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China’s Wireless Communications Market April, 2007 International, Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Relations Government of Alberta China’s Wireless Communications Market April, 2007 About this Report This report is primarily based on information from public sources – both English and Chinese. We have made our best effort to select information from the most current and credible sources, information that has been validated through multiple channels and that is consistent with our experience of the Chinese market. However, we do not guarantee against the possibility that some of the information in this report is inaccurate or no longer valid. All monetary figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. For conversion rates, we used Bank of Canada exchange rates as of February 21, 2007 (specifically CAD$1 = 6.68 renminbi and CAD$1 = USD$0.86). Alberta China Office Canadian Embassy Tel: (86-10) 6532-3536 19 Dongzhimenwai Dajie Fax: (86-10) 6532-1304 Chaoyang District, Beijing 100600 www.albertachina.com People's Republic of China This report was prepared for the Government of Alberta by GrokChina, LLC. GrokChina LLC 63 Wall Street #1206 Grok specialises in helping western companies do business in New York, NY 10005 China through market and consumer research, and consulting + 1 917 498 8900 services. China Central Place, www.grokchina.com Building 15 #802, 89 Jianguo Road, Chaoyang Beijing, China 100025 Page 1 of 39 China’s Wireless Communications Market April, 2007 Table of Contents Market Overview 3 General Description 3 Key Indicators for Mobile Operators 4 Regional Markets 5 The National Telecom Operators 8 New Standards, New Technology and Operator Accountability Shape the Basic Industry 10 Third Generation Network (3G) 10 Wireless Local Loop (WLL) – PHS / Little Smart / Xiao Ling Tong 12 SCDMA/ Village Wireless Communications/ Da Ling Tong 13 China's Mobile Multimedia Broadcasting (CMMB) Industrial Standard 13 A Chinese WAPI Standard 14 WIMAX 14 Greater Control over Mobile Services 14 Other Emerging Technologies 15 Relevant Sectors 16 Handset Market 16 Wireless Value-Added Services (WVAS) 16 Wireless LANs 19 Near and Long Term Prospects 19 Key Contacts 21 In China 21 Canadian Government 21 Appendix 1: Main Players in Related Segments of the Wireless Communications Markets 23 Value Added Services Players 23 Device Manufacturers 27 Telecom Equipment Providers 29 Telecom Operators 31 End Notes 35 Page 2 of 39 China’s Wireless Communications Market April, 2007 Market Overview General Description - With the fourth largest GDP globally, and 1.3 billion Compared to Canada, China has roughly: consumers, the Chinese market is compelling. On the other hand, per capita income barely exceeds 40 x the population $2,000 per year and which products and services succeed is determined by the unique preferences of this culturally and economically distinct people. 2.5 x the GDP Success can be elusive in China but wireless th communications is one of China’s success stories. 1/20 the per capita income - The rapid emergence of the world’s second largest online community, with over 130 million users, 23 x more mobile subscribers in 2006 represents one of the most dramatic developments in China. This online community is expected to 5 x the mobile services revenue in 2006 surpass the 210 million Internet users in the US by 2009.1 Moreover, roughly 52 million people currently have broadband access. Broadband 3 x the mobile services profits in 2006 adoption grew by over 50% in 2005 and almost 40% in 2006 – a development watched keenly by both the the average revenue per unit for mobile 20% services* online and mobile value added services industries.2 the average minutes of usage for - In 2006, China’s telecommunications sector invested 20% mobile services in 2006 $33 billion on infrastructure, up 7.7% year on year.3 Much of the development of China’s infrastructure 60% the wireless data ARPU in 2006 has leapfrogged the West. Growth within the fixed line business is slowing. The biggest telecom story *per calendar month - 2006 in China is mobile services. - With 461 million subscribers, mobile services generated more than $65 billion in revenue and $12 billion in profits in 2006. The number of mobile subscribers has grown dramatically – more than 17% per year in both 2005 and 2006. The Ministry of Information Industry (MII) estimates that over 35% of the Chinese population has a cell phone and many Chinese have more than one.4 - There are two dominant mobile operators in China – China Mobile Limited and China Unicom Limited. As of the end of 2006, their combined number of mobile subscribers had reached 443.6 million, accounting for 96% of the country's total mobile subscriber base.5 - 407.1 million GSM users (301.2 million for China Mobile and 105.9 million for China Unicom) and 36.5 million CDMA subscribers.6 - China Unicom operates both a CDMA and GSM