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Scenario Planning: Tune in to Possible Futures, Risks, and Actions Host: Mike Kearney, Partner and Chief Marketing Officer, Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory LLP

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Scenario Planning: Tune in to Possible Futures, Risks, and Actions Host: Mike Kearney, Partner and Chief Marketing Officer, Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory LLP Resilient: Confronting the COVID-19 crisis Episode 8 | April 2020 Resilient: Confronting the COVID-19 crisis Actionable insights to help businesses respond and recover Episode 8: Scenario planning: Tune in to possible futures, risks, and actions Host: Mike Kearney, partner and chief marketing officer, Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory LLP Guests: Peter Schwartz, futurist and senior vice president, Strategic Planning, Salesforce Andrew Blau, managing director, Deloitte Consulting LLP Mike Kearney: Welcome to Resilient. My senior vice president of strategic planning at the San Francisco area. And obviously, name is Mike Kearney, the Deloitte Risk & Salesforce. one of the things that is top of mind for Financial Advisory CMO. As part of a new everybody as we’re sheltering in place is series on the Resilient podcast, we are Both Peter and Andrew are kind of famous what we’re doing just to manage our well- continuing to shift our focus to the evolving for pioneering scenario planning back in the being. So, I just wanted to start off with a impact of COVID-19. The special series is all day, which is why they recently published a light question, and that is, what are you about providing actionable insights to help point of view that looks at possible scenarios doing to take care of yourself during these you think through what you’re facing now that could take place and questions that times? And maybe, Andrew, I’ll start and what to do next. Today, we gathered two leaders should be asking today to help with you. leaders to explore a few future scenarios that shape their strategy in managing through they have developed on COVID-19; they will the current crisis, the recovery and beyond. Andrew Blau: Sure. Thanks, Mike. also share the uncertainties that contributed So let’s get to it: my conversation with These are just incredible times—so little to these scenarios and how leaders can use Andrew and Peter. to compare them to. For me, there are a them in planning for the future. First up is couple things I really try and focus on, the Andrew Blau, a managing director who leads Peter and Andrew, we were talking before few things that do feel like they’re maybe Deloitte’s signature issues program. Joining we jumped on about the beautiful weather in my control, like taking care of my family, Andrew is Peter Schwartz, a futurist and that we’re in right now in the East Bay within like cooking together. If we’re going to be Scenario planning: Tune in to possible futures, risks, and actions | Resilient: Confronting the COVID-19 crisis E8 sheltered in place at home, let’s make home So scenario planning is a tool created to us, like me, this was a moment of maximum a good place to be. So I do that. I’ve also help leaders think about and manage the uncertainty. A moment that actually invited been finding myself checking in with friends uncertainty that is in their lives in order to scenario thinking. And good scenario a lot more. I’ll go out for a walk and I’ll just make better decisions. Scenarios, at one thinking is usually done in teams. So it was open up my phone and sort of flip through level, are stories, and they’re nothing more a natural thing for this group of people to my contacts and who I have not talked to than that, but they’re nothing less than that. want to come together. Most of us have in a while and just call them. Because I feel They’re stories told in a rigorous, methodical worked together for almost 20 years, or like we’re all hungry to be connected. And way designed to enable the people who longer in some cases. And so the moment so thinking about just calling someone to create or use the stories to see choices they and the history brought us together. say, “Hey, I’m thinking of you, how are you might not have seen before—scenarios or doing?” Those are things that I hope are stories that allow you to see possibilities Mike Kearney: Awesome. Andrew, have good for those people, and I know they’re in the future by focusing on what’s really anything to add? good for me, too. uncertain rather than what is certain, and how might those uncertainties add up in Andrew Blau: Yeah, I think that’s right. Mike Kearney: Yeah, I actually create a list surprising ways. It was a moment. Listen, these are of five people every day that I try to call. extraordinary times, and extraordinary And it’s kind of the highlight of my day. So They’re used by leaders to do all kinds of times invite extraordinary collaboration. great tip. things. They’re used by leaders to identify As Peter said, we’re a group that in various strategic choices. What are options that we configurations have worked together for Peter, how about you? What are you doing to might have if the future turns out different decades, in one form or another. And the take care of yourself in these trying times? than the one we expect? They are similarly chance to reconnect and get this group of used to identify risks. What are the things extraordinary scenario planners into one Peter Schwartz: Well, like everybody, I feel that might be coming at us over the horizon virtual chat room, or to get us together again badly for so many people in the world who that we’re not prepared for? They’re used to think about what could be the biggest are in much worse circumstances than I am, for innovation. Scenarios can be a start to challenge that many of us in organizations but the honest truth is I’m in pretty good allow you to see the outlines of markets are going to face, was too good an circumstances. I have a beautiful home. I’m that you haven’t seen before or consumer opportunity to pass up. I can’t remember getting to spend more time with my wife, behaviors that you haven’t imagined before. where exactly it started or who had the and I’m truly enjoying it. We live in an area And in some cases, they’re actually used to first idea. where it’s easy to get good food. So I have do executive education and organizational no complaint of the life I’m living day-to-day. design. Who are the people that we need Peter Schwartz: You initiated it. I love being here. I love being with my wife. to be to lead in the future? So they’re I’m feeling like my work is giving me a lot of very flexible. They have been enormously Andrew Blau: Thank you. We were already opportunity to contribute. I love walking. powerful for organizations for now decades. thinking at Deloitte, obviously, our clients We go for a long walk every day, both for But at their heart, they are stories about need to respond to the crisis on the exercise and, you know, to get out. the future designed to create and support doorstep, and how can we help them do better decisions today. that? But the crisis will pass, and thinking Mike Kearney: Absolutely. I’m going to be scenarically about what might come seemed taking a hike after this. Andrew, let’s move Mike Kearney: So, Peter, as a teacher, like a natural opportunity. The chance . to you. I want to have you describe what how did the student do? Once Peter said, “I’d be interested in having scenario planning is. I think, you know, when that conversation with you,” well, it just took you listen to the term, I think it’s pretty Peter Schwartz: Just fine, and he aced off from there. And pretty soon, it was just logical, but can you talk about what the the test. this extraordinary group of scenario thinkers science behind scenario planning is and how who all just showed up and said, “Yeah, I leaders actually use it to identify different Mike Kearney: Good job. So, Peter, want to be in that conversation with you options about the future and even potential Andrew, you just wrote The world remade guys.” And it was a thrill to be part of. risks? So let’s just ground ourselves in what by COVID-19. Planning scenarios for resilient it is before we move forward. leaders. And this was a joint effort by Deloitte Mike Kearney: And, Andrew, Peter, who did and Salesforce. What spurred you coming you actually bring? When you say a group Andrew Blau: Sure. Let me just start by together? Why did you guys write it? Peter, I’ll of scenario thinkers, it obviously wasn’t just saying it is both an honor and you know, start with you. the two of you. Who else contributed to it? a challenge to try and define scenario And you don’t have to give all the names, but planning with Peter Schwartz on the line, Peter Schwartz: Well, look, this is a group folks and their backgrounds—please share. who literally wrote the book that we all learn of people who’ve worked together for a long from. So he’ll tell me whether I’m doing a time. And we were all, each of us, individually Andrew Blau: Yeah. Peter is a very good job or not. wrestling with the fact that I suspect for all of generous, very collaborative leader.
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