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Tencen t Holdi ngs L td ( 700 HK; TP HKD4 35.0 0; BUY)

Equity Research Huatai Research

1 April 2019

Embracing new development initiatives

New initiatives businesses will lead revenue growth This year heralds Tencent Holdings Ltd’s (Tencent) evolution towards providing industrial internet services. Already confident about its long-term competitiveness in online games, entertainment and advertising industry, we are positive on Tencent’s innovations to lift its competitiveness in the industrial internet and internet finance industries. We forecast that by 2020, these new initiatives will be Tencent’s dominant revenue contributors. In view of the long-term value we expect these new initiatives to bring, we lift our SOTP-based target price by 3.8% to HKD435.0, which Key data implies 39x 2019E and 29x 2020E PE under non-GAAP. Maintain BUY.

Strategic reform to support industrial internet development We expect industrial Internet services — fintech and cloud businesses — to become the company’s leading growth drivers in the next three years. We put revenue growth for these new initiatives at 58/48/40% in 2019/2020/2021, with revenue of RMB255.3bn in 2021 accounting for 40.1% of total revenue. Tencent looks well-placed to provide unique services to enterprises, helping them to digitize and to improve efficiency, customer management and marketing effectiveness.

Share performance Online game revenue will gradually pick up from 2H19E Online game license approvals have gradually resumed in , after being on hold for about nine months. We expect more highly-anticipated Tencent titles to come out from 2Q19 onwards. For 2019/2020/2021, we forecast mobile game revenue growth of 15/13/12% yoy, and PC game revenue decline of 4.0/0.5/0.5%.

Core ecosystem offers superior competitiveness Adverting and enterprise clients are all seeking a better return in their advertising and business operation investments. We continue to believe Tencent’s superior

technology and abundant user behavior data give the company an edge over competitors that enable it to offer better ROI to its advertising and business clients. Source: FactSet We forecast online ad revenue will continue to grow strongly at 34/27/23% in 2019/2020/2021.

Earnings growth outlook forecasts Our revenue forecasts for 2019/2020/2021 are largely unchanged, while our earnings forecasts are adjusted down by 4.2/4.8/1.5% to RMB89.9/110.7/136.3bn to reflect the revenue structure change. We forecast 17.6% earnings CAGR during 2019-2021, with earnings growth to reaccelerate from 2020 onwards.

Financials

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates

Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited is abbreviated as Huatai HK throughout this report. 1 Please refer to end pages for analyst certification and required disclosures.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Valuation methodology We derive our target price for Tencent using SOTP methodology. We lift our SOTP based target price by 3.8% to HKD435.0, as we are more positive on the development progress of Tencent’s to-merchants business, which can create unique value for enterprises seeking to digitalize.

We use a DCF model to derive the value of Tencent’s core businesses, which suggests a value of HKD361.0 per share. We also estimate a value of HKD74 per share for Tencent’s strategic investments. We calculate the value by using the market cap multiplied by ownership of listed companies in which Tencent has made investments, and the historical transaction value multiplied by ownership of unlisted companies in which Tencent has invested.

Our new target price of HKD435.0 for Tencent implies 39x 2019E and 30x 2020E PE under non-GAAP measure. Maintain BUY.

Fig.1. Tencent: SOTP model — discount rate of 11.0%, terminal growth rate of 3.0% (RMBbn) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Net revenue 402.7 510.4 636.8 767.9 887.7 993.8 NPV of FCF 1,154.5 1,153.5 1,106.8 1,031.0 902.7 745.9 Discounted terminal value 1,792.8 1,990.0 2,208.9 2,451.9 2,721.6 3,021.0 Tencent core valuation 2,947.4 3,143.5 3,315.8 3,483.0 3,624.3 3,766.9 Number of shares (diluted, mn) 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 Valuation per share (HKD) - core business 361.0 385.0 406.1 426.6 443.9 461.4 Valuation per share (HKD) - investment 74.0 77.7 81.6 85.7 89.9 94.4 Valuation per share (HKD) - Tencent 435.0 462.7 487.7 512.2 533.8 555.8

Source: Huatai HK Research estimates

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Business segment forecast Our total revenue forecasts for 2019/2020/2021 are largely unchanged, and we forecast the Other segment (mainly payment & fintech and cloud businesses) will lead revenue growth and to become the largest revenue contributor by the end of 2019. We continue to believe Tencent’s market-leading position in the online gaming and social networking segments remains solid.

