Mr. Allen a slim lead over the past several weeks, though Rasmussen yesterday released a poll putting Mr. Webb up by five points. New Jersey's Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez retook the lead from Republican Tom Kean Jr. That race, which also has zigzagged amid weeks of allegations of ethical breaches, is within the poll's margin of error. Several other pollsters over the past several weeks have given Mr. Menendez lead of between one and nine percentage points over Mr. Kean. In Ohio, a state that has been colored blue since the polling project began, Democrat Sherrod Brown's lead over Republican incumbent Mike DeWine shrank to two percentage points. In Washington, Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell's lead fell to four percentage points after holding at seven percentage points or more in every Zogby poll since July. In both races, numbers released by other pollsters in recent weeks have given the Democrats wider leads. If the Democrats score Election Day victories in Virginia, New Jersey, Ohio and Washington -- and the rest of Zogby's results match those from the nation's polling places -- the Democrats could end up with an effective 50-50 tie in the Senate. Here's how: Two independent candidates (Mr. Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders, who is expected to win a seat in Vermont) would be expected to frequently vote with the Democrats. And two other states now held by Republicans but not included in the battlegrounds polling (Montana and Rhode Island) have become competitive. Several pollsters have released numbers over the past month that consistently put Democrats ahead by narrow margins in both of those states. Of course, a 50-50 tie would still leave Republicans in control of the chamber, by virtue of Vice President Dick Cheney's vote. In order to take power, the Democrats would have to pick up one of two other Republican seats where Zogby shows tight races. In one, Missouri Republican Sen. Jim Talent remains about one point ahead of Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill, whose support has climbed to 47% from 43% since early September. Mr. Talent has polled between 47%-50% over that period. In the other, Tennessee Republican Bob Corker holds a one percentage point lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. in the race for the seat that will be vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Mr. Ford's support has climbed to 48% from 42% since early September, while Mr. Corker has climbed to 49% from 44%. Most other pollsters also give Mr. Corker a slim lead. SENATE: ARIZONA

Arizona's senate race is shaping up to be a GOP hold. Sen. Jon Kyl has extended his solid lead over Democratic State Chairman Jim Pederson. Kyl and Pederson, a millionaire shopping mall developer, have sparred over immigration, and Democrats' hopes of picking up a seat in this red state appear to be fading.

SENATE: CONNECTICUT

Joe Lieberman continues to face a tight race against Democratic peace candidate Ned Lamont in the latest poll. Lieberman, running as an independent since losing the Democratic primary and picking up most Republican votes, was 10 percentage points ahead of Lamont in August, immediately after the primary. After narrowing to as much as two points, Lieberman's lead now stands at four points, while Republican Alan Schlesinger remains a distant third, at just 6%. Zogby says the race seems to come down to independents, where Lieberman is ahead 58% to Lamont's 35%.

SENATE: FLORIDA

Sen. Bill Nelson remains ahead by a wide margin with less than a month to go. Republican nominee Katherine Harris, known for her role in the 2000 election fight, has struggled all year and remains behind by double digits. Fundraising has been slow and GOP leaders tried to find another candidate. SENATE: MARYLAND

Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele narrowed the gap a bit over the past month but Democrat Ben Cardin remains solidly ahead in the race for the seat of retiring Democrat Paul Sarbanes. Cardin polls well ahead among women, while Steele narrowly leads among men. The two are close among whites, but Cardin has a wide lead among African-American voters, Zogby notes.

SENATE: MICHIGAN

Incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow has a seven percentage point lead over Michael Bouchard, sheriff of Oakland County, north of Detroit. Although her advantage has narrowed considerably from where it stood early this year, her lead is greater than the poll's margin of error. She is up by 17 points among women and polls well ahead among African Americans, Zogby notes. SENATE: MINNESOTA

Democrat Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County attorney, held an eight-percentage-point advantage over Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. She has the support of 96% of Democrats and a nine-point lead among independents.

SENATE: MISSOURI

Missouri Republican Sen. Jim Talent's lead over Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill remains slim, well within the poll's margin of error. Talent leads widely among men and McCaskill widely among women. Both candidates poll strongly among members of their own party, while McCaskill leads 48%-45% among independents. Zogby notes that McCaskill has a 71%-26% lead among voters who call themselves "moderate." A Libertarian candidate could take votes from the incumbent, though support for Frank Gilmour in the poll is small at 3%.

SENATE: NEVADA

Republican incumbent Sen. John Ensign has opened up a wide lead against Democrat Jack Carter. The margin between the candidates had narrowed to single digits early this fall. But Ensign is up by 21 percentage points in the latest poll.

SENATE: NEW JERSEY

Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez edged back to a lead against Republican Tom Kean Jr. in the latest poll. Kean leads 52%-41% among men, while Menendez is up 56%-34% among women. Menendez has the support of 90% of Democrats, while Kean has the support of 84% of Republicans. Kean is up 49%- 39% among independents. Although Democrats typically poll strongly in New Jersey's urban areas, Kean leads Menendez by 10 percentage points in big cities. Menendez is up by eight points in the suburbs.

SENATE: NEW MEXICO

Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Democrat, maintained a wide lead over Allen McCulloch. Bingaman has been ahead by 20 percentage points or more in each poll since July. McCulloch, a political newcomer, is a Farmington, N.M., urologist.

