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Vision 2030 the Resilience of Water Supply and Sanitation in the Face of Climate Change

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Vision 2030 the Resilience of Water Supply and Sanitation in the Face of Climate Change Vision 2030 The resilience of water supply and sanitation in the face of climate change Technology projection study Authors: Katrina Charles (Robens Centre for Public and Environmental Health, University of Surrey) Kathy Pond (Robens Centre for Public and Environmental Health, University of Surrey) Steve Pedley (Robens Centre for Public and Environmental Health, University of Surrey) Rifat Hossain (World Health Organization) Frédéric Jacot-Guillarmod (independent consultant) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the many people who have made significant contributions to the preparation and revision of this report: their efforts have led to a more comprehensive and focused review of the issues than was contained in the early drafts of this report. In particular we would like to thank everyone who responded to the questionnaire survey; to the group of experts who gave their time to be interviewed and who gave their advice, guidance and expertise freely and willingly. We would also like to acknowledge the work of the reviewers, whose valuable comments and suggestions have helped to shape the structure and content of the report. Disclaimer This report was prepared in good faith. The views and opinions contained in the report do not necessarily state or reflect those of the World Health Organization, Department for International Development, UK and University of Surrey, UK. The named authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication. Neither the World Health Organization, Department for International Development, UK and University of Surrey, UK, nor their employees, contractors or subcontractors, make any warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for its accuracy, completeness, or any party’s use of its contents. This report is not edited by the World Health Organization to conform to the full requirements of WHO. The published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall the World Health Organization be liable for damages arising from its use. Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change .................................................................... 6 2.2 Vulnerability and adaption of water supplies to climate change ........................................... 8 2.2.1 Piped water supply ......................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 Facilities dependent on groundwater ............................................................................ 12 2.2.3 Facilities dependent on rainwater catchment and storage.............................................. 17 2.3 Vulnerability and adaptation of sanitation to climate change .............................................. 18 2.3.1 Sewer systems ............................................................................................................. 19 2.3.2 Septic tanks ................................................................................................................. 22 2.3.3 Pit latrines ................................................................................................................... 22 2.4 Broader strategies for adaptation........................................................................................ 25 2.4.1 Understanding vulnerability at a community level ....................................................... 25 2.4.2 Informed decision-making ........................................................................................... 28 2.4.3 Risk reduction.............................................................................................................. 31 2.5 Climate change: implications for water resources and health ............................................. 32 2.5.1 Climate observations ................................................................................................... 33 2.5.2 Climate predictions ...................................................................................................... 38 2.5.3 Observations and predictions of the impact of climate change on water resources and health ……. ........................................................................................................................... 39 2.6 Key outcomes .................................................................................................................... 48 3. OPINIONS: VIEWS FROM PROFESSIONALS IN THE WATER INDUSTRY ............. 48 3.1 Methods .............................................................................................................................. 49 3.1.1 Questionnaire survey .................................................................................................... 49 3.1.2 Telephone interviews .................................................................................................... 51 3.2 Results ................................................................................................................................ 53 3.2.1 Observations related to changes in weather patterns ...................................................... 54 3.2.2 Year-to-year changes in drinking-water sources ............................................................ 56 3.2.3 Climate predictions ....................................................................................................... 57 3.2.4 Vulnerability and reliability (in terms of quality and quantity) of the facilities .............. 58 3.2.5 Changing use of drinking-water supply and sanitation facilities .................................... 62 3.2.6 Policy issues ................................................................................................................. 63 3.3 Key outcomes ...................................................................................................................... 68 4. FORECAST OF WATER AND SANITATION COVERAGE IN 2020 ............................. 69 4.1 Forecasting method ............................................................................................................. 69 4.1.1 JMP linear regression method ....................................................................................... 70 4.1.2 Long-term forecasting method ...................................................................................... 70 4.2 Limitations of the forecasting data and method .................................................................... 71 4.3 Forecasts for water supply and sanitation facilities .............................................................. 72 4.3.1 Summary of progress .................................................................................................... 73 4.3.2 Types of improved water supply and sanitation facilities .............................................. 76 4.4 Key outcomes ...................................................................................................................... 78 5. DETERMINING THE RESILIENCE OF WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION FACILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................... 78 5.1 Piped water supplies ............................................................................................................ 80 5.1.1 Increased rainfall .......................................................................................................... 81 5.1.2 Decreased rainfall ......................................................................................................... 82 5.1.3 Increased intensity of rainfall ........................................................................................ 82 5.2 Protected wells .................................................................................................................... 82 5.2.1 Increased rainfall .......................................................................................................... 83 5.2.2 Decreased rainfall ......................................................................................................... 83 5.2.3 Increased intensity of rainfall ........................................................................................ 83 5.3 Protected springs ................................................................................................................. 84 5.3.1 Increased rainfall .......................................................................................................... 84 5.3.2 Decreased rainfall ......................................................................................................... 84 5.3.3 Increased intensity of rainfall ........................................................................................ 84 5.4 Rainwater collection ............................................................................................................ 85 5.4.1 Increased rainfall .......................................................................................................... 85 5.4.2 Decreased rainfall ........................................................................................................
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