We forecast Tencent total revenue to grow by 28.8/26.8/24.8% in 2019/2020/2021 to reach RMB636.8bn in 2021. We expect Tencent to deliver 17.6% earnings CAGR during 2019-2021, with net income reaching RMB127.9bn in 2021.

Online games, social networking services (SNS), online advertising and Other revenue accounted for 33.3%, 23.2%, 18.6%, and 24.9% of total revenue in 2018, respectively, and we expect them to contribute 27.3%, 22.7%, 19.4% and 30.6% of total revenue in 2019.

Fig.2. Tencent: total revenue Fig.3. Tencent: revenue mix

SNS Online games (RMBbn) (%) SNS Online games Online advertising Other Online advertising Other (yoy%) 700 Growth (rhs) 60 100 11.3 90 18.2 600 24.9 30.6 50 80 17.8 35.7 17.0 500 70 40 18.6 60 19.4 400 19.3 30 50 46.6 41.2 300 40 33.3 27.3 20 23.1 200 30 20 100 10 10 24.3 23.6 23.2 22.7 21.9 0 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E

Note: SNS – social networking services Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates

We lower our earnings forecast for 2019/2020/2021 by 4.2/4.8/1.5% to RMB59.9/110.7/136.3bn, mainly to reflect: 1) greater revenue contribution from new initiative businesses such as cloud and payment still need time to turn profitable; and 2) a lower margin assumption for the VAS business segment as the revenue contribution from the lower-margin digital content business looks set to increase. We expect the content investment for its video business to be more closely controlled in 2019 than in previous years. In 4Q18, Tencent started to control the cost of less-effective marketing, and we think the company still has enough room to improve operating leverage. We expect S&M and G&A expenses as a percentage of total revenue to decrease from 7.7% and 13.3% respectively in 2018 to 7.2% and 12.3% in 2019.

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Fig.4. Tencent: net income forecast Fig.5. Tencent: GPM

(RMBbn) (yoy%) (%) Overall GPM VAS GPM 160 Net income Growth (rhs) 70 80 Online advertising GPM Other GPM 70 140 60 60 120 50 50 100 40 40 80 30 30 60 20 20 40 10 10 20 0

0 0

1Q16 2Q18 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2Q16 Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Note: VAS – value added services Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research

Fig.6. Huatai estimates vs Bloomberg consensus (RMBmn) 2019E 2020E 2021E

Revenue Huatai estimates - previous 400,781.0 511,994.0 635,606.3 Huatai estimates - new 402,678.8 510,397.6 636,766.1 % difference (new vs previous) 0.5 (0.3) 0.2 Bloomberg consensus 400,841.0 510,215.0 629,601.0

% difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) 0.5 0.0 1.1 Gross income Huatai estimates - previous 183,006.0 232,413.0 282,972.7 Huatai estimates - new 173,896.5 214,844.5 264,371.3 % difference (new vs previous) (5.0) (7.6) (6.6) Bloomberg consensus 175,263.7 220,048.8 264,199.6

% difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) (0.8) (2.4) 0.1 Operating income Huatai estimates - previous 118,252.0 147,258.0 176,082.7 Huatai estimates - new 112,269.2 137,856.1 169,255.0 % difference (new vs previous) (5.1) (6.4) (3.9) Bloomberg consensus 89,719.8 113,201.0 137,367.0

% difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) 0.8 (1.4) 0.4 Net income Huatai estimates - previous 93,775.0 116,295.0 138,373.3 Huatai estimates - new 89,881.1 110,699.6 136,281.3 % difference (new vs previous) (4.2) (4.8) (1.5) Bloomberg consensus 89,719.8 113,201.0 137,367.0 % difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) 0.2 (2.2) (0.8)

