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Q1 2020 TEMPLATE.Xlsm Salt Lake City Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2020 including the impact of COVID-19 on the local economy Today's Market… Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $400,000 14% $350,000 12% $300,000 10% $250,000 8% $200,000 6% $150,000 4% $100,000 $50,000 2% $0 0% 2011 Q1 Q3 2012 Q1 Q3 2013 Q1 Q3 2014 Q1 Q3 2015 Q1 Q3 2016 Q1 Q3 2017 Q1 Q3 2018 Q1 Q3 2019 Q1 Q3 2020 Q1 Local Price Trends Price Activity Salt Lake City U.S. Local Trend Current Median Home Price (2020 Q1) $372,100 $272,433 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2020 Q1) 12.3% 7.7% Prices continue to grow relative to last year 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2020 Q1) 30.7% 18.1% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $87,300 $41,733 Gains in the last 3 years have extended the 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $154,200 $96,500 trend of positive price growth after the recession 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $181,600 $114,500 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Salt Lake City U.S. Conforming Loan Limit** $600,300 $726,525 Most buyers in this market have access to FHA Loan Limit $388,700 $726,525 government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 62% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made on January 1st 2019. Local NAR Leadership The Salt Lake City market is part of region 11 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada. The 2020 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 11 is David R. Tina. Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $250,000 $200,000 $161,860 $150,000 $100,000 $45,700 $50,000 $0 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1 2017 Q1 2019 Q1 Total Equity Gained** through 2020 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity SaltLakeCity U.S. Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $45,700 $23,185 3-year (12-quarter)* $101,182 $52,978 Price appreciation and principle payments 5-year (20-quarter)* $150,799 $87,425 in the last 3 years have boosted total equity 7-year (28 quarters)* $183,740 $120,351 growth since the recession 9-year (36 quarters)* $210,616 $138,556 *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity Drivers of Local Supply and Demand… Local Economic Outlook Salt Lake City U.S. Not 12-month Job Change (Mar) 18,900 Comparable Employment growth has eased, but remains Not positive 12-month Job Change (Feb) 22,400 Comparable Not Unemployment has risen since the same 36-month Job Change (Mar) 53,400 Comparable period last year, but Salt Lake City's labor market has been more resilient than the Current Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.0% 4.4% national average Year-ago Unemployment Rate 3.0% 3.8% Local employment growth is strong 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 2.5% 1.3% compared to other markets Share of Total Employment by Industry Salt Lake City Area U.S. Natural Resourc 6.6% 49.4 Natural R5.3% Natural Natural Resources/M Resources/ #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A ining/Constru Mining/Con ct Construction struct Government #N/AGovernment #N/A ConstruOtherc 8.5% 5.3% 8.5% 6.6% Manufacturi 15.4% Manufacturin 16.4% Services Manufacturing 8.5% 59.5ng Manufac 1.9% g 8.5% 3.9% 1.9% Leisure & Trade/TransportOther a 21.7% 141.6 Trade/Tr 14.1% Services Hospitality Trade/Transp Information3.2% 3.1% 20.510.5% Informa1.9% Leisure & Trade/Trans ortation/Utilit portation/Uti FinancialHospitality Activ 8.5% 57.4 Financia14.1% ies 10.0% lities 14.1% Prof. & Busine 17.3% 118.7 21.7% Professi14.1% Educ. &Educ. Heal &t 12.5% 82.8 EducationalEducatio16.3% Health Information & Health Financial Information Leisure Services& Hos 10.0% 46.4 3.1% Leisure 10.5% Activities 1.9% Financial Services Other Service12.5%s 3.2% 22.6 Other S 3.9% 14.1% Prof. & Activities 16.3% Government 16.4%Business 108.38.5% 101.1% Governm15.4%Professional 97.5% Services & Business #N/A #N/A17.3% #N/A #N/A Services #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 14.1% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Salt Lake City Area (Mar - 2020) Goods Producing NA Information 1,300 Natural Resources/Mining/Construction 3,200 Financial Activities 1,300 Natural Resources and Mining NA Prof. & Business Services -4,700 Construction NA Educ. & Health Services 1,700 Manufacturing 1,300 Leisure & Hospitality 6,700 Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services 400 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 6,000 Government 5,200 State Economic Activity Index Utah U.S. -2.7% 1.2% The economy of Utah is still in recession, 12-month change (2020 - Mar) but improved modestly from last month's - NA 7.0% 18.57% change 36-month change (2020 - Mar) New Housing Construction Local Fundamentals Salt Lake City U.S. 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through The current level of construction is 18.2% 4,711 not comparable Mar above the long-term average Production above trend for an extended 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit 3,987 not comparable period of time could cause prices to Building Permits moderate as inventory is built up. Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar) Construction continues to decline from last -5.4% 5.5% 12-month sum vs. a year ago year Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Salt Lake City U.S. Ratio for 2019 14.3% 16.0% Weak by local standards and could weigh Ratio for 2020 Q1 14.2% 14.6% on demand Historical Average14.0% 18.4% More affordable than most markets Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 Median Home Price to Income Salt Lake City U.S. Ratio for 2019 2.5 2.8 The price-to-income ratio is high by historic Ratio for 2020 Q1 2.6 2.7 standards and getting worse Historical Average 2.2 2.7 Affordable compared to most markets Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280 6.0% 240 5.0% 200 4.0% 160 3.0% 120 2.0% 80 40 1.0% 0 0.0% Q3 2016 Q1 Q3 2017 Q1 Q3 2018 Q1 Q3 2019 Q1 Q3 2020 Q1 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) The first quarter of the year mostly encompassed a pre-pandemic economy that was characterized by low unemployment and a robust economy. Nevertheless, as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, mortgage rates reached a then-historical low in March of 2020 fueling an increase in refinance activities. Specifically, at the end of the first quarter, mortgage rates declined 90 basis points compared to a year earlier. According to the mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 3.51 percent in Q1 2020 from 4.37 percent in Q1 2019. Looking ahead, NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average 3.20 percent for 2020. REALTOR® Price Expectations REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Source: NAR REALTOR® Price Expectations Utah U.S. 2020 - Mar 4.3% -0.5% REALTORS® expect higher price growth in Utah than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. Their price expectations are also Prior 12 months 2.7% 2.4% higher than a year ago. Geographic Coverage for this Report The Salt Lake City area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Salt Lake City metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Salt Lake County and Tooele County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/bulletins_default/.
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