Retail Food and general retail Over the next five years Asia and Australasia will deliver the strongest Key findings retail volume growth of any region, averaging 4.6% annually. With sales of almost US$7 trillion in 2014, Asia is also comfortably the world’s • Rising incomes mean largest regional retail market, with China accounting for much of this. that Asia and Australasia However, this outlook comes with a degree of risk attached. Decelerating will lead the world in 4.6% growth in China, weakness in Japan and mixed signals from India will all terms of retail volume weigh on the regional outlook. Large players are now showing signs of growth, averaging 4.6%. switching emphasis to smaller Asian markets, notably Indonesia and Vietnam, with the former supported by strong demographic and income • Deceleration in markets growth and the latter opening up more to foreign retail investments. like China is prompting a rethink as retailers refocus on core domestic Regulatory issues and a strategic refocus on domestic markets have also markets. prompted a rethink among global retailers. As the likes of Carrefour, • Regulation is becoming more Metro and Tesco16 seek to recapture revenues in their core home markets prominent in light of food safety issues. they have divested or rationalised operations in emerging Asia. Asian retail markets are also evolving quickly, with e-commerce channels showing particularly strong growth. Indeed, declining investment in physical stores from firms like Walmart has been replaced by a greater commitment to investing in fast-growing e-commerce channels.17 8 Figure 5: Retail sales of food in Asia and Australasia (US$ trillion) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figures for 2014 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates. 10 PwC Retail The global retail landscape is evolving investment in flagship retail outlets, Hypermarkets, and nowhere is the pace of change notably by fast fashion retailers and faster than in Asia, where convergence technology firms like Apple. In the case supermarkets and innovation in e-commerce and of markets like China, the development and convenience m-commerce has forced a rethink in the of flagship stores is moving further and channel strategies of key retail players. further inland towards tier three and stores The Internet has tipped the balance of four cities, with retail brands hoping to power in the favour of consumers. As use such stores to generate a buzz barriers between physical and virtual among Chinese consumers. Property channels blur, retailers are exploring consultants CBRE singled out second- multichannel solutions—such as tier city Chengdu as the world’s most click-and-collect stores, pop-up shops or active retail development market in using beacons (which can send 2012.18 In India, too, the relaxation of notifications of offers to nearby FDI laws around single brand retail smartphones)—to drive engagement. stores has allowed the development of While m-commerce and the threat of well-sited flagships in key city “showrooming” (where users test locations. The likes of H&M, IKEA and products in-store but buy online) Marks & Spencer have been quick to remain a threat to physical stores, seek market entry.19 mobile devices are also acting as a hybrid channel to drive footfall by Rising incomes in many parts of the allowing consumers to locate stores and region mean that the dramatic shift interact through apps, beacons or QR towards discount retail channels codes. taking place in regions like Western Europe is not as apparent in Asia, A global drive toward convenience although it is catching on. A price- channels is already well established in sensitive public in Japan means that Asia with the likes of Japan, Taiwan 100 Yen shops, led by Daiso, already and South Korea setting a global proliferate but bargain-hungry Chinese precedent for small, well-located consumers are also joining the fray. outlets. The declining role of the iResearch Consulting Group reported hypermarket has therefore had a muted in June 2014 that online discount impact in Asia. Amid the overarching retailing in China has experienced shift towards convenience and online triple digit annual growth since 2008, shopping there is still substantial although the sales figures remain comparatively small, forecast to be just US$18 billion by 2016.20 2015-16 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 11 Retail The truly compelling story in the Foreign investors are also region is aligned with the global reassessing India. Carrefour has shift towards online channels and decided to pull out since the majority away from physical stores. This has government, elected in May 2014,26 caught some foreign retailers flat has announced its opposition to FDI in footed. Despite pledging over 100 multi-brand retail. Carrefour had set store openings in