Source: Bloomberg, Huatai HK Research estimates

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Fig.7. Tencent: segment forecast (RMBbn) 2019E 2020E 2021E VAS revenue 201.5 229.4 259.8 SNS revenue 91.5 111.7 27.5 yoy% 26.0 22.0 21.7 Online game revenue 110.0 117.7 29.2 yoy% 5.8 7.0 7.5 Mobile games 61.4 17.0 17.3 yoy% 15.0 18.0 14.9 PC games 12.6 12.1 11.9 yoy% (10.4) (5.9) (4.0) Online advertising revenue 78.0 98.7 121.7 yoy% 34.2 26.6 23.3 Other revenue 123.2 182.3 255.3 yoy% 58.0 48.0 40.0 Total revenue 402.7 510.4 636.8 yoy% 28.8 26.8 24.8 Gross income 173.9 214.8 264.4 GPM (%) 43.2 42.1 41.5 Operating income 112.3 137.9 169.3 OPM (%) 27.9 27.0 26.6 Net income 89.9 110.7 136.3 yoy% 14.2 23.2 23.1 NPM (%) 22.3 21.7 21.4

Source: Huatai HK Research estimates

Online games (33.3% of 2018 total revenue) With the speed of online game license approval picking up in China, we expect more highly-anticipated titles from Tencent to be released from 2Q19 onwards. We forecast 2019/2020/2021 overall game business revenue to grow by 5.8/7.0/6.9%, mainly driven by mobile game growth and partly offset by the decline of PC games.

Fig.8. Tencent: mobile game business Fig.9. Tencent: PC game business

(RMBbn) (yoy%) (RMBbn) (yoy%) 90 Mobile games Growth (rhs) 90 56 PC games Growth (rhs) 20 80 80 54 15 70 70 52 60 60 10 50 50 50 5 40 40 48 30 30 0 46 20 20 (5) 10 10 44 0 0 42 (10) 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Mobile games We forecast smartphone game revenue to grow by 15/13/12% yoy in 2019/2020/2021, to reach RMB77.7bn in 2021. We expect 1Q19 to be a soft quarter for Tencent mobile game on a year-on-year basis, due to the high base in 1Q18 and the limited number of new exciting games slated for release in 1Q19. Mobile game revenue growth should normalize in 2Q19 onwards, in our view. The competitive edge for Tencent’s games remains solid, leveraging its strong research and development capabilities as well as its cost-effective distribution channel, in our view.

Tencent held its UP2019 Conference in Beijing on 24 March, and introduced 19 game products during the conference, including six mobile games, seven games from the Tencent A.C.E. program, four culture-integrated games and two games the company collaborated on with overseas partners. We are positive on the quality and content of Tencent’s game pipeline, especially for Raja (龙族幻想), JX III (剑网三), and Code: survival (代号: 生机).

PC games We believe PC games will still face pressure in 2019E as few new PC game titles are are timetabled for launch and users’ continued shift towards mobile games. We forecast PC game revenue to decline by 4/0.5/0.5% in 2019/2020/2021 to reach RMB48.1bn in 2021.

Fig.10. Tencent: game release pipeline Game title Game title (Chinese) Publisher/Developer Genre IP Progress Dragon Raja 龙族幻想 Licensed MMORPG Yes Open beta test in summer 2019 JX Online 剑侠情缘 2:剑歌行 Licensed MMORPG Yes To be released in 2019 JX3 剑网 3:指尖江湖 Licensed MMORPG Yes Open beta test in 2Q19 Game of Throne 权力的游戏:凛冬将至 Licensed SLG Yes To be released in 2Q19 Master Warrior 王牌战士 Self-developed FPS No Open test in April 2019 Code LN (PC) 代号 LN(端游) Self-developed TPS No TBD Moonlight Blade 天涯明月刀 Self-developed MMORPG Yes Open beta test in March 2019 Fox Spirit 狐妖小红娘 Self-developed MMORPG Yes To be released in 2Q19 Dungeon 元素地牢 Licensed ARPG No TBD Slay the Spire 尖塔奇兵 Licensed Card No TBD Stardew Valley 星露谷物语 Licensed Card No TBD Chio Hero 奇奥英雄传 Licensed Card No TBD My Origin 我的起源 Co-developed RPG No TBD Code: Survival 代号:生机 Self-developed Survival No TBD 1001 一零零一 Self-developed - No TBD Brawl Stars 荒野乱斗 Licensed SLG No TBD Call of Duty 使命召唤 Co-developed FPS Yes TBD DnF Mobile 地下城与勇士 Licensed Action Yes TBD Journey to Fairyland 寻仙 2 Licensed RPG Yes TBD Need for Speed Online 极品飞车手游 Licensed Racing Yes TBD CHUCHEL 脸黑先生 Licensed Leisure No TBD Soccer Manager 2018 足球经理 2018 Licensed SLG No TBD Raziel 拉结尔 Licensed ARPG No TBD Tail Mobile 妖精的尾巴:魔导少年 Self-developed RPG Yes TBD Sprite Hunter 一起来捉妖 Self-developed Collection No TBD Crazyracing Kartrider 跑跑卡丁车 Licensed Racing Yes TBD Hunter x Hunter 全职猎人 Licensed ARPG Yes TBD Dragon Ball Mobile 龙珠最强之战 Licensed MMORPG Yes TBD Evoland 2 进化之地 2 Licensed RPG No TBD Yu Tian Chuan Qi 御天传奇 Self-developed ARPG No TBD Magic the Gathering: Arena (PC) 万智牌:竞技场(端游) Licensed TCG No TBD Handmade Planet (PC) 手工星球 Licensed Sandbox No TBD

