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North East Wales Housing Market Assessment

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North East Wales Housing Market Assessment North East Wales HMA Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC March 2008 www.gvagrimley.co.uk Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................1 2. DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET ........................................................................5 3. HOUSING MARKETS...............................................................................................20 4. DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS OF DEMAND...............................................................26 5. ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF CHANGE.......................................................................71 6. HOUSING STOCK ASSESSMENT........................................................................119 7. ACTIVE MARKET ASSESSMENT.........................................................................141 8. STRATEGIC DRIVERS OF THE NORTH EAST WALES HOUSING MARKET ...196 9. HOUSING NEED ....................................................................................................201 10. FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS..................................................................230 11. ASSESSING CAPACITY........................................................................................262 12. SUB-MARKET AREA ANALYSIS..........................................................................279 13. CONCLUSION ............................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 14. MONITORING FRAMEWORK................................................................................308 March 2008 Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 GVA Grimley LLP were commissioned alongside the University of Bangor by the Partnership of Flintshire and Denbighshire County Councils and Wrexham County Borough Council to undertake a joint Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) to broadly cover the administrative areas of the Partnership Councils. 1.2 The purpose of the study is to inform Local Authority Housing Strategies and Development Plans (UDP/LDP) for 2007. Guidance 1.3 Methodologies for understanding and monitoring the housing supply/demand dynamic have become increasingly comprehensive and robust as approaches to assessing need and demand have been continuously refined. The need to understand and plan for the links between housing and the economy has become a key component of analysing and modelling future housing markets, as has the awareness of the importance of planning for ‘housing market areas’ which no longer are restricted by administrative boundaries. 1.4 The Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) Guidance on Local Housing Market Assessments reflects and further refines the comparable Guidance produced for England by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) which provides a clear indication of a proposed approach to producing Local HMA’s. 1.5 The approach taken within this LHMA follows this guidance and looks to answer the core questions and objectives which are outlined below. Objectives 1.6 The National Housing Strategy for Wales, Better Homes for People in Wales, outlines the Assembly Government’s vision for housing: “for everyone in Wales to have the opportunity to live in good quality, affordable housing, to be able to choose where they live and decide whether buying or renting is best for them and their families.” 1.7 In order to address this vision this assessment addresses five key questions: March 2008 1 Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC • Where are we now? – A clear understanding of the spatial extent of the current housing market is required and its inherent challenges and distinct characteristics based on a robust analysis of the evidence base; • How did we get here? – Identification of the current and future drivers of change within the housing market using analysis of past trends impacting on the housing market; • Where are we going? – Development of the key characteristics/nature of the projected housing market in 2012 and forwards up to 2021. A clear identification of the factors creating these future housing markets and the likely broad future scale, type and location of housing demand; • What are the implications? – Identifying what will be required to deliver the change required in terms of meeting future need/demand; and • How do we get there? – Proposals regarding the best way to meet these challenges and the required changes to ensure that the objectives of housing and planning policy are achieved. This includes recommendations regarding the future governance structures required to implement policy and the monitoring of future housing market change. 1.8 These questions establish the core objectives of this study upon which conclusions are reached. Spatial context 1.9 The three authorities which have commissioned this research, Wrexham, Flintshire and Denbighshire, form the Core Study Area. This Study Area fits within a wider sub-region which looks to the East into Chester and Ellesmere Port in England and to the West to Conwy. To the south are the more rural areas of Shropshire, with Oswestry in close proximity to Wrexham. 1.10 The eastern area of North East Wales is relatively well connected by the road network with linkages to the major motorway network, including the M56, M53 and M6. Connections are therefore relatively good to the major English Cities of Chester, Manchester, Liverpool and even Birmingham. High levels of commuting do create capacity hotspots at key junctions on a number of the arterial roads. Rail connections, however, are relatively poor with infrequent services between the major towns in the authorities and English cities including Chester and Liverpool. 1.11 Significant parts of the three authorities are rural in nature, with this being particularly true of Denbighshire. These areas represent an extremely attractive natural environment with the March 2008 2 Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC Snowdonia National Park located in close proximity covering parts of Conwy. Access issues are however a significant issue for these rural areas in relation to both access to employment and key services. 1.12 The sea forms a natural boundary to Flintshire and Denbighshire to the north and east and has also helped to shape the evolution of settlements along the coast, including the tourist roles of Rhyl and Prestatyn in Denbighshire and the industrial related activities of towns along the Dee Estuary. 1.13 The study area has a distinct spatial geography shaped by natural geographies as well as economic linkages which stretch across the English border. These two factors are key in assessing the housing market as a whole and are given key consideration in evaluating the analysis and the conclusions reached. Structure of the HMA 1.14 This document is structured to provide the following information: • Section 2 - Defining the Housing Market – recapitulation of the Stage 11 findings • Section 3 - Housing markets – headline assessment of the key drivers affecting the housing market • Section 4 - Demographic Drivers of Demand – a critical review of population and household based drivers • Section 5 - Economic Drivers of Change – examination of economic performance and prospects , including a review of the current labour force • Section 6 - Housing Stock Assessment – a detailed examination of the housing stock characteristics including an assessment of the extent of imbalance within the current supply • Section 7 - Active Market Assessment – an assessment of the ‘active market’ including an assessment of affordability and market change • Section 8 - Strategic Drivers of the North East Wales Housing Market – a summary of the key messages emerging from the preceding chapters of analysis • Section 9 - Housing Need – a review of the Housing Need Studies undertaken and an updating of key indicators 1 Stage 1 Report – Defining the Functional Housing Market and Strategic Context – GVA Grimley June 2007 March 2008 3 Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC • Section 10 - Future Housing Requirements – identification of overall housing requirements over the plan period including a breakdown by type. • Section 11 - Assessing Capacity – summary analysis of the available housing land within the authorities set against the conclusions of the previous section including delivery constraints for affordable housing • Section 12 - Sub-Market Analysis – headline analysis of the sub-market areas and the unique housing issues faced based on the analysis within the study • Section 13 - Conclusion – Outline of findings and policy recommendations • Section 14 - Monitoring Framework – Framework to enable ongoing updating of research and analysis March 2008 4 Wrexham CBC, Flintshire BC, Denbighshire BC 2. DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET 2.1 The first Stage of the commission involved identifying the spatial geographies of the housing market and a separate report detailing this analysis accompanies this study2. The key findings of this analysis are included here and set the geographical study area for the remainder of this assessment. 2.2 As a result of research surrounding functional spatial areas such as City Regions there has been a steady recognition of the value of planning at this level. This is reflected within the WAG Local Housing Market Assessment guidance (referred to from now on as the WAG Guidance) which promotes authorities to work together and form partnerships for ‘functional housing market areas’. 2.3 The WAG Guidance defines functional housing markets as: “the
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