China by 2015,21 up wholesale operations in the Walmart has controversially been country. Tesco may have been more closing underperforming stores fortunate. The UK retail giant signed there22 and has refocused more on a deal with Tata for US$140 million to investment in e-commerce, notably take 50% ownership of Trent—which through its majority stake in runs 16 hypermarkets—before the Yihaodian.23 Tesco has also election and has so far received consolidated in China by rolling its assurances that its investment will not operations into a minority stake in a be rolled back.27 Walmart ended its joint venture with China Resources own joint venture with Bharti Enterprise, which operates the Enterprises before the new CR Vanguard24 retail brand among government came to power, others. Joint ventures remain a key preferring to invest in its existing element to Chinese retail wholesale brand and in online investment with another key local operations. The rejection of multi- player—Sun Art Retail—majority brand foreign investment in India owned by French firm Auchan.25 comes as a significant blow to foreign Sun Art boasts a market share of retailers and will affect overall market 13.6% and a footprint of 273 development. Indian retail will hypermarket complexes across 25 remain fragmented, to the benefit of provinces and municipalities. the many small independent Auchan has a 51% stake in the businesses Mr Modi is seeking to holding company which owns a protect: there are more than 14 majority of Sun Art. million shops in India, with over 90% of them smaller than 50 square metres.28 Larger groups such as the Aditya Birla Group and Bharti Enterprises may rue the opportunity for a partner with deep pockets, and retail growth will be hampered by a lack of investment in infrastructure and logistics—benefits which it was anticipated foreign players would provide. 12 PwC Retail While far more developed than India’s, Foreign investors continue to be mainland tourists has encouraged Japan’s retail market is relatively attracted to Taiwan, where 7-Eleven has protests from local consumers. Chinese fragmented by developed-market a firm presence, trading as President retailers have also been looking to standards, although it is consolidating. Chain Store Corporation and expand into Hong Kong, an exercise Competition in the convenience-store dominating the convenience sector that is proving costly given the high sector will remain strong as the main together with FamilyMart. Carrefour, in rents (CBRE has ranked Hong Kong as players continue to expand their a joint venture with local partner the world’s most expensive location for operations at the expense of smaller Uni-President, remains a key player in retail rentals).33 The supermarket players. The leading player in the the stagnating Taiwanese supermarket sector is already heavily consolidated market is 7-Eleven with over 16,300 and hypermarket channel alongside RT with Wellcome and PARKnSHOP, the stores in February 2014, followed by Mart, a joint venture between a local respective subsidiaries of Jardine Lawson (11,600) and FamilyMart firm, Ruentex, and another French Matheson and Hutchison Whampoa, (10,500).29 Japan remains one of the retailer, Auchan. US firm Costco, a accounting for around 80% of most difficult retail markets for foreign wholesale-style warehouse club, has supermarket sales.34 operators to penetrate, with only been enjoying significant success in Walmart and Metro maintaining a Taiwan with ten warehouses, which are presence following exits by both reportedly among the firm’s most Carrefour and Tesco. profitable stores.31 Japanese retailers are now increasingly In Hong Kong the share of the retail targeting investments elsewhere in market accounted for by supermarket Asia. Aeon is already the region’s and department stores fell to about largest retailer, with over 250 20% in 2013,32 driven in part by companies operating over 18,000 convenience shopping, but also by stores across a range of formats in 14 retail tourism, with rising mainland Asian countries.30 visitors opting more for flagship stores and boutiques than grocers. The takeover of prime retail space by luxury retailers seeking to court 2015-16 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 13 Retail What are your expectations for market More recently, the buzz has been growth in packaged food over the next ‘rurban’ – smaller towns and rural In-depth interview with two years? Do you see a pick-up in markets that have developed urban consumer spending in the next few tastes. Do you see this as a distinct and Chitranjan Dar, quarters? new consumer category? In packaged foods, except for snack foods, Yes, the small town market – that is, towns Divisional Chief growth is in the range of 8-12%, down from with a population of 50,000 and below – Executive, ITC Limited, between 17% and 19%.