Note: RPG - role-playing games; MMORPG – massively multiplayer online role-playing games; Action – action games; SLG – simulation and strategy games; Card – card games; Casual – casual games; Racing – racing games; Sports – sports games; ARPG - action role-playing games; Collection – collection games; FPS - first- person shooter games; TCG - Trading card games Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

SNS business (28.5% of total revenue) We forecast Tencent SNS revenue to grow by 26/22/20% in 2019/2020/2021 to reach RMB134.0bn in 2021, representing 21% of total revenue, driven by its digital content services. We continue to believe that Tencent’s content ecosystem will help it to further expand its intellectual property value, and maximize the monetization by deepening development across the industry value chain.

Total registered subscriptions of Tencent’s fee-based VAS reached 160.3mn in 4Q18, representing 19.1% yoy growth, primarily driven by the rapid growth in subscriptions for Tencent Video and Tencent’s music services. Tencent Video continues to expand market share in China in terms of mobile DAU and paying subscriptions.

Fig.11. Tencent: VAS business Fig.12. Tencent: SNS business

(RMBbn) (yoy%) (RMBbn) (yoy%) 300 VAS Growth (rhs) 45 160 SNS Growth (rhs) 60

40 140 250 50 35 120 200 30 40 100 25 150 80 30 20 60 100 15 20 10 40 50 10 5 20

0 0 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates

Fig.13. Tencent: fee-based VAS registered subscriptions Fig.14. Tencent video: number of subscribers

(mn) Fee-based VAS registered subscriptions (yoy%) (mn) 180 Growth (rhs) 35 100

160 30 90 140 80 25 120 70 100 20 60 80 15 50 60 40 10 40 30 20 5 20 0 0 10

0

1Q17 4Q18 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 1Q16 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research

Fig.15. Tencent: content platforms Platform Monetization User base Video Free; monthly subscription fee for VIP privileges/premium content (RMB20); item sales 89.0mn subscriptions (4Q18) Music (Tencent Music Free; monthly subscription fee for VIP privileges/premium content (RMB8-20); item sales 644mn MAU across all platforms (4Q18); Entertainment Group) 27.0mn subscriptions (4Q18) Online literature Free; item sales and monthly subscription fee for VIP privileges/premium content (RMB15) 213.5mn MAU (2018; China Literature) (China Literature) Anime and manga Free; item sales na Sports Free; monthly subscription fee for additional NBA Games (RMB30-90) na Live broadcast Free; item sales na

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Online advertising (20.1% of total revenue) Amid macro uncertainties, we believe advertisers will re-allocate their marketing budget to seek better ROI. Tencent will continue to enhance advertising ROI and deliver value to merchants, in our view, and we believe it will be able to maintain healthy advertising revenue growth in 2019, leveraging its large unmonetized traffic. The ad loads on Tencent’s platforms are lower than the industry average, which should support the long- term sustainable growth of its advertising revenue.

After the recent strategic organization upgrade, Tencent merged its advertising sales teams, enabling them to sell both brand ads and performance ads, and centralized the advertising data analysis platform to provide more powerful targeting capabilities. As a results, key account advertisers are able to coordinate sales coverage and buy advertising products more efficiently, and SME advertisers can bid for advertising inventory in a timely and efficient manner.

We forecast online advertising revenue to grow by 34.2/26.6/23.3% in 2019/2020/2021 to reach RMB121.7bn in 2021E, or 19.1% of total revenue. We still believe that Tencent has significant potential to monetize its large user base.