network. China Mobile currently only operates a GSM network. - China Mobile, with more than 300 million mobile customers, is not only the largest mobile operator in China, but also in the world. It is five times larger than second-place Cingular Wireless. Page 3 of 39 China’s Wireless Communications Market April, 2007 Key Indicators for Mobile Operators Revenuei - China's wireless market revenue, including related segments such as valued added services, is projected to reach $232 billion by 2008.7 - Revenues for mobile service in 2006 are estimated to exceed $65 billion dollars. - China Mobile’s revenue in 2006 was $42.7 billion, a 21% increase from 2005.8 - China Unicom’s (2006E) revenue was $14 billion.iii,9 - The remainder is revenue earned by small regional operators. Average Revenue per Unit (ARPU) - In January 2006, overall ARPU for mobile services in China was $9.88 per calendar month (pcm)ii (compared to roughly $50 in Canada). ARPU for fixed line communications in the same timeframe in China was $9.64.10 - ARPU for pre- and post-paid customers are significantly polarized – post-paid ARPU was $23.46 pcm, while ARPU for pre-paid customers was $7.87 pcm.11 - In October 2006, China Mobile reportediii ARPU for its 300 million customers of $13.32 pcm.12 - Although it represents a comparatively small percentage of China Mobile’s total customer base, it’s worthwhile to note that ARPU on China Mobile’s contract customers is significantly higher: roughly $27.69 pcm. - China Unicom, the country’s other dominant mobile operator, reportediii ARPU for the same period $7.44 pcm for its 106 million GSM customers and $10.00 pcm for its 36 million CDMA customers.13 - The allocation of 3G licenses – which will be discussed later in this brief – is expected to directly impact value added services (VAS) available through mobile devices. This is hoped that 3G and VAS will turn around falling ARPU figures and buoy already healthy profit margins within the industry. Minutes of Usage (MOU) - Operators saw an average of 300 minutes of usage per month (MOU) for mobile services in 2006. - As of October 2006, China Mobile reported 374 MOUiii for its GSM customers. - As of October 2006, China Unicom reportediii average MOU of 233.4 for its GSM customers and 274.8 MOU for its CDMA customers. i Note that revenue figures for value added services, handsets, and other related markets are not reflected in the mobile services market figures. Current and forecast revenues for those markets can be found in the related sections of this brief. ii Blended across CDMA and GSM subscribers across all operators iii Based on January to September 2006 results. Page 4 of 39 China’s Wireless Communications Market April, 2007 Regional Markets - Much of China’s wealth has historically Regional Mobile Penetration in 200614 been concentrated in China’s eastern seaboard cities. Fearing that social 100.00% instability will increase due to the growing income gap between the rich 90.00% cities on the eastern coast, and the 80.00% western and central regions – particularly rural areas – the Chinese 70.00% government has made concerted and sustained investments in developing 60.00% 52.80% infrastructure, improving education, and 50.00% encouraging commerce in secondary regions and rural areas. This has also 40.00% extended to significant projects aimed at 26.90% 27.40% 30.00% improving fixed-line and mobile telephony infrastructure and data 20.00% networking / Internet access. 10.00% - In terms of mobile services, network 0.00% infrastructure and handsets, regional Western Region Central Regions Eastern Coast markets account for the majority of growth. This is in large part due to a (incl. Beijing and concerted strategy by China Mobile to Shanghai) recruit rural subscribers. Primary and Secondary Cities - In Canada, there are five metropolitan areas with more than 1 million people. In China there are ninety four. There are nine Chinese cities with populations larger than Toronto: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Wuhan, Tianjin and Chongqing.iv - Calgary, if it were in China, would be China’s 90th largest metropolitan area. Of the eighty nine cities larger than Calgary, eighty four have names that few people outside of China would recognize. - Historically, western businesses entering China have concentrated on Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou and Shenzhen, a bias that is now rapidly being corrected by western and local businesses alike. In many industries, secondary and tertiary cities are the new primary targets. For example, Chongqing, Wuhan, and Xi’an are large urban areas with increasing wealth. iv The population of “cities” in China is a surprisingly complex question since there are several administrative units and political entities to define metropolitan areas. The above list is provided by the United Nations (http://esa.un.org/unup/) using a narrow definition of city.
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