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Embracing New Development Initiatives Tencen t Holdi ngs L td ( 700 HK; TP HKD4 35.0 0; BUY) Equity Research Huatai Research 1 April 2019 Embracing new development initiatives New initiatives businesses will lead revenue growth This year heralds Tencent Holdings Ltd’s (Tencent) evolution towards providing industrial internet services. Already confident about its long-term competitiveness in online games, entertainment and advertising industry, we are positive on Tencent’s innovations to lift its competitiveness in the industrial internet and internet finance industries. We forecast that by 2020, these new initiatives will be Tencent’s dominant revenue contributors. In view of the long-term value we expect these new initiatives to bring, we lift our SOTP-based target price by 3.8% to HKD435.0, which Key data implies 39x 2019E and 29x 2020E PE under non-GAAP. Maintain BUY. Strategic reform to support industrial internet development We expect industrial Internet services — fintech and cloud businesses — to become the company’s leading growth drivers in the next three years. We put revenue growth for these new initiatives at 58/48/40% in 2019/2020/2021, with revenue of RMB255.3bn in 2021 accounting for 40.1% of total revenue. Tencent looks well-placed to provide unique services to enterprises, helping them to digitize and to improve efficiency, customer management and marketing effectiveness. Share performance Online game revenue will gradually pick up from 2H19E Online game license approvals have gradually resumed in China, after being on hold for about nine months. We expect more highly-anticipated Tencent titles to come out from 2Q19 onwards. For 2019/2020/2021, we forecast mobile game revenue growth of 15/13/12% yoy, and PC game revenue decline of 4.0/0.5/0.5%. Core ecosystem offers superior competitiveness Adverting and enterprise clients are all seeking a better return in their advertising and business operation investments. We continue to believe Tencent’s superior technology and abundant user behavior data give the company an edge over competitors that enable it to offer better ROI to its advertising and business clients. Source: FactSet We forecast online ad revenue will continue to grow strongly at 34/27/23% in 2019/2020/2021. Earnings growth outlook forecasts Our revenue forecasts for 2019/2020/2021 are largely unchanged, while our earnings forecasts are adjusted down by 4.2/4.8/1.5% to RMB89.9/110.7/136.3bn to reflect the revenue structure change. We forecast 17.6% earnings CAGR during 2019-2021, with earnings growth to reaccelerate from 2020 onwards. Financials Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited is abbreviated as Huatai HK throughout this report. 1 Please refer to end pages for analyst certification and required disclosures. Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) Valuation methodology We derive our target price for Tencent using SOTP methodology. We lift our SOTP based target price by 3.8% to HKD435.0, as we are more positive on the development progress of Tencent’s to-merchants business, which can create unique value for enterprises seeking to digitalize. We use a DCF model to derive the value of Tencent’s core businesses, which suggests a value of HKD361.0 per share. We also estimate a value of HKD74 per share for Tencent’s strategic investments. We calculate the value by using the market cap multiplied by ownership of listed companies in which Tencent has made investments, and the historical transaction value multiplied by ownership of unlisted companies in which Tencent has invested. Our new target price of HKD435.0 for Tencent implies 39x 2019E and 30x 2020E PE under non-GAAP measure. Maintain BUY. Fig.1. Tencent: SOTP model — discount rate of 11.0%, terminal growth rate of 3.0% (RMBbn) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Net revenue 402.7 510.4 636.8 767.9 887.7 993.8 NPV of FCF 1,154.5 1,153.5 1,106.8 1,031.0 902.7 745.9 Discounted terminal value 1,792.8 1,990.0 2,208.9 2,451.9 2,721.6 3,021.0 Tencent core valuation 2,947.4 3,143.5 3,315.8 3,483.0 3,624.3 3,766.9 Number of shares (diluted, mn) 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 9,494.0 Valuation per share (HKD) - core business 361.0 385.0 406.1 426.6 443.9 461.4 Valuation per share (HKD) - investment 74.0 77.7 81.6 85.7 89.9 94.4 Valuation per share (HKD) - Tencent 435.0 462.7 487.7 512.2 533.8 555.8 Source: Huatai HK Research estimates 1 April 2019 2 Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) Business segment forecast Our total revenue forecasts for 2019/2020/2021 are largely unchanged, and we forecast the Other segment (mainly payment & fintech and cloud businesses) will lead revenue growth and to become the largest