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Q2 2009 Used-Car Outlook

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Q2 2009 Used-Car Outlook Chicago Auto Outlook TM Used Vehicle Market Edition Volume 4, Number 2 Released June, 2009 RESULTS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA RETAIL USED LIGHT VEHICLE MARKET Area Used Vehicle Market Shows Signs of Stabilizing As predicted in the previous release of Chicago AREA RETAIL USED LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Edition, the used vehi- YTD THRU APRIL cle market has been a relative bright spot during Registrations % Change Market Share the first four months of this year. Retail used light 2008 2009 '08 TO '09 2008 2009 vehicle registrations thru April of this year were TOTAL 145,785 125,594 -13.8% 125,594, down 13.8% versus the same period a year earlier, compared to a 37.6% drop in the new vehicle market. Cars 84,124 68,308 -18.8% 57.7% 54.4% Light Trucks 61,661 57,286 -7.1% 42.3% 45.6% The relative strength in used vehicle sales is mostly attributable to the severe economic down- Big Three 94,864 80,690 -14.9% 65.1% 64.2% turn, which has resulted in rising unemployment Japanese 33,563 29,360 -12.5% 23.0% 23.4% and stagnant incomes. Combined with the belea- guered state of household finances, vehicle shop- European 13,209 11,767 -10.9% 9.1% 9.4% pers have become intensely price-conscious, Korean 4,149 3,777 -9.0% 2.8% 3.0% shifting purchase intentions from new to used vehicles. In addition, as discussed in the recent Figures exclude private party transactions. release of the new vehicle newsletter, pent up demand is accelerating as the median age of QUARTERLY LIGHT TRUCK SHARE OF USED VEHICLE MARKET vehicles on the road increases and new vehicle sales fall well below scrappage rates. This height- 50.0% ened “replacement demand” combined with the Trendline weak economy have provided a boost to the used 45.0% vehicle market. 40.0% We expect the relative strength in used vehicle 35.0% sales to continue for at least the next 12 months, 30.0% as the economy should be slow to emerge from the recession, and aggressive discounting on new 25.0% vehicles abates. However, dwindling supplies of late model used vehicles could put a damper on used vehicle sales by the Summer of 2010. Q1 '05 Q2 '05 Q3 '05 Q4 '05 Q1 '06 Q2 '06 Q3 '06 Q4 '06 Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 AREA RETAIL USED VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS-THREE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE (MAY ’07 THRU APRIL ’09) 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 Trendline 15000 10000 5000 0 Jul-07 Jul-08 May-07Jun-07 Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08 Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09 Page 2 Chicago Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition MARKET SCOREBOARD Suzuki Posts Largest Increase in Area Used Vehicle Market The graph below shows the percent change in used retail light vehicle registrations during the first four months of this year versus the same period a year earlier for the top 30 selling brands. Suzuki registrations increased 31.6%. Mercedes, Jeep, Infiniti, Subaru, and Mazda posted small increases. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive PERCENT CHANGE IN USED LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS YTD 2009 THRU APRIL VS. YTD 2008 Suzuki 31.6% Mercedes 2.9% Jeep 2.8% Infiniti 2.4% Subaru 0.8% Mazda 0.1% Kia -0.4% Acura -6.2% Volkswagen -8.1% Cadillac -9.0% Volvo -9.9% Nissan -10.0% Lincoln -10.8% BMW -10.9% Lexus -11.6% Hyundai -12.3% Dodge -12.8% Chrysler -14.6% Buick -14.6% Ford -14.9% Mitsubishi -15.5% Chevrolet -16.8% Toyota/Scion -17.9% Audi -18.0% Saturn -18.1% Mercury -18.1% GMC -19.3% Honda -19.8% Land Rover -20.1% Pontiac -23.6% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Released June 2009 Page 3 MARKET TRENDS Used Vehicle Market Easily Out-Performs New Over Past Three Years Used Market Declined 11.6% during first four months of ’09 vs. ’06; New off 36.6% As mentioned on the first page, the Chi- PERCENT CHANGE IN CHICAGO AREA cago Area used vehicle market has repre- sented a relative bright spot so far this USED AND NEW RETAIL year. And as clearly illustrated in the table LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS and graph that appear on this page, it’s a YTD 2009 (THRU APRIL) VS. YTD 2006 trend that has evolved over the past sev- eral years. YTD '06 YTD '09 thru April thru April % change As shown on the table to the right, used USED TOTAL 142,147 125,594 -11.6% vehicle registrations in the area declined Cars 82,952 68,308 -17.7% 11.6% during the first four months of this Light Trucks 59,195 57,286 -3.2% year versus the same period in 2006. New vehicle registrations dropped 36.6% over the same time periods. Car market share 58.4% 54.4% -4.0 Car market share in the new and used ve- NEW TOTAL 98,347 62,322 -36.6% hicle markets has followed similar paths Cars 52,445 30,847 -41.2% over the past three years. Used vehicle car Light Trucks 45,902 31,475 -31.4% market share declined four points during the first four months of this year versus the same period in 2006, while new car market Car market share 53.3% 49.5% -3.8 share declined 3.8 points. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive CHICAGO AREA USED AND NEW RETAIL LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS YTD THRU APRIL - 2006 THRU 2009 90,000 Used Cars 80,000 70,000 Used Trucks 60,000 50,000 New Cars 40,000 New Trucks 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 YTD '06 YTD '07 YTD '08 YTD '09 Used Cars 82,952 80,776 84,124 68,308 Used Trucks 59,195 59,233 61,661 57,286 New Cars 52,445 49,597 53,392 30,847 New Trucks 45,902 45,327 46,559 31,475 Page 4 Chicago Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition IDENTIFYING HOT POCKETS OF AREA USED VEHICLE MARKET Three Year Old Vehicle Market Share Increases The graphs on this page provide a view CHANGE IN AREA USED VEHICLE SEGMENT MARKET SHARE of the changing composition of the Chi- YTD 2009 THRU APRIL VS. YTD 2008 cago Area used vehicle market. The graph on the right shows the change in market share for 18 primary segments Compact SUV 0.9 during the first four months of this year Mini Van 0.9 versus the same period a year earlier. Mid Size Luxury SUV 0.8 For segments at the top of the graph, Mid Size Crossover SUV 0.7 used vehicle market share increased. Mid Size SUV 0.3 Although the increases were relatively Full Size Van 0.1 small, Compact SUV and Mini Van mar- Luxury Car 0.1 ket share moved higher. Full Size Luxury SUV 0.0 Entry Car 0.0 Vehicles two years old or less ac- Near Luxury Car 0.0 counted for a smaller share of the area Full Size Pickup 0.0 market, with market share declining Sports Car -0.1 from 34.4% during the first four months Full Size SUV -0.1 of last year to 32.3% this year. Three Compact Pickup -0.1 year old vehicle market share increased Sport Compact Car -0.3 from 17.4% to 19.6%. Standard Mid Size Car -0.7 Sub Compact Car -0.9 Source: AutoCount data from Experian Large Mid Size Car -1.6 Automotive. -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Change in market share CHICAGO AREA USED VEHICLE MARKET SHARE BY AGE OF VEHICLE, YTD 2008 AND YTD 2009 THRU APRIL ONLY INCLUDES VEHICLES 8 YEARS OLD OR NEWER 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 8 yrs. old 7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. old < 1 yr. YTD '08 8.0% 7.8% 8.4% 9.0% 15.1% 17.4% 14.5% 16.8% 3.1% YTD '09 7.5% 8.1% 7.9% 9.4% 15.2% 19.6% 13.7% 16.5% 2.1% Source: AutoCount, an Experian Company. Only includes retail used vehicle sales at new vehicle franchised and independent used vehicle dealers. Released June 2009 Page 5 TOP SELLING MODELS IN AREA USED VEHICLE MARKET (VEHICLES NEWER THAN FIVE YEARS OLD) ’08 Chevrolet Impala Best Selling Car in Area Market; ’05 Jeep Grand Cherokee is Truck Leader The table below shows the top 25 selling car and light truck models (with specific model years) during the first four months of this year. (Note: only includes vehicles newer than five years old.) For cars, the 2008 Chevrolet Impala was the leader, while the 2005 Jeep Grand Cherokee was the best-selling light truck. The graph below shows the top 20 selling models newer than five years old. Chevrolet Impala was first, followed by Jeep Grand Cherokee, and Chevrolet TrailBlazer. Source: AutoCount, an Experian Company. TOP 25 SELLING CARS AND LIGHT TRUCKS IN CHICAGO AREA USED RETAIL MARKET (YTD '09 THRU APRIL) Cars Light Trucks Rank Model and Model Year Registrations Rank Model and Model Year Registrations 1 2008 Chevrolet Impala 561 1 2005 Jeep Grand Cherokee 573 2 2006 Chevrolet Impala 482 2 2006 Jeep Grand Cherokee 537 3 2006 BMW 3-Series 395 3 2006 Jeep Commander 461 4 2007 Toyota Camry 393 4 2005 Chevrolet TrailBlazer 420 5 2006 Pontiac G6 386 5 2008 Chevrolet TrailBlazer 407 6 2008 Dodge Avenger 370 6 2005 Chevrolet Equinox 373 7 2006 Nissan Altima 359 7 2006 Chevrolet TrailBlazer 370 8 2006 Honda Accord 356 8 2006 Jeep Liberty 356 9 2005 Chevrolet Malibu 354 9 2006 Dodge Caravan 352 10 2008 Ford Focus 353 10 2008 Ford Escape 351 11 2008 Chevrolet Cobalt 352 11 2006 Ford F-Series 342 12 2008 Chevrolet Malibu 350 12 2006 Chrysler T & C 340 13 2005 Chevrolet Impala 311 13 2008 Dodge Caravan 315 14 2008 Chrysler Sebring 285 14 2008 Chrysler T & C 300 15 2008 Hyundai Sonata 282 15 2005 Dodge Caravan 298 16 2005 Nissan Altima 281 16 2008 Jeep Grand Cherokee 286 17 2006 Chrysler 300 281 17 2004 Chevrolet TrailBlazer 265 18 2006 Dodge Charger 278 18 2008 Ford Edge 264 19 2008 Pontiac G6 275 19 2008 Chevrolet Uplander 263 20 2007 Honda Accord 272 20 2006 Chrysler Pacifica 258 21 2006 BMW 5-Series 271 21 2005 Ford F-Series 250 22 2007 Chevrolet Impala 261 22 2007 Dodge Caravan 245 23 2007 Dodge Caliber 257 23 2005 Chrysler Pacifica 234 24 2007 Pontiac G6 254 24 2004 Ford F-Series 233 25 2005 Chevrolet Cobalt 252 25 2007 Ford Explorer 231 TOP 20 SELLING MODELS IN AREA RETAIL USED MARKET-YTD ’09 (Only includes vehicles five years old or newer) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Pontiac G6 Ford Focus Ford Escape Jeep LibertyChrysler 300Honda Civic Toyota Camry Ford F-Series Nissan AltimaHonda AccordFord Explorer Toyota Corolla Dodge Caravan Chrysler T & C Chevrolet Impala Chevrolet Malibu Chevrolet Cobalt Pontiac Grand Prix Chevrolet TrailBlazer Jeep Grand Cherokee Source: AutoCount, an Experian Company.
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