Fig.16. Tencent: online advertising revenue (RMBbn) (yoy%) 140 Online advertising Growth (rhs) 60

120 50 100 40 80 30 60 20 40

20 10

0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research

Specifically, we forecast social advertising revenue to grow by 34/30/26% in 2019/2020/2021 to reach RMB91.1bn in 2021, driven by WeChat Moment ads and mini program ads. We forecast media advertising revenue to grow by 22/18/16% in 2019/2020/2021, supported by more video and news advertising and more sponsorship advertising for self-commissioned content.

Fig.17. Tencent: media advertising Fig.18. Tencent: social advertising

(RMBbn) (yoy%) (RMBbn) (yoy%) 35 Media advertising Growth (rhs) 35 100 Social advertising Growth (rhs) 90 90 80 30 30 80 70 25 25 70 60 60 20 20 50 50 40 15 15 40 30 10 10 30 20 20 5 5 10 10 0 0 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Other business (24.9% of 2018 total revenue) We expect Other revenue to grow by 58/48/40% in 2019/2020/2021, with revenue to reach RMB255.3bn in 2021. We estimate the gross margin for Other business at 24.0/26.0/26.0% in 2019/2020/2021, benefiting from the scale effect of the cloud and payment businesses as well as greater revenue contribution from high margin fintech services, partly offset by a decline in high margin interest income.

Fig.19. Tencent: other business revenue Fig.20. China: mobile payment market share

(RMBbn) (yoy%) (%) 300 Other Growth (rhs) 300 80 Alipay Tenpay 70 250 250 60 200 200 50 40 150 150 30 100 100 20 10 50 50 0

0 0

4Q16 1Q17 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2Q15

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Source: Analysys, Huatai HK Research

Payment and fintech business Tencent is actively developing various financial services, such as LiCaitong, WeiLiDai and WeSure, to offer more services to enterprises and support its margin. By end-2018, LiCaiTong had reached 100mn cumulative users and helped manage RMB600bn of customer assets. WeiLiDai, Tencent’s micro-loan products for individual consumers, has grown its loan balance rapidly in recent quarters.

Leveraging WeChat and QQ traffic, the mobile payment MAU of Tencent Payment surpassed 800mn, with average daily transaction volume exceeding 1bn in 2018. The integration of mini programs and payment will also improve the total transaction volume of Tencent Payment.

Fig.21. Tencent: financial services Platform Monetization User base WeChat Pay Free; transaction take rate (0.6%-2%); withdrawal Over 800mn mobile payment (including both WeChat Pay and QQ Wallet) monthly active user fees (RMB1/1,000); credit card repayment charges accounts (2Q18); over 1bn transactions daily (2018); over 1mn accumulated users (4Q18); (RMB1/1,000) over RMB600bn in aggregated customer assets QQ Wallet Free; transaction take rate (0.6-2%) LiCaiTong Commission na WeiLiDai Interest rate (annualized 18%) na (WeBank) WeSure Free; commission na

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research Tencent Cloud: foundation for industrial internet Tencent strengthened its efforts on industrial internet solution and achieved early progress in late 2018. Tencent’s Cloud revenue more than doubled year on year to reach RMB9.1bn in 2018, with the number of customers also doubling. Tencent launched new IaaS and PaaS products in 4Q18. We believe Tencent Cloud will further deepen deployment in financial, retail, and other verticals via synergies with mini programs, WeChat Pay, social marketing and online security capabilities.

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Fig.22. Tencent: industrial internet deployment

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Full financials

Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Valuation methodology and risks statement Our SOTP-based target price of HKD435.0 for Tencent implies 39x 2019E and 30x 2020E PE under non-GAAP measure. Maintain BUY.

Downside risks: 1) competition from other social platforms; 2) slower-than-expected growth of mobile games business; and 3) change in regulatory environment may impact the growth of gaming and advertising businesses.

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Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. Saiyi HE; Yi YU; Ye TAO

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Legal Entity Disclosures China: HTSC is approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission under a qualification to carry out “securities investment consulting” business. Business license no: Z23032000. Hong Kong: Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited holds a license issued by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong to carry out “advising on securities” business. License no: AOK809.

Unit 5808-12, 58/F, The Center, 99 Queens Road Central, Central, HONG KONG Tel: +852 3658 6000 Email: [email protected]

Fax: +852 2169 0770 a http://www.htsc.com.hk/

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