SENATE: NEW YORK

Incumbent Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over her Republican rival, former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, after the two debated on Oct. 20 and 22. Clinton, who had been criticized by some Democrats for her stance on the Iraq war, has the support of 88% of Democrats in the poll, compared with the 80% support that Spencer has among Republicans. But Clinton's support among people who identify themselves as "progressive" is just 81%, Zogby notes.

SENATE: OHIO

Ohio's Senate race remains hotly contested. Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine pulled to just two percentage points behind Democrat Sherrod Brown. In the prior three polls, DeWine was about four points behind. Pollster John Zogby says DeWine is seeing growing support from the state's Republican base, with about 90% of Republicans in the most recent poll saying they will vote for him, up significantly from earlier polling rounds. Brown leads DeWine 59%-33% among independents.

SENATE: PENNSYLVANIA

Democrat Bob Casey Jr.'s lead over incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum widened to about nine percentage points in the latest poll. Santorum got off to a bad start for this election by angering his conservative base with his support for fellow (but more moderate) GOP Sen. Arlen Specter in his 2004 race against the right-wing Pat Toomey. Democrats have been gunning for Santorum, too, arguing that he is too conservative for a state that voted Democratic in two straight presidential elections. Casey has the backing of 88% of Democrats, while 85% of Republicans support Santorum.

SENATE: TENNESSEE

In the close race to succeed Sen. Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader vacating his seat next year to explore a potential 2008 presidential bid, Democrats are hoping to capitalize. But their candidate, Rep. Harold Ford Jr., one of the more conservative Democrats in the House, has trailed the GOP's Bob Corker in Zogby Interactive polls since the state's Republican primary. The race tightened significantly in the latest survey, with Corker leading by only about one percentage point, down from about seven percentage points just two weeks ago. Both candidates poll well among members of their own party, and Ford leads among independents, garnering the support of about 58%, compared to Corker's 36%. Ford also leads in several other polls, and Republicans have been spending heavily to support Corker's bid.

SENATE: TEXAS

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 10 years, and Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who got 65% of the vote in 2000, is a safe bet to win a third term. While still far behind, Democratic challenger Barbara Ann Radnofsky saw her share of those polled climb considerably in the latest survey, to 36% from 28% two weeks ago. Hutchison's share declined, to 55% from 60%; Libertarian Scott Jameson garners the support of about 6% of those polled.

SENATE: VIRGINIA

George Allen, the state's Republican senator and former governor, and James Webb, former secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration, have again swapped the lead in the polling series, with Webb regaining the top spot for the first time since early September. His lead is well within the poll's margin of error, though and some other pollsters put Allen narrowly ahead. The race has been marked by controversy, with Allen drawing criticism for using what some consider an ethnic slur, for reacting angrily to revelations of his Jewish heritage, and amid controversy over stock options he got for work as a director of a high-tech company.

SENATE: WASHINGTON

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell saw her lead over Safeco CEO and GOP nominee Mike McGavick narrow in the latest poll; she now leads by only about four percentage points. It is the first time since June that her lead has been within the margin of error. But Zogby notes that she remains at the critical 50% mark, and the race margin has been consistently in the single digits throughout nearly the entire polling series. Part of McGavick's strength is drawn from independents; he draws the support of 48%, compared with 43% for Cantwell.

SENATE: WISCONSIN

Incumbent Sen. Herb Kohl, a Democrat, faces Robert Gerald Lorge, a lawyer who lost a 2002 race for secretary of state. The latest poll shows Kohl's slice of the pie narrowing slightly, to about 47% of those polled from 50% two weeks ago; Lorge's share rose to 38% from 34%, and Green Party candidate Rae Vogeler held steady at around 7%.

Methodology

These polls were conducted by Zogby International. Online polls were conducted by the company's Zogby Interactive unit. Phone polls were conducted by Zogby International.

Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby. Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 20 states (AR, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.8 to 4.4% percentage points. All polls track likely voters. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.

Beginning Oct. 19, results include "leaning" voters -- those who are leaning toward a candidate but haven't yet committed. Respondents who answer "not sure" to "for whom would you vote" questions, are asked "if you had to choose today, who would you say you are leaning toward." Responses to the followup question are added to those from the initial question.

Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 26 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.

As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

For the overall party breakdowns shown on the governor and senate panels: Races that aren't being polled are assumed to stay in the current party's possession.

Until the candidate fields were narrowed for 2006, the Zogby polls matched up multiple candidates in each state and identified some of the strongest candidates from each party. Beginning Sept. 28, 2006, poll results shown reflect major party and third-party candidates. Results for the candidates polling third place or below in any given matchup are shown only if one of those candidates in a particular match polls 5% or higher.

This graphic highlights a sampling of matchups for each race. In some cases, Zogby has polled additional matchups that aren't included in the graphic. Full polling results are available from Zogby.

The schedule for primaries is as follows:

l March 7 - Texas l March 21 - Illinois l April 16 - Oregon l May 2 - Ohio l May 16 - Pennsylvania l June 6 - California, Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico l July 18 - Georgia l Aug. 3 - Tennessee l Aug. 8 - Michigan, Colorado l Aug. 15 - Nevada l Sept. 5 - Florida l Sept. 12 - Arizon, Maryland, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin l Sept. 19 - Massachusetts, Washington

*exact date to be determined

Read more about Zogby's methodology: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=830

Sources

Zogby Interactive: http://www.zogby.com/, Cook Political Report: http://www.cookpolitical.com, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/, state governments, state elections boards, WSJ.com research

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