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Appendix C Fiscal and Economics-Related Greybarn-Sayville PDD-GS Change of Zone Application DEIS APPENDIX C FISCAL AND ECONOMICS-RELATED DOCUMENTS Greybarn-Sayville PDD-GS Change of Zone Application DEIS Appendix C-1 Market Analysis for the Proposed Greybarn Sayville Project bae urban economics November 29, 2018 bae urban economics Market Analysis for the Proposed Greybarn Sayville Project Prepared for Rechler Equity Partners November 29, 2018 bae urban economics November 29, 2018 Gregg Rechler, Managing Partner Mitchell Rechler, Managing Partner Rechler Equity Partners 85 South Service Road Plainview, NY 11803 Dear Messrs. Gregg and Mitchell Rechler: On behalf of BAE Urban Economics, Inc., I am pleased to submit this Market Analysis of the Proposed Greybarn Sayville Project. Research for this analysis was prepared July-August 2018. Through analysis of demographic, employment, and real estate data collected we have determined there is sufficient market demand for the proposed apartment development in the study area. Should you have any questions about the analysis, please contact me at [email protected] or (202) 588-8945. Sincerely, Mary Burkholder Vice President, BAE Urban Economics San Francisco Sacramento Los Angeles Washington DC New York City 2600 10th St., Suite 300 803 2nd St., Suite A 448 South Hill St., Suite 701 700 Pennsylvania Ave. SE, 2nd Floor 215 Park Ave. S, 6th Floor Berkeley, CA 94710 Davis, CA 95616 Los Angeles, CA 90013 Washington, DC 20003 New York, NY 10003 510.547.9380 530.750.2195 213.471.2666 202.588.8945 212.683.4486 www.bae1.com Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 7 KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 7 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 12 Geographies .............................................................................................................................. 12 Data Sources ............................................................................................................................. 14 BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................................... 16 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 18 Population and Households ..................................................................................................... 18 Household Composition ............................................................................................................ 18 Household Income .................................................................................................................... 20 Age ............................................................................................................................................. 22 Race and Ethnicity .................................................................................................................... 24 Educational Attainment ............................................................................................................ 25 Resident Employment ............................................................................................................... 26 Resident Commutes .................................................................................................................. 29 LOCAL EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 32 Jobs ............................................................................................................................................ 32 Top Employers ........................................................................................................................... 34 Worker Commutes .................................................................................................................... 38 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS ..................................................................... 39 All Housing Units ....................................................................................................................... 39 Multifamily Rental Housing....................................................................................................... 42 Homeownership ........................................................................................................................ 48 Competitive Projects ................................................................................................................. 51 Housing Affordability Analysis .................................................................................................. 53 ASSESSMENT OF PROJECT DEMAND ...................................................................................... 59 Housing Demand Projections ................................................................................................... 59 Demand Drivers for Multifamily Rental Housing ..................................................................... 61 The Housing Spectrum.............................................................................................................. 67 Greybarn Sayville Household Profiles ...................................................................................... 68 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 70 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................ 71 Appendix A: Supplementary Figures and Tables for the Market Analysis ............................. 71 Appendix B: Demographics of Greybarn Amityville ................................................................. 78 List of Tables Table 1: Population, Households, and Average Household Size, 2010 – 2018 ........................ 18 Table 2: Median Age, 2010 – 2018 .............................................................................................. 22 Table 3: Unemployment, 2018 ...................................................................................................... 27 Table 4: Major Public Employers, Central Long Island ................................................................. 35 Table 5: Other Major Employers, Central Long Island .................................................................. 36 Table 6: Median Year Built, all Housing Units ............................................................................... 39 Table 7: Detailed Tenure Breakdown in the Greater Sayville Area, with and without Greybarn Sayville ............................................................................................................................................. 42 Table 8: Pipeline Projects in Central Long Island, July 2018 ....................................................... 48 Table 9: Competitive Multifamily Projects in Central Long Island, July 2018 ............................. 52 Table 10: Competitive Condominium Projects in Central Long Island, July 2018 ..................... 53 Table 11: Maximum Affordable Monthly Rental Housing Costs, Suffolk County, 2018 ............ 54 Table 12: Affordability of Available Rental Housing in Central Long Island as Advertised on Zillow.com, August 2018 ................................................................................................................ 55 Table 13: Affordable For-Sale Single Family Home Prices for in Suffolk County, 2018 ............. 56 Table 14: Affordability of Available For-Sale Housing in Central Long Island as Advertised on Zillow.com, August 2018 ................................................................................................................ 57 Table 15: Household Income Levels Served by the Greybarn Sayville Project ........................... 58 Table 16: Household Growth through 2040 in Central Long Island ............................................ 59 Table 17: Projected Housing Unit Demand and Required Capture, 2018 - 2030 ..................... 60 Table 18: Projected Housing Unit Demand through 2030 and Required Capture by Household Income ............................................................................................................................................. 61 Table 19: Homeownership among Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials, 2015 ............... 62 Table 20: Education Debt by Generation, 2017 ........................................................................... 64 List of Figures Figure 1: Greater Sayville Area ...................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2: Central Long Island ......................................................................................................... 13 Figure 3: New York Metro Area ...................................................................................................... 14 Figure 4: Island Hills Golf Club ....................................................................................................... 16 Figure 5: Greybarn Sayville Site Plan ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 6: Planned Exterior and Interior,
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