revenue contributor by the end of 2019. We continue to believe Tencent’s market-leading position in the online gaming and social networking segments remains solid. We forecast Tencent total revenue to grow by 28.8/26.8/24.8% in 2019/2020/2021 to reach RMB636.8bn in 2021. We expect Tencent to deliver 17.6% earnings CAGR during 2019-2021, with net income reaching RMB127.9bn in 2021. Online games, social networking services (SNS), online advertising and Other revenue accounted for 33.3%, 23.2%, 18.6%, and 24.9% of total revenue in 2018, respectively, and we expect them to contribute 27.3%, 22.7%, 19.4% and 30.6% of total revenue in 2019. Fig.2. Tencent: total revenue Fig.3. Tencent: revenue mix SNS Online games (RMBbn) (%) SNS Online games Online advertising Other Online advertising Other (yoy%) 700 Growth (rhs) 60 100 11.3 90 18.2 600 24.9 30.6 50 80 17.8 35.7 17.0 500 70 40 18.6 60 19.4 400 19.3 30 50 46.6 41.2 300 40 33.3 27.3 20 23.1 200 30 20 100 10 10 24.3 23.6 23.2 22.7 21.9 0 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Note: SNS – social networking services Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates We lower our earnings forecast for 2019/2020/2021 by 4.2/4.8/1.5% to RMB59.9/110.7/136.3bn, mainly to reflect: 1) greater revenue contribution from new initiative businesses such as cloud and payment still need time to turn profitable; and 2) a lower margin assumption for the VAS business segment as the revenue contribution from the lower-margin digital content business looks set to increase. We expect the content investment for its video business to be more closely controlled in 2019 than in previous years. In 4Q18, Tencent started to control the cost of less-effective marketing, and we think the company still has enough room to improve operating leverage. We expect S&M and G&A expenses as a percentage of total revenue to decrease from 7.7% and 13.3% respectively in 2018 to 7.2% and 12.3% in 2019. 1 April 2019 3 Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) Fig.4. Tencent: net income forecast Fig.5. Tencent: GPM (RMBbn) (yoy%) (%) Overall GPM VAS GPM 160 Net income Growth (rhs) 70 80 Online advertising GPM Other GPM 70 140 60 60 120 50 50 100 40 40 80 30 30 60 20 20 40 10 10 20 0 0 0 1Q16 2Q18 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2Q16 Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research estimates Note: VAS – value added services Source: Company data, Huatai HK Research Fig.6. Huatai estimates vs Bloomberg consensus (RMBmn) 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue Huatai estimates - previous 400,781.0 511,994.0 635,606.3 Huatai estimates - new 402,678.8 510,397.6 636,766.1 % difference (new vs previous) 0.5 (0.3) 0.2 Bloomberg consensus 400,841.0 510,215.0 629,601.0 % difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) 0.5 0.0 1.1 Gross income Huatai estimates - previous 183,006.0 232,413.0 282,972.7 Huatai estimates - new 173,896.5 214,844.5 264,371.3 % difference (new vs previous) (5.0) (7.6) (6.6) Bloomberg consensus 175,263.7 220,048.8 264,199.6 % difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) (0.8) (2.4) 0.1 Operating income Huatai estimates - previous 118,252.0 147,258.0 176,082.7 Huatai estimates - new 112,269.2 137,856.1 169,255.0 % difference (new vs previous) (5.1) (6.4) (3.9) Bloomberg consensus 89,719.8 113,201.0 137,367.0 % difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) 0.8 (1.4) 0.4 Net income Huatai estimates - previous 93,775.0 116,295.0 138,373.3 Huatai estimates - new 89,881.1 110,699.6 136,281.3 % difference (new vs previous) (4.2) (4.8) (1.5) Bloomberg consensus 89,719.8 113,201.0 137,367.0 % difference (Huatai estimates vs consensus) 0.2 (2.2) (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Huatai HK Research estimates 1 April 2019 4 Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) Fig.7. Tencent: segment forecast (RMBbn) 2019E 2020E 2021E VAS revenue 201.5 229.4 259.8 SNS revenue 91.5 111.7 27.5 yoy% 26.0 22.0 21.7 Online game revenue 110.0 117.7 29.2 yoy% 5.8 7.0 7.5 Mobile games 61.4 17.0 17.3 yoy% 15.0 18.0 14.9 PC games 12.6 12.1 11.9 yoy% (10.4) (5.9) (4.0) Online advertising revenue 78.0 98.7 121.7 yoy% 34.2 26.6 23.3 Other revenue 123.2 182.3 255.3 yoy% 58.0 48.0 40.0 Total revenue 402.7 510.4 636.8 yoy% 28.8 26.8 24.8 Gross income 173.9 214.8 264.4 GPM (%) 43.2 42.1 41.5 Operating income 112.3 137.9 169.3 OPM (%) 27.9 27.0 26.6 Net income 89.9 110.7 136.3 yoy% 14.2 23.2 23.1 NPM (%) 22.3 21.7 21.4 Source: Huatai HK Research estimates Online games (33.3% of 2018 total revenue) With the speed of online game license approval picking up in China, we expect more highly-anticipated titles from Tencent to be released from 2Q19 onwards.
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